Economic analysis of harvesting behavior using the modified Gentan probability theory

In the past studies on the Gentan probability theory, economic factors, such as the price of logs and the interest rate, have not been embedded into the derived stochastic model due to the limitation of the underlying assumptions. This has lead to misleading results of economic analysis for harvesting behavior based on the Gentan probability theory. In this paper, economic analysis of harvesting behavior was conducted by extending the Gentan probability theory. Since the proposed stochastic process can incorporate a nonstationary growth function, economic analysis of harvesting behavior was easily implemented. Experimental analysis of economic factors showed that change in the price of logs, the interest rate and harvest related costs affected the Gentan probability distribution. Although the analysis is still hypothetical, the results imply the potential use of the Gentan probability theory to predict the forest owners' harvesting behavior.     

Gentan probability analysis with a state-dependent discrete forest growth model

The previous stochastic models applied for Gentan probability estimation utilized either a stationary or nonstationary Poisson process to describe the forest owners’ harvesting behavior by means of the counting process. A nonstationary Poisson process has the advantage over a stationary Poisson process of capturing a time-dependent change of harvesting events. However, a nonstationary Poisson process can lack one preferred characteristic of the probability theory when utilizing an average growth function with an asymptotic nature of growth. That is, the sum of the derived Gentan probabilities over time does not always become unity. In this paper, we introduce a state-dependent discrete forest growth model with an asymptotic nature of growth to overcome the problem, then propose a stochastic model applied for Gentan probability estimation. The Mitscherlich type growth function is utilized. The derived probability law to capture the harvesting behavior is shown to be the binomial probability law. The derived probabilities prove to sum up to unity over time.     

Defining the forest landowner’s utility–loss compensative subsidy level for a biodiversity object

New, cost efficient and voluntary biodiversity protection tools may require bidding price definition on part of the seller. Both the seller and the buyer can withdraw from negotiations if they find that the conditions of the protection contract are unacceptable. However, it can be very difficult for non-industrial, private landowners to define the bidding price demand for their biodiversity objects. The terms of the protection contract, the production possibilities of the forest holding, the forest owner’s multiple forest management goals and their substitutability, and the possible monetary subsidy paid for biodiversity protection should all be simultaneously taken into account when estimating the owner’s price demand for protecting the biodiversity object. This study strives to provide relief in resolving this problem by presenting an approach in which the landowner’s utility–loss compensative subsidy can be defined based on the owner’s forest-holding level utility function and the production possibilities of the holding. The properties of the approach are illustrated by four planning cases in which the length of the protection period (permanent or 20-year temporary protection) and the holding-level goals were varied. The utility functions of the cases were derived by selecting numeric goal variables for the goals, and by defining weights and sub-utility functions for these variables. Varying subsidies for protecting an old-growth spruce stand were included into the simulation of “No treatment” schedules for the examined stand, and the holding-level total utility was maximized for every price level. The utility–loss compensative subsidy was found when the holding-level total utility equaled the total utility achieved in the plan where the stand was regenerated. This subsidy, however, is not necessarily the exact price that the owner should ask from the buyer; all prices above the defined subsidy level will increase owner’s utility if the buyer accepts them. It was concluded that the presented approach provided consistent results in the four cases and that it thus offers valuable decision support for current biodiversity-protection programs.     

Interactive Method for Supporting Forest Owners in Biodiversity Protection Decisions

Voluntary biodiversity protection tools have been adopted for practical use in many countries where non-industrial private forest ownership includes invaluable biodiversity resources. This has created a new kind of decision problem for individual forest owners: they should be able to define their conditions for entering into a biodiversity protection contract including sometimes a predetermined subsidy. This study presents a holding-level method for examining this decision problem. The method is based on utilization of interactive optimization where the possible subsidy has been included in the protection (no treatment) alternative of the examined stand. Generally, interactive optimization means that the landowner pinpoints the best plan by interactively studying and learning the production possibilities of his/her forest holding. Following changes made to the objective function by the forest owner, new solutions are presented for forest owners’ evaluation. If the “No treatments” option is selected in optimization for these areas, the forest owner would benefit more—in the current location of the production frontier and with the current subsidy—from entering into the protection contract than from cutting the specific forest area. In the case study, we demonstrate that the values of the holding-level goals, production possibilities of the planning area and the levels of the subsidy have a significant effect on the optimal decisions relating to biodiversity protection on the stand level.     

