Multi-model comparison on the effects of climate change on tree species in the eastern U.S.: results from an enhanced niche model and process-based ecosystem and landscape models

Context

Species distribution models (SDM) establish statistical relationships between the current distribution of species and key attributes whereas process-based models simulate ecosystem and tree species dynamics based on representations of physical and biological processes. TreeAtlas, which uses DISTRIB SDM, and Linkages and LANDIS PRO, process-based ecosystem and landscape models, respectively, were used concurrently on four regional climate change assessments in the eastern Unites States.

Objectives

We compared predictions for 30 species from TreeAtlas, Linkages, and LANDIS PRO, using two climate change scenarios on four regions, to derive a more robust assessment of species change in response to climate change.

Methods

We calculated the ratio of future importance or biomass to current for each species, then compared agreement among models by species, region, and climate scenario using change classes, an ordinal agreement score, spearman rank correlations, and model averaged change ratios.

Results

Comparisons indicated high agreement for many species, especially northern species modeled to lose habitat. TreeAtlas and Linkages agreed the most but each also agreed with many species outputs from LANDIS PRO, particularly when succession within LANDIS PRO was simulated to 2300. A geographic analysis showed that a simple difference (in latitude degrees) of the weighted mean center of a species distribution versus the geographic center of the region of interest provides an initial estimate for the species’ potential to gain, lose, or remain stable under climate change.

Conclusions

This analysis of multiple models provides a useful approach to compare among disparate models and a more consistent interpretation of the future for use in vulnerability assessments and adaptation planning.

     

Step-wise drops in modularity and the fragmentation of exploited marine metapopulations

Context

Many nearshore species are distributed in habitat patches connected only through larval dispersal. Genetic research has shown some spatial structure of such metapopulations and modeling studies have shed light onto possible patterns of connectivity and barriers. However, little is known about human impact on their spatial structure and patterns of connectivity.

Objectives

We examine the effects of fishing on the spatial and temporal dynamics of metapopulations of sedentary marine species (red sea urchin and red abalone) interconnected by larval dispersal.

Methods

We constructed a metapopulation model to simulate abalone and sea urchin metapopulations experiencing increasing levels of fishing mortality. We performed the modularity analysis on the yearly larval connectivity matrices produced by these simulations, and analyzed the changes of modularity and the formation of modules over time as indicators of spatial structure.

Results

The analysis revealed a strong modular spatial structure for abalone and a weak spatial signature for sea urchin. In abalone, under exploitation, modularity takes step-wise drops on the path to extinction, and modules breakdown into smaller fragments followed by module and later metapopulation collapse. In contrast, sea urchin showed high modularity variation, indicating high- and low-mixing years, but an abrupt collapse of the metapopulation under strong exploitation.

Conclusions

The results identify a disruption in larval connectivity and a pattern of collapse in highly modular nearshore metapopulations. These results highlight the ability of modularity to detect spatial structure in marine metapopulations, which varies among species, and to show early changes in the spatial structure of exploited metapopulations.

     

Environmental heterogeneity and biotic interactions as potential drivers of spatial patterning of shorebird nests

Context

Species distributions are driven by a wide variety of abiotic and biotic factors, including nest placement for breeding individuals. As such, the spatial distribution of nests within a landscape can reflect environmental heterogeneity, habitat preferences, or even interactions with predators and other species.

Objectives

We determined the extent to which environmental heterogeneity and predation risk accounted for the observed spatial distribution of nests.

Methods

We assessed the spatial distribution of 112 nests of a migratory shorebird, the Hudsonian Godwit (Limosa haemastica), at Beluga River, Alaska, from 2009 to 2012, and explicitly tested for the relative influence of habitat characteristics and predation risk on nest locations. We also evaluated the effect of nest location, distance to conspecific nests, and proximity to roads on nest fate using 64 nests that were monitored through completion.

Results

Hudsonian Godwit nests were clustered across the landscape despite a lack of significant spatial autocorrelation (i.e., patchiness) in vegetation characteristics at either the micro- or landscape scale. Nest fate also was not predicted by either the distance to the nearest conspecific neighbor or proximity to roads. Thus, neither habitat characteristics nor predation risk explained the clustering of godwit nests.

Conclusions

These results suggest that godwits may select nest locations based more on social cues than underlying heterogeneity in vegetation or predation risk. As such, intra- and inter-specific interactions should be considered when developing management plans for species of conservation concern.

