Upscaling as ecological information transfer: a simple framework with application to Arctic ecosystem carbon exchange

Transferring ecological information across scale often involves spatial aggregation, which alters information content and may bias estimates if the scaling process is nonlinear. Here, a potential solution, the preservation of the information content of fine-scale measurements, is highlighted using modeled net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of an Arctic tundra landscape as an example. The variance of aggregated normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), measured from an airborne platform, decreased linearly with log(scale), resulting in a linear relationship between log(scale) and the scale-wise modeled NEE estimate. Preserving three units of information, the mean, variance and skewness of fine-scale NDVI observations, resulted in upscaled NEE estimates that deviated less than 4% from the fine-scale estimate. Preserving only the mean and variance resulted in nearly 23% NEE bias, and preserving only the mean resulted in larger error and a change in sign from CO₂ sink to source. Compressing NDVI maps by 70–75% using wavelet thresholding with the Haar and Coiflet basis functions resulted in 13% NEE bias across the study domain. Applying unique scale-dependent transfer functions between NDVI and leaf area index (LAI) decreased, but did not remove, bias in modeled flux in a smaller expanse using handheld NDVI observations. Quantifying the parameters of statistical distributions to preserve ecological information reduces bias when upscaling and makes possible spatial data assimilation to further reduce errors in estimates of ecological processes across scale.     

Comparing fire spread algorithms using equivalence testing and neutral landscape models

We demonstrate a method to evaluate the degree to which a meta-model approximates spatial disturbance processes represented by a more detailed model across a range of landscape conditions, using neutral landscapes and equivalence testing. We illustrate this approach by comparing burn patterns produced by a relatively simple fire spread algorithm with those generated by a more detailed fire behavior model from which the simpler algorithm was derived. Equivalence testing allows objective comparisons of the output of simple and complex models, to determine if the results are significantly similar. Neutral landscape models represent a range of landscape conditions that the model may encounter, allowing evaluation of the sensitivity and behavior of the model to different landscape compositions and configurations. We first tested the model for universal applicability, then narrowed the testing to assess the practical domain of applicability. As a whole, the calibrated simple model passed the test for significant equivalence using the 25% threshold. When applied to a range of landscape conditions different from the calibration scenarios, the model failed the tests for equivalence. Although our particular model failed the tests, the neutral landscape models were helpful in determining an appropriate domain of applicability and in assessing the model sensitivity to landscape changes. Equivalence testing provides an effective method for model comparison, and coupled with neutral landscapes, our approach provides an objective way to assess the domain of applicability of a spatial model.     

Graph theory in action: evaluating planned highway tracks based on connectivity measures

Maintaining connectivity among local populations in a fragmented landscape is crucial for the survival of many species. For isolated habitat patches, stochastic fluctuations and reduced gene flow can lead to high risk of extinction. The connectivity of the landscape is especially crucial for the carabid species living in the fragmented forests of the Bereg plain (NE Hungary and W Ukraine) because a highway will be constructed through the plain. Our purpose is to (1) evaluate the impacts of three possible highway tracks, (2) suggest a solution that is realistic with less impact on connectivity than other plans and (3) discuss how to decrease the disadvantageous effects of each track. Our results, based on a network analysis of landscape graph of patches and ecological corridors, indicate that the intended highway could have deleterious consequences on forest-living carabids. Relatively simple actions, like the establishment of stepping stones, could compensate for the loss of habitat connectivity and promote the survival of carabids, or minor modifications in one possible track could diminish its adverse effects. While many other studies would be needed for a comprehensive assessment of the biotic impact of the highway, we provide an example on the usefulness of network analysis for land use management. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

The concept of habitat specificity revisited

Habitat specificity indices reflect richness (α) and/or distinctiveness (β) components of diversity. The latter may be defined by α and γ (landscape) diversity in two alternative ways: multiplicatively () and additively (). We demonstrate that the original habitat specificity concept of Wagner and Edwards (Landscape Ecol 16:121–131, 2001) consists of three independent components: core habitat specificity (uniqueness of the species composition), patch area and patch species richness. We describe habitat specificity as a family of indices that may include either area or richness components, or none or both, and open for use of different types of mean in calculation of core habitat specificity. Core habitat specificity is a beta diversity measure: the effective number of completely distinct communities in the landscape. Habitat specificity weighted by species number is a gamma diversity measure: the effective number of species that a patch contributes to landscape richness. We compared 12 habitat specificity indices by theoretical reasoning and by use of field data (vascular plant species in SE Norwegian agricultural landscapes). Habitat specificity indices are strongly influenced by weights for patch area and patch species richness, and the relative contribution of rare vs. common species (type of mean). The relevance of properties emphasized by each habitat specificity index for evaluation of patches in a biodiversity context is discussed. Core habitat specificity is emphasized as an ecologically interpretable measure that specifically addresses patch uniqueness while habitat specificity weighted by species number combines species richness and species composition in ways relevant for conservation biological assessment. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Intermediate landscape disturbance maximizes metapopulation density

