气候变暖背景下黄淮海平原北部冬小麦生育期霜冻灾害发生规律

为探明气候变暖背景下黄淮海平原北部冬小麦生育期霜冻灾害发生规律,采用线性倾向估计、Mann-Kendall法和R/S分析法,分析1960-2017年的黄淮海平原北部12个气象站点0 cm地面最低温度数据.结果表明:1)年均气温表现出一致的上升趋势,北部升温速率高于南部.2)研究区初霜冻推迟,终霜冻提前,无霜期延长,初霜...     

气候变化对乌鲁木齐市冬小麦产量的影响

【目的】探讨乌鲁木齐市冬小麦不同生长发育阶段气温、降水量和日照时数等气候条件对冬小麦产量形成的影响,进而对近35a冬小麦生长季气候变化及其对冬小麦产量形成的利弊进行分析,以期为制订适应和应对气候变化、采取趋利避害的冬小麦生产管理和技术措施提供理论依据。【方法】利用1977-2011年新疆乌鲁木齐国家基本气象站逐日气温、降水量和日照时数资料以及乌鲁木齐市冬小麦产量资料,在对近35a冬小麦生长季平均气温、降水量、日照时数变化趋势和变化特征分析的基础上,使用积分回归和相关分析方法,对冬小麦不同生长发育时段气候条件对产量形成的影响程度进行分析,进而就近35a气候变化对冬小麦产量影响的利弊进行探讨。【结果】在全球变暖背景下,1977-2011年,乌鲁木齐市冬小麦生长季平均气温以0.606℃/10a的倾向率呈极显著上升趋势,降水量和日照时数分别以4.010mm/10a和29.289h/10a的倾向率呈不显著的增多趋势,但生长季内不同时段各气候要素的变化及其对冬小麦产量的影响差异较大。【结论】近35a乌鲁木齐市气候变化对冬小麦生产既有有利的方面,也有不利的影响,但总体来看弊大于利。气候变暖,尤其是春、夏季气温升高对小麦产量产生了较明显的不利影响,降水量略增对提高冬小麦产量有一定积极意义,而日照时数的变化对冬小麦产量无显著影响。     

气候变化背景下我国农业模型模拟研究进展

概述了我国在未来气候变化下主要粮食作物(水稻,小麦,玉米)的模型模拟研究的概况,主要包括粮食产量和敏感性、脆弱性研究。作物模型与气候模式相结合的模型模拟研究是目前的主流方法。虽然我国的模型模拟研究取得了一定的进步,但当前研究所用的作物模型大多是国外的模型,国内的模型模拟水平还有待提高。针对目前研究中存在的问题,认为在气候模式本身、温室气体排放情景、应用技术的不确定性、作物生长模拟模型和农业气候变化的脆弱性等方面应进行重点研究,为准确评价气候变化对我国农业生产的可持续发展提供理论依据。     

Water consumption in summer maize and winter wheat cropping system based on SEBAL model in Huang-Huai-Hai Plain,China

Crop consumptive water use is recognized as a key element to understand regional water management performance. This study documents an attempt to apply a regional evapotranspiration model(SEBAL) and crop information for assessment of regional crop(summer maize and winter wheat) actual evapotranspiration(ET a) in Huang-Huai-Hai(3H) Plain, China. The average seasonal ET a of summer maize and winter wheat were 354.8 and 521.5 mm respectively in 3H Plain. A high-ET a belt of summer maize occurs in piedmont plain, while a low ET a area was found in the hill-irrigable land and dry land area. For winter wheat, a high-ET a area was located in the middle part of 3H Plain, including low plain-hydropenia irrigable land and dry land, hill-irrigable land and dry land, and basin-irrigable land and dry land. Spatial analysis demonstrated a linear relationship between crop ET a, normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI), and the land surface temperature(LST). A stronger relationship between ET a and NDVI was found in the metaphase and last phase than other crop growing phase, as indicated by higher correlation coefficient values. Additionally, higher correlation coefficients were detected between ET a and LST than that between ET a and NDVI, and this significant relationship ran through the entire crop growing season. ET a in the summer maize growing season showed a significant relationship with longitude, while ET a in the winter wheat growing season showed a significant relationship with latitude. The results of this study will serve as baseline information for water resources management of 3H Plain.     