     

Assessing wild bees in perennial bioenergy landscapes: effects of bioenergy crop composition,landscape configuration,and bioenergy crop area

Context

Wild bee populations are currently under threat, which has led to recent efforts to increase pollinator habitat in North America. Simultaneously, U.S. federal energy policies are beginning to encourage perennial bioenergy cropping (PBC) systems, which have the potential to support native bees.

Objectives

Our objective was to explore the potentially interactive effects of crop composition, total PBC area, and PBC patches in different landscape configurations.

Methods

Using a spatially-explicit modeling approach, the Lonsdorf model, we simulated the impacts of three perennial bioenergy crops (PBC: willow, switchgrass, and prairie), three scenarios with different total PBC area (11.7, 23.5 and 28.8% of agricultural land converted to PBC) and two types of landscape configurations (PBC in clustered landscape patterns that represent realistic future configurations or in dispersed neutral landscape models) on a nest abundance index in an Illinois landscape.

Results

Our modeling results suggest that crop composition and PBC area are particularly important for bee nest abundance, whereas landscape configuration is associated with bee nest abundance at the local scale but less so at the regional scale.

Conclusions

Strategies to enhance wild bee habitat should therefore emphasize the crop composition and amount of PBC.

     

Connectivity and habitat type shape divergent dispersal behavior in a desert-dwelling fish

Context

Dispersal has important fitness consequences for individuals, populations, and species. Despite growing theoretical insights into the evolution of dispersal, its behavioral underpinnings remain empirically understudied, limiting our understanding of the extent and impact of responses to landscape-level heterogeneity of environments, and increasing the risk of inferring species-level responses from biased population sampling.

Objectives

We asked if predictable ecological variation among naturally fragmented arid waterbodies is correlated with disparate dispersal responses of populations of the desert goby Chlamydogobius eremius, which naturally inhabits two habitat “types” (permanent springs, ephemeral rivers), and different levels of hydrological connectivity (high and low) that potentially convey different costs and benefits of dispersal.

Methods

To test for possible behavioral divergence between such populations, we experimentally compared the movement behaviors (correlates of emigration and exploration) of wild-caught fish. We used two biologically relevant spatial scales to test movement relevant to different stages of the dispersal process.

Results

Behavior differed at both spatial scales, suggesting that alternative dispersal strategies enable desert gobies to exploit diverse habitat patches. However, while emigration was best predicted by the connectivity (flood risk) of fish habitats, exploration was linked to their habitat type (spring versus river).

Conclusions

Our findings demonstrate that despite a complex picture of ecological variation, key landscape factors have an overarching effect on among-population variation in dispersal traits. Implications include the maintenance of within-species variation, potentially divergent evolutionary trajectories of naturally or anthropogenically isolated populations, and the direction of future experimental studies on the ecology and evolution of dispersal behavior.

     

Occupancy pattern of a long-horned beetle in a variegated forest landscape: linkages between tree quality and forest cover across spatial scales

Context

Interactions between landscape-scale processes and fine-grained habitat heterogeneity are usually invoked to explain species occupancy in fragmented landscapes. In variegated landscapes, however, organisms face continuous variation in micro-habitat features, which makes necessary to consider ecologically meaningful estimates of habitat quality at different spatial scales.

Objectives

We evaluated the spatial scales at which forest cover and tree quality make the greatest contribution to the occupancy of the long-horned beetle Microplophorus magellanicus (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) in a variegated forest landscape.

Methods

We used averaged data of tree quality (as derived from remote sensing estimates of the decay stage of single trees) and spatially independent pheromone-baited traps to model the occurrence probability as a function of multiple cross-scale combinations between forest cover and tree quality (with scales ranging between 50 and 400 m).

Results

Model support and performance increased monotonically with the increasing scale at which tree quality was measured. Forest cover was not significant, and did not exhibit scale-specific effects on the occurrence probability of M. magellanicus. The interactive effect between tree quality and forest cover was stronger than the independent (additive) effects of tree quality and particularly forest cover. Significant interactions included tree quality measured at spatial scales ≥200 m, but cross-scale interactions occurred only in four of the seven best-supported models.

Conclusions

M. magellanicus respond to the high-quality trees available in the landscape rather than to the amount of forest per se. Conservation of viable metapopulations of M. magellanicus should consider the quality of trees at spatial scales >200 m.

