Logistic regression models for human-caused wildfire risk estimation: analysing the effect of the spatial accuracy in fire occurrence data

About 90% of the wildland fires occurred in Southern Europe are caused by human activities. In spite of these figures, the human factor hardly ever appears in the definition of operational fire risk systems due to the difficulty of characterising it. This paper describes two spatially explicit models that predict the probability of fire occurrence due to human causes for their integration into a comprehensive fire risk–mapping methodology. A logistic regression technique at 1 × 1 km grid resolution has been used to obtain these models in the region of Madrid, a highly populated area in the centre of Spain. Socio-economic data were used as predictive variables to spatially represent anthropogenic factors related to fire risk. Historical fire occurrence from 2000 to 2005 was used as the response variable. In order to analyse the effects of the spatial accuracy of the response variable on the model performance (significant variables and classification accuracy), two different models were defined. In the first model, fire ignition points (x, y coordinates) were used as response variable. This model was compared with another one (Kernel model) where the response variable was the density of ignition points and was obtained through a kernel density interpolation technique from fire ignition points randomly located within a 10 × 10 km grid, which is the standard spatial reference unit established by the Spanish Ministry of Environment, Rural and Marine Affairs to report fire location in the national official statistics. Validation of both models was accomplished using an independent set of fire ignition points (years 2006–2007). For the validation, we used the area under the curve (AUC) obtained by a receiver-operating system. The first model performs slightly better with a value of AUC of 0.70 as opposed to 0.67 for the Kernel model. Wildland–urban interface was selected by both models with high relative importance.     

Susceptibility of the Mexican bean beetle <Emphasis Type="Italic">Epilachna varivestis</Emphasis> Mulsant (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae) to endemic isolates of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Beauveria bassiana</Emphasis> (Balsamo) Vuillemin (Hypocreales: Clavicipitaceae)

Entomopathogenic fungi represent excellent candidates for biological insecticides. Among the many entomopathogenic fungi, Beauveria bassiana (Balsamo) Vuillemin (Hypocreales: Clavicipitaceae) is one of the most promising species. Here, we report the results of infection studies performed using four B. bassiana native isolates (Bb37, Bb38, Bb40, and Bb45) compared with the commercial product Mycotrol^® (strain GHA) on adult Mexican bean beetle Epilachna varivestis Mulsant (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae), one of the most important pests of bean production in Mexico. First, single concentration (1 × 10⁸ conidia mL^?1) assays were carried out using all isolates applied using an immersion method. Examinations at 10 days after inoculation indicated that isolates Bb37, Bb38, and Bb40 significantly reduced adult survival, causing 60–75% mortality compared to the commercial strain GHA (33%) and control (29%). Second, using two selected isolates (Bb37 and Bb40), the mean lethal concentration values (LC₅₀) were estimated for third instar larvae and adult E. varivestis. The LC₅₀ values for Bb37 and Bb40 isolates decreased 5.26-fold and 3.19-fold, respectively, in third instars compared with adults. However, such difference for Bb40 isolate was not significant. Finally, an experiment, to compare the median survival time (MST) values between third instar and adult E. varivestis, was conducted using Bb37 and Bb40 at 1 × 10⁹ conidia mL^?1. MST values were significantly reduced against larvae (87 and 100 h) compared with adults (130 and 134 h) by Bb37 and Bb40, respectively. We conclude that native isolates of B. bassiana represent an important alternative for the control of E. varivestis. However, to demonstrate its effectiveness under field conditions, detailed studies are needed.     

Hepatic immune response in calves during acute subclinical infection with bovine viral diarrhoea virus type 1

Eight colostrum-deprived calves aged 8-12 weeks were inoculated intranasally with a non-cytopathic strain of bovine viral diarrhoea virus (BVDV) genotype-1 and the effects on the hepatic immune response were studied. Two calves were sacrificed at each of 3, 6, 9 and 14 days post-inoculation (dpi) and two uninoculated animals were used as negative controls. BVDV was detected in hepatic macrophages and monocytes from 3 to 14dpi and in Küpffer cells (KCs) from 6 to 14dpi. Increases in the numbers of MAC387(+) KCs and monocytes, but not interstitial macrophages, differentiated by morphological features, were evident in the liver following inoculation with BVDV. There was a substantial increase in the number of monocytes positive for tumour necrosis factor (TNF)-α, but only small increases in the numbers of TNF-α(+) KCs and interstitial macrophages and interleukin (IL)-6(+) monocytes, KCs and interstitial macrophages. There was an increase in the number of interstitial CD3(+) T lymphocytes in the liver, but no substantial changes in the numbers of circulating CD3(+) T lymphocytes, interstitial or circulating CD4(+) or CD8(+) T lymphocytes, or CD79αcy(+) B lymphocytes. Serum haptoglobin and serum amyloid A increased transiently at 12dpi. Upregulation of some pro-inflammatory cytokines by hepatic macrophages is evident in subclinical acute BVDV type 1 infection in calves.     

Expression of 14-3-3 σ protein in normal and neoplastic canine mammary gland

14-3-3 σ protein is a negative cell cycle regulator, with both reduced and elevated levels associated with cancer in humans. This study assessed the expression of this protein in canine mammary tissues using immunohistochemistry and Western blotting. 14-3-3 σ was detected in 97% of the mammary tissue samples examined and was found in both myoepithelial (MECs) and epithelial (ECs) cells. Expression levels were elevated and reduced in neoplastic ECs and MECs, respectively (P < 0.001). Intense expression of 14-3-3 σ was detected in neoplastic ECs infiltrating blood vessels and lymph nodes and suggests a possible role for this protein in the malignant transformation of mammary neoplasms. Moreover, double immunostaining for 14-3-3 σ and the MEC – specific marker p63, confirmed that 14-3-3 σ is a highly sensitive marker of MECs since all p63 – positive cells were also positive for 14-3-3 σ. However, this protein is not exclusive to MECs as ECs also labelled positively.     

