A dynamic, optimal disease control model for foot-and-mouth disease: I. Model description

A dynamic optimization model was developed and used to evaluate alternative foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) control strategies. The model chose daily control strategies of depopulation and vaccination that minimized total regional cost for the entire epidemic duration, given disease dynamics and resource constraints. The disease dynamics and the impacts of control strategies on these dynamics were characterized in a set of difference equations; effects of movement restrictions on the disease dynamics were also considered. The model was applied to a three-county region in the Central Valley of California; the epidemic relationships were parameterized and validated using the information obtained from an FMD simulation model developed for the same region. The optimization model enables more efficient searches for desirable control strategies by considering all strategies simultaneously, providing the simulation model with optimization results to direct it in generating detailed predictions of potential FMD outbreaks.     

An analysis of an early-warning system to reduce abortions in dairy cattle in Denmark incorporating both financial and epidemiologic aspects

Emergency preparedness relies on the ability to detect patterns in rare incidents in an early stage of an outbreak in order to implement relevant actions. Early warning of an abortion storm as a result of infection with a notifiable disease, e.g. brucellosis, bovine viral diarrhea (BVD) or infectious bovine rhinotracheitis (IBR), is a significant surveillance tool. This study used data from 507 large Danish dairy herds. A modified two-stage method for detecting an unusual increase in the abortion incidence was applied to the data. An alarm was considered true if an abortion were detected in the month following the alarm month, otherwise false. The total number of abortions that could potentially be avoided if effective action were taken ranged from 769 (22.9%) to 10 (0.3%), as the number of abortions required to set the alarm increased from 1 to 6. The vast majority of abortions could, however, not be predicted, much less prevented, given this early-warning system. The false to true alarm ratio was reduced when the number of abortions that set the alarm increased. The financial scenarios evaluated demonstrated that the value of an abortion, the cost of responding to an alarm and the efficiency of the actions are important for decision making when reporting an alarm. The presented model can readily be extended to other disease problems and multiple-time periods.     

A study of appetite, digestion and growth in juvenile green turtle (Chelonia mydas L.) fed on artificial diets

One-year-old immature green turtles (500–900 g) were kept at 25°C in recirculating seawater. When deprived of food for 108 h and then offered floating trout pellets, they consumed a satiation meal (S g) described by the equation S = 0.025 W^0.96 where W is wet body weight in g. When food was offered at different deprivation times after satiation, maximum meals were taken after 60–72 h and corresponded to 2.5% body weight. Longer deprivation (108 h) led to reduced intake of 1.9–2% body weight. Gastric emptying was measured using X-radiography or chromic oxide to label the faeces. Complete stomach emptying required 110 ± 11 h S.D. and maximum appetite occurred when the stomach was estimated to be 80–95% empty. The average time for a meal to be voided from the alimentary tract was 176 ± 16 h S.D. Diets containing 40–50% protein and 4.2–5 kcal/gram were assimilated with apparent efficiencies of 76 ± 6% S.D. and 86 ± 6% for energy and protein nitrogen, respectively. A preliminary estimate for an energy budget for these animals based on a 23 day growth period accounted for 90% of the daily food intake as:

100 I39M + 32E

where known daily intake (I calories) is compared with measures or estimates of metabolic rate (M), growth (G) and excreted wastes (E). Although this balance is similar to that of herbivorous fish, the turtle has slower feeding and digestion rates than its teleost counterparts.     

Most fish destined for fishmeal production are food‐grade fish

Marine fisheries target and catch fish both for direct human consumption (DHC) as well as for fishmeal and fish oil, and other products. We derived the fractions used for each for 1950–2010 by fishing country, and thus provide a factual foundation for discussions of the optimal use of fisheries resources. From 1950 to 2010, 27% (~20 million tonnes annually) of globally reconstructed marine fisheries landings were destined for uses other than DHC. Importantly, 90% of fish destined for uses other than DHC are food‐grade or prime food‐grade fish, while fish without a ready market for DHC make up a much smaller proportion. These findings have implications for how we are using fish to feed ourselves or, more appropriately, how we are not using fish to feed ourselves.     