Attitudes of small-scale forest owners to their properties in an ageing society: Findings of survey in Yamaguchi prefecture, Japan

Populations of most developed countries have been ageing, and the populations of Japanese mountain villages are estimated to have reached into a super-ageing society. In particular, because forestry is unprofitable and due to the economic recession in Japan, many small-scale forest owners face the problems of ageing. For policy-makers, it is important to assess the socioeconomic impacts of forest owners’ ageing in order to ensure the sustainable management of forests. A survey was conducted of forest owners in Yamaguchi Prefecture, which is famous for overall depopulation and ageing of the rural population. It was found that 83% of 687 plantation forest owners who responded in the survey were 60 years or older and 76% did not have forestry income over the past three years, but 81% had kept up ownership of their forest as the traditional family property. In terms of forest management intentions, the respondents were found to consist of four types, namely ‘family management’, ‘commissioned management’, ‘de-accession’ and ‘possession without proper management’. Differences in evaluations of hypothetical policies were found among the four types.     

Calculation of yields on a national level by combining yields of each prefecture using the Gentan probability

The purpose of this study was to calculate the harvesting volumes on a national level by combining yields of each prefecture using the Gentan probability. The calculation was conducted as follows. First, the Gentan probabilities were estimated for the 22 prefectures that had reliable harvesting data by the maximum likelihood method. Second, these prefectures were clustered into 3 groups by the agglomerative hierarchical clustering method based on the estimated Gentan probability patterns, and then the synthesized Gentan probabilities were estimated for each cluster from the aggregated stand areas and harvested areas of prefectures which belonged to the same cluster. Third, the other 25 prefectures without reliable harvesting data were classified into the preceding 3 clusters by discriminant analysis with socioeconomic explanatory variables. Finally, harvesting area and volume were calculated for each prefecture based on the estimated Gentan probabilities: The former 22 prefectures employed the Gentan probabilities derived from their own harvesting data while the latter 25 prefectures employed the synthesized Gentan probabilities corresponding to their cluster number classified. The validation results showed that the supposed method caused the percentage error of 2.11% in total of all 47 prefectures towards the corresponding forestry statistics in a log volume. It was sufficiently precise compared with the previous prediction results of around 20% percentage error on a national level.     

林龄空间理论与减反率法应用初探——湖南省会同集体林区森林采伐量预估研究

本文以会同县过去5年森林采伐情况为例,论证了应用林龄空间理论——减反率法预估集体林采伐量的可能性,并提供一个线性规划经营方案作为对照。通过比较,认为在规划期较长的条件下,减反率法预估采伐量与线性规划方案所得收获量一致。     

The Values and Objectives of Private Forest Owners and Their Influence on Forestry Behaviour: The Implications for Entrepreneurship

There are many factors that determine what forestry activities forest owners carry out in their forest properties and that influence whether forest owners engage in entrepreneurial activity. This paper explores whether the values and objectives of forest owners influence their forestry behaviour and their engagement in entrepreneurial activity. This is done through a review of the literature on private forest owners’ typologies based on owners’ objectives. The review reveals that typologies typically divide forest owners into two main groups. The primary objective of the first group of owners is production (of wood and non-wood goods and services) usually, although not exclusively, so as to generate economic activity. The primary objective of the second group is consumption (of wood and non-wood goods and services). There is a tacit assumption in the studies reviewed that goals and objectives do influence forestry behaviour but few studies have actually assessed whether this is the case. The general finding is that forest owners whose objectives are timber production and who are business-oriented are more likely to manage and harvest their stands. No research focusing on the link between owners’ objective and wider entrepreneurial activity in forests was found.     

