气候变化对我国北方农牧交错带空间位移的影响

北方农牧交错带地理位置特殊,脆弱性、敏感性是其主要特点。气候变化背景下我国北方农牧交错带范围也发生了相应变化。文中参考已有的界限指标,结合北方农牧交错带及其周边地区(11个省、自治区及直辖市)208个站点1961-2010年的降水资料,确定新的界限指标划定北方农牧交错带的边界,并讨论其界限移动情况。经分析,北方农牧交错带大部分地区降水量呈减少趋势,气候变化对东部降水量影响较为明显,农牧交错带范围向东南方向移动,且南界移动幅度大于北界;北部西界向西移动约2个经度;同时我国北方农牧交错带范围增加约3.5×104Km2,这一变化趋势与实际土地利用模式下农牧交错带移动情况相反,因此当前农牧交错带地区的土地利用方式不利于该地区生态环境的可持续发展,使该地区生态环境问题更加严重。     

基于GIS的北方农牧交错带荒漠化遥感动态监测与成因分析——以内蒙古通辽市为例

运用MSS、TM、ETM、CBERS-2四期遥感数据,采用参数统计、空间强度等值线追踪和重心点迁移等分析方法,全方位、多时段动态监测我国北方农牧交错带代表区域—通辽市的荒漠化动态变化情况,并用地质、气候、土地利用数据分析论证了北方农牧交错带荒漠化消长的根本原因。研究发现:近32年(1975～2007年)来,通辽市沙漠化面积经历了增加-减少的过程,其重心位于开鲁县东来镇附近;通辽市的盐碱化面积呈现了减少-增加-减少态势,其重心位于科左中旗宝龙山镇附近。研究认为在自然条件(地质、气候等)大背景制约下,北方农牧交错带荒漠化在几十年时间尺度内演变的根本原因在于人类土地利用结构合理与否。     

中国北方农牧交错带土地沙漠化成因与防治技术

对中国北方农牧交错带土地沙漠化的现状、成因及防治技术等问题进行分析，批北方农牧交错带是中国沙漠化发展最快、生态环境最脆弱的地区之一，其根本原因在于樵采、过牧、滥垦等人为活动过度。提出农牧交错带防治沙漠化的三大技术体系，即沙地植被恢复与固沙技术体系，农牧业集约化技术体系和区域农业优势资源开发与沙产业技术体系。     

张家口市坝上地区相对资源承载力分析

采用相对资源承载力研究方法,分别以全国和北方农牧交错带典型地区半农牧旗县作为参照区,对张家口市坝上地区1986~2007年相对资源承载力进行了分析。结果显示:以全国为参照区,相对资源综合承载力始终处于超载状态;以北方农牧交错带典型地区半农牧旗县为参照区,相对资源综合承载力处于超载状态的年份占91%;相对资源综合承载力主要取决于相对自然资源承载力,而且相对自然资源承载力波动显著;相对经济资源承载力低。大力推行退耕还林草工程,优化土地利用结构,提高农业生产技术,增加农业投入,优化种植结构,挖掘具有地区优势特色的农牧产品,提高农牧产品附加值,大力发展旅游业,对张家口市坝上地区可持续发展具有重要意义。     

中国北方农牧交错带土地利用变化及预测分析

中国北方农牧交错带是我国重要的生态脆弱区和生态屏障,土地利用变化迅速。文中基于遥感数据探讨了20年来北方农牧交错带的土地利用变化;基于2008年的土地利用现状并运用CA-Markov模型,模拟了未来10年（2018）后的土地利用变化情况。结果表明：近20年随着耕地比例下降、林地比例升高,农牧交错带土地利用结构比例趋于合...     