     

Landscape dynamics of floral resources affect the supply of a biodiversity-dependent cultural ecosystem service

Context

Cultural ecosystem services, many of which depend on biodiversity, are recognized as important but seldom quantified biophysically across landscapes. Furthermore, many ecosystem service models are static, and the supply of cultural ecosystem services may be misrepresented if seasonal shifts in biotic communities are ignored.

Objectives

We modeled landscape dynamics of wildflower blooms in a temperate montane landscape to determine (1) how floral resources (wildflower species richness, abundance, timing, and presence of charismatic species) changed over the growing season, (2) how projected wildflower viewing hotspots varied over space and time, and (3) how spatial shifts in floral resources affected potential public access to wildflower viewing.

Methods

Data were collected at 63 sites across a rural-to-urban gradient in the Southern Appalachian Mountains (USA). Generalized linear models were used to identify factors affecting floral resources at two temporal scales. Floral resources were projected across the landscape and hotspots of wildflower viewing were quantified using overlay analysis.

Results

Floral resources were affected by topoedaphic conditions, climate, and surrounding building density and changed seasonally. Seasonal models revealed locational shifts in ecosystem service hotspots, which changed the proportion of hotspots accessible to the public and identified wildflower-viewing opportunities unnoticed by static models.

Conclusion

Relationships between landscape gradients, biodiversity, and ecosystem service supply varied seasonally, and our models identified cultural ecosystem service hotspots otherwise obscured by simple proxies. Landscape models of biodiversity-based cultural ecosystem services should include seasonal dynamics of biotic communities to avoid under- or over-emphasizing the importance of particular locations in ecosystem service assessments.

     

Edge effects in tropical dry forests of Madagascar: additivity or synergy?

Context

The study of habitat fragmentation is complex because multiple, potentially synergistic, ecological processes may be acting simultaneously. Further, edge effects themselves may be complex in that additivity from multiple edges can give rise to heterogeneous nearest–edge gradients.

Objectives

We used heat diffusion as a proxy for additive edge effects in two study landscapes in order to test whether two key observations recently attributed to synergy between edge and area effects could be more simply explained by additivity; namely, steeper edge gradients in larger fragments and variation in slopes of species–area relationships as a function of distances to fragment edges.

Methods

We sampled forest structure in northwestern Madagascar at various distances from the edge in fragments and continuous forest and used an inverse modelling approach to parameterize the model. In addition, we applied the model to data from a published study of beetle communities in fragmented forests in New Zealand.

Results

With increasing proximity to edges, woody stem densities decreased and, as predicted, smaller fragments had lower stem densities and less steep edge gradients than larger ones. The model successfully predicted shifts in species–area relationships as a function of nearest–edge distances for beetle species, although observed richness for forest specialists in the smallest fragments was lower than predicted.

Conclusions

Two key observations attributed to synergy between edge and area effects were explained by edge additivity. The model is particularly useful in that it can help to disentangle the complex sets of processes acting in fragmented landscapes.

     

Preparation and characterizations of polypyrrole on liquid ammonia pre-treated wool fabric

Wool fabric was treated with liquid ammonia at -40 °C for 30 and 60 s prior to the application of polypyrrole (PPy). The polymer was deposited on wool fiber using the chemical oxidation method with 0.02 and 0.05 mol/l (Py) monomer concentration and FeCl₃ as a catalyst. Functional groups of wool samples were analyzed using FT-IR, and surface morphology was investigated using SEM micrographs. Properties such as water absorbency, surface resistivity, abrasion resistance, weight add-on, and air permeability of coated specimens were explored. The FT-IR outcomes revealed the liquid ammonia pre-treatment changed the amount of amide I (NH), cystic acid, cystic monoxide, and dioxide content of the fiber. SEM micrographs revealed the descaling of wool surface after pre-treatment and smooth coating of polymer. Pre-treatment of wool in liquid ammonia improved absorbency of wool fabric with respect to the treatment duration. The surface resistivity of wool fabric decreased with the increase of monomer concentration and pre-treatment duration. The results of abrasion resistance confirmed that the pre-treated fabric exhibited lower loss of polymer after 200 cycles of abrasion. The weight of the fabric was increased and air permeability decreased when the monomer concentration and liquid ammonia pre-treatment duration was increased.