气候变化对沧州地区冬小麦产量潜力的影响

本研究利用DSSAT V4.5模型模拟近50年来沧州地区冬小麦光温生产潜力、气候生产潜力及其在实际水肥条件下可获得产量的变化情况,分析沧州地区近50年的气候变化特征及气候变化对冬小麦产量潜力的影响,旨在为分析气候变化对黄淮海平原冬小麦生产系统的影响提供方法和思路。结果表明:1)近50年来沧州地区冬小麦生育期内平均温度呈极显著上升趋势,平均日照时数和太阳辐射呈减少趋势,平均降雨量呈不显著减少趋势,但降雨分布发生了季节性转移。2)冬小麦的光温生产潜力近50年呈减少趋势,平均每年减少17.94kg/hm2;气候生产潜力和可获得产量均呈增长趋势,平均每年分别增长31.02和3.62kg/hm2;实际产量呈极显著增长趋势,平均每年增长100.85kg/hm2。3)光温生产潜力和气候生产潜力之间的产量差呈不显著减少趋势,气候生产潜力和可获得产量之间的产量差呈不显著增长趋势,可获得产量和实际产量之间的产量差呈极显著减少趋势。4)气候因素的变化对冬小麦的生长和产量产生了明显影响,其中温度增加对冬小麦生长影响较为复杂,不同时期温度变化对冬小麦生长影响不同,总体呈负面影响;平均日照时数和太阳辐射的减少是冬小麦产量潜力降低的主要原因;平均降雨量的变化对冬小麦生长有利,气候变化的综合影响使冬小麦的生育期极显著缩短,开花期和成熟期极显著提前。因此,气候变化对沧州地区冬小麦的生产和产量潜力影响具有一定的复杂性,可以通过优化水肥管理措施来抵消气候变化产生的负效应。     

Effects of subsoiling depth,period interval and combined tillage practice on soil properties and yield in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain,China

Compaction layers are widely distributed in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, China, which restrict root growth and reduce yields. The adoption of subsoiling has been recommended to disrupt compacted soil layers and create a reasonable soil structure for crop development. In this paper, the effects of subsoiling depth(30, 35 and 40 cm), period interval(2 or 3 years) and combined pre-sowing tillage practice(rotary cultivation or ploughing) on soil condition improvement was studied on a tidal soil in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain. Seven tillage patterns were designed by combining different subsoiling depths, period intervals and pre-sowing. The evaluation indicators for soil condition improvement were as follows: thickness of the plough layer and hard pan, soil bulk density, cone index, soil three-phase R values, alkali nitrogen content, crop yield, and economic benefits. The results showed that subsoiling can significantly improve the soil structure and physical properties. In all subsoiling treatments, the depth of 35 or 40 cm at a 2-year interval was the most significant. The thickness of the plough layer increased from 13.67 cm before the test to 21.54–23.45 cm in 2018. The thickness of the hard pan decreased from 17.68 cm before the test to 12.09–12.76 cm in 2018, a decrease of about 40.07%. However, the subsoiling combined presowing tillage practice, that is, rotary cultivation or ploughing, was not significant for soil structure and physical properties. For all subsoiling treatments, the soil bulk density, cone index and soil three-phase R values of the 15–25 cm soil layer were significantly lower compared to single rotary cultivation. Subsoiling was observed to increase the soil alkaline nitrogen and water contents. The tillage patterns that had subsoiling at the depth of 35–40 cm at a 2-year interval combined with rotary cultivation had the highest alkali nitrogen and water contents, which increased by 31.08–34.23% compared with that of the single rotary cultivation. Subsoiling can significantly increase the yield both of wheat and corn, as well as the economic benefits. The treatment of subsoiling at the depth of 35 cm at an interval of 2 years combined with rotary cultivation had the highest annual yield and economic benefits. For this treatment, the annual yield and economic benefits increased by 14.55 and 62.87% in 2018, respectively. In conclusion, the tillage patterns that involved subsoiling at a depth of 35 cm at a 2-year interval along with rotary cultivation are suitable for the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain.     

