Planning for the future: identifying conservation priority areas for Iberian birds under climate change

Context

Species are expected to shift their distributions in response to global environmental changes and additional protected areas are needed to encompass the corresponding changes in the distributions of their habitats. Conservation policies are likely to become obsolete unless they integrate the potential impacts of climate and land-use change on biodiversity.

Objectives

We identify conservation priority areas for current and future projected distributions of Iberian bird species. We then investigate the extent to which global change informed priority areas are: (i) covered by existing protected area networks (national protected areas and Natura 2000); (ii) threatened by agricultural or urban land-use changes.

Methods

We use outputs of species distributions models fitted with climatic data as inputs in spatial prioritization tools to identify conservation priority areas for 168 bird species. We use projections of land-use change to then discriminate between threatened and non-threatened priority areas.

Results

19% of the priority areas for birds are covered by national protected areas and 23% are covered by Natura 2000 sites. The spatial mismatch between protected area networks and priority areas for birds is projected to increase with climate change. But there are opportunities to improve the protection of birds under climate change, as half of the priority areas are currently neither protected nor in conflict with urban or agricultural land-uses.

Conclusions

We identify critical areas for bird conservation both under current and climate change conditions, and propose that they could guide the establishment of new conservation areas across the Iberian Peninsula complementing existing protected areas.

     

Matrix transformation alters species-area relationships in fragmented coastal forests

Context

Ecological theory suggests that large habitat fragments should harbour more species than small fragments. However, this may depend on the surrounding matrix. Matrices in fragmented landscapes may either amplify or reduce area effects, which could influence predicted extinctions based on species-area relationships (SARs).

Objective

To determine the influence of matrix type on SARs.

Methods

We surveyed birds within 59 coastal forest fragments in two matrix types, anthropogenic (South Africa) and natural (Mozambique). We classified species as forest specialists or habitat generalists and fitted species-area models to compare how SAR slopes differed among matrix types. We also calculated nestedness and evenness to determine if these varied among matrix type and used logistic regressions to identify species-specific responses to matrix type.

Results

For habitat generalists, SARs were weak within both matrices, while for forest specialists it was strong in the anthropogenic but weak in the natural matrix. In the former, the SAR was similar to those recorded for real islands within archipelagos. Forest specialist assemblages were nested by area within anthropogenic, but not natural matrices. Matrix type did not influence evenness. Area only affected the occurrence of one species when the matrix was natural, compared to 11 species when it was anthropogenic.

Conclusions

Forest specialist bird species conformed to island biogeographic predictions of species loss in forest fragments embedded in anthropogenic, but not natural matrices. Extinctions from small forest fragments might be prevented by conserving natural- or restoring anthropogenic matrices, as well as by increasing forest area.

     

Connectivity analysis as a tool for assessing restoration success

Context

Methods for measuring restoration success that include functional connectivity between species’ populations are rare in landscape ecology and restoration practices. We developed an approach that analyzes connectivity between populations of target species and their dispersal probabilities to assess restoration success based on easily accessible input data. Applying this method to landscape development scenarios can help optimize restoration planning.

Objectives

We developed an assessment for restoration success and restoration planning based on functional connectivity between species’ populations and spatially explicit scenarios. The method was used in a case study to test its applicability.

Methods

Based on data on available habitat, species’ occurrence and dispersal ranges, connectivity metrics and dispersal probabilities for target species are calculated using the software Conefor Sensinode. The metrics are calculated for scenarios that reflect possible changes in the landscape to provide a basis for future restoration planning. We applied this approach to floodplain meadows along the Upper Rhine for four plant species and three future scenarios.

Results

In the case study, habitats of the target species were poorly connected. Peucedanum officinale and Sanguisorba officinalis were more successful in recolonizing new habitats than Iris spuria and Serratula tinctoria. The scenarios showed that restoration of species-rich grassland was beneficial for dispersal of the target species. As expected in the agriculturally dominated study area, restoration of former arable land significantly increased dispersal probabilities.

Conclusions

In the case study, the developed approach was easily applicable and provided reasonable results. Its implementation will be helpful in decision-making for future restoration planning.

     

Reading past landscapes: combining modern and historical records,maps, pollen-based vegetation reconstructions,and the socioeconomic background

Context

Anthropogenic and environmental changes are reshaping landscapes across the globe. In this context, understanding the patterns, drivers, and consequences of these changes is one of the central challenges of humankind.

