期权博弈理论在不确定性投资决策中的应用

应用期权博弈理论方法分析了存在竞争条件下的不确定性投资决策问题。建立了一个双寡头模型，用实物期权方法计算了模型中2个公司的价值，并分析了模型的均衡状态，给出了影响产品需求的随机因素位于不同区间上时。2公司的均衡状态及其最优的投资决策。分析结果表明，随着影响产品需求的随机因素值的变化2公司的最优策略是。做领导者、跟随者或者采取对二者无差别的态度；只有当随机变动值非常大时，同时投资对2公司而言才可能是最优的策略。     

Timing, duration, and transitions of the last interglacial Asian monsoon

Thorium-230 ages and oxygen isotope ratios of stalagmites from Dongge Cave, China, characterize the Asian Monsoon and low-latitude precipitation over the past 160,000 years. Numerous abrupt changes in 18O/16O values result from changes in tropical and subtropical precipitation driven by insolation and millennial-scale circulation shifts. The Last Interglacial Monsoon lasted 9.7 +/- 1.1 thousand years, beginning with an abrupt (less than 200 years) drop in 18O/16O values 129.3 +/- 0.9 thousand years ago and ending with an abrupt (less than 300 years) rise in 18O/16O values 119.6 +/- 0.6 thousand years ago. The start coincides with insolation rise and measures of full interglacial conditions, indicating that insolation triggered the final rise to full interglacial conditions.     

屡配不孕母牛发情开始后八天内血清促黄体素（LH）含量的变化

本实验采用放射免疫测定技术(RIA)分析了9头屡配不孕母牛和6头正常母牛于发情开始后8天内的血清促黄体素(LH)的含量变化。测定结果表明:屡配不孕母牛的LH排卵峰值低于正常母牛,其峰值分别为2.71±1.00ng/ml和4.70±1.71ng/ml,差异显著(P<0.025)。为了初步验证LH峰值与屡配不孕之间的关系,对20头屡配不孕母牛在发情开始至配种前肌肉注射外源性LH180IU,其配种后60天的受胎率为70％(14/20),而未用LH处理的11头屡配不孕母牛的受胎率为18％(2/11),两者差异极显著(P<0.01)。上述实验结果提示:体内LH排卵峰值降低可能是导致乳牛屡配不孕的重要原因之一。     

Fatal toxoplasmosis in sand cats (Felis margarita)

The sand cat (Felis margarita) is a small-sized felid occurring in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The sand cat captive-breeding program at the Breeding Centre for Endangered Arabian Wildlife in Sharjah, UAE, has until recently been severely compromised by very high newborn mortality rates. Two different pairs of sand cats gave birth, respectively, to one and two litters (with a total of eight kittens) between 1999 and 2006. Seven out of eight kittens died between the third and 21st wk of life. Toxoplasmosis was confirmed as the cause of death in these two litters. Adult cats had high antibody titers to Toxoplasma gondii before pregnancy, suggesting that maternal immunity did not protect the kittens against infection with T. gondii and that maternal immunity might not have prevented transplacental transmission of the parasite. This observation contrasts with what is seen in domestic cats. To date, this is the first report on confirmed fatal toxoplasmosis and prevalence of T. gondii in sand cats.     

蜡梅花cDNA文库构建及其高频出现脂转移蛋白cDNA的表达

【目的】构建蜡梅花cDNA文库，分析蜡梅脂转移蛋白基因的表达，为探索蜡梅冬季开花分子机理，分离克隆特色基因奠定基础。【方法】以蜡梅花器官为材料，用SMART cDNA Library Construction Kit 构建文库，RT-PCR分析基因表达。【结果】经测定原始文库滴度达到1.4×106 pfu/ml，扩增总文库滴度约为1010pfu/ml，重组率达到96%，插入片段在0.5 kb 以上，平均约1.1 kb，通过PCR 检测，从总文库中检测到了表达丰度不同的蜡梅PI、AP3和LTP基因的特异片段，说明所构建的文库覆盖度高、代表性强，LTP基因具有内含子，而总文库中扩增出的LTP基因不含内含子，说明所构建的cDNA文库无基因组DNA污染， LTP基因在蜡梅开花各个时期均表现较高的转录水平，与EST分析时高频率出现LTP序列的情况相符，证实所构建的文库能够反映蜡梅开花过程基因表达的基本情况。【结论】已获得高质量的蜡梅花cDNA文库，可以用于进一步的基因克隆或EST测序分析，这是首次正式报道蜡梅cDNA文库的构建。LTP基因在蜡梅开花过程中可能具有重要的生物学功能，为探索蜡梅冬季开花分子机理提供了线索。     

