Use of 3-PG and 3-PGS to simulate forest growth dynamics of Australian tropical rainforests: I. Parameterisation and calibration for old-growth,regenerating and plantation forests

Accurate information concerning regional to ecosystem-scale carbon dynamics within tropical rainforests is important because of the increasing certainty that the global climate will change significantly within the next century. Tropical forests of north Queensland, Australia, are highly sensitive to climate change and substantial shifts in the distribution of these forests are likely to occur with minor variations in climate. The focus of this research was the development of a model-based system for assessing forest growth and biomass accumulation dynamics within Australia's tropical rainforest bioregion and predicting the impacts of climate change on these dynamics. This paper presents the parameterisation and calibration of (a) the 3-PG (Physiological Principles Predicting Growth) model to a selection of restored rainforest and commercial timber plantations and (b) a modified version 3-PGS which uses satellite data, enabling the spatial assessment of mature tropical rainforest growth and production throughout the wet tropics bioregion. Statistically significant relationships were observed between 3-PG and 3-PGS modelled and field measured estimates of stand structural attributes including, basal area (BA), diameter at breast height (DBH) and above-ground biomass (AGB) throughout the bioregion. 3-PG and 3-PGS modelled leaf area index (LAI) and net primary production (NPP) related well to published estimates at other similar rainforest sites. These results indicate that the simple, process-based models are effective at capturing the growth dynamics of structurally complex old-growth, restoration and plantation rainforests.     

Restoring rainforest species by direct seeding: Tree seedling establishment and growth performance on degraded land in the wet tropics of Australia

The establishment and growth performance of directly seeded rainforest tree species on degraded sites was investigated in the wet tropical region of north east Queensland, Australia. Trials were established at three degraded sites previously covered by rainforest, using two different sowing times (the beginning and end of the wet season), and a range of species having different seed sizes and successional status. The results two years after sowing showed that the effects of sowing time on tree seedling establishment were small despite pronounced differences in cumulative rainfall received by the seedlings. Results suggested that at some sites more serious weed competition might be avoided by sowing later in the season. Although some small seeded early successional species could grow quickly, the establishment of these was found to be significantly negatively affected by the growth of weeds, and in most cases, large seeded species showed more consistent establishment. On the other hand the growth rates of larger seeded species were often rather slow, limiting their contribution to early site capture. Results indicate that direct seeding can be a viable establishment method, but the identity of species to be used, the circumstances under which they should be directly sown and the most appropriate timing of sowing will vary with situations. Species characteristics, including seed size, growth rate potential and light requirement will be important to consider in relation to the probable conditions that will develop for seedlings following germination (particularly in relation to plant competition) with or without post-sowing site management, such as removal of weeds.     

Inferring Upon Heterogeneous Associations in Dairy Cattle Performance Using a Bivariate Hierarchical Model

Multivariate hierarchical Bayesian models provide a flexible framework for comprehensive study of biological systems with more than one outcome. Recent methodological developments facilitate modeling of heterogeneous associations between outcomes by specifying a linear mixed model on (co)variances at different levels of the data structure. Motivated by previous evidence for heterogeneous correlations in animal agriculture, we apply the proposed hierarchical Bayesian models to study the nature of the correlations between key performance outcomes in dairy cattle production systems, namely milk yield and reproduction. That is, the association between these outcomes might depend upon various fixed and random effect sources of heterogeneity both at the individual cow (residual) level as well as the herd (cluster) level. We thus propose a sequential modeling approach based on the deviance information criterion to select relevant explanatory variables on both types of associations. Furthermore, we extend the proposed methodology to accommodate right-censored outcomes, as common for dairy reproduction data, and use it to analyze field data from the Michigan dairy industry. The nature of the associations between milk production and reproduction in dairy cattle was inferred to be strongly heterogeneous and driven by multiple farm management practices and herd attributes, as well as by random clustering effects, at both cow and herd levels, thereby suggesting potential between-herd and within-herd intervention strategies to optimize performance of dairy production systems. Supplementary materials are available online.     

Species-site matching in mixed species plantations of native trees in tropical Australia

Mixed species plantations using native trees are increasingly being considered for sustainable timber production. Successful application of mixed species forestry systems requires knowledge of the potential spatial interaction between species in order to minimise the chance of dominance and suppression and to maximise wood production. Here, we examined species performances across 52 experimental plots of tree mixtures established on cleared rainforest land to analyse relationships between the growth of component species and climate and soil conditions. We derived site index (SI) equations for ten priority species to evaluate performance and site preferences. Variation in SI of focus species demonstrated that there are strong species-specific responses to climate and soil variables. The best predictor of tree growth for rainforest species Elaeocarpus grandis and Flindersia brayleyana was soil type, as trees grew significantly better on well-draining than on poorly drained soil profiles. Both E. grandis and Eucalyptus pellita showed strong growth response to variation in mean rain days per month. Our study generates understanding of the relative performance of species in mixed species plantations in the Wet Tropics of Australia and improves our ability to predict species growth compatibilities at potential planting sites within the region. Given appropriate species selections and plantation design, mixed plantations of high-value native timber species are capable of sustaining relatively high productivity at a range of sites up to age 10 years, and may offer a feasible approach for large-scale reforestation.     

Adaptation and competition in mixtures of cowpea (Vigna unguiculata (L.) Walp.)

Summary Six pure lines and four mixtures were grown in six environments throughout lowland Papua New Guinea. There were no significant transgressive increases in the grain yield of mixtures above their pure line components, and mixture yields were adequately predicted by the mean of components. In yield stability it was found that the individual buffering of pure lines was of more importance than population buffering, and that the magnitude of population buffering varied with the particular combination of components. Competitive effects in all the mixtures were of the compensating type. Dramatic changes in mixture composition resulting from natural selection precluded their use in local agriculture. The outcome of competition in mixtures was strongly influenced by the growing environment, such that selective index was correlated to general fertility.     

