July temperatures in europe from pollen data, 6000 years before present

Mean July temperatures across Europe 6000 years before present were reconstructed from palynological data by the transfer function method. Reconstructed summer temperatures were warmer than those at present over most of Europe with the greatest heating, more than 2 degrees C, in the midcontinent and the far north. This pattern is explained by high summer insolation and a weak zonal insolation gradient 6000 years before present and the effective heating of the landmass relative to ocean and coastal areas. A strong land-sea pressure gradient may in turn have increased westerly air flow into southern Europe, which is consistent with cooler reconstructed summer temperatures in the Mediterranean region, and reduced the environmental lapse rate in the central European mountains.     

The evolution of climate over the last millennium

Knowledge of past climate variability is crucial for understanding and modeling current and future climate trends. This article reviews present knowledge of changes in temperatures and two major circulation features-El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)-over much of the last 1000 years, mainly on the basis of high-resolution paleoclimate records. Average temperatures during the last three decades were likely the warmest of the last millennium, about 0.2 degrees C warmer than during warm periods in the 11th and 12th centuries. The 20th century experienced the strongest warming trend of the millennium (about 0.6 degrees C per century). Some recent changes in ENSO may have been unique since 1800, whereas the recent trend to more positive NAO values may have occurred several times since 1500. Uncertainties will only be reduced through more extensive spatial sampling of diverse proxy climatic records.     

Climate impact of late quaternary equatorial pacific sea surface temperature variations

Magnesium/calcium data from planktonic foraminifera in equatorial Pacific sediment cores demonstrate that tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were 2.8 degrees +/- 0.7 degrees C colder than the present at the last glacial maximum. Glacial-interglacial temperature differences as great as 5 degrees C are observed over the last 450 thousand years. Changes in SST coincide with changes in Antarctic air temperature and precede changes in continental ice volume by about 3 thousand years, suggesting that tropical cooling played a major role in driving ice-age climate. Comparison of SST estimates from eastern and western sites indicates that the equatorial Pacific zonal SST gradient was similar or somewhat larger during glacial episodes. Extraction of a salinity proxy from the magnesium/calcium and oxygen isotope data indicates that transport of water vapor into the western Pacific was enhanced during glacial episodes.     

Isotopic evidence for glaciation during the Cretaceous supergreenhouse

The Turonian (93.5 to 89.3 million years ago) was one of the warmest periods of the Phanerozoic eon, with tropical sea surface temperatures over 35 degrees C. High-amplitude sea-level changes and positive delta18O excursions in marine limestones suggest that glaciation events may have punctuated this episode of extreme warmth. New delta18O data from the tropical Atlantic show synchronous shifts approximately 91.2 million years ago for both the surface and deep ocean that are consistent with an approximately 200,000-year period of glaciation, with ice sheets of about half the size of the modern Antarctic ice cap. Even the prevailing supergreenhouse climate was not a barrier to the formation of large ice sheets, calling into question the common assumption that the poles were always ice-free during past periods of intense global warming.     

Pliocene paleoclimate and East antarctic ice-sheet history from surficial ash deposits

The preservation, age, and stratigraphic relation of an in situ ashfall layer with an underlying desert pavement in Arena Valley, southern Victoria Land, indicate that a cold-desert climate has persisted in Arena Valley during the past 4.3 million years. These data indicate that the present East Antarctic Ice Sheet has endured for this time and that average temperatures during the Pliocene in Arena Valley were no greater than 3 degrees C above present values. One implication is that the collapse of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet due to greenhouse warming is unlikely, even if global atmospheric temperatures rise to levels last experienced during mid-Pliocene times.     

The greenhouse effect in central north america: if not now, when?