CO2倍增时气候及其变率变化对黄淮海平原冬小麦生产的影响

对CO2有效倍增条件下黄淮海平原气候变率的可能变化提出了3种假设,然后利用哥达德空间研究所研制的大气环流模型(GISSGCM)的有关网格点值,结合研究区域6个样点近40年(1961～2000)的逐日气候资料以及DSSAT(农业技术转化决策支持系统)中的WGEN(天气发生器),生成了黄淮海平原(2×CO2)条件下兼顾气候及其变率变化的3种情景。在上述3种情景下分别运行CERES Wheat(作物 环境资源综合系统 小麦模型),并与当前气候(BASELINE)条件下的模拟值进行比较,评价了(2×CO2)条件下气候及其变率变化对冬小麦生产的影响,同时考虑了大气CO2浓度的直接影响。结果表明,在(2×CO2)条件下,灌溉小麦的模拟产量在所有样点都增加了,但随着气候变率的增大,增产幅度减小,产量变异系数增大,稳产性变差;雨育小麦的模拟结果与灌溉小麦相似,但稳产性明显低于灌溉小麦。     

Impacts of climate change on drought risk of winter wheat in the North China Plain

Drought is a major natural disaster causing crop yield losses, while its occurrence mechanism and spatiotemporal variations in a changing climate are still not clear. Based on a long-term climatic dataset(during 1958–2015) from weather stations in the North China Plain(NCP), the influencing mechanism of various climatic factors on drought risk of winter wheat was quantified by using sensitivity analysis, Mann-Kendall trend test and slope estimation. The results indicated that climatic factors have changed considerably over the past six decades in the growth season of winter wheat. As a result, winter wheat suffered from severe droughts(with 350 mm of water deficit during its growth season), particularly at the jointing–heading and heading–mature stages, which were critical to crop yield formation. There were large spatial and temporal variations in drought risk and climatic change factors at different growth stages of winter wheat. Despite precipitation playing a vital role in determining the spatiotemporal patterns of drought risk, high temperature and low humidity along with other climatic factors at key growth stages of winter wheat aggravated drought risk. Particularly, temperature at nearly 90% weather stations showed a notablely upward trend, which exacerbated water deficit and drought risk of winter wheat. Given the complexity and high uncertainty of climate change, these findings provide important information for adapting crop production to future climate change and accompanied droughts while ensuring food security and agricultural sustainability.     

Impact of climate change on maize yield in China from 1979 to 2016

Climate change severely impacts agricultural production, which jeopardizes food security. China is the second largest maize producer in the world and also the largest consumer of maize. Analyzing the impact of climate change on maize yields can provide effective guidance to national and international economics and politics. Panel models are unable to determine the group-wise heteroscedasticity, cross-sectional correlation and autocorrelation of datasets, therefore we adopted the feasible generalized least square(FGLS) model to evaluate the impact of climate change on maize yields in China from 1979–2016 and got the following results:(1) During the 1979–2016 period, increases in temperature negatively impacted the maize yield of China. For every 1°C increase in temperature, the maize yield was reduced by 5.19 kg 667 m–2(1.7%). Precipitation increased only marginally during this time, and therefore its impact on the maize yield was negligible. For every 1 mm increase in precipitation, the maize yield increased by an insignificant amount of 0.043 kg 667 m–2(0.014%).(2) The impacts of climate change on maize yield differ spatially, with more significant impacts experienced in southern China. In this region, a 1°C increase in temperature resulted in a 7.49 kg 667 m–2 decrease in the maize yield, while the impact of temperature on the maize yield in northern China was insignificant. For every 1 mm increase in precipitation, the maize yield increased by 0.013 kg 667 m–2 in southern China and 0.066 kg 667 m–2 in northern China.(3) The resilience of the maize crop to climate change is strong. The marginal effect of temperature in both southern and northern China during the 1990–2016 period was smaller than that for the 1979–2016 period.     

