Effects on forest products markets of second-generation biofuel production based on biomass from boreal forests: a case study from Norway

Second-generation biofuels are often seen as essential element in the future bioeconomy strategy. Countries with extensive forest resources such as Norway often view wood as preferred bio-feedstock, yet the effects of wood demand on assortments of harvested wood and other wood-based industries are unclear. Focusing on the importance of feedstock choice, we analyse the impacts of establishing a second-generation medium-scale biofuel plant in Norway. For the analysis, a dynamic forest sector model where the choice of tree species, wood assortments, production of bioenergy, and forest industry products are explicitly included, was applied. We find the optimal biofuel feedstock mix to be dominated by softwood chips from pulpwood comprising 48% of total biomass inputs in 2030 and increasing to 67% by 2055, followed by hardwood chips from birch, comprising initially 34% of total biomass inputs and 16% by 2055. The proportion of harvest residues remained constant at about 18% over time and roundwood was not used at all for biofuel production. Despite the additional demand for chips, the single medium-scale biofuel plant will have only minor effects on existing forest industries and harvests in Norway, as the domestic impact is dampened by changes in foreign trade flows, especially of chips.     

An economic model of international wood supply,forest stock and forest area change

Abstract

Wood supply, the link between roundwood removals and forest resources, is an important component of forest sector models. This paper develops a model of international wood supply within the structure of the spatial equilibrium Global Forest Products Model. The wood supply model determines, for each country, the annual forest harvest, the annual change of forest stock and the annual change of forest area. The results suggest that global forest area would decline by 477 million ha between 1999 and 2030, with the largest decline in Asia and Africa. However, global forest stock would increase by 25 billion?m³, with the largest increase in Europe, and North and Central America. Higher global harvests and lower prices were predicted than those predicted in the past with exogenous timber supply assumptions.     

Forest product trade,wood consumption,and forest conservation—the case of 61 countries

Trade barriers of forest products are often advocated in the name of protecting forest resources. Whether the promoting of trade of forest products will increase or decrease the global forest resources is still a matter of debate. We offer an assessment of how forest product trade helps shape observed forest change, by relating wood consumption change to trade of forest products based on cross-section data from 61 countries in 2010. The result shows that wood outputs have positive effects on wood consumption. Compared to domestic production, the result suggests that imports of forest products can help reduce wood consumption. This may indicate that trade liberalization can promote the allocation efficiency of timber resources across the global, which can improve the utilization efficiency and reduce the wood consumption in the world to protect the global forest resources. It is suggested that the high-efficient harvest and wood-processing technological transfer should be advocated in the international community to contribute to global forest conservation.     

印度尼西亚实木加工业的发展及其影响因素

近30年来,印尼首次发展成为世界上第二大工业圆材出口国和最大的胶合板出口国。分析促进印尼实木业发展的因素,主要得益于其丰富的森林资源,实木加工业处于印尼实木产品出口快速增长期,具有廉价的、专业或半专业化的劳动力,对天然林工业圆材征收较低的立木税,促进实木业发展的林业贸易和工业政策,有利的地区性市场结构。还分析了印尼实木加工业的发展前景。     

Effects of accelerated tariff liberalization on the forest products sector: a global modeling approach

The objective of this study was to project the effects on the world forest sector of eliminating quickly all import tariffs. The projections were done for two scenarios: (1) progressive tariff reduction according to the current schedule of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade; (2) complete elimination of all tariffs within the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) countries. The projections were obtained with the global forest products model (GFPM), for the years 1998–2010. The model gave market equilibrium projections of quantities produced, consumed, imported and exported for each of 180 countries, and for 14 commodity groups, covering roundwood, sawnwood, wood-based panels, pulp and recycled fibers and paper and paperboard. The model also projected world equilibrium prices. The results showed that, with or without ATL agreement, the world consumption and trade of all forest products would continue to grow along the historical trends, and the world prices of forest products would increase moderately. With the elimination of tariffs in APEC countries, the projected world production and consumption of all products would change little (less than 0.5%). The tariff reduction effects would be larger for trade, and the commodity composition of world trade would shift from raw materials to more processed products. The timber harvest would change in a number of countries, but the net effect at the world scale would be small. While the US consumption and production of forest products would change little, the US would reduce its export of logs and increase exports of most processed products. The US timber harvest was expected to be indistinguishable compared to what it would be in the absence of the Accelerated Tariff Liberalization agreement.     