Transmission of methicillin resistant Staphylococcus aureus among pigs during transportation from farm to abattoir

The prevalence of methicillin resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) in pigs at abattoirs is higher than in pigs sampled on farms. This study investigated whether MRSA negative pigs can become MRSA positive during transportation from the farm to the abattoir after exposure to other pigs and environmental sources of MRSA. Nasal swabs were collected from four batches of pigs during loading at the farm, on arrival at the abattoir and after stunning. Environmental wipes were taken from lorries after transporting pigs and from lairages after holding pigs. All pigs (n = 117) tested MRSA negative before transportation. On arrival at the abattoir, 12/117 (10.3%) pigs in two batches tested MRSA positive. In lorries that tested positive after transportation, the prevalence of MRSA positive pigs was 21.1%, whereas no MRSA was detected in pigs that had been transported in lorries that tested negative after transportation. At stunning, all batches and 70/117 (59.8%) pigs tested MRSA positive. Pigs can become MRSA positive in the short period of time during transportation from the farm to stunning at the abattoir.     

Germinability of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Vicia sativa</Emphasis> L. seeds After 10 Years of Storage in a Base Collection

The germinability of the Vicia sativa L. seed samples in the base collection at the Centro de Recursos Fitogenéticos (Spain) was controlled in 1986 and 1996. The mean germination of the collection, assessed by One-Sample T Test, was higher than 85%, suggesting its viability was properly maintained along the period. However, changes in germination along the same period assessed by Paired-Samples T Test showed a slight decrease in its global germinability. More data on the viability of stored seeds worldwide – including communication of unpublished data – are needed. Viability assays should be performed according to standard, internationally coordinated protocols and statistical analysis, within an adequate documentation system that assures the integrity of accession information.     

Polymorphism and Genetic Diversity for the Seed Storage Proteins in Spanish Cultivated Einkorn Wheat (Triticum monococcum L. ssp. monococcum)

The seed storage protein composition of one collection of cultivated einkorn wheat (Triticum monococcum L. ssp. monococcum) of Spanish origin has been analysed by SDS-PAGE and A-PAGE. Three allelic variants were detected for the Glu-A1^m, whereas up to six alleles were detected for the Glu-A3^m. For the gliadins, 7 and 14 alleles for the Gli-A1^m and Gli-A2^m were found between the evaluated accessions. Internal variability was detected in some of these materials, which could be related to the landrace nature of them. Up to 48 different genotypes based on the origin and seed storage protein composition have been identified. Further researches on these materials must be carried out for determining the variability degree in morphological traits that could complement the evaluation for their safeguard.     

Color and phenolic compounds of a young red wine. Influence of wine-making techniques, storage temperature, and length of storage time

The purpose of this work was to determine the influence of vinification technique (maceration temperature and clarification method), storage temperature, and length of storage time on the phenolic compounds and color of young red wines. Multivariate analysis of variance and principal component analysis pointed to significant differences among all of the variables according to vinification technique and length of storage time. Storage temperature did not cause significant differences between some of the variables. The best color characteristics were obtained when low-temperature maceration wines were clarified with polyvinylpyrrolidone. Color quality also improved with lower storage temperature.     

Bioactive cinchona alkaloids from Remijia peruviana

Three known Cinchona alkaloids of the quinine type, quinine (1), cupreine (2), cinchonine (3), and the possible artifact cinchonine-HCl (3-HCl), along with two new ones, acetylcupreine (4) and N-ethylquinine (5), have been isolated from the bark of Remijia peruviana (Rubiaceae). Their stereochemical structures were established by high resolution NMR spectroscopy. Alkaloids 2-4 had antifeedant effects on Leptinotarsa decemlineata with varying potencies. Compound 4 was cytotoxic to both insect Sf9 and mammalian CHO cells after 48 h of incubation, while 3-HCl had stronger and selective cytotoxicity to Sf9. Quinine 1 had a moderate to low effect on Trypanosoma cruzi. Tumoral cells were also affected by these alkaloids, with 4 and 3-HCl being the most cytotoxic to all the cell lines tested. Overall, the 8R, 9S configurations, as in 3 and 3-HCl, as well as the C-6'acetylated alkaloid 4, with an 8S, 9R configuration, showed stronger biological effects.     

Multiresidue analysis of pesticides in soil by gas chromatography with nitrogen-phosphorus detection and gas chromatography mass spectrometry

A rapid multiresidue method for the simultaneous determination of 25 fungicides and insecticides in soil was developed. Soil samples are extracted by sonication with a water-acetonitrile mixture, and the pesticides are partitioned into dichloromethane. Final determination was made by gas chromatography (GC) with nitrogen-phosphorus detection (NPD). Confirmation analysis of pesticides was carried out by GC-MS in the selected ion monitoring (SIM) mode. The identification of compounds was based on retention time and on comparison of the primary and secondary ions. The average recovery by the GC-NPD method obtained for these compounds varied from 68.5% to 112.1% with a relative standard deviation between 1.8% and 6.2%. The GC-NPD method presents good linearity over the range assayed 50-2000 microg/L, and the detection limit for the pesticides studied varied from 0.1 to 10.4 microg/kg. The proposed method was used to determine pesticide levels in soil samples from experimental greenhouse pepper cultivation.