基于通径分析的黄淮海平原粮食产量驱动因素研究

采用通径分析方法,对影响黄淮海平原粮食产量的14个驱动因素进行统计分析,利用SPSS软件建立各因素线性回归模型,得出农业用电量、粮食作物播种面积、受灾面积、年平均气温、年底耕地面积5个因素对粮食产量的影响作用较大,进而提出要从提高农业机械化水平、稳定粮食面积、做好自然灾害预防工作、增加有效灌溉面积等多方面入手提高黄淮海平原的粮食产量。     

Potential global distribution of the guava root-knot nematode Meloidogyne enterolobii under different climate change scenarios using MaxEnt ecological niche modeling

In recent years, Meloidogyne enterolobii has emerged as a major parasitic nematode infesting many plants in tropical or subtropical areas. However, the regions of potential distribution and the main contributing environmental variables for this nematode are unclear. Under the current climate scenario, we predicted the potential geographic distributions of M. enterolobii worldwide and in China using a Maximum Entropy(MaxEnt) model with the occurrence data of this species. Furthermore, the potenti...     

未来气候变化对东北三省水稻产量影响的评估

基于国际水稻所开发的ORYZA2000水稻模型和未来A2和B2排放情景下逐日气象资料(2011—2050年),系统分析了未来40年东北地区气候变化对水稻产量的影响。结果显示:在灌溉满足的情况下,其2种排放情景下对水稻生产都是正效应,单产和总产都呈增加趋势。能够种植的区域也在增加,有北移的趋势,B2情景下比A2情景下更有利于水稻产量的提高。在A2和B2排放情景下,东北区域相对基准段二氧化碳浓度升高及降水总体增加,个别年代减少、温度升高和太阳辐射增加。有利的方面是当地可以根据温度升高的幅度,适当的种植生育期较长的品种,从而增加产量;不利的方面是气温升高加速土壤有机质分解,土壤肥力下降,病虫害发生频率增加。应采取测土配方施肥措施,加强病虫害监测防治工作,保证水稻生长需要。     

气候变化对黄淮海地区夏玉米-冬小麦种植模式和产量的影响

【目的】全球气候正以变暖为主要特征发生显著变化,探究气候变化对黄淮海地区夏玉米-冬小麦种植制度的影响,为制定合理的应对措施提供理论依据。【方法】通过气象站点观测值的加权平均和一元线性回归分析黄淮海各省市地区1992—2013年来的气候变化特征。利用农业气象站点多年长期观察的夏玉米-冬小麦物候数据,通过加权求平均,分析气候变暖背景下夏玉米-冬小麦的生育期和茬口推移情况。采用一元线性回归分析1992—2013年来黄淮海地区夏玉米-冬小麦周年产量变化。同时利用非线性回归分析法和面板数据敏感性分析法分析气候变化对黄淮海地区夏玉米-冬小麦周年产量的影响。【结果】1992—2013年来,黄淮海地区温度整体呈现波动上升趋势,降水总量变化趋势不明显,但区域差异显著。在气候变化的背景下,黄淮海地区夏玉米-冬小麦种植模式发生明显改变:冬小麦播种时间推迟,生育期存在缩短趋势,不同地区缩短2—5 d不等;夏玉米播种时间南部推迟而北部提前,收获时间总体呈现推迟趋势,整个黄淮海地区生育时长未发生明显变化。茬口时间因夏玉米-冬小麦生育期的推移呈现不同程度延长,造成了气候和土地资源的浪费。1992—2013年间黄淮海地区夏玉米-冬小麦单产呈显著上升趋势,多数省份达到显著水平。非线性敏感性分析表明,最低温度、最高温度和平均温度对夏玉米-冬小麦产量的影响基本表现为同时增产或同时减产的一致性。冬小麦产量受最低温度的影响最为显著,东南部的江苏省和山东省减产明显,而北部河北省和西部河南省表现为增产。温度升高除对河南省夏玉米有增产作用外,其他省份夏玉米产量均出现不同程度的降低,这可能与温度升高的幅度不同和降水的区域性差异有关。降水量对夏玉米-冬小麦产量影响存在地区差异。总体上气候变暖对周年单产影响表现为北部增产,而南部减产,因而选择适宜早播且生育期长的夏玉米品种对保障周年产量具有重要意义。【结论】气候变暖背景下,黄淮海地区冬小麦播种时间推迟,生育期缩短,夏玉米生育期北部延长而南部缩短,生育期的推移导致茬口时间延长,造成了气候资源和土地资源的浪费。1992—2013年间夏玉米-冬小麦周年产量显著提高。温度升高和降水增加对产量的影响存在区域差异,整个区域平均来看升温使夏玉米减产,冬小麦增产;降水增加有利于黄淮海北部地区夏玉米的产量形成,对南部地区夏玉米产量则存在不利影响,而对黄淮海大部分地区冬小麦的产量形成不利。     