Challenges of Organizing Private Forest Owners in Serbia

Small-scale forestry in Serbia is characterized by high fragmentation of properties, a large number of parcels and forest owners. Numerous activities for private forest owners in Serbia supported by the State, FAO and CEPF have resulted in an increased interest of owners in forming private forest owners’ associations (PFOA). The goal of this paper is to explore preconditions that are necessary for organizing private forest owners in Serbia into effective associations. In order to reach this goal, results of PRIFORT project were used. The over-arching research questions of this paper are: “What is the level of interest among forest owners in forming owners’ associations?”; “Why has forest owner interest in organizing developed so slowly?” and “What are the necessary preconditions for the development of private forest owners’ organizations in the country?” In order to answer these questions, quantitative survey with 42 close, open and Likert scale questions was conducted. Sample size was determined following Malhotra’s proportion method and, in total, 350 private forest owners, from nine municipalities were interviewed. Results of this paper show that majority of respondents are very little or not at all aware of existing legislation. Almost half of respondents consider that their interests are not represented well. Although about 50% of interviewed forest owners miss interest organization, only 0,3% are members of PFOA. More than 70% are ready to join association, if it would provide some economic advantages.     

The Economic Monitoring Network for Private Forests in Hungary

The private forestry sector in Hungary was reintroduced in the early 1990s, as a part of the initial economic reform package aimed at transforming the economy from central planning to a market economy. The fundamental changes required a complete restructuring of the forestry sector, which is still going on, with sound information becoming ever more important. The Economic Monitoring Network for Private Forests in Hungary (EMN-PF) is supporting a price and cost reference database, financial analysis of forestry processes, forestry holding analysis and estimation of the economic output of the private forestry sector. Each output is based on data collecting methods that are balanced between accuracy and ease of data collection. EMN-PF applies surveys and uses open databases as data sources. Forest owners’ and integrators’ estimates are an easy way of collecting data, but the accuracy of data is difficult to control. The analysis of forest holdings can be based on the annual financial reports of forest enterprises with pure forest activity. These reports are already existing documents, which therefore are easy to collect in large numbers, but do not provide highly detailed data. Based on the National Forest Inventory and the results of the financial analysis, the economic output of the private forestry sector can be estimated.     

Cooperation in private forestry of post-soviet system: Forest owners’ cooperatives in Lithuania

The current state of cooperation in private forestry in Lithuania is examined, with a focus on the analysis of objectives, organisational structure and the ways forest owners’ cooperatives operate. A postal survey has been used as a main research instrument, the questionnaire consisting of a series of multiplechoice close-ended questions. This paper provides insights into the state forest enterprises and other private companies operating in the private forestry sector, and places forest owners’ cooperatives in a broader context of the private forestry sector. A typical forest owner’s cooperative in Lithuania has up to 10 members and about 20 clients to whom services are provided. The leaders of cooperatives indicate that the optimal number of clients using their services should not exceed 40. The main stated objectives of cooperatives are the provision of services to their members under the most attractive conditions, uniting members, and earning a profit for the members. These activities of cooperatives revolve around timber harvesting and trade. It is concluded that the process of cooperation of private forest owners in Lithuania is rather slow, although positive development can be observed.     

Ecology-oriented House Builders and FSC-certified Domestic Timber in Japan

Forest owners’ cooperatives are one of the leading organizations in the forest sector in Japan. Yusuhara Forest Owners’ Cooperative (YFOC) in Kochi Prefecture is one of such examples, which obtained FSC forest certification as a resource manager of the forest, which belongs to more than 1,200 small-scale forest owners. YFOC has successfully expanded sales of FSC-labeled timber in recent years. Most of their certified timber is purchased by house builders in urban cities including Osaka. This paper analyzes who desires FSC-certified timber from YFOC and why. Six case studies are reported, which reveal that ecology-oriented house builders are interested in using FSC certified timber because of traceability of the timber, price advantage from direct dealing, environmentally sound forest management of YFOC, and relatively high quality of the timber.     