Purpose

We aim to test the possibilities of combining modern multidisciplinary approaches to reconstruct the land-cover and linking the changes in land-cover to socioeconomic shifts in southern Estonia over the last 200 years.

Methods

The historical records from five, and maps from six time periods and 79 pollen-based land-cover reconstructions from four lakes are used to determine the land-cover structure and composition and are thereafter combined with the literature based analyses of socioeconomic changes.

Results

All information sources recorded similar changes in the land-cover. The anthropogenic deforestation was comparable to today’s (approximately 50%) during the nineteenth century. Major political and socioeconomic changes led to the intensification of agriculture and maximal deforestation (60–85%) at the beginning of the twentieth century. The land nationalisation following the Soviet occupation led to the reforestation of the less productive agricultural lands. This trend continued until the implementation of European Union agrarian subsidies at the beginning of the twenty first century.

Conclusions

Pollen-based reconstructions provide a trustworthy alternative to historical records and maps. Accounting for source specific biases is essential when dealing with any data source. The landscape’s response to socioeconomic changes was considerable in Estonia over the last 200 years. Changes in land ownership and the global agricultural market are major drivers in determining the strength and direction of the land-cover change.

     

Behavioral and social mechanisms behind pattern formation: an experimental study of animal movement

Context

Although animal movement behaviors are influenced by spatial heterogeneity, such behaviors can also generate spatial heterogeneity via interactions with the emergent spatial structure and other individuals (i.e., the social landscape).

Objective

Elucidate the behavioral and ecological mechanisms of pattern formation in a homogeneous resource landscape.

Methods

We analyzed the movement pathways and space-use patterns of the lesser grain borer (Rhyzopertha dominica) within homogeneous resource landscapes (wheat kernels). Experimental trials consisted of individual beetles foraging alone or paired with a member of the same or different sex.

Results

We identified two sources of pattern formation: (1) beetles were attracted to areas where they or another beetle had previously fed, leading to increased patchiness via positive reinforcement; and (2) the presence of conspecifics affected whether and at what scales patchiness occurred. Solitary males had lower rates of movement and less tortuous pathways than solitary females, but both sexes generated fine-scale patchiness in the resource distribution. Patchy resource landscapes were also generated by male–female pairs, but not by same-sex pairings. Paired females in particular exhibited significantly greater daily net displacements and more random space use than solitary females.

Conclusions

Pattern formation is a complex process, even in a relatively simple, homogeneous resource landscape. In particular, patterns created by individuals when foraging alone versus in pairs underscores how social interactions can fundamentally alter the resultant pattern of heterogeneity that emerges in resource landscapes.

     

Habitat amount and quality,not patch size,determine persistence of a woodland-dependent mammal in an agricultural landscape

Context

The classical theory of island biogeography explains loss of species in fragmented landscapes as an effect of remnant patch size and isolation. Recently this has been challenged by the habitat amount and habitat continuum hypotheses, according to which persistence in modified landscapes is related to total habitat amount rather than habitat configuration or the ability of species to use all habitats to varying degrees. Distinguishing between these theories is essential for effective conservation planning in modified landscapes.

Objective

Identify which factors of habitat type, amount and configuration predict the persistence of a keystone woodland specialist, the eastern bettong Bettongia gaimardi, in a fragmented landscape.

Method

In the Midlands region of Tasmania we carried out camera surveys at 62 sites in summer and winter. We included habitat and landscape features to model whether habitat amount or patch size and isolation influenced the presence of the eastern bettong, and to measure effects of habitat quality.

Results

Habitat amount within a 1 km buffer was a better predictor of occupancy than patch size and isolation. Occupancy was also affected by habitat quality, indicated by density of regenerating stems.

Conclusion

Our results support the habitat amount hypothesis as a better predictor of presence. For a species that is able to cross the matrix between remnant patches and utilise multiple patches, the island biogeography concept does not explain habitat use in fragmented landscapes. Our results emphasize the value of small remnant patches for conservation of the eastern bettong, provided those patches are in good condition.