Variation between and within lentil landraces from Yemen Arab Republic

Summary The variation in 31 landraces of lentil collected from Yemen Arab Republic was partitioned to estimate the variation between populations and the variation between families within populations by studying a total of 568 progenies of randomly selected plants. There was significant variation between populations and between families within populations in seedling pigmentation, time to flower, time to maturity and plant height, but the predominant source of variation was between populations. This variation was unrelated to altitude of collection. The landraces were equally variable across characters. The implications of this analysis of variation on lentil breeding and germplasm collection are discussed.     

Relationships among economic characters in lentil

Summary There are several reports of the association among lentil characters based on a few, relatively similar lines grown in single environments. Their results have often been inconsistent because of inadequate sampling of genotypes and environments. This study examined associations between economic characters in lentil over a wide range of genetic material and environments in West Asia. The first part of the study concerned correlations within large samples from the world lentil collection grown in two seasons, and the second part covered a smaller sample of genetic material from the collection sown over a wider range of conditions.The results showed similar phenotypic correlations over two seasons, contrasting in rainfall, in the world lentil collection. Similar genetic and phenotypic correlations were also shown by the smaller sample of germplasm over 10 environments. These results indicated low importance of covariance due to environmental and genotype-environment interaction effects. Seed yield was positively correlated with straw yield, indicating selection for either character will increase the other trait. The correlation between seed protein content and seed yield was small and negative, while the correlation of protein with straw yield was positive in sign. This suggests that the current ICARDA goals of selection for high seed and straw yield will not have a major correlated effect on seed protein content. There was a strong positive correlation between seed size and cooking time (r=0.96), therefore seed size can be used to predict cooking time.     

Response of wild lentil to Ascochyta fabae f.sp. lentis from Syria

Summary Ascochyta blight induced by Ascochyta fabae f.sp. lentis is a major foliar disease affecting lentil. Screening 248 accessions of the ICARDA wild lentil germplasm collection for resistance to a Syrian isolate of this fungus was conducted under artificial inoculation in a plastic house. The reaction of resistant accessions was confirmed in a second trial. Twenty-four out of 86 accessions of Lens culinaris ssp. orientalis were resistant, as were 12 of 35 accessions of L. culinaris ssp. odemensis, 3 of 35 accessions of L. nigricans ssp. nigricans, 36 of 89 accessions of L. nigricans ssp. ervoides, and all 3 accessions of Vicia montbretii. Sixty-four per cent of resistant sources were from Syria and southeastern Turkey. Disease reaction was uncorrelated both to the altitude of collection and its annual average rainfall. A significant correlation (r = 0.281) between leaflet width and disease reaction was due more to the frequency of the resistant reaction within the narrow-leaved L. nigricans ssp. ervoides than as a function of small leaf area. Disease reaction was uncorrelated with a range of other morphological traits.     

Quantitave evaluation of Ethiopian landraces of lentil (Lens culinaris)

Summary One hundred and fifty-six landrace populations of lentil (Lens culinaris Medikus) collected from 10 provinces in Ethiopia were evaluated for a set of six quantitative traits at three sites contrasting in altitude. Consistent regional differences among landraces were found for time to flower and maturity, 100-seed weight, number of seeds/pod and plant height. The regional differences were clarified by a discriminant analysis based on 100-seed weight, time to flower and plant height. The lentil of the West Highlands was early and short, that of the North Highlands was large-seeded, whereas lentils from the Central Highlands were the least distinctive group. Selection for seed size was the result of local human preferences. Humans were probably also responsible for the lack of adaptive value of plant phenology in relation to altitude. Selection for seed yield at the low and middle elevation sites gave a positive response to selection at both sites. However, selection for yield at the highland site did not give a positive response elsewhere, indicating that adaptation to highland conditions differed from that at lower elevations.     

Influence of season to season variability in weather on irrigation scheduling of wheat: A simulation study

Summary There is an increasing demand from farmers for irrigation scheduling advice. Where rainfall and evapotranspiration vary little from year to year, advice on a fixed irrigation schedule based on mean climatic data can be given. However where significant year to year variability in weather occurs a more flexible approach using actual weather data to predict the current level of soil water and mean climatic data to forecast the future rate of depletion and hence irrigation date may be needed. A technique for deciding the most appropriate scheduling approach was tested by using a simple model of crop growth combined with a soil water balance model to simulate year to year variability in scheduling advice. This technique was applied to irrigated wheat using a set of climatic data from 1968 to 1978 for Griffith in the Murrumbidgee Irrigation Area of New South Wales, Australia. A typical sowing date in early June was used and simulated irrigations were scheduled at an allowable soil water depletion (ASWD) of 62 mm for maximum yield and 93 mm for 80% of maximum. The analysis predicted that weather variability between years would cause the number of irrigations to vary from 2 to 7 for ASWD=62 mm and 1 to 4 for ASWD=93 mm. The interval between irrigations varied from 12 to 30 days, for ASWD=62 mm and from 16 to 28 days, for ASWD=93 mm. The first irrigation occurred between 76 and 131 days from sowing for ASWD=62 mm and from 100 to 140 days from sowing for ASWD=93 mm. The date of the last irrigation was similarly variable. This high degree of variability in the times and frequency of irrigations indicated that in south-eastern Australia accurate irrigation scheduling advice can only be given by using a flexible model using both actual and mean climatic data. A fixed schedule based on mean climatic data would lead to an inefficient use of water caused by the mistiming of irrigations.