Multi-model comparison on the effects of climate change on tree species in the eastern U.S.: results from an enhanced niche model and process-based ecosystem and landscape models

Context

Species distribution models (SDM) establish statistical relationships between the current distribution of species and key attributes whereas process-based models simulate ecosystem and tree species dynamics based on representations of physical and biological processes. TreeAtlas, which uses DISTRIB SDM, and Linkages and LANDIS PRO, process-based ecosystem and landscape models, respectively, were used concurrently on four regional climate change assessments in the eastern Unites States.

Objectives

We compared predictions for 30 species from TreeAtlas, Linkages, and LANDIS PRO, using two climate change scenarios on four regions, to derive a more robust assessment of species change in response to climate change.

Methods

We calculated the ratio of future importance or biomass to current for each species, then compared agreement among models by species, region, and climate scenario using change classes, an ordinal agreement score, spearman rank correlations, and model averaged change ratios.

Results

Comparisons indicated high agreement for many species, especially northern species modeled to lose habitat. TreeAtlas and Linkages agreed the most but each also agreed with many species outputs from LANDIS PRO, particularly when succession within LANDIS PRO was simulated to 2300. A geographic analysis showed that a simple difference (in latitude degrees) of the weighted mean center of a species distribution versus the geographic center of the region of interest provides an initial estimate for the species’ potential to gain, lose, or remain stable under climate change.

Conclusions

This analysis of multiple models provides a useful approach to compare among disparate models and a more consistent interpretation of the future for use in vulnerability assessments and adaptation planning.

     

Sowing time and direct seeding success of native tree species for restoring tropical forest ecosystems in northern Thailand

New Forests - Direct seeding (sowing seeds directly into ground) is potentially a cost-effective method of forest restoration that could replace or complement conventional tree planting, under...     

Selective silencing of foreign DNA with low GC content by the H-NS protein in Salmonella

Horizontal gene transfer plays a major role in microbial evolution. However, newly acquired sequences can decrease fitness unless integrated into preexisting regulatory networks. We found that the histone-like nucleoid structuring protein (H-NS) selectively silences horizontally acquired genes by targeting sequences with GC content lower than the resident genome. Mutations in hns are lethal in Salmonella unless accompanied by compensatory mutations in other regulatory loci. Thus, H-NS provides a previously unrecognized mechanism of bacterial defense against foreign DNA, enabling the acquisition of DNA from exogenous sources while avoiding detrimental consequences from unregulated expression of newly acquired genes. Characteristic GC/AT ratios of bacterial genomes may facilitate discrimination between a cell's own DNA and foreign DNA.     

Movement patterns of Brook Trout in a restored coastal stream system in southern Massachusetts

Coastal Brook Trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) populations are found from northern Canada to New England. The extent of anadromy generally decreases with latitude, but the ecology and movements of more southern populations are poorly understood. We conducted a 33‐month acoustic telemetry study of Brook Trout in Red Brook, MA, and adjacent Buttermilk Bay (marine system) using 16 fixed acoustic receivers and surgically implanting acoustic transmitters in 84 individuals. Tagged Brook Trout used the stream, estuary (50% of individuals) and bay (10% of individuals). Movements into full sea water were brief when occurring. GAMM models revealed that transitions between habitat areas occurred most often in spring and fall. Environmental data suggest that use of the saline environment is limited by summer temperatures in the bay. Movements may also be related to moon phase. Compared to more northern coastal populations of Brook Trout, the Red Brook population appears to be less anadromous overall, yet the estuarine segment of the system may have considerable ecological importance as a food resource.     

Main stem movement of Atlantic salmon parr in response to high river temperature

Atlantic salmon become thermally stressed when water temperatures exceed 23 °C. To alleviate this stress, they behaviourally thermoregulate by moving to patches of cold water, often forming large aggregations. These patches are known as thermal refuges. Given the consensus that climate change will increase temperatures in Atlantic salmon catchments, thermal refuges will become increasingly important in minimising summer mortalities. While the behaviour of salmonids within thermal refuges is fairly well understood, less is known about their main stem movement in search of thermal refuges or its thermal and temporal cues. We detail the results of a PIT telemetry study to investigate the main stem movement behaviour of thermally stressed Atlantic salmon parr in a temperature‐impacted river. PIT antennas placed around two thermal refuges and at the upstream and downstream limits of their surrounding reach were used to record the movement of salmonids during a heatwave. We observed parr movement at the upstream and downstream antennas 135 min prior to the occurrence of the midpoint of aggregations in the thermal refuges, indicating that Atlantic salmon parr make reach‐scale movements in search of cool water prior to aggregating. Logistic regression showed that the number of degree hours >28 °C predicted the occurrence of main stem movement with a good degree of accuracy, indicating that this temperature represents a fundamental threshold causing Atlantic salmon parr to move towards cool water. Such data could be instrumental in allowing river managers to place limits on human activity within rivers, allowing salmon populations time to recover following heat stress events.     

