Combining top-down and bottom-up dynamics in land use modeling: exploring the future of abandoned farmlands in Europe with the Dyna-CLUE model

Land use change is the result of interactions between processes operating at different scales. Simulation models at regional to global scales are often incapable of including locally determined processes of land use change. This paper introduces a modeling approach that integrates demand-driven changes in land area with locally determined conversion processes. The model is illustrated with an application for European land use. Interactions between changing demands for agricultural land and vegetation processes leading to the re-growth of (semi-) natural vegetation on abandoned farmland are explicitly addressed. Succession of natural vegetation is simulated based on the spatial variation in biophysical and management related conditions, while the dynamics of the agricultural area are determined by a global multi-sector model. The results allow an exploration of the future dynamics of European land use and landscapes. The model approach is similarly suitable for other regions and processes where large scale processes interact with local dynamics.     

Effects of multiple fires on tree invasion in montane grasslands

There is circumstantial evidence that grasslands on the Bunya Mountains were once maintained by Aboriginal burning, and with lack of fire under European management are being colonised by trees. To assess the efficacy of burning for maintaining grasslands, 119 fires were lit between 1996 and 2006. The total area of unburnt grasslands decreased by 27%, while grasslands burnt at least once decreased by 1%. The density of invading trees was recorded from fixed plots on 23 grasslands burnt between one and six times. Cassinia was virtually eliminated and the density of the Rainforest species guild slowly but continually declined. Acacia irrorata exhibited a humped response, with initial increases resulting from vegetative resprouting and gradual decline with persistent burning. Phyllodinous Acacia and Woodland trees were the least fire sensitive guilds, having stable or increased density with repeated burning. Multi-factor regression modelling detected no significant relationships between changes in woody plant density and the interval between fires, fire intensity, the initial density of large trees, an index of soil moisture, or the cumulative number of fires for any species guild. The survivorship of both Cassinia and Rainforest guilds was significantly lower with summer burning than winter burning, but a seasonal effect of burning was not evident for other guilds. The findings suggest that regardless of fire conditions, frequent burning will reduce the number of adult trees, maintain resprouts in an immature state, facilitate further fire and reduce the rate of grassland loss. Woodland species are especially resilient to fire, and burning to maintain grassy ecosystems will be most successful where the main colonisers are rainforest species and burning is conducted in summer. The findings suggest that the montane grasslands of the Bunya Mountains were maintained by anthropogenic burning and active fire management will prolong their existence.     

Relating tradable credits for biodiversity to sustainability criteria in a dynamic landscape

Tradable biodiversity credit systems provide flexible means to resolve conflicts between development and conservation land-use options for habitats occupied by threatened or endangered species. We describe an approach to incorporate the influence of habitat fragmentation into the conservation value of tradable credits. Habitat fragmentation decreases gene flow, increases rates of genetic drift and inbreeding, and increases probabilities of patch extinction. Importantly, tradable credit systems will change the level of fragmentation over time for small and/or declining populations. We apply landscape equivalency analysis (LEA), a generalizable, landscape-scale accounting system that assigns conservation value to habitat patches based on patch contributions to abundance and genetic variance at landscape scales. By evaluating habitat trades using two models that vary the relationship between dispersal behaviors and landscape patterns, we show that LEA provides a novel method for limiting access to habitat at the landscape-scale, recognizing that the appropriate amount of migration needed to supplement patch recruitment and to offset drift and inbreeding will vary as landscape pattern changes over time. We also found that decisions based on probabilities of persistence alone would ignore changes in migration, genetic drift, and patch extinction that result from habitat trades. The general principle of LEA is that habitat patches traded should make at least equivalent contributions to rates of recruitment and migration estimated at a landscape scale. Traditional approaches for assessing the “take” and “jeopardy” standards under the Endangered Species Act based on changes in abundance and probability of persistence may be inadequate to prevent trades that increase fragmentation.     

Historical influences dominate the composition of regenerating plant communities in abandoned citrus groves in north-central Florida

The question of what determines plant community composition is fundamental to the study of plant community ecology. We examined the relative roles of historical land use, landscape context, and the biophysical environment as determinants of plant community composition in regenerating citrus groves in north-central Florida. Results were interpreted in light of plant functional traits. Herbaceous and woody plants responded differently to broad-scale variables; herbs correlated most strongly with surrounding land cover at a scale of 8 km, while the only significant determinant of woody species distributions was local land use history. There were significant correlations between herbaceous species and spatial context, habitat isolation, environmental variables, and historical variables. Partial Mantel tests indicated that each variable provided a unique contribution in explaining some of the variation in the herbaceous dataset. The correlation between woody plants and local historical variables remained significant even with other effects corrected for. In the herbaceous community, species composition was linked to functional traits much as expected from classical theory. While spatial influences in our study system are important for both woody and herbaceous plants, the primary determinant of plant community composition in regenerating citrus groves is historical land use. Our results suggest that the fine-scale mechanisms of local competition, tolerance and facilitation invoked by many classical studies may ultimately be less important than land use history in understanding current plant community composition in regenerating agricultural areas.     