Long-term effects of eliminating illegal logging on the world forest industries, trade, and inventory

We assessed the impact on the world forest sector of a progressive elimination of illegal logging. The analysis compared predictions from 2007 to 2020, with and without a gradual reduction of illegally logged industrial roundwood from 2007 to 2011. A large part of the curtailment of timber supply due to the stoppage of illegal logging would be compensated by increased legal production incited by higher prices. As a result, without illegal logging the world annual production of industrial roundwood would decrease by no more than 1%, even though it would decrease by up to 8% in developing countries. World prices would rise by 1.5 to 3.5% for industrial roundwood and by 0.5 to 2% for processed products, depending on the assumption on illegal logging rates. World consumer expenditures for wood products and producer revenues would rise by 1 to 2% without illegal logging. World value added in forest industries would remain the same. However, the changes in consumer expenditures would be more than double the changes in producer revenues in countries dependent on illegally logged timber of domestic or foreign origin such as Indonesia and China. Symmetrically, changes in producer revenues would be almost twice the changes in consumer expenditures in countries with little illegal logging and efficient industries, such as Canada, Germany and the United States. Value added in forest industries would decrease most in countries with heavy illegal logging (12% in Indonesia and up to 9% in Brazil), and it would increase most in Germany, Canada (4%), and the United States (2%). Without illegal logging, the world forest inventory would increase slightly, as the increase in developing countries would more than compensate the decrease in developed countries.     

A forest optimisation model including carbon flows: Application to a forest in Norway

We analyse which management to choose in order to increase the carbon benefit from the 1.342 million ha forest area in Hedmark County, Norway, and the cost of doing this compared to traditional profit maximising behaviour. The model used in the analysis is a dynamic forest management optimisation model which includes the main carbon flows and benefits from the forest area: tree growth and mortality, litter accumulation, decomposition of dead wood and harvest residues, soil processes, end-use of wood products, and saved greenhouse gas emissions from using wood products instead of more energy intensive materials and fossil fuels.     

China's role in the global forest sector: how will the US recovery and a diminished Chinese demand influence global wood markets?

Over the last decade, while the size of China's economy more than doubled, China has simultaneously become a major producer and exporter of forest products. Although China's domestic supply of wood is significantly constrained both by a limited natural supply and by conservation-oriented policies, the country is increasingly regarded as the world's “wood workshop.” Furthermore, China is the largest driver of demand for the trade in tropical logs and is becoming a significant driver of demand for trade in coniferous logs. In this paper, we describe a spatial equilibrium model adapted to study forest sector markets and policies that affect them. We present the model and the result of two alternative future scenarios. The first scenario analyzes the impact on global forest products markets of a US recovery in wood markets. The second scenario examines the effect on global forest products markets of decelerating growth in Chinese demand for wood products. Through these two scenarios, the modeling output sheds light on the role China's wood products markets have on resource supply and trade around the world. The trade model shows substantial potential changes in global prices, production, and trade activity associated with the recovery in domestic demand in the USA.     

Economic impacts of accelerating forest growth in Europe

The global forest sector model EFI-GTM was applied to assess regional impacts in Europe of increased timber supply caused by potential acceleration of forest growth in Europe. The EFI-GTM is a multi-periodic partial equilibrium model, which contains 31 European regions and 30 regions for the rest of the world, and trade between the regions. The endogenous sectors include 26 forest industry products and six wood categories. Three alternative forest growth scenarios were analysed: a base line assuming the present annual rate of growth in the European countries, and two accelerating growth scenarios corresponding to a 20 and 40% increase after 20 years in the forest growth relative to the baseline growth. In the accelerated growth scenarios equilibrium prices for logs and sawnwood decreased significantly from the baseline levels, whereas the other forest product prices were not affected much. Depending on region and timber category, the log prices in 2020 were 7–9 and 13–17% lower than the base line prices in the medium and high forest growth scenarios, respectively. For sawnwood, the corresponding price decreases were 2 and 3.5–4.5%. In Western Europe, log harvest and sawnwood production increased because accelerated forest growth substituted for imports of these commodities from Russia and Eastern European countries. This decreased the harvests in Russia and Eastern Europe relative to the base case. In all the three forest growth scenarios the forest owners income as well as the forest industry profit increase over time.     

Competition of wood products with different fiber transformation and import sources

Japan and China have been two leading importers of wood products in the global market, and the trade pattern for China since 1993 has largely repeated that for Japan in the 1960s. In this study, the import demand of wood products in Japan and China between 1995 and 2013 by product type and source is assessed using the translog cost function and cointegration analysis. Wood products are classified into three main types by the degree of processing and transformation on wood fiber: roundwood, sawnwood, and wood-based panels. The own-price elasticities are overall inelastic, but they can become very elastic for some source-differentiated products (e.g., sawnwood import by Japan and roundwood import by China from the United States). Clear substitutability across product types and supplying sources is identified. Wood products with a different degree of processing or from different sources can be substituted with each other when they are used by wood-utilizing industries in the importing countries. The substitute relation will continue to present both opportunities for economic development and challenges for global environment protection.     