Climate models with enhanced greenhouse gas concentrations have projected temperature increases of 2 degrees to 4 degrees C, winter precipitation increases of up to 15 percent, and summer precipitation decreases of 5 to 10 percent in the central United States by the year 2030. An analysis of the climate record over the past 95 years for this region was undertaken in order to evaluate these projections. Results indicate that temperature has increased and precipitation decreased both during winter and summer, and that the ratio of winter-to-summer precipitation has decreased. The signs of some trends are consistent with the projections whereas others are not, but none of the changes is statistically significant except for maximum and minimum temperatures, which were not among the parameters predicted by the models. Statistical models indicate that the greenhouse winter and summer precipitation signal could have been masked by natural climate variability, whereas the increase in the ratio of winter-to-summer precipitation and the higher rates of temperature change probably should have already been detected. If the models are correct it will likely take at least another 40 years before statistically significant precipitation changes are detected and another decade or two to detect the projected changes of temperature.     

Magnetic Anomalies over the Mid-Atlantic Ridge near 27{degrees}N

Ten magnetic profiles across the mid-Atlantic ridge near 27 degrees N show trends that are parallel to the ridge axis and symmetrical about the ridge axis. The configuration of magnetic bodies that could account for the pattern supports the Vine and Matthews hypothesis for the origin of magnetic anomalies over oceanic ridges. A polarity-reversal time scale inferred from models for sea-floor spreading in the Pacific-Antarctic ridge and radiometrically dated reversals of the geomagnetic field indicates a spreading rate of 1.25 centimeters per year during the last 6 million years and a rate of 1.65 centimeters per year between 6 and 10 million years ago. A similar analysis of more limited data over the mid-Atlantic ridge near 22 degrees N also indicates a change in the spreading rate. Here a rate of 1.4 centimeters per year appears to have been in effect during the last 5 million years; between 5 and 9 million years ago, an increased rate of 1.7 centimeters per year is indicated. The time of occurrence and relative magnitude of these changes in the spreading rate, about 5 to 6 million years ago and 18 to 27 percent, respectively, accords with the spreading rate change implied for the Juan de Fuca ridge in the northeast Pacific.     

Triops (Entomostraca) eggs killed only by boiling

Temporary rainpools near Khartoum, Sudan, are inhabited by the notostracan crustacean Triops which completes its life cycle within 4 weeks. The annual rains fall in late summer, and throughout the winter and early summer the eggs of Triops remain in the dried mud or dust where they may be exposed to temperatures up to 80 degrees C. Laboratory experiments show that they can withstand temperatures up to within 1 degrees C of boiling, but are killed in partial vacuum by 70 degrees C, at atmospheric pressure by 100 degrees C, or under pressure by 105 degrees C. Exposure to high temperature seems to be necessary to break the egg diapause.     

Coupled thermal and hydrological evolution of tropical Africa over the last deglaciation

We analyzed the distribution of branched tetraether membrane lipids derived from soil bacteria in a marine sediment record that was recovered close to the Congo River outflow, and the results enabled us to reconstruct large-scale continental temperature changes in tropical Africa that span the past 25,000 years. Tropical African temperatures gradually increased from approximately 21 degrees to 25 degrees C over the last deglaciation, which is a larger warming than estimated for the tropical Atlantic Ocean. A direct comparison with sea-surface temperature estimates from the same core revealed that the land-sea temperature difference was, through the thermal pressure gradient, an important control on central African precipitation patterns.     

Summer ice and carbon dioxide

The extent of Antarctic pack ice in the summer, as charted from satellite imagery, decreased by 2.5 million square kilometers between 1973 and 1980. The U.S. Navy and Russian atlases and whaling and research ship reports from the 1930's indicate that summer ice conditions earlier in this century were heavier than the current average. Surface air temperatures along the seasonally shifting belt of melting snow between 55 degrees and 80 degrees N during spring and summer were higher in 1974 to 1978 than in 1934 to 1938. The observed departures in the two hemispheres qualitatively agree with the predicted impact of an increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide. However, since it is not known to, what extent the changes in snow and ice cover and in temperature can be explained by the natural variability of the climate system or by other processes unrelated to carbon dioxide, a cause-and-effect relation cannot yet be established.     

