Comparing fire spread algorithms using equivalence testing and neutral landscape models

We demonstrate a method to evaluate the degree to which a meta-model approximates spatial disturbance processes represented by a more detailed model across a range of landscape conditions, using neutral landscapes and equivalence testing. We illustrate this approach by comparing burn patterns produced by a relatively simple fire spread algorithm with those generated by a more detailed fire behavior model from which the simpler algorithm was derived. Equivalence testing allows objective comparisons of the output of simple and complex models, to determine if the results are significantly similar. Neutral landscape models represent a range of landscape conditions that the model may encounter, allowing evaluation of the sensitivity and behavior of the model to different landscape compositions and configurations. We first tested the model for universal applicability, then narrowed the testing to assess the practical domain of applicability. As a whole, the calibrated simple model passed the test for significant equivalence using the 25% threshold. When applied to a range of landscape conditions different from the calibration scenarios, the model failed the tests for equivalence. Although our particular model failed the tests, the neutral landscape models were helpful in determining an appropriate domain of applicability and in assessing the model sensitivity to landscape changes. Equivalence testing provides an effective method for model comparison, and coupled with neutral landscapes, our approach provides an objective way to assess the domain of applicability of a spatial model.     

Molecular mapping of soybean seed tocopherols in the cross ‘OAC Bayfield’ × ‘OAC Shire’

Soybean (Glycine max [L.] Merr.) is cultivated primarily for its protein and oil in the seed. In addition, soybean seeds contain nutraceutical compounds such as tocopherols (vitamin E), which are powerful antioxidants with health benefits. The objective of this study was to identify molecular markers linked to quantitative trait loci (QTL) that affect accumulation of soybean seed tocopherols. A recombinant inbred line (RIL) population derived from the cross ‘OAC Bayfield’ × ‘OAC Shire’ was grown in three locations over 2 years. A total of 151 SSR markers were polymorphic of which a one‐way analysis of variance identified 42 markers whereas composite interval mapping identified 26 markers linked to tocopherol QTL across 17 chromosomes. Individual QTL explained from 7% to 42% of the total phenotypic variation. Significant two‐locus epistatic interactions were identified for a total of 122 combinations in 2009 and 152 in 2010. The multiple‐locus models explained 18.4–72.2% of the total phenotypic variation. The reported QTL may be used in marker‐assisted selection (MAS) to develop high tocopherol soybean cultivars.     

Spatial resilience of forested landscapes under climate change and management

Context

Resilience, the ability to recover from disturbance, has risen to the forefront of scientific policy, but is difficult to quantify, particularly in large, forested landscapes subject to disturbances, management, and climate change.

Objectives

Our objective was to determine which spatial drivers will control landscape resilience over the next century, given a range of plausible climate projections across north-central Minnesota.

Methods

Using a simulation modelling approach, we simulated wind disturbance in a 4.3 million ha forested landscape in north-central Minnesota for 100 years under historic climate and five climate change scenarios, combined with four management scenarios: business as usual (BAU), maximizing economic returns (‘EcoGoods’), maximizing carbon storage (‘EcoServices’), and climate change adaption (‘CCAdapt’). To estimate resilience, we examined sites where simulated windstorms removed >70% of the biomass and measured the difference in biomass and species composition after 50 years.

Results

Climate change lowered resilience, though there was wide variation among climate change scenarios. Resilience was explained more by spatial variation in soils than climate. We found that BAU, EcoGoods and EcoServices harvest scenarios were very similar; CCAdapt was the only scenario that demonstrated consistently higher resilience under climate change. Although we expected spatial patterns of resilience to follow ownership patterns, it was contingent upon whether lands were actively managed.

Conclusions

Our results demonstrate that resilience may be lower under climate change and that the effects of climate change could overwhelm current management practices. Only a substantial shift in simulated forest practices was successful in promoting resilience.

     

How has the state-of-the-art for quantification of landscape pattern advanced in the twenty-first century?

Landscape Ecology - Landscape ecology was founded on the idea that there is a reciprocal relationship between spatial pattern and ecological processes. I provide a retrospective look at how the...     

Pesticide residues in heterogeneous plant populations, a model-based approach applied to nematicides in banana (Musa spp.)

Nematicides are widely used to control plant-parasitic nematodes in intensive export banana (Musa spp.) cropping systems. Data show that the concentration of fosthiazate in banana fruits varies from zero to 0.035 g kg-1, under the maximal residue limit (MRL=0.05 mg kg-1). The fosthiazate concentration in fruit is described by a Gaussian envelope curve function of the interval between pesticide application and fruit harvest (preharvest interval). The heterogeneity of phenological stages in a banana population increases over time, and thus the preharvest interval of fruits harvested after a pesticide application varies over time. A phenological model was used to simulate the long-term harvest dynamics of banana at field scale. Simulations show that the mean fosthiazate concentration in fruits varies according to nematicide application program, climate (temperature), and planting date of the banana field. This method is used to assess the percentage of harvested bunches that exceed a residue threshold and to help farmers minimize fosthiazate residues in bananas.     

Extraction, processing, and storage effects on curcuminoids and oleoresin yields from Curcuma longa L. grown in Jamaica

Aromatic diarylheptanoid compounds from Curcuma longa Linn grown in Jamaica were quantified by UV-vis spectrophotometry and high-performance liquid chromatographic (HPLC) analyses. The oleoresin yields from ethanolic extracts were quantified and evaluated with regard to the effects of the type of postharvesting process and the type of extraction method conducted on the plant material. Fresh samples that were hot solvent extracted provided the highest oleoresin yields of 15.7% +/- 0.4 ( n = 3), and the lowest oleoresin yields of 7.8% +/- 0.2 ( n = 3) were from the dried milled samples that were cold solvent extracted. Data from the ASTA spectrophotometer assay confirmed that dried samples contained the highest curcuminoid content of 55.5% +/- 2.2 ( n = 6) at the fifth month of storage, and the fresh samples showed a curcuminoid content of 47.1% +/- 6.4 ( n = 6) at the third month of storage. A modified HPLC analysis was used to quantify curcumin content. Data from the HPLC analysis confirmed that the dried treated, hot extracted, room temperature stored samples had the highest curcumin content of 24.3%. A novel high-performance thin layer chromatography (HPTLC) method provided a chemical fingerprint of the C. longa with the use of a commercial curcumin standard.