Multi Criteria Assessment of Zero Residue Apple Production

During the 2008–2010 growing seasons, an alternative ‘zero residue apple production system’ was compared with integrated apple production with cvs ‘Idared’, ‘Golden Delicious’, ‘Jonagold’ and ‘Gala’ in commercial orchards at several locations throughout Slovenia, using data envelopment analysis (DEA), and multi criteria assessment by an analytical hierarchical process (AHP). The principle of the ‘zero residue apple production’ is a combination of integrated (IP) and organic apple production. During the first 3 months of the growing season (1 April–30 June), pesticides used in IP with rapid degradation (8–10 applications) were used to control pests and diseases. During the second part of the season from 1 July to harvest, organic products (6–12 applications) were employed compared with 19–25 applications overall in IP. The goal of the alternative system was to reduce the amount of applied conventional pesticides by 40 % and to minimize pesticide residues in fruits to below the limit of 0.5 % of the legal maximum residue level (MRL) or below the residue concentrations of 0.005–0.01 mg/kg and to retain the high long-term level of yield, fruit quality, and net income per hectare. The number of pesticide residues was reduced from 4.2–5.5 in IP to 1.8–3.4 in zero residue cultivation, while 3 year average yields (class 1 fruit) were 4–9 % lower than in IP. The break even prices ranged from € 0.31 for Idared in IP, € 0.34 for ‘Elstar’ of both production systems to € 0.35/kg for zero residue cultivated ‘Golden Delicious’. Overall, a price increase of just € 0.02/kg for residue free apples would make this new ‘zero residue apple production’ profitable then representing a realistic alternative to the standard integrated apple production system.     

Forecasting Apple Fruit Color Intensity with Machine Learning Methods

In this study, we focused on the possibility of forecasting the development of skin color in apples on the basis of weather forecast by using a machine learning methods. We used supervised learning and generated models via the use of six decision trees. The purpose of the research was to build models that would allow for in-practice-acceptable accuracy in the prediction of the development of fruit skin color (especial a colour parameter a*), for three apple varieties. For cv. ‘Gala, Brookfield’, the most accurate models were generated by using decision tree J48 (89.13% accuracy). For late ripening cv. ‘Fuji, Kiku 8’ and cv. ‘Braeburn, Maririred’, the most accurate model was obtained by using decision tree LMT (91.73 and 96.65% accuracy). The data confirm that the applicability of predictive models strongly depends on the accuracy of weather forecasts. In regard to the seven-day weather forecast, which was used for expert models, the accuracy of the models was, on average, reduced by 10.73%.     

The Use of Multi Criteria Models for Decision Support System in Fruit Production

The success or failure of an investment project in fruit production also depends on the selection of the fruit species and variety. When selecting the variety for the creation of a new orchard it is necessary to perform the synthesis of different data and to look at all aspects of the investment. This paper presents the application of DEX multi-criteria decision making. The model was applied on 7 varieties of plum from the western Balkans region that were assessed by experts from “The association of agricultural economists of Western Balkans” using the Delphi method.By applying this model it has been shown that the ’Stanley’ is the most suitable for starting a new orchard while the varieties ’?a?anska ljepotica’ and ’?a?anska rodna’ are also very suitable for starting new fruit orchards and they have also received the value attribute “very acceptable”.Using this model all strong and weak sides of the observed plum variety were shown. For the final selection it is necessary to conduct research at a specific micro location where all characteristics of that area would also be taken into consideration.     