呼和浩特400余年乡村聚落格局时空演变分析

以历史文献、地方志、历史地图为基础,利用核密度分析、莫兰指数等方法对呼和浩特地区1572-2020年的聚落演变过程进行了分析。结果发现：1)聚落数量变化呈波动增长过程。明末清初聚落散落分布,清中叶确定基础集聚格局,民国时期奠定现代聚落格局。2)聚落空间集聚自南部长城沿线半湿润区不断向大青山北部半干旱区移动,发展过程中由插花式布局向条带状扩展布局转变,在武川县北部和黄河沿岸形成高密度集聚。3)水热条件和地貌状况是聚落发展的基础条件,人口数量变化是聚落兴起的前提条件,历史政策和社会经济繁荣是驱动农牧交错区聚落发展的主要因素,聚落格局演变实质上反映农牧交错带北移和地区农业化发展的过程。以上内容对重新认识北方农牧交错带地区聚落的形成过程及原因具有一定参考意义。     

北方农牧交错带干旱灾害及其对暖干气候的响应

利用1961 ～2012年气象数据资料,采用线性回归、反距离加权空间插值(IDW)对北方农牧交错带气温、降水气候要素的时间演变特征进行了分析,并在此基础上运用Is指数和Modet小波变换等方法研究该区域的干旱状况.结果显示:近52年来,北方农牧交错带气温增温速率为0.32℃/10a,降水量减少速率为7.35mm/10a,气候暖干化趋势明显;气候暖干化导致该区干旱灾害的发生频率增加、强度加剧;干旱灾害主要存在7a和8a的年际变化周期,1989年以前气候偏湿润,1989年以后干旱严重;干旱灾害发生频率最高的是西北段部分,西北段和东北段偏旱与大旱严重,而华北段重旱严峻.     

渭干河-库车河三角洲绿洲近10年地下水位及水质时空变化特征

利用渭干河-库车河三角洲绿洲30个观测井近10a的统计资料,分析了该三角洲地下水位和水质的时空变化特征及其成因。结果显示:(1)地下水埋深的基本规律是西部灌区、渭干河古河带和冲积扇上部地下水位较深,东部灌区、农牧交错带和冲积扇下部地下水位较浅;研究区地下水海拔高程自南向北升高;地下水埋深受制于局部地形和土地利用方式,与区域地势关系不大。(2)近10 a来,研究区地下水位下降了1.00 m,西部灌区下降了1.34 m,农牧交错带下降了0.41 m;矿化度平均降低了0.54 g/L,农牧交错带降低了1.36 g/L,渭干河古河带矿化度升高了0.43 g/L。(3)研究区年内最高地下水位和最低水位平均相差0.84 m,冲积扇中部相差1.04 m,冲积扇上部相差0.73 m,2月出现最低水位,4月出现最高水位;地下水质年内最高和最低矿化度季节相差0.21 g/L,冲积扇下部0.51 g/L,中部为0.17 g/L。(4)人类农业生产活动和蒸发作用是地下水埋深及水质时空变化的主要原因;研究区骨干排水沟渠的开通运行,降低了相应地域的地下水位和矿化度。     

气候变化对我国北方农牧交错带及其气候生产力的影响

根据我国北方63个代表站点（1961－1995）的气候资料，在分析了该地区近40年来气候变化现状的基础上，选用了合适的指标和计算方法，研究未来气候变化情景下，我国农牧交错带界限及其气候生产力的变化。研究结果表明，在降水不变，温度升高的情况下，现有的农牧交错带将东南移，范围扩大；同时气候生产力可能下降。而在温度升高、同时降水增加的气候情景下，农牧交错带的移动变缓，甚至不变，视降水的情况而定。降水增加能部分或完全补偿因温度引起的气候生产力的下降，气候生产力甚至有可能增加。降水是决定农牧交错带位置及其气候生产力的关键因素，但未来干热的气候趋势有可能使该地区的环境状况变得更为严峻。     

未来气候变暖对褐飞虱越冬界限的影响分析

全球气候变暖将对农业病虫害的越冬界限产生影响,从而影响病虫害的发生动态。本文以GIS（地理信息系统）技术研究了未来高经济发展条件下能源种类平衡发展排放情景（A1B）下褐飞虱越冬界限及相应越冬区相对于baseline时段（1961-1990）的可能变化。结果表明：（1）越冬北界在2020s（2010-2039）北移约50 km,安全越冬北界北移约110 km;2050s（2040-2069）越冬北界北移约120 km,安全越冬北界北移约250 km。由于经纬度及海拔的影响,越冬界限北移存在一定区域差异。（2）越冬区明显扩大。相对于baseline时段,2020s褐飞虱间歇越冬区扩大约11.93万km2 （约23.24%）,安全越冬区增加约2.08万km2 或0.66倍;2050s间歇越冬区扩大约25.99万km2（约50.63%）,安全越冬区增加约18.82万km2或5.93倍。这些结果表明褐飞虱越冬界限对气候变暖响应明显,其中安全越冬北界较越冬北界北移幅度更大。气候变暖导致的安全越冬北界北移对未来褐飞虱的发生动态可能产生重要影响。     