Tropical temperature variations since 20,000 years ago: modulating interhemispheric climate change

Tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs), as thermodynamically recorded in Barbados corals, were 5 degrees C colder than present values 19,000 years ago. Variable tropical SSTs may explain the interhemispheric synchroneity of global climate change as recorded in ice cores, snowline reconstructions, and vegetation records. Radiative changes due to cloud type and cloud cover are plausible mechanisms for maintaining cooler tropical SSTs in the past.     

An ice-free cretaceous? Results from climate model simulations

We have quantitatively investigated the mechanisms that could explain the warm, equable climate that is believed to have been typical of the mid-Cretaceous (100 million years ago). By performing simulations with a climate model based on zonal energy balance, we demonstrate that past changes in geography were important in bringing about climatic change. However, the meridional distribution of Cretaceous temperatures cannot be successfully simulated unless additional physical "feedback mechanisms" are included in the model. These mechanisms may involve cloud and meridional heat transport changes. We also conclude that paleoclimatologists should reexamine carefully both existing data and their interpretations with regard to reconstruction of Cretaceous tropical and polar surface temperatures.     

The deep ocean during the last interglacial period

Oxygen isotope analysis of benthic foraminifera in deep sea cores from the Atlantic and Southern Oceans shows that during the last interglacial period, North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) was 0.4 degrees +/- 0.2 degrees C warmer than today, whereas Antarctic Bottom Water temperatures were unchanged. Model simulations show that this distribution of deep water temperatures can be explained as a response of the ocean to forcing by high-latitude insolation. The warming of NADW was transferred to the Circumpolar Deep Water, providing additional heat around Antarctica, which may have been responsible for partial melting of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet.     

Stability of the Astronomical Frequencies Over the Earth's History for Paleoclimate Studies

The expected changes over the past 500 million years in the principal astronomical frequencies influencing the Earth's climate may be strong enough to be detectable in the geological records, and such effects have been inferred in several cases. Calculations suggest that the shortening of the Earth-moon distance and of the length of the day back in time induced a shortening of the fundamental periods for the obliquity and climatic precession, from 54 to 35, 41 to 29, 23 to 19, and 19 to 16 thousand years over the last half-billion years. At the same time, the precessional constant increased from 50 to 61 arc seconds per year. The changes in the frequencies of the planetary system due to its chaotic motion are much smaller; their influence on the changes of the periods of climatic precession, obliquity, and eccentricity of the Earth's orbit around the sun can be neglected. Eccentricity periods used for Quaternary climate studies may therefore be considered to have been more or less constant for pre-Quaternary times.     

Nuclear winter: global consequences of multple nuclear explosions

The potential global atmospheric and climatic consequences of nuclear war are investigated using models previously developed to study the effects of volcanic eruptions. Although the results are necessarily imprecise due to wide range of possible scenaros and uncertainty in physical parameters, the most probable first-order effects are serious. Significant hemispherical attenuation of the solar radiation flux and subfreezing land temperatures may be caused by fine dust raised in high-yield nuclear surface bursts and by smoke from city and forest fires ignited by airbursts of all yields. For many simulated exchanges of several thousand megatons, in which dust and smoke are generated and encircle the earth within 1 to 2 weeks, average light levels can be reduced to a few percent of ambient and land temperatures can reach -15 degrees to -25 degrees C. The yield threshold for major optical and climatic consequences may be very low: only about 100 megatons detonated over major urban centers can create average hemispheric smoke optical depths greater than 2 for weeks and, even in summer, subfreezing land temperatures for months. In a 5000-megaton war, at northern mid-latitude sites remote from targets, radioactive fallout on time scales of days to weeks can lead to chronic mean doses of up to 50 rads from external whole-body gamma-ray exposure, with a likely equal or greater internal dose from biologically active radionuclides. Large horizontal and vertical temperature gradients caused by absorption of sunlight in smoke and dust clouds may greatly accelerate transport of particles and radioactivity from the Northern Hemisphere to the Southern Hemisphere. When combined with the prompt destruction from nuclear blast, fires, and fallout and the later enhancement of solar ultraviolet radiation due to ozone depletion, long-term exposure to cold, dark, and radioactivity could pose a serious threat to human survivors and to other species.     