气候变化下的农户适应性行为及其对粮食单产的影响

为探究农户适应性行为及其对农业产出的影响效应,基于河北、河南省等地粮食种植户的调查数据,采取处理效应模型,实证分析农户气候变化适应性行为对粮食单产的影响.研究表明:1)面对气候变化及其影响,近80％的农户会采取应对措施,而且农户倾向于采用成本较低的措施.2)农户是否采取适应性措施的行为决策受到内、外部因素的影响,气温、...     

气候变化对东北三省大豆生育期和产量的影响模拟

【目的】研究未来气候情景下大豆生育期和产量的变化,为保障大豆生产安全、充分合理利用热量资源,以及应对气候变化对东北三省大豆生产的影响提供科学依据。【方法】基于区域气候模式和WOFOST作物生长模型,模拟了A2(强调经济发展)和B2(强调可持续发展)情景下2021-2050年大豆熟型的可能分布及生育期、产量的变化趋势。【结果】①以B2情景为例,不同熟型大豆品种种植北界不同程度北移东扩,极早熟、早熟、中早熟、中熟、中晚熟和晚熟品种适宜种植区北移,极早熟、早熟、中早熟、中熟、中晚熟及晚熟品种适宜种植范围缩小,极晚熟品种适宜种植范围扩大。②在A2情景下,东北三省大豆出苗期平均提前2.2d,开花期平均提前3.0d;在B2情景下,大豆出苗期平均提前3.0d,开花期平均提前4.2d。③在A2情景下,2021-2030年辽宁省大部及吉林省大部地区大豆减产,辽宁东部及吉林省东南部小部分地区减产10%以上,2031-2050年东北三省大部地区大豆减产10%以上。④在B2情景下,2021-2050年东北三省大部地区大豆减产,2031-2050年东北三省大部地区大豆减产10%以上。【结论】在A2和B2情景下,未来30年间大豆出苗-开花阶段缩短,生育进程加快,生育期缩短有可能发生;大豆减产面积不断增加,减产幅度逐渐增大。     

气候变化对江西省双季稻生产的影响

利用1961—2011年江西省81个常规气象观测站资料,双季稻产量资料和全球气候模式ECHAM5/MPIOM在SRES A1B排放情景下2015—2100年逐日气温和降水资料,定量研究了气候变化对江西省双季稻生产的影响,结果表明:1)双季稻生长期光、温和水基本能满足水稻生长的需求,21世纪以来,生育期≥10℃积温以正距平为主,晚稻生长期日照时数自20世纪90年代以来呈明显下降趋势;2)分析极端气候事件对水稻生产的影响发现,随着气候变暖,高温逼熟的次数呈明显上升状态,寒露风出现的几率越来越小;3)建立了气候产量预测模式,并利用气候模式的预测结果模拟2015—2100年的气候产量,发现2060年以前,早稻气候产量基本以正值为主,2060年后气候产量呈正负波动状态,晚稻气候产量整体变化幅度较早稻气候产量小。     

Temperature and Precipitation Suitability Evaluation for the Winter Wheat and Summer Maize Cropping System in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain of China