Armillaria species in northern Britain

Five species of Armillaria, A. borealis, A. cepistipes, A. ostoyae. A. mellea and A. lutea , were identified among 145 isolates collected from sites in northern Britain. Most of the collection sites were in coniferous woodland containing dead or dying trees and A. ostoyae , a well-known pathogen of conifers, was the most frequently isolated species. Two species believed to be weakly pathogenic, A cepistipes and A. lutea , were also commonly found; the former has only rarely been recorded in Britain before. The significance of the records is discussed.     

Weeds in slash-and-burn rice fields in northern Laos

Slash-and-burn farmers in northern Laos consider weeds, insufficient rainfall and rodent damage as the most important constraints to upland rice ( Oryza sativa L.) production. Labour inputs of 140-190 days ha^-1 for weed control result in low labour productivity. Average weed cover observed in rice fields was 5.6, 4.1, 2.1, 1.7, 0.7 and 0.7 cm m^-1 (transect) for Chromolaena odorata (L.) King and Robinson, Ageratum conyzoides L., Commelina spp., Lygodium flexuosum (L.) Sw., Panicum trichoides Sw. and Corchorus spp, respectively. Chromoiaena odorata , which was introduced in the 1930s, has become the main fallow species and is considered a desirable fallow plant by most farmers. Average fallow periods reported for the 1950s, 1970s and 1992 were 38, 20 and 5 years respectively. Reduced fallow periods in the last decades have re-suited in a marked increase in weeding requirements. Above-ground biomass for rice stem, herbaceous plants and trees after rice harvest was 168, 67 and 60gm^-2 in 1991 and 115, 43 and 24 gm^-2 in 1992. Weeding at 14-day intervals did not increase rice grain yield.     

Cassava brown streak disease in northern Mozambique

Cassava brown streak disease (CBSD) of cassava ( Manihot esculenta ) caused by cassava brown streak virus (CBSV) has been known in Tanzania since the 1930s, but has not been recorded previously in Mozambique. A virus disease survey of cassava was undertaken, therefore, in 1999 in Zambezia and Nampula Provinces, which are the main areas of production in Mozambique. During the survey, CBSD was identified for the first time in these areas of Mozambique. Disease incidences in some fields in coastal areas reached 80-100% and many of the main cassava cultivars were affected. Cassava is the staple crop for most of the rural population in northern Mozambique where food security is threatened by these high incidences of CBSD.     

北方地区干旱变化趋势分析

以气象干旱给农业带来的危害为出发点，对我国东北、华北、西北区15个省（市、自治区）建国以来的历史受旱面积、成灾面积、受旱率、成灾率等进行了分析，结果表明，50－90年代，干旱对农业的危害程度呈增加趋势，东北区尤为明显，受旱率增大4．7倍，成灾率增大3．8倍。研究结果还表明，灌溉对减轻旱灾损失起着重要作用，旱灾发生频率、受旱率和成灾率都随灌溉率的增加而减小。     

Characterization of Citrus tristeza virus isolates in northern Iran

The biological and molecular properties of four Citrus tristeza virus (CTV) isolates isolated from infected Satsuma trees imported from Japan, and growing in citrus groves in northern Iran (Mahdasht orchards, Mazandaran Province), were investigated. CTV-infected samples were collected from sweet orange trees and grafted onto Alemow (Citrus macrophylla Wester) seedlings. On indicator plants, these isolates produced various symptoms including vein clearing and stem pitting on Mexican lime, Alemow, and Citrus hystrix, and yellowing and stunting on sour orange and grapefruit seedlings. Citrus samples were also surveyed for CTV using serological tests. The coat protein (CP) gene of these isolates was amplified using specific primers, yielding an amplicon of 672 bp for all isolates. Sequence analysis showed 98%–99% sequence homology of Iranian isolates with the Californian CTV severe stem-pitting isolate SY568 and 97%–98% homology with the Japanese seedling yellows isolate NUagA. The Iranian isolates were compared by restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) analysis of the CP amplicon for further classification.     