Impact of the 2 °C target on global woody biomass use

In this study we investigate the implications of reaching the 2 °C climate target for global woody biomass use by applying the Global Biosphere Management Model (GLOBIOM) and the recently published SSP-RCP scenario calculations. We show that the higher biomass demand for energy needed to reach the 2 °C target can be achieved without significant distortions to woody biomass material use and that it can even benefit certain forest industries and regions. This is because the higher woody biomass use for energy increases the demand for forest industry by-products, which makes forest industry final products production more profitable and compensates for the cost effect of increased competition over raw materials. The higher woody biomass use for energy is found to benefit sawnwood, plywood and chemical pulp production, which provide large amounts of by-products, and to inhibit fiberboard and mechanical pulp production, which provide small amounts of by-products. At the regional level, the higher woody biomass use for energy is found to benefit material production in regions, which use little roundwood for energy (Russia, North-America and EU28), and to inhibit material production in regions, which use large amounts of roundwood for energy (Asia, Africa and South-America). Even if the 2 °C target increases harvest volumes in the tropical regions significantly compared to the non-mitigation scenario, harvest volumes remain in these regions at a relatively low level compared to the harvest potential.     

Carbon stock changes of forest land in Finland under different levels of wood use and climate change

Context

Prediction of the effect of harvests and climate change (CC) on the changes in carbon stock of forests is necessary both for CC mitigation and adaptation purposes.

Aims

We assessed the impact of roundwood and fuelwood removals and climate change (CC) on the changes in carbon stock of Finnish forests during 2007–2042. We considered three harvest scenarios: two based on the recent projections of roundwood and fuelwood demand, and the third reflecting the maximum sustainable cutting level. We applied two climate scenarios: the climate was in the state that prevailed around year 2006, or it changed according to the IPCC SRES A1B scenario.

Methods

We combined the large-scale forestry model MELA with the soil carbon model Yasso07 for mineral soils. For soils of drained, forested peatlands, we used a method based on emission factors.

Results

The stock change of trees accounted for approximately 80 % of the total stock change. Trees and mineral soils acted as carbon sinks and the drained peatland soils as a carbon source. The forest carbon sink increased clearly in both of the demand-based scenarios, reaching the level of 13–20 Tg C/year (without CC). The planned increase in the use of bioenergy reduced the forest sink by 2.6 Tg C/year. CC increased the forest carbon sink in 2042 by 38 %–58 % depending on the scenario. CC decreased the sink of mineral soils in the initial years of the simulations; after 2030, the effect was slightly positive. CC increased the emissions from the drained peatland soils.

Conclusions

It is likely that forest land in Finland acts as a carbon sink in the future. The changes in carbon stocks of trees, mineral soils, and peatland soils respond differently to CC and fuelwood and roundwood harvests.     

An integrated assessment approach to optimal forest bioenergy production for young Scots pine stands

Background: Bioenergy is re-shaping opportunities and imperatives of forest management. This study demonstrates,through a case study in Scots pine(Pinus sylvestris L.), how forest bioenergy policies affect stand management strategies.Methods: Optimization studies were examined for 15 Scots pine stands of different initial stand densities, site types, and temperature sum regions in Finland. Stand development was model ed using the Pipe Qual stand simulator coupled with the simulation-optimization tool Opti For Bioenergy to assess three forest bioenergy policies on energy wood harvest from early thinnings.Results: The optimal solutions maximizing bare land value indicate that conventional forest management regimes remain optimal for sparse stands. Energy harvests occurred only when profitable, led to lower financial returns. A forest bioenergy policy which included compulsory energy wood harvesting was optimal for denser stands. At a higher interest rate(4 %), increasing energy wood price postponed energy wood harvesting. In addition, our results show that early thinning somewhat reduced wood quality for stands in fertile sites. For less fertile sites, the changes were insignificant.Conclusions: A constraint of profitable energy wood harvest is not rational. It is optimal to carry out the first thinning with a flexible forest bioenergy policy depending on stand density.     

Bioenergy from the forest sector: Economic potential and interactions with timber and forest products markets in Norway

Abstract

A partial equilibrium forest sector model which is augmented to include bioenergy was applied to project the use of bioenergy based on forest fuels and forest industry by-products in Norway for three different scenarios of the future prices of electricity and oil. The impacts on forestry and forest industries of the different energy price scenarios were also studied. The advantage of the suggested methodology is that it allows for assessments of the economic potential of bioenergy, taking into account the competition for raw materials, the specific heat demand of various regions, and interregional and international trade. Bioenergy will, according to this study, be fairly competitive in some market segments with the current price levels of electricity and oil, and only a minor increase (decrease) in energy (roundwood) prices would release substantially increased bioenergy production levels. Pulpwood prices of pine and non-coniferous species are projected to increase substantially when assuming increasing energy prices. Except for particleboard mills, production levels of forest industries appeared relatively insensitive to the energy price changes.     

