Demonstrating freedom from disease using multiple complex data sources 2: case study--classical swine fever in Denmark

A method for quantitative evaluation of surveillance for disease freedom has been presented in the accompanying paper (Martin et al., 2007). This paper presents an application of the methods, using as an example surveillance for classical swine fever (CSF) in Denmark in 2005. A scenario tree model is presented for the abattoir-based serology component of the Danish CSF surveillance system, in which blood samples are collected in an ad hoc abattoir sampling process, from adult pigs originating in breeding herds in Denmark. The model incorporates effects of targeting (differential risk of seropositivity) associated with age and location (county), and disease clustering within herds. A surveillance time period of one month was used in the analysis. Records for the year 2005 were analysed, representing 25,332 samples from 3528 herds; all were negative for CSF-specific antibodies. Design prevalences of 0.1-1% of herds and 5% of animals within an infected herd were used. The estimated mean surveillance system component (SSC) sensitivities (probability that the SSC would give a positive outcome given the animals processed and that the country is infected at the design prevalences) per month were 0.18, 0.63 and 0.86, for among-herd design prevalences of 0.001, 0.005 and 0.01. The probabilities that the population was free from CSF at each of these design prevalences, after a year of accumulated negative surveillance data, were 0.91, 1.00 and 1.00. Targeting adults and herds from South Jutland was estimated to give approximately 1.9, 1.6 and 1.4 times the surveillance sensitivity of a proportionally representative sampling program for these three among-herd design prevalences.     

Bovine respiratory disease in feedlot cattle: phenotypic, environmental, and genetic correlations with growth, carcass, and longissimus muscle palatability traits

Bovine respiratory disease (BRD) is the most costly feedlot disease in the United States. Selection for disease resistance is one of several possible interventions to prevent or reduce the economic loss associated with animal disease and to improve animal welfare. Undesirable genetic relationships, however, may exist between production and disease resistance traits. The objectives of this study were to estimate the phenotypic, environmental, and genetic correlations of BRD with growth, carcass, and LM palatability traits. Health records on 18,112 feedlot cattle over a 15-yr period and slaughter data on 1,627 steers over a 4-yr period were analyzed with bivariate animal models. Traits included ADG, adjusted carcass fat thickness at the 12th rib, marbling score, LM area, weight of retail cuts, weight of fat trim, bone weight, Warner-Bratzler shear force, tenderness score, and juiciness score. The estimated heritability of BRD incidence was 0.08 +/- 0.01. Phenotypic, environmental, and genetic correlations of the observed traits with BRD ranged from -0.35 to 0.40, -0.36 to 0.55, and -0.42 to 0.20, respectively. Most correlations were low or negligible. The percentage of carcass bone had moderate genetic, phenotypic, and environmental correlations with BRD (-0.42, -0.35, and -0.36, respectively). Hot carcass weight and weight of retail cuts had moderate, undesirable phenotypic correlations with BRD (0.37 and 0.40, respectively). Correlations of BRD with LM palatability and ADG were not detected. Low or near zero estimates of genetic correlations infer that selection to reduce BRD in feedlot cattle would have negligible correlated responses on growth, carcass, and meat palatability traits or that selection for those traits will have little effect on BRD susceptibility or resistance.     

Age prevalence of trypanosomal infections in female Glossina morsitans morsitans (Diptera: Glossinidae) on the plateau area of eastern Zambia

Trypanosomal infections in female Glossina morsitans morsitans were investigated in an area in the Eastern Province of Zambia between 1992 and 1994. A total of 4416 flies were captured, aged using the ovarian ageing method and screened for trypanosomal infections in both the mouthparts, salivary glands and the midgut. Congolense-type infections were identified in 4.8% of the flies. Vivax-type and immature infections were identified in 1.8% and 6.8% of the flies, respectively. The prevalence of congolense-type, vivax-type and immature infections increased with age. For vivax-type infections the age-prevalence relationship could be described by a model assuming a constant per capita rate of infection. For congolense-type and midgut infections, a polynomial term was added to the model significantly improving the fit. The per capita at which flies become infected was significantly higher for immature compared to mature infections. Observations strongly suggest that tsetse acquire new midgut infections at any age and that maturation of these infections is not limited to those obtained during the first blood meal.     

