The impacts of climate change on potential natural vegetation distribution

Change in potential natural vegetation (PNV) distribution associated with climate change due to the doubling atmospheric carbon dioxide (2×CO₂) was estimated with a global natural vegetation mapping system based on the modified Kira scheme to the globe and the continents. With an input of widely-distributed global climate data, the system interpolates data onto a 1° latitude by 1° longitude grid over the globe, generates estimates of vegetation type, and produces a composite PNV map. The input climate data corresponding to the 1×CO₂ and 2×CO₂ consists of observations prior to AD 1958 at 2,001 weather stations worldwide and the 2×CO₂ simulation output from the Japan Meteorological Research Institue's General Circulation Model, respectively. As a result of the simulated global warming, the vegetation zones expanded mostly from the tropics toward the poles. PNV area changed by 6.98 billion (G) ha of the total land area (15.04 Gha) and potential forest area corresponding to the closed forest and open forest (woodland) reached 9.74 Gha with the increase of 1.29 Gha. The potential forest area in Europe had obvious advantages to the climate change accompanied with the increase of actual forest area. Although the actual forest area has decreased in North America and Asia, the potential forest area in these continents also benefitted from the climate change. In the end, the remaining continents tended to bear the brunt of the climate change.     

Provenance variation in growth characters of four subtropical pine species planted in Mexico

In 1995 a species/provenance test was established in the state of Puebla, Mexico to assess and compare the growth of Pinus greggii var. australis, P. maximinoi, P. patula and P. tecunumanii, including 10, 5, 11 and 4 provenances of each species, respectively. Each provenance test lot consisted of seed from 7 to 10 individual trees collected in natural stands. Range-wide samples were included in the test for P. greggii var. australis and P. patula. Material of P. maximinoi and P. tecunumanii from Guatemala, Honduras and Nicaragua, as well as Mexico was established in the test. The test site is in a mountainous area at 1440m elevation, near 20°N latitude. At 5 years of age significant differences were seen at both the species and provenance levels in survival, total height, diameter and volume. The overall test survival was 93%. Variance among species was three time greater than among provenances, comprising 25–33% of the total variation. P. maximinoi had the greatest height, diameter and volume (62dm³) followed by P. tecunumanii (53dm³). P. greggii var. australis had an average volume of 43dm³ and P. patula produced 30dm³. Although P. maximinoi had the lowest survival rate, the San Jeronimo provenance was the most productive of all 30 provenances tested; 98% survival and 73dm³ volume. This was equivalent to 2.8cm annual diameter increment and 2m in height growth per year. Significant growth differences among provenances within species indicate that potential gain exists using provenance selection.     

Predicting climate change impacts on native and invasive tree species using radial growth and twenty-first century climate scenarios

The climatic conditions predicted for the twenty-first century may aggravate the extent and impacts of plant invasions, by favouring those invaders more adapted to altered conditions or by hampering the native flora. We aim to predict the fate of native and invasive tree species in the oak forests of Northwest Spain, where the exotic invaders Acacia dealbata and Eucalyptus globulus co-occur with the natives Quercus robur and Quercus pyrenaica and the naturalized Pinus pinaster. We selected adult, dominant trees of each species, collected increment cores, measured the ring width and estimated the basal area increment (BAI, cm² year^?1). Climate/growth models were built by using linear mixed-effect models, where the previous-year BAI and seasonal temperature and precipitation were the fixed factors and the individual the random factor. These models were run to project the fate of studied species in the A2 and B2 CO₂ emission scenarios until 2100. The models explained over 50 % of BAI variance in all species but E. globulus, where growth probably occurs whenever a minimum environmental requirement is met. Warm autumns favoured BAI of both natives, probably due to an extension of leaf lifespan, but hampered A. dealbata and P. pinaster BAI, maybe because of water imbalance and/or the depletion of carbon reserves. The projections yielded a positive BAI trend for both Quercus along the twenty-first century, but negative for the invader A. dealbata and clearly declining for the naturalized P. pinaster. Our results disagree with previous literature pointing at climate change as a driver of invasive species’ success and call for further studies regarding the effect of climate change on co-occurring natives and invaders.     

