Risk factors for introduction of BHV1 into BHV1-free Dutch dairy farms: a case-control study

In May 1998, a compulsory eradication programme for BHV1 started in the Netherlands. In December 1999 approximately 24% of Dutch dairy farms were certified BHV1-free (Animal Health Service (AHS)). Ninety-three certified BHV1-free dairy farms participated in a cohort study that investigated the probability of introduction of infectious diseases. The probability of introduction of BHV1 was determined from March 1997 until April 1999. Ninety of these farms remained BHV1-free and could be used as control farms. From January 1997 until March 1998, BHV1 was introduced into 41 BHV1-free dairy farms in the Netherlands (case farms). Management data were collected for both cases and controls and were complete for 37 case farms and 82 control farms. For small data sets and for data in which both low and high frequencies were expected in the contingency tables, the asymptotic methods were unreliable. Our data set clearly resembled such a data set; the risk factors were rare events because the BHV1-free farms were closed farms on which few direct animal contacts occurred. Therefore, an exact stratified modelling approach was most suitable for the data. The study showed that dairy farms should prevent cattle from escaping or mingling with other cattle and that professional visitors should always wear protective farm clothing.     

Impact of different approaches to calculate the economics of disease in pig farming

Diagrams for analyzing the economics of sow and fattening farms are described and discussed. The diagrams are used to quantify the economic significance of a change in technical results for pig farms in the Netherlands. Sensitivity analyses show the importance of taking into account feed savings of piglets and sows due to, for instance, less litters per sow per year. To see whether there was an effect of the economic environment and the structure of the fanning system, the same calculations were carried out for Minnesota (USA). The economic effect of a change in results (e.g. days open) was smaller for Minnesota, but economic effects were similarly influenced by specific factors, such as feed intake and price. Subsequently, several scientific publications on the estimation of the costs of Aujeszky's disease in pigs were compared with respect to the economic methods used and the outcomes obtained. Because of different estimation procedures, the costs of the disease varied significantly. Differences are mainly due to the loss items that were taken into account, the way the loss items were calculated and the structure of the farming system that was included. There is a need for a standardized framework of how to conduct a sound economic evaluation, in order to make the outcome of different calculations more comparable and interpretable.     

Quantifying characteristics of information-technology applications based on expert knowledge for detection of oestrus and mastitis in dairy cows

Expert opinions were elicited about the characteristics at the commercial-farm level of on-line information technology (IT) applications that are able to detect oestrus and mastitis in dairy cows. Since actual data of these characteristics are not available, judgmental data provided an alternative means to interpret the implications of research results for commercial farms. Applications included were activity measurement, milk-production measurement, electrical conductivity of quarter milk, automated concentrate feeders and milk-temperature measurement. Sensitivity and specificity of detection of oestrus (OD), clinical-mastitis (CMD) and subclinical-mastitis (SCMD) were ascertained. Conjoint-analysis was used to assess the effect of each application indirectly by decomposing the evaluated overall detection characteristics of a predefined number of IT combinations.

The individual experts were consistent in evaluating the alternatives, but there was variation in estimates among experts. Estimations of the main effects of the applications and important first-order interactions were incorporated into the detection models. Implementation of all applications under study resulted in overall sensitivities and specificities of 82% and 90%, 73% and 87%, 58% and 82% for OD, CMD and SCMD, respectively. Further research is necessary that should take into account costs and benefits of the different detection systems based on the current status of farm performance (e.g. OD and mastitis incidence) and farm structure (e.g. farm size, years in operation of the milking parlour and parlour layout). Research to do this is currently in progress.     

