Developing robust frequentist and Bayesian fish stock assessment methods

Errors in fitting models to data are usually assumed to follow a normal (or log normal) distribution in fisheries. This assumption is usually used in formulating likelihood functions often required in frequentist and Bayesian stock assessment modelling. Fisheries data are commonly subject to atypical errors, resulting in outliers in stock assessment modelling. Because most stock assessment models are nonlinear and contain multiple variables, it is difficult, if not impossible, to identify outliers by plotting fisheries data alone. Commonly used normal distribution‐based frequentist and Bayesian stock assessment methods are sensitive to outliers, resulting in biased estimates of model parameters that are vital in defining the dynamics of fish stocks and evaluating alternative strategies for fisheries management. Because of the high likelihood of having outliers in fisheries data, frequentist or Bayesian methods robust to outliers are more desirable in fisheries stock assessment. This study reviews three approaches that can be used to develop robust frequentist or Bayesian stock assessment methods. Using simulated fisheries as examples, we demonstrate how these approaches can be used to develop the frequentist and Bayesian stock assessment approaches that are robust to outliers in fisheries data and compare the robust approaches with the commonly used normal distribution‐based approach. The proposed robust approaches provide alternative ways to developing frequentist or Bayesian stock assessment methods.     

江苏部分地区猪圆环病毒2型的分子流行病学检测

根据猪圆环病毒2型（PCV2）基因序列,设计1对特异性PCV2的鉴定引物,利用PCR方法对65份疑似PCV2感染的病料进行检测。PCR检测为阳性的病料经处理后,接种无PCV污染的Dulac细胞进行间接免疫荧光检测。对各分离毒株的全基因组进行PCR扩增、测序和基因型分析。结果表明：共分离鉴定21株PCV2,均属2b基因型,其中有16株为1C群,5株为1A/1B群。研究显示PCV2b 1C群已在江苏成为流行毒株。     

紫红笛鲷人工繁殖及育苗技术研究报告

利用海水土池或网箱养殖三龄以上的紫红笛鲷成鱼,于催产前三个月进行强化培育。在水温达到 20.0℃以上的春、夏季,用绒毛膜促性腺激素(HCG)和释放激素(LRH-A_(2-3))进行催产,混合或单一使用,剂量视亲鱼性腺成熟度而定。受精卵在盐度27.9-33.5,水温26.5-30.5℃,pH8.2的水环境中经15-17h孵化。开口仔鱼在土池水温27.2-35.5℃.盐度:23.5-35.6.pH8.0-9.5的条件下,经28-30d培育.鱼体全长为2.5-3.2cm,仔鱼变态完全,成为幼鱼。     

3种监测工具对棉盲蝽的诱测效果

为探索不同监测工具对棉盲蝽的诱测效果,确定可应用生产的监测工具,2011—2013年在江苏南通沿海地区棉田进行了3种不同监测工具诱集棉盲蝽的试验。试验表明,频振12#灯对盲蝽诱测效果好,诱虫量大,峰期峰次明显,能较准确地反映当地棉田主要种群绿盲蝽成虫的发生规律,且省工节时,降低了测报人员的劳动强度,值得在生产上推广使用。     

Aaptamine Derivatives with Antifungal and Anti-HIV-1 Activities from the South China Sea Sponge Aaptos aaptos

Five new alkaloids of aaptamine family, compounds (1–5) and three known derivatives (6–8), have been isolated from the South China Sea sponge Aaptos aaptos. The structures of all compounds were unambiguously elucidated by spectroscopic analyses, as well as by comparison with the literature data. Compounds 1–2 are characterized with triazapyrene lactam skeleton, whereas compounds 4–5 share an imidazole-fused aaptamine moiety. These compounds were evaluated in antifungal and anti-HIV-1 assays. Compounds 3, 7, and 8 showed antifungal activity against six fungi, with MIC values in the range of 4 to 64 μg/mL. Compounds 7–8 exhibited anti-HIV-1 activity, with inhibitory rates of 88.0% and 72.3%, respectively, at a concentration of 10 μM.     

Relative and Absolute Stereochemistry of Diacarperoxides: Antimalarial Norditerpene Endoperoxides from Marine Sponge Diacarnus megaspinorhabdosa

Five new norditerpene endoperoxides, named diacarperoxides H–L (1–5), and a new norditerpene diol, called diacardiol B (6), were isolated from the South China Sea sponge, Diacarnus megaspinorhabdosa. Their structures, including conformations and absolute configurations, were determined by using spectroscopic analyses, computational approaches and chemical degradation. Diacarperoxides H–J (1–3) showed some interesting stereochemical issues, as well as antimalarial activity.     