Expansion potential of invasive tree plants in ecoregions under climate change scenarios: an assessment of 54 species at a global scale

Climate change may increase expansion risk of invasive tree plants (ITPs) worldwide. Ecoregions are the power conservation tool for the management of ITPs. However, few studies have investigated the relationship between ITP expansion and ecoregions at the global scale under climate change scenarios. Here, we provided a method to evaluate the expansion potential of 54 representative ITPs in ecoregions specifically under influences of the changing climate at the global scale. We found that climate change due to increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration plays a positive role on the expansion of ITPs. We determined two of the most important ecoregion hotspots of ITP expansion potential, such as New Zealand and South Africa. In addition, ITPs were likely to have a large potential to expand in ecoregions of five different biomes, like temperate broadleaf and mixed forests. The potential expansion of ITPs would increase obviously in ecoregions of Boreal Forests/Taiga and Tundra. More importantly, the ecoregions of high elevation belonging to Tropical and Subtropical Coniferous Forests were expected to experience the higher expansion risk in the low GHG concentration scenario. Given our estimates of ITP expansion for ecoregions, management for the prevention and control for ITPs is urgent at the global scale.     

Analysis of potential impacts of climate change on forests of the United States Pacific Northwest

As global climate changes over the next century, forest productivity is expected to change as well. Using PRISM climate and productivity data measured on a grid of 3356 plots, we developed a simultaneous autoregressive (SAR) model to estimate the impacts of climate change on potential productivity of Pacific Northwest (PNW) forests of the United States. Productivity, measured by projected potential mean annual increment (PMAI) at culmination, is explained by the interaction of annual temperature, precipitation, and precipitation in excess of evapotranspiration through the growing season. By utilizing information regarding spatial error in the SAR model, the resulting spatial bias is reduced thereby improving the accuracy of the resulting maps. The model, coupled with climate change output from four generalized circulation models, was used to predict the productivity impacts of four different scenarios derived from the fourth IPCC special report on emissions, representing different future economic and environmental states of the world, viz., scenario A1B, A2, B1 (low growth, high economic development and low energy usage), and COMMIT. In these scenarios, regional average temperature is expected to increase from 0.5 to 4.5 °C, while precipitation shows no clear trend over time. For the west and east side of the Cascade Mountains, respectively, PMAI increases: 7% and 20% under A1B scenario; 8% and 23% under scenario A2; 5% and 15% under scenario B1, and 2% and 5% under the COMMIT scenario. These projections should be viewed as potential changes in productivity, since they do not reflect the mitigating effects of any shifts in management or public policy. For managers and policy makers, the results suggest the relative magnitude of effects and the potential variability of impacts across a range of climate scenarios.     

Overyielding in mixed pine forests with belowground complementarity: impacts on understory

European Journal of Forest Research - The impact of biodiversity loss on the functioning of forest ecosystems has become a central issue in ecology. Most reports of the positive effects of tree...     

Monitoring the impacts of mountain pine beetle mitigation

Since 1999, the mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopk. [Coleoptera: Scolytidae]) has impacted over 13 million hectares of pine forests in western Canada. Successful mitigation of the beetle depends on the accurate and timely identification of currently infested trees and on sustained control activities over several successive years. We monitored the success of mitigation activities in reducing damage caused by mountain pine beetle at two sites (A and B) on the leading edge of the current beetle epidemic in western Canada. Using three years of digital high spatial resolution aerial imagery (2006–2008) and one season of field measurements (2008), we estimated retrospective ratios of trees attacked by beetle in the current year (green attack) to trees attacked in the previous year (red attack), hereafter referred to as G:R. Our results indicate that mitigation activities slowed the rate of population growth, with G:R found to be decreasing or stable over sites A and B while mitigation was ongoing in 2005 and 2006 (site A 1.06:1; site B 0.32:1). When mitigation was discontinued over site A in 2007, the G:R increased markedly (1.94:1), while continued mitigation at site B in 2007 further reduced the G:R (0.22:1). Despite the cost associated with mitigation, its efficacy is rarely assessed and even more rarely documented. The approach presented herein enables a sample-based appraisal of mitigation efforts.     

Population management: potential impacts of advances in genomics

Even with advanced gene technologies continued population improvement remains a key foundation for future genetic gain in forest trees. Currently, this is served by maintaining genetic diversity while capturing genetic improvement, often through structuring populations into a genetic hierarchy, setting population sizes, and managing pedigrees and inbreeding. In the future, information from genomic technologies will complement classical approaches, such as common-garden field experiments, for characterizing the genetic base and measuring and monitoring genetic diversity. This will entail directly measuring DNA sequence diversity of both selectively neutral markers and functional genes. Calibrating neutral marker diversity against functional diversity will become easier with functional genomics. For maintaining pedigree and managing inbreeding, genomic information can be used to relax some traditional tenets of population management. With future knowledge of functional polymorphisms, the better understanding of the nature and origins of genetic variation should enhance management of populations to both conserve genetic diversity and exploit it by more efficient selection. Where fungal diseases threaten biotic crises, very large populations may be needed, the requisite sizes often being very uncertain. Gene discovery holds enormous promise, but depends heavily on comparative genomics, capitalizing on genomic information from Arabidopsis, Populus and Eucalyptus, and the increasing numbers of accessible ESTs. Much greater insights into non-codon mutational processes and rates should also guide population management. A key challenge, however, will be to utilize information and apply tools cost-effectively. Also, very detailed genomic information, exemplified by the poplar-genome sequencing, may allow earlier adaptation of technology and development of new information in angiosperms than in gymnosperms.     