Evaluating control strategies for outbreaks in BHV1-free areas using stochastic and spatial simulation

Several countries within the EU have successfully eradicated bovine herpesvirus type I (BHV1), while others are still making efforts to eradicate the virus. Reintroduction of the virus into BHV1-free areas can lead to major outbreaks - thereby causing severe economic losses. To give decision-makers more insight into the risk and economic consequences of BHV1 reintroduction and into the effectiveness of various control strategies, we developed the simulation model InterIBR. InterIBR is a dynamic model that takes into account risk and uncertainty and the geographic location of individual farms. Simulation of a BHV1-outbreak in the Netherlands starts with introduction of the virus on a predefined farm type, after which both within-farm and between-farm transmission are simulated. Monitoring and control measures are implemented to simulate detection of the infection and subsequent control. Economic consequences included in this study are related to losses due to infection and costs of control. In the simulated basic control strategy, dairy farms are monitored by monthly bulk-milk tests and miscellaneous farms are monitored by half-yearly serological tests. After detection, movement-control measures apply, animal contacts are traced and neighbour farms are put on surveillance. Given current assumptions on transmission dynamics, we conclude that a strategy with either rapid removal or vaccination of infected cattle does not reduce the number of infected farms compared to this basic strategy - but will cost more to control. Farm type with first introduction of BHV1 has a considerable impact on the expected number of secondarily infected farms and total costs. To limit the number of infected farms and total costs due to outbreaks, we suggest intensifying the monitoring program on farms with a high frequency of cattle trade, and monthly bulk-milk testing on dairy farms.     

Relationships between dairy cow mastitis and fertility management and farm performance

A field study was carried out on 38 dairy farms in the Netherlands to determine the relationship between mastitis and fertility management with 305-day milk production and gross margin. Questionnaires were used to get insight into the farmers' management. Out of 150 variables related to mastitis and fertility management, and technical and economic results, 44 variables were selected based on correlation of ≥0.25 or ≤−0.25 with milk production and/or gross margin. These variables were used in two separate partial least-squares (PLS) analyses. PLS has the advantage that it can handle a large number of variables in relation to the number of cases. The PLS-model of 305-day milk production had R² = 0.54 and showed a positive relation between 305-day milk production and awareness of the farmer regarding bulk somatic-cell count (BSCC), the goal level of the farmer for BSCC, and hygiene of the milking parlour. Fertility was negatively related to 305-day milk production, in spite of a relatively good fertility management on high-producing farms. R² = 0.46 for gross margin. The aspiration level of fertility did not seem to affect gross margin, but awareness of BSCC and calving interval (CI) had positive effects. Such awareness seemed a general parameter for good economic results, because it was correlated with different aspects of gross margin.     

Eliciting the relative importance of risk factors concerning contagious animal diseases using conjoint analysis: a preliminary survey report

Conjoint analysis is a technique well known in marketing research to elicit consumer preferences and opinions. This paper describes the results of an experiment which explores the potential application of conjoint analysis in the field of veterinary epidemiology and economics. In this experiment, the method of conjoint analysis was used to elicit the opinion of experts about the relative importance of risk factors concerning contagious animal diseases. Diseases studied were: African Swine Fever (ASF), Classical Swine Fever (CSF), Foot-and-Mouth Disease (FMD), Swine Vesicular Disease (SVD), Newcastle Disease (NCD) and Avian Influenza (AI). Risk factors included were import of livestock, import of animal products, feeding of swill, tourists, returning livestock trucks and air. The conjoint analysis technique was used to draw up a questionnaire which was handed out during the 7th ISVEE held at Nairobi, Kenya, from 15 to 19 August 1994. According to the experts approached, the factors ‘import of livestock’ and ‘import of animal products’ were the major sources of risk for all diseases. For ASF, CSF and FMD, the risk factor ‘swill feeding’ ranked third. For FMD and the two poultry diseases NCD and AI, only the risk factor ‘air’ was important. Overall conclusion was that conjoint analysis could be a useful method for eliciting the opinion of experts about risk factors concerning contagious animal diseases. In further research, special attention should be given to the selection of experts and the presentation of the conjoint questions.     

