Environmental characteristics of spawning and nursery grounds of Japanese sardine and mackerels in the Kuroshio and Kuroshio Extension area

The sustainable use of marine resources requires understanding the surrounding ecosystem and elucidating mechanisms of variation. However, we still lack a comprehensive understanding of environmental variation in the spawning and nursery grounds of important fisheries species Japanese sardine (Sardinops melanostictus) and mackerels (Scomber japonicus and Scomber australasicus) in the northwest Pacific. Here, we investigate detailed physical, chemical, and biological environment variations in the spawning and nursery grounds along the Kuroshio and Kuroshio Extension area from intensive investigation in spawning season (April) of 2013. We found similar water mass property and copepod community in the egg‐rich Kuroshio area and the larvae‐rich downstream Kuroshio Extension area, indicating environmental variability is small during transportation and development processes. The egg‐rich northern Izu Islands region showed high copepod abundance, although low nutrient and chlorophyll concentrations were observed. Eggs were scarce or absent in the second survey 10 days after abundant eggs were observed in the region, along with differences in water property and copepod community. This indicates that not only the location but also the specific water characteristic and copepod community are a determining factor for spawning. Indicator communities of copepod found in our study (indicator community of transportation process from spawning ground, of non‐spawning ground, and of reproductive area in the Kuroshio Extension area) would be a key factor for recruitment prediction.     

Importance of the Shatsky Rise Area in the Kuroshio Extension as an offshore nursery ground for Japanese anchovy (Engraulis japonicus) and sardine (Sardinops melanostictus)

Recent findings suggest that recruitment of Japanese anchovy (Engraulis japonicus) and sardine (Sardinops melanostictus) depends on survival during not only the first feeding larval stage in the Japanese coastal waters and the Kuroshio front but also during the post‐larval and juvenile stages in the Kuroshio Extension. Spatial distributions of juvenile anchovy and sardine around the Shatsky Rise area in the Kuroshio Extension region and the Kuroshio–Oyashio transition region are described, based on a field survey in the late spring using a newly developed mid‐water trawl for sampling juveniles. All stages of anchovy from post‐larvae to juveniles were obtained in the northern Shatsky Rise area. The Kuroshio Extension bifurcates west of the Shatsky Rise area and eddies are generated, leading to higher chlorophyll concentrations than in the surrounding regions in April and May. When Japanese anchovy and sardine spawn near the Kuroshio front or the coastal waters south‐east of Japan, their larvae are transported by the Kuroshio Extension and are retained in the Shatsky Rise area, which forms an important offshore nursery ground, especially during periods of high stock abundance.     

Transport and environmental temperature variability of eggs and larvae of the Japanese anchovy (Engraulis japonicus) and Japanese sardine (Sardinops melanostictus) in the western North Pacific estimated via numerical particle-tracking experiments

Numerical particle-tracking experiments were performed to investigate the transport and variability in environmental temperature experienced by eggs and larvae of Pacific stocks of the Japanese anchovy ( Engraulis japonicus ) and Japanese sardine ( Sardinops melanostictus ) using high-resolution outputs of the Ocean General Circulation Model for the Earth Simulator (OFES) and the observed distributions of eggs collected from 1978 to 2004. The modeled anchovy individuals tend to be trapped in coastal waters or transported to the Kuroshio–Oyashio transition region. In contrast, a large proportion of the sardines are transported to the Kuroshio Extension. The egg density-weighted mean environmental temperature until day 30 of the experiment was 20–24°C for the anchovy and 17–20°C for the sardine, which can be explained by spawning areas and seasons, and interannual oceanic variability. Regression analyses revealed that the contribution of environmental temperature to the logarithm of recruitment per spawning (expected to have a negative relationship with the mean mortality coefficient) was significant for both the anchovy and sardine, especially until day 30, which can be regarded as the initial stages of their life cycles. The relationship was quadratic for the anchovy, with an optimal temperature of 21–22°C, and linear for the sardine, with a negative coefficient. Differences in habitat areas and temperature responses between the sardine and anchovy are suggested to be important factors in controlling the dramatic out-of-phase fluctuations of these species.     