Products from the sensitised photo-oxidation of 2-dimethylamino-5,6-dimethylpyrimidin-4-ol

The products from the methylene blue sensitised photo-oxidation of 2-dimethylamino-5,6-dimethylpyrimidin-4-ol (I) in deuterochloroform/deuteroacetone have been investigated. A zwitterion and a hydroperoxide are formed initially, with the zwitterion predominating. The zwitterion compound degrades or reacts in the solid state on silica gel to give further products.     

Preliminary studies on the insecticidal activity and wash-fastness of twelve pyrethroid treatments impregnated into bednetting assayed against mosquitoes

The insecticidal properties of twelve pyrethroid preparations impregnated into polyester netting were compared, before and after washing, with a view to assessing their suitability for treating bednets (mosquito nets) in the field. Bioassays were carried out by exposing the mosquitoes, Anopheles gambiae Giles sensu stricto andAedes aegypti L. to netting with two concentrations of insecticide, on washed and unwashed samples, for 30 s and 3 min at different times after impregnation. Mortality was recorded after 24 h. Permethrin applied at 97°C at pH 3.4 resulted in increased uptake by polyester fibres. The performance of most insecticides on unwashed netting had not declined appreciably 12 weeks after impregnation. However, all the insecticides were depleted by washing. The treatments with best insecticidal activity after washing were cypermethrin, lambda-cyhalothrin applied at ambient temperature and normal pH and permethrin applied in a hot acid solution.     

Age-related changes in hematology and plasma chemistry values of hybrid striped bass (Morone chrysops X Morone saxatilis)

Hybrid striped bass (Morone chrysops X Morone saxatilis ) are an important aquaculture species yet there are few diagnostic tools available to assess their health. Hematology and clinical chemistry analyses are not used extensively in fish medicine due to the lack of reference intervals for various fish species, and because factors such as age can affect blood values. There is little published information regarding age-related changes in blood values of juvenile fish. It is important to evaluate juvenile fish, as this is the time they are raised in aquaculture settings. Determining age-related changes in the blood values of fishes would further develop clinical pathology as a diagnostic tool, enhancing both fish medicine and the aquaculture industry. The results of standard hematology and clinical chemistry analysis were evaluated in juvenile hybrid striped bass at 4, 6, 9, 15, and 19 months of age. Values for PCV and RBC indices were significantly lower, and plasma protein concentration was significantly higher in younger fish. Total WBC and lymphocyte counts were significantly higher in fish at 6 and 9 months of age, while neutrophil and monocyte counts were higher at 6, 9, and 15 months. Eosinophil counts were significantly higher in 9-month-old fish. The majority of hematologic values fell within previously established reference intervals, indicating that only slight modification to the intervals is necessary for evaluating hematologic results of hybrid striped bass at different ages. The following analytes deviated sufficiently from adult reference intervals to warrant separate reference values: plasma protein concentration at 4 months, WBC and lymphocyte counts at 15 and 19 months, and thrombocyte-like-cells at 9 months of age. Values for most biochemical analytes were significantly different among age groups except for creatinine and potassium concentrations. Comparisons with reference intervals were not made for biochemical analytes, because established reference intervals were not available. Age-related changes in hematologic and biochemical values of striped bass were similar to those reported for rainbow trout and mammals.     

Characterization of residues in soybeans grown in soil treated with 1,3-dichloropropene soil fumigant

The metabolism of cis- and trans-1,3-dichloropropene (1,3-D) was studied in soybean plants grown in soil treated 24 days prior to planting with [U-¹⁴C]E- and Z-1,3-dichloropropene at 380 liters ha^?1. Isolation and identification of the ¹⁴C residue from soybean plants at 84 days (forage) and 176 days (mature) after application showed that no 1,3-dichloropropene or its putative metabolites, 3-chloroallyl alcohol and 3-chloroacrylic acid, could be detected in any of the tissues. The components of the ¹⁴C residue included major plant constituents (i.e. fatty acids, protein, pigments, organic acids, sucrose and other carbohydrates, and lignin).