A model of plant virus disease epidemics in asynchronously-planted cropping systems

A mathematical model was developed of the dynamics of a plant virus disease within a spatially-referenced lattice of fields of a host crop. The model can be applied to crops in continuous, contiguous cultivation such as tropical irrigated rice. Disease progress in each field of the host crop was assumed to be logistic and determined by incidence within the field itself as well as incidence in neighbouring fields, depending on the gradient of disease spread. The frequency distribution of planting dates (represented by the proportion of the total number of fields planted in successive months) was assumed to follow a normal distribution and the variance of planting date was used as a measure of cropping asynchrony. Analysis of the model revealed that disease incidence within the lattice (i.e. mean incidence over all fields) depended upon the infection efficiency, the slope of the dispersal gradient, and the variance in planting date. Disease endemicity depended mainly on planting date variance and disease persisted in the lattice if this variance exceeded a certain threshold. Above the threshold for persistence, the response of mean disease incidence to planting date variance was non-linear and the region of greatest sensitivity was closest to the threshold. Thus, disease systems that show moderate rather than high cropping asynchrony are more likely to be influenced by changes in the variance of planting date. Implications for the area-wide management of rice tungro virus disease are discussed.     

The effect of urea on the voluntary intake by calves of silages preserved with formaldehyde and formic acid

Perennial ryegrass cv. S23 was preserved by fermentation (C), or with the addition of 8.7 1 formalin (35% w/w formaldehyde) per t fresh herbage (F) or of 9.0 1 equal mixture (by vol.) of formalin and formic acid (85% w/w solution) per t fresh herbage (FF). These three silages comprised the treatments in a three-period, crossover design in which urea (u) was given at the rate of 20 g per kg dietary DM to half the animals. Twelve calves were allocated to the treatment sequences when they were approximately 12 weeks of age from within groups which had previously received diets with or without urea. Calves ate significantly (P< 0.001) less of silages F or FF than of silage C when each was offered alone, but when urea was given, intakes of silages F and FF were significantly (P < 0.001) increased such that the intakes of all three silages with urea were similar (23.6, 19.6, 19.3, 24.2, 24.2, 24.7 ± 0.51 g DM per kg LW for C, F, FF, Cu, Fu and FFu, respectively). Significantly (P<0.01) more of the DM in silage C was digested than in F or FF and the addition of urea significantly (P<0.05) increased the digestibility of DM from silage FF only (73.8, 71.3, 69.8, 74.6, 70.7, 72.5 ± 0.72% for C, F, FF, Cu, Fu and FFu, respectively). When the silages were given alone, calves spent longer eating and ruminating per kg DM ingested with F or FF than with C. The time spent on F and FF was significantly (P<0.01) reduced by the addition of urea (303, 388, 411, 297, 299, 290 ± 18.9 min per kg DM ingested for C, F, FF, Cu and Fu and FFu, respectively). The results presented suggest that urea partially alleviated the reduction in voluntary intake by calves given herbage preserved using formalin, but the mode of action was not clear.