Japanese sardine (Sardinops melanostictus) mortality in relation to the winter mixed layer depth in the Kuroshio Extension region

A drastic population change in Japanese sardine (Sardinops melanostictus) has been noted as being related to winter sea surface temperature (SST) in the Kuroshio Extension region. The former studies suggest two possible explanations. One is that temperature itself affects sardine. The other is that SST represents the environmental change of the Kuroshio Extension region and other causes directly affecting sardine. In this study, we found that sardine mortality from post‐larva to age 1 negatively correlated with the winter mixed layer depth (MLD) in the Kuroshio Extension region from 1979 to 1993. During the period of a deep winter mixed layer (during the early 1980s), sardine mortality was low, whereas mortality was high when the winter mixed layer was shallow (during the late 1980s to early 1990s). By using a lower trophic‐level ecosystem model forced by the observed time series of MLD, SST, light intensity and nutrient data, we found that the estimated spring zooplankton density drastically varies from year to year and has a significant negative correlation with sardine mortality. The inter‐annual variation of spring zooplankton density is caused by the winter MLD variation. During the deep winter mixed layer years, a phytoplankton bloom occurs in spring, whereas during the shallow winter mixed layer years, the bloom occurs in winter. The results of our study suggest that the decline in the Japanese sardine population during the late 1980s to early 1990s was due to an insufficient spring food supply in the Kuroshio Extension region where sardine larvae and juvenile are transported.     

A spatial model of population dynamics of the early life stages of Japanese sardine, Sardinops melanostictus, off the Pacific coast of Japan

We constructed a numerical model reproducing the transport, survival and individual growth of the early life stages of Japanese sardine, Sardinops melanostictus, off the Pacific coast of Japan during 1978–93. The causes of early life stage mortality, including the influence of the effects of the spatial relationship between the spawning grounds and the Kuroshio on the mortality rate, were investigated. Survival and transport from egg stage to 60 days after spawning were modelled daily in a 1 × 1 degree mesh cell and individual growth in the period was modelled in each region (Kuroshio, Inshore, Offshore and Transition regions). Individual growth and survival from 60 to 180 days after spawning were modelled daily in the Transition region. Environmental data were taken from outside the model system. Our simulation indicates that survival variability in the larval stage (5–25 mm in standard length) is the key factor in determining the year‐class strength. The simulation revealed that strong year classes occurred with good survival in the spawning ground and whilst entrained in the Kuroshio current being transported to the main feeding grounds in the Transition region. The simulation also indicated that survival rates in 1988–93 were low in the Inshore, Kuroshio and Offshore regions, which depressed the year‐class strength during that period.     

Alternating dominance of postlarval sardine and anchovy caught by coastal fishery in relation to the Kuroshio meander in the Enshu-nada Sea

In the mid 1970s, the fishery catch of postlarval Japanese anchovy (Engraulis japonica) in a shelf region of the Enshu‐nada Sea, off the central Pacific coast of Japan, started to decline corresponding to a rapid increase of postlarval sardine (Sardinops melanostictus). In late 1980s, sardine started to decline, and it was replaced by anchovy in the 1990s. This alternating dominance of postlarval sardine and anchovy corresponded to the alternation in egg abundance of these two species in the spawning habitat of this sea. It was also noteworthy that during the period of sardine decline, sardine spawning occurred in April–May, a delay of two months compared with spawning in the late 1970s. The implication of oceanographic changes in the spawning habitat for the alternating dominance of sardine and anchovy eggs was explored using time‐series data obtained in 1975–1998, focusing on the effect of the Kuroshio meander. Large meanders of the Kuroshio may have enhanced the onshore intrusion of the warm water into the shelf region and contributed to an increase in temperature in the spawning habitat. This might favour sardine, because its egg abundance in the shelf region was more dependent on the temperature in early spring than was that of anchovy. In addition, enhanced onshore intrusion could contribute to transport of sardine larvae from upstream spawning grounds of the Kuroshio region. On the other hand, anchovy egg abundance was more closely related to lower transparency at the shelf edge, which may indicate the prevalence and prolonged residence of the coastal water, and therefore higher food availability, frequently accompanying non‐meandering Kuroshio. The expansion/shrinkage of the spawning habitat of sardine and anchovy in the shelf region, apparently responding to the change in the Kuroshio, possibly makes the alternation in dominance of postlarval sardine and anchovy most prominent in the Enshu‐nada Sea, in combination with changes in the abundance of spawning adults, which occurred almost simultaneously in the overall Kuroshio region. The implication of this rather regional feature for the alternating dominance of sardine and anchovy populations on a larger spatial scale is also discussed.     