Managing the water balance of The Fayoum Depression,Egypt

A study of the water balances of The Fayoum irrigated lands and Lake Qarun was made to investigate the management of the irrigation system and the efficiency of irrigation water use. The two water balances are strongly interrelated. The drainage flow to Lake Qarun and the water level of the Lake are in delicate balance. A rise in Lake level causes the inundation of adjacent land. Management of The Fayoum water balance assumes control over irrigation water flows, but this control has technical and organizational limitations. Also discussed is the influence of irrigation practices in The Fayoum on the water balance (e.g., the autumn flushing of fields and farmers' preference for not irrigating at night in winter). Notwithstanding a high overall efficiency, irrigation efficiency during the winter is low. The reasons for this are given, together with the constraints against improving system management. Improved uniformity of the division and application of irrigation water will enable a better technical control of flows and will result in better water management in The Fayoum. Abbreviations: FID — Fayoum Irrigation Department, 1 feddan (fe) — 0.4 ha, 1 mcm — 1 million cubic metres: an average annual flow of 3.17 m³/s gives 100 mcm, m³/fe.year — supplied volume (m³) per surface area (fe) per year: 1000 m³/fe.year equals 240 mm/year, MSL — Mean Sea Level     

A comparative description of two farmer-managed irrigation systems in Nepal

The organization of two farmer-managed irrigation systems in the western hills of Nepal is described by examining the ways in which the activities of water allocation, water distribution, maintenance, and resource mobilization are performed. Due to the topography and environment, these two organizations are structured primarily to mobilize the large amount of labor required for maintenance of the intake and canal. Both organizations precisely define each member's water allocation. In one system, water is allocated in proportion to the area of an individual's land holding, while in the other water allocation is by purchased shares. These two cases were used to analyze the importance of the principle of water allocation for expansion of area irrigated and equity of access to irrigation. Evidence from the two systems shows that in this hill environment water allocation by purchased shares provides the individual incentive and an organizational mechanism for efficient development of irrigation resources. Expansion of area irrigated and equity of access to irrigation were found to be greater in the system which allocates water by purchased shares than where water was allocated in proportion to area irrigated.     

Diagnosis of regional evaporation by remote sensing to support irrigation performance assessment

The success of water management in large irrigation schemes with composites of soil, crop, wetness and micro-meteorological conditions is difficult to quantify. Performance assessment indicators, being among others a function of evaporation, are useful tools to evaluate the actual functioning of an irrigation system. The inevitable spatial variability of evaporation in large irrigation schemes makes its determination with conventional point measurements almost impossible. A new remote sensing evaporation parameterization algorithm has been tested with high resolution Landsat Thematic Mapper data for the Eastern Nile Delta, Egypt. Although the implementation of such an algorithm requires assumptions to be made, the current case study shows that these assumptions do not hamper the estimation of actual and potential evaporation at regional scale. The actual evaporation has been used to express the uniformity of crop water use which is related to the equity of irrigation water distribution. The coefficient of variance in actual evaporation between 53 differenent irrigation districts is 10% on average. The relative evaporation was considered to determine whether the crop was adequately irrigated. The relative evaporation was more than 75% for 48 out of 53 irrigation districts. It is concluded, that improved information on actual crop growth conditions through remote sensing provides an essential insight into the planning of real-time and seasonal irrigation water deliveries.     

Finding niches for whole-farm design models – contradictio in terminis?

Whole-farm design models quantitatively analyze the effects of a variety of potential changes at the farm system level. Science-driven technical information is confronted with value-driven objectives of farmers or other social groupings under explicit assumptions with respect to exogenous variables that are important drivers of agricultural systems (e.g., market conditions). Hence, farm design is an outcome of objective specification and the potential of a system. In recent publications, whole-farm design modelling has been proposed to enhance (farm) innovation processes. A number of operational modelling tools now offers the opportunity to assess the true potential of whole-farm design modelling to enhance innovation. In this paper, we demonstrate that it is not trivial to find niches for the application of goal-based farm models. Model outcomes appeared not to match questions of farm managers monitoring and learning from their own and other farmers’ practices. However, our research indicates that whole-farm design modelling possesses the capabilities to make a valuable contribution to reframing. Reframing is the phenomenon that people feel an urge to discuss and reconsider current objectives and perspectives on a problem. Reframing might take place in a situation (i) of mutually felt dependency between stakeholders, (ii) in which there is sufficient pressure and urgency for stakeholders to explore new problem definitions and make progress. Furthermore, our research suggests that the way the researcher enters a likely niche to introduce a model and/or his or her position in this niche may have significant implications for the potential of models to enhance an innovation process. Therefore, we hypothesize that the chances of capitalizing on modelling expertise are likely to be higher when researchers with such expertise are a logical and more or less permanent component of ongoing trajectories than when these researchers come from outside to purposefully search for a niche.     

The impact of increasing farm size and mechanization on rural income and rice production in Zhejiang province,China

Economic growth in China’s agricultural sector lags behind growth in industry and services, creating an ever widening rural–urban income gap. Development of the non-agricultural sectors offers new opportunities for farmers in China’s more advanced provinces such as Zhejiang. Increased income in the urban sector creates markets for new products, and migrating farmers rent their land to those staying. Until now, the prevailing rice-based systems have been managed mainly using manual labour and animal traction, but the larger farms resulting from migration may facilitate, or even require mechanization. In this study, we use a simulation model of the farm household to analyse the effects of increasing farm size and the transition from rice to vegetable production, while also studying the effects of mechanization.