基于Sentinel-2A的棉花种植面积提取及产量预测

及时、准确预测棉花产量在棉田经营管理、农业决策制定等方面具有重要的价值和意义。为了提高棉花产量预测精度并确定估产的最佳生育时期,该研究利用谷歌地球引擎（Google Earth Engine,GEE）获取2020年Sentinel-2A的3个时间段影像,采用随机森林（Radom Forest, RF）、支持向量机（Support Vector Machine, SVM）、决策树（Classification and Regression Tree, CART）进行棉花种植区域提取,利用顺序向前选择（Sequential Forward Selection, SFS）和偏最小二乘算法（Partial Least Squares Regression, PLSR）确定棉花产量预测最佳生育时期,最终形成莫索湾垦区棉花产量预测分布图。结果表明,1）RF分类效果最佳,农田与非农田分类总体精度为0.94,Kappa 系数为0.89;棉田与非棉田分类总体精度为0.92,Kappa 系数为0.83。2）红边波段（B6）在3个生育时期中与产量相关性较好,相关系数随着生育时期的递进而增加,分别为0.37、0.47、0.53。3）基于PLSR构建的产量预测模型中,铃期预测效果最佳（决定系数R2=0.62,均方根误差RMSE=625.5 kg/hm2,相对误差RE=8.87%）,优于吐絮期（R2=0.51,RMSE=789.45 kg/hm2,RE=11.06%）和花期（R2=0.48,RMSE=686.4 kg/hm2,RE=9.86%）,铃期为棉花产量预测的最佳生育时期。该研究利用GEE和Sentinel-2A影像数据,为新疆莫索湾垦区棉花种植面积提取及产量预测提供一种新的思路,可为合理水肥配置、精准种植、农作物生长过程监测提供数据支撑。     

水库消落带土壤颗粒组成分形及其空间分异特征

颗粒组成作为土壤的基本物理特性,对土壤结构、力学性质、肥力特征等均有明显影响。降雨径流、波浪和重力等多重营力作用下的消落带土壤侵蚀过程导致表层土壤颗粒发生了重新分布。为了研究水库消落带土壤颗粒组成的空间分异特征,以三峡水库典型消落带为研究对象,在不同海拔位置分别采集了0—10 cm和10—20 cm层的土壤用于测定颗粒组成,并利用分形理论计算出体积分形维数。结果表明:(1)三峡水库消落带土壤颗粒组成以粉粒为主,占总体积的72.6%～86.5%,且随着海拔的增加而升高; 从不同土层深度来看,0—10 cm层黏粒含量明显低于10—20 cm层。(2)消落带不同海拔位置的土壤体积分形维数具有明显异质性,且与海拔呈正相关(R²=0.74),而在不同土层之间具有弱变异性(C_v<2)。(3)体积分形维数与黏粒、粉粒含量均呈显著正相关(p<0.01),与砂粒含量呈显著负相关(p<0.01),且与黏粒的线性相关性最强。综上,消落带土壤颗粒组成在不同海拔存在较大差异(p<0.01),但在土层深度上无显著差异(p>0.01); 150～160 m海拔区间和0—10 cm层土壤具有明显的粗粒化现象。     

不同粒型吉林粳稻食味品质及质构特性比较分析

为探究粒形对粳稻食味品质及质构特性的影响,以22个不同粒形品种粳稻稻米为对象,分析其理化特性、食味品质和质构特性差异。结果表明,参试粳稻稻米理化性质相似,但食味品质和质构特性差异较大,吉粳830食味品质最佳,滢科101食味品质最差;粒宽与米饭硬度呈显著正相关（p<0.05）,与黏度、黏硬比和食味值呈显著负相关（p<0.05）,与黏性呈极显著负相关（p<0.01）;长宽比与米饭黏度和黏性呈显著正相关（p<0.05）。主成分分析（判别率为80.5%）和正交偏最小二乘判别分析（拟合能力R²X=0.759,预测能力Q²=0.698）可有效将食味品质较好的稻米样本归为一类,黏硬比可作为判别优质食用稻米的有效参数。本研究结果可为基于稻米粒形建立稻米食用特性的快速评价方法提供参考。     

玉米禾谷镰孢穗腐病抗性鉴定接种方法比较

通过子粒注射法和花丝通道法,在玉米吐丝初期至乳熟后期间隔 5～127 d接种 3个不同玉米品种,明确东北地区玉米禾谷镰孢穗腐病抗性鉴定的最佳接种方法。结果发现,禾谷镰孢在玉米吐丝期至乳熟期均能侵染玉米子粒和花丝。子粒注射法在玉米吐丝 1～12 d内接种的病情指数显著高于 16 d以后接种的处理;花丝通道法在玉米吐丝 1～5 d内的病情指数显著高于 12 d以后接种的处理。子粒注射法的抗性鉴定结果为吐丝 1 d接种的果穗表现为感病,吐丝 5～12 d为中抗或抗病,吐丝 16 d之后为抗病或高抗;花丝通道法接种的结果为吐丝 1 d为中抗或抗,吐丝 5 d及以后为抗或高抗。结果表明,子粒注射法在玉米吐丝 10～15 d左右接种发病稳定、抗感差异明显、鉴定结果准确。