Agent-based land-use models: a review of applications

Agent-based modelling is an approach that has been receiving attention by the land use modelling community in recent years, mainly because it offers a way of incorporating the influence of human decision-making on land use in a mechanistic, formal, and spatially explicit way, taking into account social interaction, adaptation, and decision-making at different levels. Specific advantages of agent-based models include their ability to model individual decision-making entities and their interactions, to incorporate social processes and non-monetary influences on decision-making, and to dynamically link social and environmental processes. A number of such models are now beginning to appear—it is timely, therefore, to review the uses to which agent-based land use models have been put so far, and to discuss some of the relevant lessons learnt, also drawing on those from other areas of simulation modelling, in relation to future applications. In this paper, we review applications of agent-based land use models under the headings of (a) policy analysis and planning, (b) participatory modelling, (c) explaining spatial patterns of land use or settlement, (d) testing social science concepts and (e) explaining land use functions. The greatest use of such models so far has been by the research community as tools for organising knowledge from empirical studies, and for exploring theoretical aspects of particular systems. However, there is a need to demonstrate that such models are able to solve problems in the real world better than traditional modelling approaches. It is concluded that in terms of decision support, agent-based land-use models are probably more useful as research tools to develop an underlying knowledge base which can then be developed together with end-users into simple rules-of-thumb, rather than as operational decision support tools. This paper arises from research conducted as part of the UK Research Councils’ RELU Programme (award number RES-224-25-0102). RELU is funded jointly by the Economic and Social Research Council, the Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council and the Natural Environment Research Council, with additional funding from the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs and the Scottish Executive Environment and Rural Affairs Department.     

Predicting non‐native fish dispersal under conditions of climate change: case study in England of dispersal and establishment of pumpkinseed Lepomis gibbosus in a floodplain pond

Predictions of future climate change include shifts in patterns of precipitation, evapotranspiration and water run‐off, resulting in increased periods of drought as well as variability and intensity of rainfall events. In the United Kingdom, the non‐native North American sunfish, pumpkinseed Lepomis gibbosus (L.), is expected to benefit from these changes. We examine how hydrological variability induced by predicted changes in climate will affect the dispersal and spread of pumpkinseed in England by: (i) determining the relationship between discharge regime and pumpkinseed propagule pressure; (ii) examining a newly‐established pumpkinseed population following a flood event in 2007; and (iii) comparing the growth and life‐history traits of this new population with fish collected from the source population to demonstrate how the pumpkinseed's life‐history plasticity contributes to its success as a coloniser. Using Bayesian modelling, we determined that the number of pumpkinseed escapees is likely to increase with increasing discharge. The newly‐established pumpkinseed population showed fast juvenile growth, early age at maturity and small size at maturity. These traits differed significantly from the source population, specifically total length (TL) means at ages 1 and 2 were significantly greater in the new population, whereas TL at age 4 was significantly greater in the source population, and a significantly higher proportion of mature females were found at smaller size classes in the newly established pumpkinseed population. This study demonstrates the potential link between hydrological variability (current and future) and the dispersal of non‐native pumpkinseed, leading to the establishment of new populations.     

The potential of intercropping as an alternative land use system in temperate North America

The success of many intercropping systems in North America is attributable to the generation of a short term return from an agricultural crop during the early, unprofitable years of a longer term crop that is fruit, nuts or wood. This highly-efficient use of land and related profitability are important not only in the development of intercropping systems per se, but also in other applications which have tremendous potential independent of profitability. For example, intercropping can be effectively used during the establishment phases of hardwood plantations where it is essential to have a high level of weed control, the costs of which are often recovered with the agricultural production. Intercropping can also be used to grow trees rapidly and with a form that can be easily integrated into recreational or park situations, or urban fringe areas. In an urban context, intercropping can be used to grow trees in agricultural areas that are likely to be developed where traditional forestry options are not appropriate and the value of younger, thrifty trees may enhance property values far in excess of the cash value of the wood.     

The effect of cattle foot traffic on soil compaction in a silvo-pastoral system

In India, small farmers have generally found that the growing of eucalypts as a cash crop provides poor returns, and many have reverted to growing annual crops. Farmgate prices have been much lower than retail prices, due to the existence of middlemen, and retail prices have fallen to lower levels than expected as markets have become saturated. This article describes the situation in eastern Gujarant, where farmers sold their eucalypts directly to buyers at prices close to those in organised wood markets. An important reason for this unusual situation is the absence in Gujarat of controls on eucalyptus sales, which has helped producers to avoid dependence on rent-seeking intermediaries. The survey shows that growing eucalyptus can be a profitable activity for small farmers, given the right circumstances.     

果戈里大街沥青混凝土路面裂缝的原因与防治

针对哈尔滨市南岗区果戈里大街的路面设计、施工状况的调查,分析了沥青路面裂缝原因与几个因素的关系,并结合有关资料提出一些防治措施。     

Rheological Studies on the Reaction of Zein with Polyethylenemaleic Anhydride

There continues to be interest in developing solvent‐resistant articles from biobased renewable materials to successfully compete with petrochemical products. It was previously shown that reaction of zein with polyethylenemaleic anhydride (PEMA) provides articles that are solvent resistant. The gelation kinetics for the reaction of PEMA with zein was investigated rheologically to better understand this chemistry. The reaction of the nucleophilic groups on zein with the anhydrides on PEMA is the main cause for the gelation reaction. The gelation time was defined as being the point when the elastic modulus (G′) and viscous modulus (G″) cross. In this work, the rate of reaction, in terms of time to gelation, was studied in N,N‐dimethylformamide solution for which the amount of PEMA, the reaction temperature, and the overall reaction concentration were varied. Exponential relationships were found between the gelation time and % PEMA, temperature, and % solids, as well as between elastic modulus with either % PEMA or % solids. The concentration of PEMA had the largest impact on gelation time, for which going from 2.5% PEMA to 6% PEMA reduced the gelation time from 63,114 to 1,576 s. The temperature dependence of this gelation reaction was well described by an Arrhenius plot with an apparent activation energy of 50.5 kJ/mol.