Empirical biomass model for the Japanese sardine, Sardinops melanostictus, with sea surface temperature in the Kuroshio Extension

An Empirical Biomass Model for the Japanese sardine, Sardinops melanostictus, was developed on the basis of the relationship between February sea surface temperature (SST) in the Kuroshio Extension (30–35°N, 145–180°E) and the mortality coefficient during the period from egg to age 1, observed in 1979–94, to examine the long‐term variation of biomass. The periods of the good and bad catch, the year of the biomass peak, and the speed of the biomass decline in the period from 1957 to 1994 were successfully reproduced, except for the biomass increase in the early 1970s. When the model also included with a density‐dependent effect, the whole history of the observed catch during 1957–94 was almost perfectly reproduced. These results suggest that the environment in the Kuroshio Extension region, represented by winter–spring SST, is regarded as a leading factor for determining fluctuations of the sardine biomass in the long term, and that the density effect has a secondary contribution.     

Transport and survival of Japanese sardine (Sardinops melanostictus) eggs and larvae via particle‐tracking experiments

Particle‐tracking experiments were performed to infer the distribution of larvae of the Japanese sardine (Sardinops melanostictus) and to detect effects of transport environment on sardine recruitment, using the output of a high‐resolution ocean general circulation model and observed data of sardine spawning grounds during 1978–2004. By the 60th day following spawning, approximately 50% of the larvae had been transported to the Kuroshio Extension (KE). Whereas the spawning period and grounds changed markedly in relation to the stock level, the proportion of larvae transported to the KE remained relatively constant and no significant correlations were found between sardine recruitment and the transport proportion. Instead, the recruitment was found to be correlated with physical parameters including the mixed layer depth and the sea surface temperature along several major transport trajectories of sardine larvae. The correlations were most significant for the trajectories in the region 0.5° south to 1° north of the Kuroshio axis (defined as the location of velocity maxima at each longitude) and for larvae spawned in February and March during the high stock period (1978–94), and for larvae spawned in March and April during the low stock period (1995–2004).     

Modeling the transport and survival of Japanese sardine larvae in and around the Kuroshio Current

We have numerically modeled the advection and diffusion of sardine eggs and larvae to investigate the larval transport processes of Japanese sardine from the spawning grounds by the Kuroshio.
The results indicated that the offshore drift current induced by the winter monsoon and the location of the spawning ground have significant effects on the survival of the Japanese sardine. The contribution of the drift current, the distance of the spawning ground from the Kuroshio axis, and the eddy diffusivity to the larval retention in the coastal area is approximately expressed by the following equation: where R is the retention rate in the coastal area, a the variance of initial distribution of eggs, T the time after the eggs were spawned, – V₀ the velocity of the wind-induced offshore current, y₀ the distance of the center of the spawning area from the Kuroshio axis, and K the coefficient of horizontal eddy diffusivity.
The year-to-year variation in larval survival rates stimulated by the two-dimensional model are consistent with those estimated previously by using field data of egg and larval abundance during 1978–1988.     

A modeling approach to evaluate growth and movement for recruitment success of Japanese sardine (Sardinops melanostictus) in the western Pacific

A two‐dimensional individual‐based fish movement model coupled with fish bioenergetics was developed to simulate the observed migration and growth of Japanese sardine (Sardinops melanostictus) in the western North Pacific. In the model, derived from the observed ocean–environmental data as the driving force, fish movement was adapted as a kinesis behavior. The model successfully simulated the observed transport patterns during the egg and larval stages and the northward migrations during the juvenile stage in 2005, 2006 and 2007. The model results showed that both temperature during the larval stage in the Kuroshio Extension and the prey availability during the early juvenile stage in the Kuroshio–Oyashio transitional area are important factors for growth of Japanese sardine. In autumn, the observed juvenile sardine were mainly distributed in the subarctic water region off the Kuril Islands, which is an area (158–165°E, 43–47°N) with a high chlorophyll‐a (Chl‐a) concentration. The model reproduced the fish distribution, which has a high density in this region. The high Chl‐a concentration area in autumn may contribute to increasing the survival rate of Japanese sardine by cascading up the food chain, from the high primary production, and is an important habitat for recruitment success of Japanese sardine.     