Spatiotemporal dynamic of European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) in Slovenia, 1970–2005

Based on data acquired from the spatial information system Silva-SI, the majority of the entire forest area in Slovenia (22,220 forest compartments with a total area of 7446 km², classified into eight forest categories) was analysed for changes in the distribution of European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) in the period 1975–2005 using a binary logistic regression model in terms of selected site, stand and management variables. Additionally, changes in the abundance of beech in forest stands in which beech was present at the beginning and the end of the analysed period were analysed. Beech expanded its area by more than 1200 ha per year on average, i.e. the annual expansion rate amounted to 0.24%. Among the 18 studied variables, three site, four stand and no management variables were included in the binary logistic regression model of beech expansion. Beech expansion was more pronounced at lower altitudes, on sites with steep topography, and on sites with a higher proportion of beech in potential natural vegetation. The probability of beech expansion reduced by a factor of 0.54 when the distance to the nearest compartment with beech increased by 1 km. Among other stand variables, the proportion of early successional phases and the proportion of silver fir (Abies alba Mill.) and Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) also influenced the expansion of beech. During the observed period the growing stock of beech almost doubled, its proportion in total growing stock increasing from 27% to 32%. Significant differences were found in changes of beech proportion in the total growing stock among different forest categories; a decrease in the beech proportion was registered in alpine coniferous forests and thermophilous deciduous forests, while in other forest categories the proportion of beech increased. The recent development of forest stands and their current structure indicate a further expansion of beech and an increase in the proportion of beech in forest stands.     

Do changes in spatial distribution, structure and abundance of silver fir (Abies alba Mill.) indicate its decline?

Silver fir decline was investigated based on changes in spatial distribution of fir, fir abundance in forest stands, dbh (age) structure of fir, and abundance of fir regeneration. The authors used a large-scale approach to study the dynamics of silver fir over nearly 40 years. Based on Silva-SI, a spatial information system, the majority of total forest area in Slovenia was analysed for changes in the distribution of silver fir in the period 1970-2008 using artificial neural networks (ANNs), with respect to site, stand, and forest management variables. Additionally, changes in abundance of silver fir (hereafter fir) in the same period were analysed with a general linear model, while changes in the dbh structure of fir and fir regeneration were analysed with non-parametric tests. Most selected indicators confirmed the hypothesis of fir decline in the period 1970-2008, as evidenced by a reduction in the area of forests with a share of fir in the total growing stock >25% (from 18.9% to 9.5% of total area), a reduction in the share of fir in the growing stock of forest stands (from 17.5% to 7.5%), ageing of the fir population, and a disproportionate share of fir saplings in the total saplings relative to fir's share in the growing stock of forest stands. A 1.5% increase in fir distribution area in the observed period contradicts the decline hypothesis. ANNs showed that the spatiotemporal dynamics of fir was most affected by four variables: forest type, share of fir in the potential natural vegetation, mean annual precipitation, and mean annual temperature. The latter two, together with the growing stock at the start of study period, the degree of connectivity between fir stands, and bedrock type, were significant predictors of decline of fir abundance in forest stands. Significant differences in spatiotemporal dynamics and changes in fir abundance were found between forest types representing a complex of site conditions and past forest management. A further decline of abundance of fir on a large spatial scale in the next decades is expected. Conservation of fir in forest stands will depend mainly on the successful regeneration of fir and sufficient recruitment.     

Elimination of [14C]heptachlor from body stores of lactating ewes treated with ovine growth hormone

Elimination of [14C]heptachlor from body burdens of sheep was measured using mature ewes nursing single offspring, and the influence of exogenous ovine growth hormone (oGH) on elimination was studied. Six ewes (62 +/- 2.5 kg BW) were dosed (i.p.) once with [14C]heptachlor (2.04 mg/kg Bw; .88 microCi/mg heptachlor) and three were treated additionally with oGH (oGH; 5 mg/d) for 21 d. Three additional ewes served as controls. Excreta were collected each day for 21 d. Milk and blood were collected every 3rd d until ewes were euthanized at d 21. 14C activity was measured in excreta, milk, blood and tissues. Total cumulative activity of [14C]heptachlor and(or) metabolites in excreta (21 d) did not differ (P greater than .20) in ewes given oGH (25 +/- 2%) vs none (23 +/- 2%). Milk yield and protein content were unaffected (P greater than .10) by oGH. Ewes given oGH eliminated 2.2 +/- 2% of total 14C dosage into milk during 21 d, whereas ewes untreated with oGH eliminated 1.3 +/- .2% (P less than .10); total 14C activity eliminated into milk plus excreta was similar for ewes given oGH or none (P greater than .10). For all six ewes, half-times (T1/2) for distribution and elimination of 14C activity (heptachlor and metabolites) were 1.5 d and 11.7 d, respectively. Blood concentrations of 14C activity during 21 d yielded elimination half-time as 23 d. Unlike bovines, which eliminate heptachlor slowly (T1/2 approximately 70 to 80 d) and mainly into milk fat, lactating ovines eliminated heptachlor and(or) metabolites mainly into excreta and about sixfold faster than bovines.     

