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991.
We consider the problem of forecasting future regional climate. Our method is based on blending different members of an ensemble of regional climate model (RCM) simulations while accounting for the discrepancies between these simulations, under present day conditions, and observational records for the recent past. To this end, we develop Bayesian space-time models that assess the discrepancies between climate model simulations and observational records. Those discrepancies are then propagated into the future to obtain blended forecasts of 21st century climate. The model allows for location-dependent spatial heterogeneities, providing local comparisons between the different simulations. Additionally, we estimate the different modes of spatial variability, and use the climate model-specific coefficients of the spatial factors for comparisons. We focus on regional climate model simulations performed in the context of the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). We consider, in particular, simulations from RegCM3 using three different forcings: NCEP, GFDL and CGCM3. We use simulations for two time periods: current climate conditions, covering 1971 to 2000, and future climate conditions under the SRES A2 emissions scenario, covering 2041 to 2070. We investigate yearly mean summer temperature for a domain in the South West of the United States. The results indicated the RCM simulations underestimate the mean summer temperature increase for most of the domain compared to our model.  相似文献   
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Purpose  

In situ contaminated sediment remediation through the addition of activated carbon has been proven to be an effective remediation technique. An amendment delivery system was developed to accurately place and inject a powdered activated carbon slurry. The system was set up to deliver a series of discrete injections over a rectangular grid with the objective to deliver 3% carbon (C) by dry weight to an inundated saturated sediment at a maximum sediment depth of 30 cm.  相似文献   
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This study determined the distribution and zoonotic potential of Giardia duodenalis assemblage types among canine and feline fecal samples from Ontario. The effectiveness of Giardia assemblage typing methods by sequencing the genes of small subunit ribosomal RNA (ssu-rRNA), β-giardin (bg), glutamate dehydrogenase (gdh), and triose phosphate isomerase (tpi) was evaluated simultaneously. From 2008 to 2010, 118 canine and 15 feline Giardia positive fecal samples were tested. The ssu-rRNA sequencing method typed 64% (75/118) and 87% (13/15) of the Giardia-positive canine and feline samples, respectively. Among the typeable samples, 68% (51/75) of canine samples contained G. duodenalis assemblage D and 31% (23/75) contained G. duodenalis assemblage C (both non-zoonotic assemblage types). Only 1% (1/75) of the typeable canine samples contained a potentially zoonotic assemblage B. In contrast, 100% (13/13) of the typeable feline samples contained potentially zoonotic assemblages A (n = 12) or B (n = 1).  相似文献   
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This study evaluated immune cell populations in pigs following weaning and vaccination for Mycoplasma hyopneumoniae. Piglets (n = 24) were weaned (day 0) at 16 (±1) days of age, and randomly assigned to the vaccination group (n = 16) or control group (n = 8). Complete blood cell counts, flow cytometry and serology were completed for blood samples collected on days 0 (within hours of weaning), 3, 7, 14, 30 and 60. The M. hyopneumoniae S:P ratios (sample optical density: positive control optical density) were negative in the vaccination group until days 30 and 60, when the S:P ratios were 1.3 and 1.0, respectively. Control animals remained serologically negative. The percentage of CD4+ T cells was less (P < 0.01) in control pigs than vaccinated pigs at day 3. In contrast, numbers of CD8+ and CD4+CD8+ T cells were greater (P < 0.01) in control pigs than in vaccinated pigs at days 3 and 7. After day 7, few differences in immune cell types were evident between the groups. Differences in lymphocyte populations could not be solely attributed to vaccination, due at least in part, to the confounding influence of weaning. It was difficult to distinguish the influence of vaccination from the impact of weaning on peripheral immune cell populations.  相似文献   
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