Differences in food availability for Japanese sardine larvae between the frontal region and the waters on the offshore side of Kuroshio

The availability of food for larvae of the Japanese sardine, Sardinops melanostictus , was investigated in the Kuroshio frontal region and the waters on the offshore side of the Kuroshio, the Pacific coast of central Japan, in March 1990 and 1991, respectively. Food availability was assessed by changes in biomass and production of nauplii and small copepods, and RNA/DNA ratios of the larvae during about 2.5 days (the frontal region) or 3 days (the offshore waters) of tracking a drifter released in a pitch of the larvae. The biomas of the nauplii tended to increase with time in the frontal region and to decrease in the waters on the offshore side of the Kuroshio during the drifter tracking periods. The production of small copepods including nauplii in the waters on the offshore de of the kuroshio was 14% of that in the frontal region. The sum of the mean food requirements of the carnivorous macrozooplankters and sardine larvae was 11% of the production of small copepods including nauplii in the frontal region, compared with 136% in the waters offshore of the Kuroshio. The RNA/DNA ratios of postlarvae smaller than 8 mm in the frontal reqion were significantly higher than those in the waters on the offshore side of the Kuroshio ( P < 0.001) It is considered that the food availability for sardine larvae was relatively high in the frontal region and low in the waters on the offshore side of the Kuroshio. The food availability for the larvae probably deteriorated with the offshore shift of the main spawning ground from the frontal region to the waters on the offshore side of the Kuroshio in the latter half of the 1980s.     

Changes in the distribution of sardine eggs and larvae off Portugal, 1985–2000

Generalized additive models (GAMs) were fitted to sardine (Sardina pilchardus) egg distribution data from three daily egg production method surveys. The results showed that the area of egg cover off Portugal decreased significantly from 11 800 km² in 1988 to 7000 km² in 1997 and 7400 km² in 1999. This is because of a significant reduction in sardine egg presence off northern Portugal, GAM estimated areas being similar or higher in the late 1990s for southwestern and southern Portugal. The distributional area covered by larvae was not estimated for 1988 (larval distribution extended beyond the survey area), although it was probably higher than the 9600 km² for 1997 and 5500 km² for 1999. In 1997 and 1999, the Gulf of Cadiz was also sampled, indicating extensive areas with sardine eggs and larvae (more than 50% of the total area of distribution off Portugal). Standardized data from 15 ichthyoplankton surveys between 1985 and 2000 show a decline in the mean probability of egg presence within the Portuguese continental shelf from the mid‐1980s to the late‐1990s, because of a marked reduction in egg presence off northern Portugal. Sardine larval data from the same surveys suggest that the reduction in mean probability of presence in the north is less marked than for eggs (although this comparison ignores the presence of sardine larvae beyond the continental shelf in the 1980s). Similar changes off northern Portugal and western Galicia are observed in commercial sardine catches and the acoustically estimated area of fish distribution. It is possible that the observed decline in spawning area off northwestern Iberia during the 1990s is indirectly reflecting the prevalence of environmental conditions detrimental to sardine recruitment (northerly winds during winter that favour coastal upwelling and offshore transport), which have reduced the spawning contribution of young fish in that area.     

Transport and survival of larvae of pelagic fishes in Kuroshio system region estimated with Lagrangian drifters

ABSTRACT:   Transport and survival of larvae of pelagic fishes in the Kuroshio system region were studied using Lagrangian drifter data recorded from 1990 to 2003. A large portion of the drifters from the Kuroshio area south of Japan spread around the Kuroshio Extension up to 170°E, while some moved south to the offshore area of the Kuroshio because of a recirculation gyre. The monthly mean eastward movement from areas south of Japan was approximately 800–900 km, which was smaller than previous numerical estimates. The results of a survival model assuming optimal temperatures for larvae suggest that surface waters during the observation period were too warm for larval Japanese sardine, which has an optimal temperature of 16°C, and the adult abundances did not increase during the observation period. In contrast, the spawning ground temperatures and transport conditions from an area south-west of Japan in April–June matched the requirement for the larval Japanese anchovy, which has an optimal temperature of 22°C. The combined effects of temperature variations due to seasonality and water mass mixing are suggested to play an important role in determining the environmental temperatures that occur in an area.     