Predicting climate change impacts on potential worldwide distribution of fall armyworm based on CMIP6 projections

Journal of Pest Science - The fall armyworm (FAW), Spodoptera frugiperda (J.E. Smith), is a highly destructive insect pest of several crop plants and threatening global food security. The current...     

The effect of weed control and fertilization on survival and growth of four pine species in the Virginia Piedmont

The growth response of loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.), shortleaf pine (Pinus echinata Mill.), Virginia pine (Pinus virginiana Mill.), and white pine (Pinus strobus L.) to weed control and fertilization in the Piedmont of Virginia was assessed. Four different silvicultural treatments were evaluated: (1) check (no treatment); (2) weed control; (3) fertilization; (4) weed control plus fertilization. The weed control treatment included a series of herbicide and mechanical treatments to eliminate competing hardwoods. The fertilizer treatments added N, P, K, and S. Survival and growth was measured annually through age 5. There were significant differences in survival and growth among species. Survival was greatest for loblolly pine, lower in shortleaf and Virginia pine, and lowest in white pine. Fertilization without controlling the competing hardwoods decreased survival in all planted pines due to the increased hardwood competition. Loblolly pine was tallest through the 5-year period, shortleaf and Virginia pine were shorter and white pine was shortest. Silvicultural treatments had no impact on tree height but significantly affected DBH. Weed control increased DBH while fertilization did not. When applied in combination with weed control, there was no additional increase in growth of the pines due to fertilization beyond that from weed control only. Fertilization stimulated the growth of the competing hardwoods which were significantly taller in the fertilized plots.     

Preliminary evaluation of potential fodder quality in a range of Leucaena species

Twenty-two taxa and five interspecific hybrids of Leucaena, grown together on a site in Houduras, were evaluated in terms of their potential value as tropical fodder crops. Content of crude protein, organic matter, acid detergent fibre, neutral detergent fibre, total tannin and condensed tannin (proanthocyanidin), as well as in vitro digestibility, were estimated in dried leaf samples, and the accessions ranked according to each of these criteria. The relative palatability of thirteen of the taxa and two of the hybrids was also assessed in a 'cafeteria' trial using fresh leaf material fed to sheep over an 18 day period. Protein, digestibility and palatability estimates, together with previously published yield data, were used to construct three indices of fodder potential, to allow direct comparisons between taxa. The most promising taxa according to these criteria included L. shannonii subsp. shannonii, L. collinsii subsp. zacapana and L. multicapitula, all of which achieved higher scores than the much better-known L. leucocephala subsp. glabrata in the index derived from crude protein and digestibility. When yield and palatability were included in the indices, the very high palatability of L. leucocephala gave it the highest score overall. The most unpromising taxa included L. pulverulenta, L. trichandra, L. esculenta (subsp. esculenta and subsp. matudae), and L. greggii. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Estimating potential habitat for 134 eastern US tree species under six climate scenarios

We modeled and mapped, using the predictive data mining tool Random Forests, 134 tree species from the eastern United States for potential response to several scenarios of climate change. Each species was modeled individually to show current and potential future habitats according to two emission scenarios (high emissions on current trajectory and reasonable conservation of energy implemented) and three climate models: the Parallel Climate Model, the Hadley CM3 model, and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory model. Since we model potential suitable habitats of species, our results should not be interpreted as actual changes in ranges of the species. We also evaluated both emission scenarios under an “average” future climate from all three models. Climate change could have large impacts on suitable habitat for tree species in the eastern United States, especially under a high emissions trajectory. Of the 134 species, approximately 66 species would gain and 54 species would lose at least 10% of their suitable habitat under climate change. A lower emission pathway would result in lower numbers of both losers and gainers. When the mean centers, i.e. center of gravity, of current and potential future habitat are evaluated, most of the species habitat moves generally northeast, up to 800 km in the hottest scenario and highest emissions trajectory. The models suggest a retreat of the spruce-fir zone and an advance of the southern oaks and pines. In any case, our results show that species will have a lot less pressure to move their suitable habitats if we follow the path of lower emissions of greenhouse gases. The information contained in this paper, and much more, is detailed on our website: http://www.nrs.fs.fed.us/atlas.     