The Pelagos Sanctuary for Mediterranean marine mammals

• 1. In February 2002, France, Italy and Monaco agreed to establish an international sanctuary for Mediterranean marine mammals. The resulting Pelagos Sanctuary encompasses over 87500 km² of the north‐western Mediterranean Sea, extending between south‐eastern France, Monaco, north‐western Italy and northern Sardinia, and surrounding Corsica and the Tuscan Archipelago.
• 2. The Pelagos Sanctuary illustrates how the tenets of Marine Protected Area (MPA) design can be reconciled with the dynamic nature of oceanic systems, because its spatial scale was defined by oceanographic and ecological considerations, specifically the location of the Ligurian permanent frontal system.
• 3. By expanding protective measures beyond national waters, the Pelagos Sanctuary also sets a precedent for the implementation of pelagic protected areas in the high seas. The Pelagos Sanctuary will contribute to the conservation of the Mediterranean Sea at two scales: (i) locally, by protecting important cetacean foraging and breeding grounds in the Ligurian Sea, and by providing ‘umbrella’ protection to other marine predators in this area; and (ii) regionally, by empowering other conservation measures, such as the Specially Protected Areas Protocol of the Barcelona Convention and the wider goals of the Agreement on the Conservation of Cetaceans of the Black and Mediterranean Seas (ACCOBAMS).
• 4. However, because few cetacean species are resident within the Sanctuary, their effective long‐term conservation will require large‐scale management and coordinated monitoring throughout the Mediterranean basin.

Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Implementation of two high through-put techniques in a novel application: detecting point mutations in large EMS mutated plant populations

Background  

The establishment of mutant populations together with the strategies for targeted mutation detection has been applied successfully to a large number of organisms including many species in the plant kingdom. Considerable efforts have been invested into research on tomato as a model for berry-fruit plants. With the progress of the tomato sequencing project, reverse genetics becomes an obvious and achievable goal.     

Bahiagrass crop coefficients from eddy correlation measurements in central Florida

Bahiagrass (Paspalum notatum) is a warm-season grass used primarily in pastures and along highways and other low maintenance public areas in Florida. It is also used in landscapes to some extent because of its drought tolerance. Bahiagrass can survive under a range of moisture conditions from no irrigation to very wet conditions. Its well-watered consumptive use has not been reported previously. In this study, bahiagrass crop coefficients (K _c) for an irrigated pasture were determined for July 2003 through December 2006 in central Florida. The eddy correlation method was used to estimate crop evapotranspiration (ET_c) rates. The standardized reference evapotranspiration (ET_o) equation (ASCE-EWRI standardization of reference evapotranspiration task committee report, 2005) was applied to calculate ET_o values using on site weather data. Daily K _c values were estimated from the ratio of the measured ET_c and the calculated ET_o. The recommended K _c values for bahiagrass are 0.35 for January–February, 0.55 for March, 0.80 for April, 0.90 for May, 0.75 for June, 0.70 for July–August, 0.75 for September, 0.70 for October, 0.60 for November, and 0.45 for December in central Florida. The highest K _c value of 0.9 in May corresponded with maximum vapor pressure deficit conditions as well as cloud free conditions and the highest incoming solar radiation as compared to the rest of the year. During the summer (June to August), frequent precipitation events increased the cloud cover and reduced grass water use. The K _c annual trend was similar to estimated K _c values from another well-watered warm-season grass study in Florida.     

Evaluating eddy covariance cotton ET measurements in an advective environment with large weighing lysimeters

Eddy covariance (EC) systems are being used to assess the accuracy of remote sensing methods in mapping surface sensible and latent heat fluxes and evapotranspiration (ET) from local to regional scales, and in crop coefficient development. Therefore, the objective was to evaluate the accuracy of EC systems in measuring sensible heat (H) and latent heat (LE) fluxes. For this purpose, two EC systems were installed near large monolithic weighing lysimeters, on irrigated cotton fields in the Texas High Plains, during the months of June and July 2008. Sensible and latent heat fluxes were underestimated with an average error of about 30%. Most of the errors were from nocturnal measurements. Energy balance (EB) closure was 73.2–78.0% for daytime fluxes. Thus, daylight fluxes were adjusted for lack of EB closure using the Bowen ratio/preservation of energy principle, which improved the resulting EC heat flux agreement with lysimetric values. Further adjustments to EC-based ET included nighttime ET (composite) incorporation, and the use of ‘heat flux source area’ (footprint) functions to compensate ET when the footprint expanded beyond the crop field boundary. As a result, ET values remarkably matched lysimetric ET values, with a ‘mean bias error ± root mean square error’ of −0.03 ± 0.5 mm day⁻¹ (or −0.6 ± 10.2%).     

Estimation of actual evapotranspiration for a drip-irrigated Merlot vineyard using a three-source model

A study was performed in order to evaluate the three-source model (Clumped model) for direct estimation of actual evapotranspiration (ET_a) and latent heat flux (LE) over a drip-irrigated Merlot vineyard trained on a vertical shoot positioned system (VSP) under semi-arid conditions. The vineyard, with an average fractional cover of 30%, is located in the Talca Valley, Region del Maule, Chile. The performance of the Clumped model was evaluated using an eddy covariance system during the 2006/2007 and 2007/2008 growing seasons. Results indicate that the Clumped model was able to predict ET_a with a root mean square error (RMSE), mean bias error (MBE), and model efficiency (EF) of 0.33, −0.15 mm day⁻¹ and 74%, respectively. Also, the Clumped model simulated the daytime variation of LE with a RMSE of 36 W m⁻², MBE of −8 W m⁻², and EF of 83%. Major disagreement (underestimated values) between observed and estimated values of ET_a was found for clear days after rainfall or foggy days, but underestimated values were less than 10% of the data analysis. The results obtained in this study indicate that the Clumped model could be used to directly estimate vine water requirements for a drip-irrigated vineyard trained on a VSP. However, application of the Clumped model requires a good characterization of the drip-irrigated vineyard architecture.