Proposal for stock-recruitment relationship for Japanese sardine <Emphasis Type="Italic">Sardinops melanostictus</Emphasis> in North-Western Pacific

ABSTRACT:   This study assessed the stock-recruitment relationship (SRR) for the Japanese sardine Sardinops melanostictus in the North-western Pacific. Of the 20 SRR models investigated, the Akaike information criterion (AIC) was the minimum (AIC = 551.2) when the data were separated into two groups (A and B) and the log-normal distribution was applied as the error term. Group A was constructed with SRR data from 1976–1987 and 1992–2004. Group B consisted of data from 1988–1991. The AIC minimum model was R  = 22.8 S  ×  e ^ε for Group A, where R , S , and ε denote the recruitment of sardine (individual number of 0-year old fish), spawning stock biomass (SSB), and error term, respectively. This model indicated that recruitment was proportional to the SSB and that no density-dependent effect operated over the range of SSB investigated (51 000–11.3 million t). Recruitment was markedly higher (lower) when the sea surface temperature (SST) of the Kuroshio Extension area in February was low (high). The essential SRR can simply be expressed as R  = 22.8 S  ×  e ^ε with the level of recruitment deviating from the model to a greater or lesser degree depending on the environmental conditions.     

Impact of winter‐to‐spring environmental variability along the Kuroshio jet on the recruitment of Japanese sardine (Sardinops melanostictus)

Winter‐to‐spring variability in sea surface temperature (SST) and mixed layer depth (MLD) around the Kuroshio current system and its relationship to the survival rate (ln [recruit per spawning stock biomass], LNRPS) of Japanese sardine (Sardinops melanostictus) were investigated based on a correlation analysis of data from 1980 to 1995. The data were from a high‐resolution ocean general circulation model using the ‘Kuroshio axis coordinates’, in which the meridional positions are relocated to a latitude relative to the Kuroshio axis at each longitude, rather than the geographically fixed coordinates. A significant positive (negative) correlation between LNRPS and winter MLD (winter–spring SST) was detected near the Kuroshio axis from areas south of Japan (where eggs are spawned) to the Kuroshio Extension (where larvae are transported). This result is in contrast to previous studies using geographically fixed coordinates, which showed a significant correlation predominantly in the area south of the Kuroshio Extension in winter, where at this time few larvae have been found. From the late 1980s to early 1990s, when the survival rate was remarkably low, MLD around the axis was shallow and SST was high. Although MLD and SST show a significant correlation, significant partial correlations were also observed between February MLD and LNRPS when the contribution of SST was excluded, and between March SST and LNRPS when the contribution of MLD was excluded. We presume that MLD shoaling reduced the nutrient supply from deep layers, resulting in less productivity in the spring, and SST warming could have a negative influence on larval growth.     

Variations in food abundance for Japanese sardine larvae related to the Kuroshio meander

Long-term fluctuations of chlorophyll a concentration, and abundance of herbivorous or omnivorous small copepods during the spawning season of the Japanese sardine, Sardinops melanosticta , were examined in relation to the types of Kuroshio meander. The purpose was to clarify the influence of the meander on the production of food organisms for the sardine larvae and their survival in the Pacific coastal region of central Japan. During an A-type meander of the Kuroshio, when the offshore and inshore movements of the Kuroshio path were small except at the beginning of the meander, the surface chlorophyll a concentration in the coastal region was lower than that during a non-A-type meander with frequent and prompt fluctuations of the Kuroshio path. The abundance of small copepods was also low during the A-type meander except in the subsequent spring just after the beginning of an A-type meander, but often high during the non-A-type meander. Prompt fluctuations of the Kuroshio path during the non-A-type meander probably cause local upwellings which stimulate primary and secondary production near the Kuroshio, and may enhance the survival of the sardine larvae. On the contrary, the quasi-stationary state of an A-type meander may be unfavourable for the production of phytoplankton and nauplii of herbivorous or omnivorous small copepods, and therefore the survival of the sardine larvae becomes poor.     

Size,permeability and buoyancy of anchovy (Engraulis Encrasicolus) and sardine (Sardina Pilchardus) eggs in relation to their physical environment in the Bay of Biscay

The size and specific gravity of eggs of marine pelagic fish partly determine their dispersal and survival. Using an original dataset of anchovy and sardine eggs, sampled in spring over the last decade in the Bay of Biscay, we provide a parameterization of these properties on ambient water temperature and salinity. We used the density gradient column for measurement of egg specific gravity. The column was also filled with homogeneous water for sinking velocity experiments. For anchovy, these experiments confirm that the effect of egg permeability through the chorion could be neglected when modelling sinking, while it has to be considered for sardine, its perivitelline space representing 78.6% (±6.2%) of the total egg volume, as opposed to 5–10% for most teleosts species. We estimated a coefficient of permeability of the chorion of 0.0038 mm s^?1. However, permeability should not affect the measurement of sardine egg specific gravity in a gradient column, provided a minimum duration before reading is respected for equilibrium to be reached. In relation to their environment, we found that the egg specific gravity is largely determined by sea surface salinity for both species, whereas egg size is weakly but significantly impacted by temperature, for sardine only. On average, the estimated difference in specific gravity between egg and surface water is ?0.92 σ_T for anchovy and ?1.06 σ_T for sardine. The detailed parameterization of the relationship between eggs and water properties should prove useful, in particular to modellers dealing with the dispersal of fish early life stages.     