Stomatal behavior of four woody species in relation to leaf-specific hydraulic conductance and threshold water potential

Midday stomatal closure is mediated by the availability of water in the soil, leaf and atmosphere, but the response to these environmental and internal variables is highly species specific. We tested the hypothesis that species differences in stomatal response to humidity and soil water availability can be explained by two parameters: leaf-specific hydraulic conductance (K(L)) and a threshold leaf water potential (Psi(threshold)). We used a combination of original and published data to estimate characteristic values of K(L) and Psi(threshold) for four common tree species that have distinctly different stomatal behaviors: black cottonwood (Populus trichocarpa Torr. & Gray.), Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco), red alder (Alnus rubra Bong.) and western hemlock (Tsuga heterophylla (Raf.) Sarg.). We used the values to parameterize a simple, nonelastic model that predicts stomatal conductance by linking hydraulic flux to transpirational flux and maintaining Psi(leaf) above Psi(threshold). The model successfully predicted fundamental features of stomatal behavior that have been reported in the literature for these species. We conclude that much of the variation among the species in stomatal response to soil and atmospheric water deficits can be explained by K(L) and Psi(threshold). The relationship between Psi(threshold) and xylem vulnerability to cavitation differed among these species.     

Growth and yield of nine pine species in Angola

A species introduction experiment including several tropical pines and eucalypts was established in 1966/1967 in the Tchianga research station in Angolan Highlands. Despite 27 years of political conflict (1975-2002) and lack of management, the research experiment has remained relatively well conserved. We measured the best conserved plots that were 41 years old in 2007 to obtain information on the growth of different pine species. We calculated stand characteristics including basal area, dominant height, mean diameter, and stand volume for Pinus patula Schiede ex Schiltdl. Et Cham., Pinus pseudostrobus Lindl., Pinus kesiya Royle ex Gordon, Pinus devoniana Lindl., Pinus chiapensis (Martinez) Andresen, Pinus elliottii Engelm., Pinus greggii Engelm. Ex Parl., Pinus montezumae Lamb. and Pinus oocarpa Schiede ex Schltdl. The growing stock volume at 41 years was the highest in P. pseudostrobus, 1,325 m3·ha-1, followed by P. kesiya with 1,200 m3·ha-1. The widely planted P. patula had a growing stock volume of 892 m3·ha-1. P. oocarpa and P. pseudostrobus had the highest stand basal area, over 80 m2·ha-1. Using increment core analyses we studied the temporal development of stand characteristics. Analysis of the mean annual increment (MAI) showed that rotation lengths of 20-30 years would maximize wood production. With these rotation lengths, the MAI of P. pseudostrobus would be 35 m3·ha-1. Other productive species were P. kesiya, P. oocarpa and P. chiapensis. P. patula had a maximum MAI of 20 m3·ha-1. P. greggii had the lowest mean annual volume production, only about 13 m3·ha-1.     

Effects of climate and site characteristics on Scots pine growth

Scots pine is a highly diverse species, extended across Europe from Scandinavia to Spain, Italy, Greece and Turkey. It is also a valuable species, used in many commercial monoculture plantations in Great Britain and particularly in Scotland. Because of the diversity of growing environments and its commercial importance, it is necessary to identify the combination of significant factors affecting the observed variability of growth. Temperature, mainly during the growing season, is quite commonly considered as the most important factor in knowledge-based or empirical models. However, in highly oceanic climates like that of Scotland, the impact of temperature may have a less significant impact on growth. Here we argue that other factors, such as incoming winter solar radiation, frost, drought and management also have a significant effect on the growth of Scots pine. In addition, we argue that the already developed Ecological Site Classification knowledge-based model, used as a forest management tool in Great Britain, should be updated to incorporate our findings. Furthermore, we discuss the need to include management impact and possibly more physiological based components in its growth modelling routines, as these would allow the introduction of the effect of winter solar radiation.     

松属树种体胚发生研究进展

体胚发生是松属树种最具潜力的无性繁殖方法。该文总结了松属树种体细胞胚胎发生的国内外研究进展,重点分析了体胚发生技术各个环节的影响因素,最后对松属树种体胚技术存在的问题进行了总结。     

Potential impacts of a climate change on forest ecosystems

Review of literature indicates that many uncertainties and assumptions exist in predicting the impacts of a climate change on forest ecosystems. However, current knowledge is sufficient to encourage any measures that are combating climate change, that is to reduce first and foremost the release of harmful substances to the atmosphere, lithosphere and biosphere.