The Huang-Huai-Hai Plain is the most important winter wheat and maize production region in China. In response to the increasing population pressure, the Chinese authorities strongly invested in improving the irrigation systems and increasing ground and surface water exploitation within the plain to increase the crop productivity. This resulted in a reduction of water resource availability and in turn indirectly affected the suitability of various agricultural ecosystems in the plain. The main purpose of this study was to review the suitability of temperature and precipitation for the winter wheat and summer maize cropping system in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, in order to provide a preliminary irrigation scheme. This analysis provides a first attempt to enhance the water resource management as well as to increase the water use efficiency. For this aim, a GIS-based multicriteria analysis procedure has been developed consisting of (1) definition of objectives (evaluated entities) and database building; (2) definition of evaluation criteria; (3) standardization of the criteria; (4) combination of the criteria; (5) classification of the objectives; and (6) integration of the objectives. The land suitability classification maps were transformed into maps of required irrigation amounts for each growing stage of the winter wheat and summer maize cropping system. The study also exemplified the limitations and proposed future research activities that will improve the detail and accuracy of the evaluation results.     

A simulation of winter wheat crop responses to irrigation management using CERES-Wheat model in the North China Plain

To improve efficiency in the use of water resources in water-limited environments such as the North China Plain(NCP), where winter wheat is a major and groundwater-consuming crop, the application of water-saving irrigation strategies must be considered as a method for the sustainable development of water resources. The initial objective of this study was to evaluate and validate the ability of the CERES-Wheat model simulation to predict the winter wheat grain yield, biomass yield and water use efficiency(WUE) responses to different irrigation management methods in the NCP. The results from evaluation and validation analyses were compared to observed data from 8 field experiments, and the results indicated that the model can accurately predict these parameters. The modified CERES-Wheat model was then used to simulate the development and growth of winter wheat under different irrigation treatments ranging from rainfed to four irrigation applications(full irrigation) using historical weather data from crop seasons over 33 years(1981–2014). The data were classified into three types according to seasonal precipitation: 100 mm, 100–140 mm, and 140 mm. Our results showed that the grain and biomass yield, harvest index(HI) and WUE responses to irrigation management were influenced by precipitation among years, whereby yield increased with higher precipitation. Scenario simulation analysis also showed that two irrigation applications of 75 mm each at the jointing stage and anthesis stage(T3) resulted in the highest grain yield and WUE among the irrigation treatments. Meanwhile, productivity in this treatment remained stable through different precipitation levels among years. One irrigation at the jointing stage(T1) improved grain yield compared to the rainfed treatment and resulted in yield values near those of T3, especially when precipitation was higher. These results indicate that T3 is the most suitable irrigation strategy under variable precipitation regimes for stable yield of winter wheat with maximum water savings in the NCP. The application of one irrigation at the jointing stage may also serve as an alternative irrigation strategy for further reducing irrigation for sustainable water resources management in this area.     

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近年来,在全球变暖的大背景下,西北也经历着同样的变暖趋势,尤其是在西北干旱区新疆、甘肃河西走廊等地的棉花种植区,气候变暖对小麦生长发育的影响研究日益增多,但如何正确、合理的评价小麦对气候变暖的响应,已成为目前十分突出的科学和实际问题。在评价的过程中,评价指标的选择和确定是重中之重。鉴于此,本文筛选了几类重要的评价指标,主要有小麦生长发育、种植结构、地理分布、农业气象灾害、农业病虫害气象指标等,这些指标的选择为科学评价小麦对气候变化的响应奠定了一定的基础。     

西北干旱半干旱区小麦对气候变化响应的评价指标体系*

近年来,在全球变暖的大背景下,西北也经历着同样的变暖趋势,尤其是在西北干旱区新疆、甘肃河西走廊等地的棉花种植区,气候变暖对小麦生长发育的影响研究日益增多,但如何正确、合理的评价小麦对气候变暖的响应,已成为目前十分突出的科学和实际问题。在评价的过程中,评价指标的选择和确定是重中之重。鉴于此,本文筛选了几类重要的评价指标,主要有小麦生长发育、种植结构、 地理分布、农业气象灾害、农业病虫害气象指标等,这些指标的选择为科学评价小麦对气候变化的响应奠定了一定的基础。