Yield Stability in Long-term Released Maize Hybrids FAO 100 and 200

The purpose of this study was to assess changes in yield stability of tnaize hybrids during a 20-year period and to relate them to yield changes. The data on FAO 100 and FAO 200 hybrids, released by the former Yugoslav Committee for Releasing Varieties, were utilized. Most ofthe released hybrids fell into the first and the second stability group (Francis and Kannenberg 1978). The b_i values (Finlay and Wilkinson 1963) of the released hybrids, except two from FAO 100 and four from FAO 200 group, did not differ significantly from 1.0. Also, all but one from FAO 100 and one from FAO 200 released hybrids did not differ in aj value (Shukla 1972) significantly from 0. Values of A, and aj stability parameters changed only slightly during the 20-year period. During the same time the yield ofthe FAO 100 hybrids did not change. In the FAO 200 group the yield increased, but the genetic gain was not significant. The stability parameters were not in a significant correlation with the yield.     

Influence of Alternative Copper Fungicide Formulations on Copper Content in Apple Fruits

Field trials were carried out from 2008 to 2011 at Maribor, Slovenia to determine the effect of new copper fungicide formulations on the copper content in apple fruits, separated in peel and flesh, of seven cultivars at harvest. Apple trees were treated 12?C18 times per season with formulations based on copper oxychloride or sulphate (trial standards), copper hydroxide and their complexes or chelates with amino acids, peptides, EDTA, urea, and octanoic or gluconic acids at the same rate of 200?g of pure copper ions (Cu²⁺) per hectare irrespetive of the product. Copper formulations were applied with Teejet 800067 flat fan nozzles mounted on a vertical boom of the sprayer, which gave a droplet volume median diameter (VMD) of 120 microns and 130?C180 droplet impacts per square centimeter, as determined on water sensitive papers. The new formulations of copper in the form of salts of fatty acids or organic complexes or chelates had a higher penetration rate into apple fruit tissue than the traditional formulations based on Cu-hydroxide, Cu-oxychloride and Cu-sulphate. The copper content in the fruit depended on the ratio between copper solubility in the formulation, rate of penetration into the fruit and stability of the copper fungicide deposit on the fruit surface. Despite being applied at lower hectare rates, frequent applications led to the exceeding of the permitted EC maximum residue level of 5?mg/kg fresh mass (FM). MRL was most often exceeded with the application of formulations based on Cu-octanoate and Cu-gluconate and less often in case of the application of complexes of copper with amino acids, peptides or urea. A comparison of the copper content between different cultivars showed that cv. ??Jonagold??, ??Golden Delicious?? and ??Elstar?? accumulated more cooper than other cultivars. Copper concentrations in the peel exceeded that of the flesh at least twice. The potential effects of accumulation of copper in woody tissue of bearing shoots after long-term application of highly systemic copper formulations on growth and blooming of apples are discussed too. Some apple growers may not be aware of much higher penetration rate of these new copper products (fungicides, fertilisers or plant strengtheners) and should be warned about the necessity to adapt their spraying schedules despite applications of a low hectare rates of copper, i.e. the number of treatments and proper seasonal timing, to avoid exceeding of EU MRL of copper in fruit.