     

Models of upland species’ distributions are improved by accounting for geodiversity

Context

Recent research suggests that novel geodiversity data on landforms, hydrology and surface materials can improve biodiversity models at the landscape scale by quantifying abiotic variability more effectively than commonly used measures of spatial heterogeneity. However, few studies consider whether these variables can account for, and improve our understanding of, species’ distributions.

Objectives

Assess the role of geodiversity components as macro-scale controls of plant species’ distributions in a montane landscape.

Methods

We used an innovative approach to quantifying a landscape, creating an ecologically meaningful geodiversity dataset that accounted for hydrology, morphometry (landforms derived from geomorphometric techniques), and soil parent material (data from expert sources). We compared models with geodiversity to those just using topographic metrics (e.g. slope and elevation) and climate data. Species distribution models (SDMs) were produced for ‘rare’ (N?=?76) and ‘common’ (N?=?505) plant species at 1 km² resolution for the Cairngorms National Park, Scotland.

Results

The addition of automatically produced landform geodiversity data and hydrological features to a basic SDM (climate, elevation, and slope) resulted in a significant improvement in model fit across all common species’ distribution models. Adding further geodiversity data on surface materials resulted in a less consistent statistical improvement, but added considerable conceptual value to many individual rare and common SDMs.

Conclusions

The geodiversity data used here helped us capture the abiotic environment’s heterogeneity and allowed for explicit links between the geophysical landscape and species’ ecology. It is encouraging that relatively simple and easily produced geodiversity data have the potential to improve SDMs. Our findings have important implications for applied conservation and support the need to consider geodiversity in management.

     

Integration of ecosystem services into a conceptual spatial planning framework based on a landscape ecology perspective

Context

The study of ecosystem services has extended its influence into spatial planning and landscape ecology, the integration of which can offer an opportunity to enhance the saliency, credibility, and legitimacy of landscape ecology in spatial planning issues.

Objectives

This paper presents a conceptual framework suitable for spatial planning in human dominated environments supported by landscape ecological thinking. It seeks to facilitate the integration of ecosystem services into current practice, including landscape metrics as suitable indicators.

Methods

A literature review supported the revision of existing open questions pertaining to ecosystem services as well as their integration into landscape ecology and spatial planning. A posterior reflection of the current state-of-the-art was then used as a basis for developing the spatial planning conceptual framework.

Results and conclusion

The framework is articulated around four phases (characterisation, assessment, design, and monitoring) and three concepts (character, service, and value). It advocates integration of public participation, consideration of “landscape services”, the inclusion of ecosystem disservices, and the use of landscape metrics for qualitative assessment of services. As a result, the framework looks to enhance spatial planning practice by providing: (i) a better consideration of landscape configuration in the supply of services (ii) the integration of anthropogenic services with ecosystem services; (iii) the consideration of costs derived from ecosystems (e.g. disservices); and (iv) an aid to the understanding of ecosystem services terminology for spatial planning professionals and decision makers.

     

Divergent rates of change between tree cover types in a tropical pastoral region

Context

Forest cover change analyses have revealed net forest gain in many tropical regions. While most analyses have focused solely on forest cover, trees outside forests are vital components of landscape integrity. Quantifying regional-scale patterns of tree cover change, including non-forest trees, could benefit forest and landscape restoration (FLR) efforts.

Objectives

We analyzed tree cover change in Southwestern Panama to quantify: (1) patterns of change from 1998 to 2014, (2) differences in rates of change between forest and non-forest classes, and (3) the relative importance of social-ecological predictors of tree cover change between classes.

Methods

We digitized tree cover classes, including dispersed trees, live fences, riparian forest, and forest, in very high resolution images from 1998 to 2014. We then applied hurdle models to relate social-ecological predictors to the probability and amount of tree cover gain.

Results

All tree cover classes increased in extent, but gains were highly variable between classes. Non-forest tree cover accounted for 21% of tree cover gains, while riparian trees constituted 31% of forest cover gains. Drivers of tree cover change varied widely between classes, with opposite impacts of some social-ecological predictors on non-forest and forest cover.

Conclusions

We demonstrate that key drivers of forest cover change, including topography, road distance and historical forest cover, do not explain rates of non-forest tree cover change. Consequently, predictions from medium-resolution forest cover change analyses may not apply to finer-scale patterns of tree cover. We highlight the opportunity for FLR projects to target tree cover classes adapted to local social and ecological conditions.