On the distribution of tree growth stresses

Summary A plane strain pure bending elastic model is used to predict stress states in a cylindrically orthotropic cylinder due to asymmetric strain distributions continously induced at the periphery. A general solution for the stress states related to each component of the strain distribution expanded in a Fourier series is given. Details of solutions for eleven representative tree species are given. Also the change of curvature of a stem caused by a measured peripheral strain distribution is computed for a given period of growth.     

Comparing the value of Southern Oscillation Index-based climate forecast methods for Canadian and US wheat producers

Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) based forecasting methods are compared to determine which method is more valuable to Canadian and US wheat producers. Using decision theory approach to valuing information, the more commonly used three-phase method of El Niño, La Niña, and other is compared to a five-phase system. Because of differences in growing season and yearly SOI classification schemes, two different three-phase methods are used. The five-phase system is based on the level and rate of change of the SOI over a 2 month period. Phases are consistently negative, consistently positive, rapidly falling, rapidly rising, and near zero. As expected, results vary by the method used. Winter wheat producers in Illinois place no value on either of the SOI-based forecasting systems. Producers at seven of the 13 sites prefer the five-phase method over either of the three-phase method (spring wheat producers in Manitoba, Alberta, North Dakota and South Dakota, along with winter wheat producers in Oklahoma, Texas, and Washington). The value of the five-phase approach is up to 70 times more valuable than the three-phase approach. Producers growing spring wheat in Saskatchewan and Montana, along with winter wheat producers in Ohio and Kansas value the three-phase approach more than the five-phase. In this case, the value of the three-phase system is up to two times more valuable than the five-phase system. Depending on expected price and region, the values of the SOI-based forecasts range from 0 to 22% of the value of perfect forecasts. In both absolute and percentage of perfect forecasts, producers in Oklahoma, Texas, Manitoba, Saskatchewan, and South Dakota value either system more than producers in the remaining regions. Economic value and distributional aspects of the value of climate forecasts have implications for producers, policy makers, and meteorologists. Finally, the results clearly suggest all producers will not prefer one forecast type. Forecasts need to be tailored to specific regions.     

改制毛竹林害虫虫情变动的探讨

改制前的毛竹林，每两年有一年无笋或少有笋、有几个月林内立竹上无叶，竹子上的害虫种类简单，危害不重，有些害虫少发生或不能发生；能发生或危害重的竹子害虫，在生活过程中，习性多少都发生一些变化，如竹织叶野螟有迁飞习性，毛笋泉蝇、毛竹黑叶蜂部分蛹有滞育习性，赭翅双叉端环野螟有同时以小幼虫和老熟幼虫越冬习性，以适应无笋、少叶的营养环境。改制后的毛竹林地被物挖锄，天敌资源锐减，竹林中年年有笋，立竹上终年披叶，使竹子害虫食物条件改善，竹子害虫种类逐年增加，害虫迁飞、滞育习性的比例逐年减少，危害逐年加重。