The viability of metapopulations in fragmented landscapes has become a central theme in conservation biology. Landscape fragmentation is increasingly recognized as a dynamical process: in many situations, the quality of local habitats must be expected to undergo continual changes. Here we assess the implications of such recurrent local disturbances for the equilibrium density of metapopulations. Using a spatially explicit lattice model in which the considered metapopulation as well as the underlying landscape pattern change dynamically, we show that equilibrium metapopulation density is maximized at intermediate frequencies of local landscape disturbance. On both sides around this maximum, the metapopulation may go extinct. We show how the position and shape of the intermediate viability maximum is responding to changes in the landscape’s overall habitat quality and the population’s propensity for local extinction. We interpret our findings in terms of a dual effect of intensified landscape disturbances, which on the one hand exterminate local populations and on the other hand enhance a metapopulation’s capacity for spreading between habitat clusters.     

Combining agent-based and stock-flow modelling approaches in a participative analysis of the integrated land system in Reichraming, Austria

The integrated modelling of coupled socio-ecological systems in land-change science requires innovative model concepts capable of grasping the interrelations between socioeconomic and natural components. Here, we discuss the integrated socio-ecological model SERD (Simulation of Ecological Compatibility of Regional Development) that was developed for the municipality of Reichraming in Upper Austria in a participative 2-year process involving local stakeholders. SERD includes three main components: (1) an agent-based actors module that simulates decisions of farmsteads, the municipal administration and other important actors; (2) a spatially explicit (GIS based) land-use module that simulates land-use change at the level of individual parcels of land and (3) an integrated socio-ecological stock-flow module that simulates carbon and nitrogen flows through both socioeconomic and ecological system compartments. We report on outcomes of a scenario analysis that outlines possible future trajectories depending on both external (e.g. agricultural subsidies and prices) and internal (e.g. innovation, willingness to co-operate) factors. We find that both external and internal factors can affect the behaviour of the integrated system considerably. Local and regional policies are found to be able to counteract adverse global socioeconomic conditions to some extent, but not to reverse the trend altogether. We also find strong interdependencies between socioeconomic and ecological components of the system. Fully evaluating these interdependencies is, however, not possible at the local scale alone and will require explicit consideration of higher-level effects in future research.     

Historical influences dominate the composition of regenerating plant communities in abandoned citrus groves in north-central Florida

The question of what determines plant community composition is fundamental to the study of plant community ecology. We examined the relative roles of historical land use, landscape context, and the biophysical environment as determinants of plant community composition in regenerating citrus groves in north-central Florida. Results were interpreted in light of plant functional traits. Herbaceous and woody plants responded differently to broad-scale variables; herbs correlated most strongly with surrounding land cover at a scale of 8 km, while the only significant determinant of woody species distributions was local land use history. There were significant correlations between herbaceous species and spatial context, habitat isolation, environmental variables, and historical variables. Partial Mantel tests indicated that each variable provided a unique contribution in explaining some of the variation in the herbaceous dataset. The correlation between woody plants and local historical variables remained significant even with other effects corrected for. In the herbaceous community, species composition was linked to functional traits much as expected from classical theory. While spatial influences in our study system are important for both woody and herbaceous plants, the primary determinant of plant community composition in regenerating citrus groves is historical land use. Our results suggest that the fine-scale mechanisms of local competition, tolerance and facilitation invoked by many classical studies may ultimately be less important than land use history in understanding current plant community composition in regenerating agricultural areas.     

Relating tradable credits for biodiversity to sustainability criteria in a dynamic landscape

Tradable biodiversity credit systems provide flexible means to resolve conflicts between development and conservation land-use options for habitats occupied by threatened or endangered species. We describe an approach to incorporate the influence of habitat fragmentation into the conservation value of tradable credits. Habitat fragmentation decreases gene flow, increases rates of genetic drift and inbreeding, and increases probabilities of patch extinction. Importantly, tradable credit systems will change the level of fragmentation over time for small and/or declining populations. We apply landscape equivalency analysis (LEA), a generalizable, landscape-scale accounting system that assigns conservation value to habitat patches based on patch contributions to abundance and genetic variance at landscape scales. By evaluating habitat trades using two models that vary the relationship between dispersal behaviors and landscape patterns, we show that LEA provides a novel method for limiting access to habitat at the landscape-scale, recognizing that the appropriate amount of migration needed to supplement patch recruitment and to offset drift and inbreeding will vary as landscape pattern changes over time. We also found that decisions based on probabilities of persistence alone would ignore changes in migration, genetic drift, and patch extinction that result from habitat trades. The general principle of LEA is that habitat patches traded should make at least equivalent contributions to rates of recruitment and migration estimated at a landscape scale. Traditional approaches for assessing the “take” and “jeopardy” standards under the Endangered Species Act based on changes in abundance and probability of persistence may be inadequate to prevent trades that increase fragmentation.