新疆冬小麦品种萌发期耐盐性综合评价及耐盐种质的筛选

【目的】研究不同类型盐胁迫对新疆冬小麦萌发期的影响,并进行耐盐性综合评价,为新疆小麦萌发期耐盐品种的评价和指标筛选提供理论依据。【方法】测定76份新疆冬小麦品种(系)在NaCl和NaCl∶Na₂SO₄两种不同盐胁迫条件下小麦根数、最长根长、苗高、胚芽鞘长度、发芽势、发芽率等6个性状,利用隶属函数法并通过聚类分析分别对两种盐胁迫条件下冬小麦品种(系)的耐盐性进行筛选,综合评价和筛选新疆冬小麦耐盐性。【结果】与对照处理相比,NaCl和NaCl∶Na₂SO₄两种盐胁迫对新疆冬小麦品种(系)各性状均有明显的抑制作用,其中NaCl单盐胁迫对各性状抑制作用比NaCl∶Na₂SO₄混合盐胁迫抑制程度更大。通过NaCl单盐胁迫条件下聚类分析,新疆冬小麦品种(系)按耐盐性强弱可分为高耐型(6个/占供试材料的7.89%)、耐盐型(15个/19.74%)、中耐型(16个/21.05%)、敏感性(18个/23.68%)和高敏感型(21个/27.63%)等5类。NaCl∶Na₂SO₄混合盐胁迫条件下聚类分析,新疆冬小麦品种(系)按耐盐性强弱也可分为高耐型(13个/占供试材料的17.11%)、耐盐型(10个/13.16%)、中耐型(16个/21.05%)、敏感性(26个/34.21%)和高敏感型(11个/14.47%)等5类。获得高耐NaCL单盐胁迫的品种(系)6份,占供试品种的7.89%;高耐NaCl∶Na₂SO₄混合盐胁迫的品种(系)13份,占供试品种的17.11%。【结论】两种盐胁迫条件下,350 mol/L浓度对小麦种子的萌发有抑制作用,NaCl单盐胁迫和NaCl∶Na₂SO₄混合盐胁迫均为高耐型的品种3份,均是自育品种和引进品种分别为石冬8号、洛夫林10号和新冬7号。     

武汉市桔梗科一物种新记录——卵叶异檐花

报道了武汉市外来入侵植物新记录一种,为桔梗科Campanulaceae异檐花属Triodanis卵叶异檐花Triodanis perfoliata subsp.biflora(Ruiz et Pavon)Lammers。卵叶异檐花原产于美洲,在武汉地区是首次发现,凭证标本保存于长江文明馆(武汉自然博物馆)。     