陕北黄土高原生态质量评价研究

根据陕北黄土高原特殊的生态背景,并咨询专家意见,选取具有代表性的、可以综合反映该区域自然条件、人类活动干扰影响的指标来构建评价体系,并通过层次分析法计算各指标权重。通过对研究区生态质量背景、生态脆弱度、人类干扰度和人类适宜度的计算分类,最终算出研究区各县的生态质量综合评价值,并归为不同评价等级。以期为黄土高原区的可持续发展提供有益参考。     

Viruses in the northern potato-producing regions of Saudi Arabia

Agar double diffusion tests and, later, ELISAs were used to detect viruses associated with potato in 242 samples collected in 16 trips to Tabuk and Hail, northern regions of Saudi Arabia, in four consecutive growing seasons (autumn 1989, spring and autumn 1990 and spring 1991). Eleven different viruses were detected in Tabuk and 12 in Hail. The viruses detected in Tabuk were alfalfa mosaic (AMV), cucumber mosaic (CMV), tobacco mosaic (TMV), potato leaf roll (PLRV), tomato spotted wilt (TSWV), tobacco ringspot (TRSV) and potato A, M, S, X and Y. The same viruses, plus potato yellow dwarf (PYDV), were detected in Hail. AMV was most frequently and CMV least frequently detected in Tabuk, whereas in Hail the most and least common were PVA and PLRV respectively.     

天山北麓绿洲自然适宜性研究

从自然角度出发,以行政区为单位,勾绘出天山北麓11个绿洲,考虑水土资源、气候、自然灾害四个方面对绿洲发育的正负影响,提取11项指标,经标准化处理后从优到差加权计算,计算出绿洲之间的总体相对适宜值,总体上表现为:玛纳斯和昌吉的相对适宜值较高,奇台和精河的值较低,并结合各绿洲的地域特点进行横向比较:绿洲规模主要受水资源总量的控制,其质量的差异更多的受到地貌、气候和自然灾害的影响。     

Biological control in protected strawberry in northern Italy1

Biological control is currently being used in 100 ha of tunnel-grown strawberry in northern Italy. Second-instar larvae of Chrysoperla carnea are released (18 larvae per m²) against aphids when more than 30% of leaflets are infested. Releases of Phytoseiulus persimilis (4–6 predatory mites per m²) are also being used in IPM strategies against Tetranychus urticae; wild P. persimilis populations also occur in the test area, which is near the Adriatic coast. Releases of predators are also successful in the field.     

Sensitivity to cymoxanil in populations of Plasmopara viticola in northern Italy

In 1993, control failures were reported on grapevine in northern Italy under severe downy mildew pressure after postinfection application of cymoxanil in mixtures with copper or mancozeb. A monitoring survey was started immediately in Piedmont (north-western Italy) in order to determine the sensitivity of populations of Plasmopara viticola to cymoxanil from those vineyards where the fungicide was not controlling the disease satisfactorily. In 1994 and 1995, monitoring surveys were extended to north-eastern Italy, where cymoxanil mixtures were not performing as well as in the past. Sampled populations were tested on detached leaf discs and on whole potted plants under controlled conditions. In 1993, 12 populations, sampled in Piedmont, showed MIC values (minimum inhibitory concentration) varying from 10 to more than 100 mg L⁻¹ cymoxanil. With a baseline reference population having a MIC value of 3 mg L⁻¹, resistance factors ranged from 3 to more than 30. In 1994, 17 populations out of 27 sampled in Trentino (north-eastern Italy) showed MIC values of 100 mg L⁻¹ or higher and in 1995, 32 populations out of 38 showed the same behaviour. In similar experiments, the MIC values of populations from nontreated plots were between 3 and 10 mg L⁻¹. In whole potted plant tests, populations with MIC values higher than 200 mg L⁻¹ in a leaf disc test were not controlled by 500 mg L⁻¹ of cymoxanil. The results of our study suggest that resistance to cymoxanil in P. viticola may contribute to a lack of disease control in Italian vineyards.