Occurrence of Pacific bluefin tuna Thunnus orientalis larvae off the Pacific coast of Tohoku area,northeastern Japan: Possibility of the discovery of the third spawning ground

Recently, based on the histological studies it is suggested that Pacific bluefin tuna (PBF) spawns in the Kuroshio–Oyashio transition, off the Pacific coast of northeastern Japan, in addition to the previously identified two spawning areas of the northwestern Pacific around the Nansei Islands and the Sea of Japan. Distributional surveys for PBF larvae have not been conducted in the Kuroshio–Oyashio transition, and thus, we conducted PBF larval surveys at twenty stations in this area in early August 2018 to obtain evidence for the spawning of PBF. Twelve PBF larvae (3.9–7.2 mm in body length) were collected at six stations where sea surface temperature ranged from 27.2 to 28.2°C. Otolith microstructure analysis indicated that age of these larvae ranged from 4 to 11 days after hatching and the larvae hatched in late July. Growth of the collected larvae was comparable to those in the other two spawning grounds. Therefore, PBF spawns, hatches, and at least survives to the postflexion stage, 11 days after hatching in the Kuroshio–Oyashio transition. This fact potentially has a large impact on recruitment processes of PBF if they survive to recruitment in this third spawning ground.     

Long-term stock assessment and growth changes of the Japanese sardine (Sardinops melanostictus) in the Sea of Japan and East China Sea from 1953 to 2006

We estimated the stock size of Japanese sardine ( Sardinops melanostictus ) in the Sea of Japan and East China Sea since 1953 using cohort analysis based on the changes of growth patterns. Growth of Japanese sardine, estimated by using annual rings on archived scales since 1961, showed that body lengths were extremely stunted in the 1980–1987 year-classes. The body length at age 3 from February to April in the 1980–1987 year-classes, a period when the stock size exceeded 4 million tons, was 180.0 ± 2.6 mm (mean ± SD), and in the other year-classes was 195.1 ± 7.6 mm. The body length at age 3 and wet weight of zooplankton in August in the offshore area of the Sea of Japan had a significantly positive correlation. We assumed three scenarios for maturation ratios, and estimated Ricker's spawner–recruitment relationships. We analyzed the correlations between logarithmic recruitment residuals (LNRR) and environmental factors in winter, represented by the North Pacific index (NPI), Aleutian low pressure index (ALPI), Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), monsoon index (MOI), Arctic oscillation (AO) and Southern oscillation index (SOI). Significant correlations were observed between MOI and LNRR and between AO and LNRR. A combination of strong MOI and weak AO would increase the biomass of phytoplankton and zooplankton and subsequently increase the recruitment of Japanese sardine.     

Transport and survival processes of eggs and larvae of jack mackerel <Emphasis Type="Italic">Trachurus japonicus</Emphasis> in the East China Sea

ABSTRACT:   Recent surveys showed substantial aggregation of larvae of jack mackerel in the southern East China Sea, indicating intensive spawning grounds near Taiwan. A numerical model was applied to investigate transport and survival processes of eggs and larvae of jack mackerel from the spawning area to the nurseries. The results show that: (i) the distributions of larvae simulated by the model agreed well with those obtained by field survey; (ii) the stock of jack mackerel in the Sea of Japan is composed of both groups from north of Taiwan and from the western coast of Kyushu. It takes more than two months for the former to reach the Sea of Japan, while it is within 40 days for the latter; and (iii) large proportions of the eggs and larvae spawned off the north of Taiwan are transported rapidly to the Pacific side of Kyushu by the Kuroshio Current, and the rest slowly to the east or north-east along the continental slope in the East China Sea. In contrast to the larval flux, survivors are more abundant in the northern East China Sea than in the Pacific Ocean, indicating that survival in the northern East China Sea would determine the jack mackerel stock in Japan.