农牧交错带牧业系统波动性及影响因子分析

牧业系统波动是影响到农牧交错带农户生计和生态安全的重大问题。该研究以羊只总数为牧业系统特征变量,选取年降水量、年平均气温、有效灌溉面积、粮食播种面积、粮食总产量、当年造林面积、草地面积、植被指数、农业劳动力人数和农民人均纯收入为影响因子。用经验模态分解法获得羊只总数及其10个影响因子的波动分量和趋势量;进而运用集对分析法对羊只总数与其影响因子的相应波动分量进行对比分析。结果表明,1954—2013年盐池县羊只总数波动较大,羊只总数及其10个影响因子存在3~4、7~15、22~26、40~45 a的准周期性波动,22~26 a准周期是羊只总数波动中最重要的。对羊只总数波动影响最大的因子是粮食播种面积,其次是年降水量,二者的综合影响率占75%。年平均气温、粮食总产量和造林面积也有一定影响。羊只总数波动分量的周期越长,受农业的影响越大;越短则受气候的影响越大。经济社会对羊只总数的波动影响很小。气候因子在3、7~9和30 a准周期上影响羊只总数波动,是其主控因子;而粮食总产量、当年造林面积是羊只总数波动的反向调节因子,其他6个因子兼有主控和反向调节两方面的作用。基于以上各主要影响因子的作用机理,构建有效的农林牧复合系统将是实现盐池县牧业系统稳定发展的必然出路。     

水淹胁迫对3种紫云英生长及生理代谢的影响

为了解南方稻田绿肥紫云英对涝害的响应机制,以余干种、闽紫2号和弋江籽3个紫云英品种为试验材料,采用盆栽试验模拟水淹胁迫,研究涝害对3个品种紫云英生长及生理代谢的影响。结果表明:水淹胁迫显著降低了3个紫云英品种生物量和株高,其中弋江籽总生物量降低幅度最大,达38.1%,地上部生物量降低34.8%,地下部生物量降低40.1%。水淹胁迫下3个紫云英品种的最大光化学效率、电子传递效率、光化学猝灭系数分别降低23.2%～29.3%、8.3%～14.8%和31.5%～34.8%,非光化学猝灭系数上升41.8%～70.8%,叶片的光合活性受到抑制。水淹胁迫导致3个紫云英品种的保护酶系统活性显著升高,丙二醛地上部和地下部含量分别增加63.6%～72.0%和52.4%～63.1%。余干种、闽紫2号和弋江籽幼苗地上部的过氧化氢酶活性较对照分别提高164.0%、127.1%和121.0%,过氧化物酶分别提高30.4%、46.7%和30.7%,超氧化物歧化酶分别提高12.5%、10.2%和15.0%。通过隶属函数法对3个紫云英品种的耐涝性排序为闽紫2号＞余干种＞弋江籽。     

Spatial distribution and source apportionment of the heavy metals in the agricultural soil in a regional scale

Purpose

Understanding the spatial distribution and sources of soil heavy metals (HMs) in a large city helps prevent and control soil pollution. This study aimed to investigate the spatial patterns of soil HMs and identify their main sources in a regional scale.

Materials and methods

A total of 110 topsoil samples were collected from Tai’an City, China. Cd, Cr, Cu, Hg, Ni, Pb, and Zn concentrations in each soil sample were determined. Geostatistics, geographic information system (GIS), and positive matrix factorization (PMF) were used to explore the spatial distribution of seven soil HMs and to reveal the main sources of soil HMs in Tai’an City, respectively.

Results and discussion

Soil Cd, Cr, Pb, and Zn generally showed slight pollution levels in the study area. However, soil Hg and Cu contents reached moderate to heavy pollution levels in some areas. Soil Hg content increased from north to south across the city, and the highest Hg concentration was detected in Ningyang County. Soil Cd, Cu, and Zn distributions exhibited a similar pattern, and their contents increased from west to east; the highest Cd, Cu, and Zn concentrations were found in Xintai County. The highest soil Ni concentration was obtained in the northeast of Feicheng and Xintai counties. PMF analysis revealed the following four potential sources of agricultural soil HMs in Tai’an City: industrial and mining activities, agricultural activities, residential living activities, and business activities. Soil Hg mainly originated from residential living activities, which accounted for 75.3% of the total source. The main sources of soil Ni were residential living activities, agricultural activities, and industrial and mining activities, which account for 38.2, 27.50, and 25.1% of the total source, respectively. Soil Cu was mainly produced by agricultural activities (36.6%), followed by residential living activities (29.8%) and industrial and mining activities (25.8%).

Conclusions

PMF combined with GIS could be effectively applied to determine the main sources of HMs in agricultural soils in a regional scale.