Upwelling intensification as part of the Pliocene-Pleistocene climate transition

A deep-sea sediment core underlying the Benguela upwelling system off southwest Africa provides a continuous time series of sea surface temperature (SST) for the past 4.5 million years. Our results indicate that temperatures in the region have declined by about 10 degrees C since 3.2 million years ago. Records of paleoproductivity suggest that this cooling was associated with an increase in wind-driven upwelling tied to a shift from relatively stable global warmth during the mid-Pliocene to the high-amplitude glacial-interglacial cycles of the late Quaternary. These observations imply that Atlantic Ocean surface water circulation was radically different during the mid-Pliocene.     

Effects of climatic warming on lakes of the central boreal forest

Twenty years of climatic, hydrologic, and ecological records for the Experimental Lakes Area of northwestern Ontario show that air and lake temperatures have increased by 2 degrees C and the length of the ice-free season has increased by 3 weeks. Higher than normal evaporation and lower than average precipitation have decreased rates of water renewal in lakes. Concentrations of most chemicals have increased in both lakes and streams because of decreased water renewal and forest fires in the catchments. In Lake 239, populations and diversity of phytoplankton also increased, but primary production showed no consistent trend. Increased wind velocities, increased transparency, and increased exposure to wind of lakes in burned catchments caused thermoclines to deepen. As a result, summer habitats for cold stenothermic organisms like lake trout and opposum shrimp decreased. Our observations may provide a preview of the effects of increased greenhouse warming on boreal lakes.     

Central North Atlantic Plate Motions over the Last 40 Million Years

The relative motion vector for the North American and African plates has been determined from detailed charting of the trend of the Atlantis fracture zone for over 1000 kilometers in the central North Atlantic near 30 degrees N and from identification of marine magnetic anomalies and deep-sea drilling results. The vector (pole) is located at 52.5 degrees N, 34 degrees W and has a magnitude (opening rate) of 5.7 x 10(-7) degree per year. Major changes in either the pole location or the opening rate are not evident for the last 40 million years.     

Extending the sub-sea-floor biosphere

Sub-sea-floor sediments may contain two-thirds of Earth's total prokaryotic biomass. However, this has its basis in data extrapolation from ~500-meter to 4-kilometer depths, whereas the deepest documented prokaryotes are from only 842 meters. Here, we provide evidence for low concentrations of living prokaryotic cells in the deepest (1626 meters below the sea floor), oldest (111 million years old), and potentially hottest (~100 degrees C) marine sediments investigated. These Newfoundland margin sediments also have DNA sequences related to thermophilic and/or hyperthermophilic Archaea. These form two unique clusters within Pyrococcus and Thermococcus genera, suggesting unknown, uncultured groups are present in deep, hot, marine sediments (~54 degrees to 100 degrees C). Sequences of anaerobic methane-oxidizing Archaea were also present, suggesting a deep biosphere partly supported by methane. These findings demonstrate that the sub-sea-floor biosphere extends to at least 1600 meters below the sea floor and probably deeper, given an upper temperature limit for prokaryotic life of at least 113 degrees C and increasing thermogenic energy supply with depth.     

European seasonal and annual temperature variability, trends, and extremes since 1500

Multiproxy reconstructions of monthly and seasonal surface temperature fields for Europe back to 1500 show that the late 20th- and early 21st-century European climate is very likely (>95% confidence level) warmer than that of any time during the past 500 years. This agrees with findings for the entire Northern Hemisphere. European winter average temperatures during the period 1500 to 1900 were reduced by approximately 0.5 degrees C (0.25 degrees C for annual mean temperatures) compared to the 20th century. Summer temperatures did not experience systematic century-scale cooling relative to present conditions. The coldest European winter was 1708/1709; 2003 was by far the hottest summer.