Values placed on forest property benefits by Swedish NIPF owners: Differences between members in forest owner associations and non-members

A forest property represents benefits to the owner, the nature of which varies between resident and non-resident owners. Forest owners’ associations can be considered as an arrangement to increase the benefit from forest ownership by helping the forest owner to increase profitability. Thus, it can be assumed that associated forest owners value forest property benefits differently to non-associated owners. This study examines differences between members and non-members, and residents and non-residents, with respect to how they value the various forest property benefits. Responses from a landholder survey reveal differences concerning forestry income, maintaining contact with native locality, and keeping up a tradition in forestry. It is concluded that a challenge for the associations is to develop the organisation in accordance with the forest owners’ dissimilar property interests.     

A normal yield table forLarix gmelinh in Daxin ganling based on the maximum growth rate method

Normal yield tables forLarix gmelimii (Rupr) Rupr. were constructed from 228 temporary sample plots. A normal stand was defined as having the maximum growth rate parameter, based on the theory of forest growth. Basal area growth curves were described with Richard’s equation according to Von-Bertalanffy’s growth theory and allometric law. The growth rate parameter was found to be K, so a normal stand had maximum K. Thus, the basal area growth curve of a normal stand was obtained simply by increasing K. A normal yield table forL. gmelinii of Daxinganling natural forest was then constructed.     

Integration of remote sensing-based bioenergy inventory data and optimal bucking for stand-level decision making

This paper tests the reliability of a biomass prediction procedure which combines aerial data collection, biometric models and optimisation for forest management planning. Tree stock information is obtained by predicting species-specific diameter and height distributions by a combination of field sampling, ALS data and aerial photographs. The subsequent steps in the chain are (1) assignment of the plots to forestry operation classes by means of remote sensing-based tree stock estimates, (2) estimation of the biomass components removed by simulating forestry operations, and (3) estimation of forest owners’ income flow from optimised bucking of the species-specific diameter distributions. The error effects caused by these steps are analysed, and the applicability of remote sensing–based data collection for biomass inventories and planning is assessed. The approach used for assigning the plots to operation classes resulted in moderate accuracies (75%). The reliability estimates indicated quite poor performance when predicting the biomass components removed in forest treatments, with RMSEs of 33.0–69.4% in the case of final cutting and 76.9–228.0% in the case of thinning. The relative RMSEs of the above-ground biomass estimates of the standing stock were about 19%. The relative bias for the biomasses removed was 10.0–88.6% and that for the standing stock biomasses 0.0%. When optimising bucking, the bucked assortments were larger and the incomes enhanced with this estimation method relative to the reference. This explains why the estimation of forest owner’s incomes in the energy wood thinning simulations led to suboptimal decisions and income losses.     

Swedish non-industrial private forest owners: a survey of self-employment and equipment investments

It has been estimated that Sweden’s non-industrial private forest (NIPF) owners undertake a total of 12 M hours of self-employed forest work per year. This paper reports an evaluation of self-employment in Swedish NIPF’s in terms of the people and equipment involved. NIPF owners’ self-employment was determined by a nationwide survey. Complete equipment sales statistics were compiled from interviews with manufacturers and importers. About 66% of NIPF owners are undertaking self-employed forestry work. Pre-commercial thinning was the activity undertaken most frequently by them, followed by planting, cutting and extraction. In comparison to other NIPF owners, self-employed NIPF owners tend to be younger, and are more likely to be male, single owners, resident on holdings, farmers and members of forest owner associations. Sales of new equipment suitable for self-employed individuals amounted to €67 M, or 83,000 items. Based on sales numbers and the profile of self-employed NIPF owners, no major changes in the amount and nature of self-employment are expected in the near future.     

An Internet-Supported Planning Approach for Joint Ownership Forest Holdings

This article proposes a planning approach for private forest holdings that have more than one decision maker, e.g. a heirship group or a joint ownership between siblings. Through a case study example, we illustrate the phases of the proposed planning process and describe the communication and planning tools used in this process. The final aim is that in the future the forest planners’ toolkit would include this kind of approach for rather common situations where it is not easy to reach all the owners for synchronous face-to-face planning sessions. The process started with initial telephone interviews with the forest owners. From these interviews appropriate alternative forest plans were developed. Indicators and their values from the forest plans were inputted into the Mesta internet application. The forest owners were also given guidance on how to use the program. After this they were given time to independently use the program. Once the forest owners finished the use of the program, the results were collected and analyzed. Among the alternative forest plans, one was approved by all of the forest owners. The results of trial use involving a North-Karelian forest holding were encouraging. The main benefits of the approach according to the participants were learning that there are alternatives between which to choose, and reaching a common base level of understanding holding’s production possibilities for future decisions. After developing the process and technical tools further, the proposed model could serve joint ownerships over distance also in practice and in larger scale, and, as a result, foster owners’ engagement on their own forest.     