A state-transition model to stimulate the economics of bovine virus diarrhoea control

A state-transition model was developed to examine the control of bovine virus diarrhoea (BVD) virus (BVDV) infections epidemiologically and economically at the farm level, using a computer spreadsheet program. The model offers the possibility of comparing and evaluating the alternatives ‘no intervention’ and ‘culling carriers’. All input variables can easily be modified to suit different conditions and areas, making it a flexible tool for policy making and decision support. Results of calculations with the most likely input values for Dutch conditions showed that culling the carriers which were persistently infected after an outbreak of BVD was economically unattractive (especially if there was any risk of reinfection). Further research is desired (1) to model the losses due to immunosuppression caused by BVDV infection, and (2) to predict more precisely the spread of BVDV after culling the carriers.     

A critique of published cost-benefit analyses of foot-and-mouth disease

Economic principles of cost-benefit analysis, stemming from neo-classical economic theory and welfare economics, are presented. These principles are applied to the specific situation of an epidemic disease in an exporting country. Then, published cost-benefit analyses of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) are reviewed. It is clear that researchers often do not explicitly indicate the point of view of the analysis and that some methods can be criticized.     

An economic model for on-farm decision support of management to prevent infectious disease introduction into dairy farms

A more-closed farming system can be a good starting point for eradication of infectious diseases from within a herd. The economic implications of a more-closed farming system will not always be obvious to farmers. The management decisions are related to different parts of the farm and are farm-specific. To support these decisions, a model was developed of the economic consequences of a more-closed system (a simple static and deterministic design was used). The risk factors in the model were based solely on bovine herpesvirus type 1 (BHV1) but losses due to introduction of BVDV, L. hardjo, and S. dublin were added to the model. The model was verified and partly validated and a sensitivity analysis was done.

The cost to one 55-cow dairy farm that refrained from purchasing cattle, provided protective clothing to professional visitors and a temporary employee, and built and maintained a double fence around 6 ha of land to prevent over-the-fence contacts was Dfl. 4495 over 5 years. The probability of disease introduction was decreased by 74%. The prevented losses for disease introduction amounted to Dfl. 7033 over 5 years (net benefits of Dfl. 2538 over 5 years).

A more-closed system would be still beneficial when a sanitary barrier was used instead of just protective clothing, when the probability of introduction of infectious diseases was decreased, and when odds ratios in the model were replaced by more-conservative relative risks. The benefits became negative when a farm had to build and maintain a double fence around 12 ha instead of 6 ha, when the probability of introduction of all diseases was decreased by 50%, and when the estimations were based solely on BHV1.     

Pre-sowing treatment for breaking dormancy in Acer velutinum Boiss. seed lots

Acer velutinum Boiss is a valuable tree species native to Iran, and its seeds possess physiological dormancy that hampers seedling production in the nursery for large-scale reforestation efforts. The aim of this study was to determine the optimal dormancy breaking treatments for A. velutinum seeds. We conducted a factorial experiment involving six seed lots collected along an elevation gradient from 300 to 1800 m at 300 m interval and four cold-moist stratification periods (0, 4, 8 and 16 weeks) at 4℃ and 70% relative humidity. The result shows that the germination of cold-moist stratified seeds was significantly (p < 0.0001) higher than the control for all seed lots. The highest germination capacity was recorded after 16 weeks of cold-moist stratification for all seed lots (68% 88% depending on the seed lot) except those collected from mid altitude sites (600 and 900 m) that germinated equally well (≥ 75%) after 4and 8-week of clod-moist stratification compared to the other seed lots. The mean germination time was significantly shorter (12 to 19 days, depending on the seed lot) for seeds stratified for 16 weeks than for untreated seeds. It can be concluded that: (1) cold-moist stratification for 16 weeks is the best pre-sowing treatment for breaking dormancy in A. velutinum seeds; and (2) seeds should be collected from mid altitude sites (600 and 900 m) to get more than 80% germination within 15 days, and these seed lots even required shorter cold-moist stratification period(eight weeks) than other seed lots.