Energy and resource consumption of land-based Atlantic salmon smolt hatcheries in the Pacific Northwest (USA)

This paper evaluates the resource and energy requirements of six different types of land-based, hatchery production systems located in the U.S. Pacific Northwest: flow-through with a gravity water supply, flow-through with a pumped water supply, flow-through with pure oxygen, partial reuse system, partial reuse with heating, and a reuse system for the production of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) smolts. Key parameters used in the evaluation include direct energy, indirect energy, transportation energy, greenhouse gas emissions, and pollutant discharges.Power (electricity and natural gas) and feed energy accounted for the majority of the required energy for all the rearing option evaluated. The sum of the fixed capital and chemicals components accounted for less than 2–12% of the total energy budget for any rearing option. The energy efficiency (energy output/energy input) of the six options ranges from 0.97% for flow-through with pumped supply to 3.49% for the flow-through with gravity supply. The rearing options with the three highest energy efficiencies were flow-through with gravity supply (3.49%), partial reuse (2.75%), and reuse (2.64%).On a kg of smolt produced basis, the six rearing options showed a wide range in performance. The reuse system had the lowest water (2 m³ kg^− 1) and land (0.13 m² kg^− 1) requirements and the third lowest total energy requirement (288 MJ kg^− 1). The partial reuse system had the second lowest total power requirement (276 MJ kg^− 1), a low land requirement (0.21 m² kg^− 1), and moderate water requirements (33 m³ kg^− 1). The partial reuse with temperature control had the second highest total power requirement (657 MJ kg^− 1) and land and water requirements similar to the partial reuse system without temperature control. The flow-through system with pumped water supply had the highest water (289 m³ kg^− 1), land (2.19 m² kg^− 1), and energy requirements (786 MJ kg^− 1) of any of the rearing options. By comparison, the flow-through system with gravity water supply had the lowest energy requirement (218 MJ kg^− 1), a moderate land requirement (0.78 m² kg^− 1), and a high water requirement (214 m³ kg^− 1). The ranking of the six rearing options based capital and operating costs are likely to be quite different from those based on energy, water, and greenhouse gas emissions.     

Marker‐assisted parentage analysis reveals high individual selfing rates in tetraploid red clover genotypes selected for seed yield

Seed yield is a major breeding target in tetraploid red clover. We investigated if marker‐assisted parentage analysis can identify progeny plants with two high seed‐yielding parents in tetraploid red clover and if this technique is more advantageous than traditional half‐sib selection. Parentage analysis was successfully performed on the progeny from the 10% highest seed‐yielding genotypes from a second‐cycle family selection trial: 16.0% of progeny were identified with a high seed‐yielding father. However, progeny plants with two high seed‐yielding parents did not produce more seeds than traditionally selected progeny (27.3 g vs. 30.7 g/plant, respectively). The 10% highest seed‐yielding genotypes displayed on average 2% self‐fertilization. Four genotypes were self‐fertile with individual selfing rates up to 20%. Our results discourage the use of marker‐assisted parentage analysis to improve seed yield in tetraploid red clover when the material has been preselected for seed yield. Breeders should be aware that intensive selection for seed yield in tetraploid red clover may inadvertently lead to selection for increased self‐fertility, which may increase inbreeding in the long term.     

Animal movement varies with resource availability,landscape configuration and body size: a conceptual model and empirical example

Landscape Ecology - Animals must move to find food, shelter and mates, and escape predation and competition. Changes in landscape configuration and resource availability can disrupt natural...     

Parsimoniously modelling perennial vegetation suitability and identifying priority areas to support China's re-vegetation program in the Loess Plateau: Matching model complexity to data availability

The Chinese Central government's policy to re-vegetate large areas of the Loess Plateau is currently being rapidly implemented at the provincial, prefecture, county, township, and village levels of government. Managers at these five levels of government need access to information to assist them to plan the land use change prior to performing on-ground activities. To this end, the suitability of 38 predominately native species in the 113,000 km² Coarse Sandy Hilly Catchments (CSHC) has been mapped at a 100 m resolution. In this data-sparse region, this was achieved by using a five-variable spatial overlay approach as we were able to readily access the required environmental variables and rule-set defining the species’ requirements (or tolerances). As the rules did not consider optimal growth they were possibly ‘too inclusive’, so the spatial extent of areas suggested for re-planting was refined by defining ‘target areas’ for trees, shrubs and grasses based on precipitation, aspect, landform, and slope. In the land-use planning criteria developed here we suggest that hill-slopes and gullies with slopes greater than or equal to 15° (defined from a 100 m resolution DEM) be left for natural succession. Due to lateral flow of water, sediment and nutrients from these steep slope and gullies, further prioritising re-vegetation target areas to the zone adjacent to and down slope from these steep portions of the landscape reduces sediment entering the river network with a minimal decrease of regional stream flow. These two functions (mapping species suitability and locating where priority and target re-vegetation activities should be undertaken) are available at a 100 m resolution for the entire CSHC by accessing a bilingual decision support tool called ReVegIH (Re-Vegetation Impacts on Hydrology). Finally, an ecohydrological model was used to simulate changes in average annual stream flow originating from the CSHC based on implementing the ‘target’ and ‘priority’ area re-vegetation activities within the constraints of two land limits.