Spatial structure of deciduous forest stands with contrasting human influence in northwest Spain

Five contrasting deciduous forest stands were studied to characterize the spatial structural variability in human-influenced forests. These stands are representative of cultural forest types widely represented in western Europe: one plantation, two coppices, one wood-pasture forest and one high forest stand. All stems with DBH > 5 cm were measured and mapped, and stem DBH distributions, spatial structure of DBH, spatial point patterns and spatial associations were analysed. Spatial autocorrelation for DBH was calculated with Moran’s I correlograms and semivariograms. Complete spatial randomness hypothesis for spatial point patterns, and both independence and random labelling hypotheses for spatial associations were analysed using Ripley’s K function. The results showed that tree sizes were conditioned by particular former management systems, which determined unimodal symmetric, positively skewed or compound DBH distributions. Spatial structure was more complex when human influence became reduced. Coppice stands showed clumped spatial patterns and independence among size classes, as a consequence of sexual and vegetative establishment of new stems in open areas. The largest clumping intensity was observed in the wood-pasture with an intermediate disturbance frequency and low inter-tree competition. The high forest stand displayed spatial traits consistent with the gap-dynamics paradigm, such as clumping of smaller trees, random arrangement of larger trees, negative association between juveniles and adults, and high structural heterogeneity. It can be expected that after cessation of human interference, coppices and wood-pastures would evolve to a more heterogeneous structure, probably with a higher habitat and species diversity.     

Comparison of beta,Johnson’s SB,Weibull and truncated Weibull functions for modeling the diameter distribution of forest stands in Catalonia (north-east of Spain)

The purpose of this study was to compare the beta, Johnson SB, Weibull and truncated Weibull functions in describing the diameter distributions of forest stands in Catalonia. The data consisted of permanent sample plots from the Spanish National Forest Inventory in Catalonia. The empirical data represent left-truncated distributions, as the smallest diameter measured in the field was 7.5 cm. A total of 1,242 plots were used to fit the functions and analyze their performance. The distribution functions were fitted to the diameter distributions of the number of stems (DD_N) and stand basal area (DD_G). The performance of the candidate functions was compared by means of their bias and RMSE for different diameter sums measuring the difference between the empirical and fitted distributions. The leftmost part (from 0 to 7.5 cm) of the non-truncated functions was ignored in this analysis. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to check whether the results depended on the number of trees measured in the stand, or the main species of the stand. The truncated Weibull function for the diameter distribution of stand basal area appeared to be in all cases the most accurate and consistent function. Generally, functions describing the distribution of stand basal area performed better than functions that described the distribution of the number of trees. Of the basal area distributions, beta and Johnson’s SB were the second best and nearly equally good with each other. The order of precision of the tested functions was: truncated Weibull for DD_G, truncated Weibull for DD_N, Johnson’s SB for DD_G, beta for DD_G, beta for DD_N and Weibull for DD_G, Weibull for DD_N, and Johnson’s SB for DD_N.     

The nameless counterpart: a reconstruction of the experiences of private forestry extension officers with their clients

The changes to the forest ownership structure of small private forests in recent times have opened up an intensive field of research throughout Europe. Most of the studies completed to date adhere to the classic survey model and describe the behaviour and attitudes of forest owners. The research presented in this article analyses the changes to small private forests with the aid of data collected from focus groups comprised of forestry extension officers in Germany. Through the reconstruction of the experiences gleaned by the consultants, it was possible to describe the manner in which they characterise their clientele, and the changes they have observed, against the backdrop of changes occurring across rural areas. The consultants’ strategies for describing forest owners are presented. The orientation pattern presented by the extension officers is compared with the urban orientation of forest owners’ model developed by social scientists.