Carbon,Fossil Fuel,and Biodiversity Mitigation With Wood and Forests

Life-cycle analyses, energy analyses, and a range of utilization efficiencies were developed to determine the carbon dioxide (CO₂) and fossil fuel (FF) saved by various solid wood products, wood energy, and unharvested forests. Some products proved very efficient in CO₂ and FF savings, while others did not. Not considering forest regrowth after harvest or burning if not harvested, efficient products save much more CO₂ than the standing forest; but wood used only for energy generally saves slightly less. Avoided emissions (using wood in place of steel and concrete) contributes the most to CO₂ and FF savings compared to the product and wood energy contributions. Burning parts of the harvested logs that are not used for products creates an additional CO₂ and FF savings. Using wood substitutes could save 14 to 31% of global CO₂ emissions and 12 to 19% of global FF consumption by using 34 to 100% of the world’s sustainable wood growth. Maximizing forest CO₂ sequestration may not be compatible with biodiversity. More CO₂ can be sequestered synergistically in the products or wood energy and landscape together than in the unharvested landscape. Harvesting sustainably at an optimum stand age will sequester more carbon in the combined products, wood energy, and forest than harvesting sustainably at other ages.     

中国林产品化学利用概况

林产品化学利用是指以木质和非木质林产品为原料,经化学加工制备国民经济所需的各种产品.主要包括木材制浆造纸、木质活性炭、松脂化学加工、植物单宁、林产精油、植物提取物等.近年来中国林产化学工业发展较快,特别是建设林纸一体化工程,为发展木材制浆工业,改变中国制浆造纸工业原料结构创造了良好的条件,按计划2005年木浆产量将达380万t,2010年达750万t.松香产量已超过50万t/a,出口约30万t/a.木质活性炭产量达6万t/a.随着我国经济的发展对林化产品的需求将进一步扩大.     

Impacts of the currency value change on the forest products import quantities in Korea

This study estimated the impacts of the currency value change on the forest products import quantities in Korea using vector autoregressive model. The first objective is to analyze whether there is any causal relationship between change in the currency value and changes in the import quantities of forest products in Korea. Assuming that there is any causal relationship, the second objective is to evaluate the dynamics of the impacts of the currency value change on the forest products import quantities in Korea. The causal relationship was analyzed by the causality test of Granger. The relationship between the currency value and the import quantity was represented by vector autoregressive model. And the dynamics were evaluated by variance decomposition analysis and impulse response analysis. Change in the currency value causes change in the hardwood roundwood import quantity in Korea. In the model of the hardwood roundwood import quantity, after 6 months, the currency value change accounts for approximately 10% of variation in the import quantity. On the other hand, the impact of a shock to the currency value is significant for approximately 10 months on the import quantity of hardwood roundwood in Korea.     

An assessment of gains and losses from international trade in the forest sector

The importance of international trade for the welfare of actors in the forest sector was estimated by comparing the current state of the world with a world in pure autarky with zero imports and exports of roundwood and manufactured wood products. The analysis was done with a comparative statics application of the Global Forest Products Model. The model was first calibrated to replicate observations in the base year 2013, and then solved under autarky conditions. The results showed much variation in the effects of international trade on production, consumption, and prices across countries and sub sectors. Globally international trade did have a positive effect on the economic welfare of the sector. This was due mostly to the positive effect on the surplus of consumers, and to a lesser extent on the increase in value added in forest industries. But value added profited manufacturers in developed countries much more than in developing. Furthermore, while wood producers in developed countries increased their profits with trade, those in developing countries incurred heavy losses that negated any incentive to invest in forest conservation, management and new plantations.     

Efficiency in wood and fiber utilization in OECD countries

Utilization efficiency has been defined as the ratio of the amount of industrial roundwood (or wood pulp) consumed in a country and year to the amount that would have been consumed to produce the same output with a reference technology. The reference technology was described by the average input–output relationships in countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), from 1961 to 2005. The results showed that the efficiency of industrial roundwood utilization increased in most OECD countries from 1961 to 2005. There was also a strong decrease in the amount of wood pulp used for a given level of paper and paperboard production. Regression analysis with cross-sectional data suggested that the main determinant of the differences in efficiency of wood utilization between countries was the forest area per capita. The wood pulp price and population density were the main variables explaining the differences in wood pulp utilization between countries.     

Biofuel harvests, coarse woody debris, and biodiversity - A meta-analysis

Forest harvest operations often produce large amounts of harvest residue which typically becomes fine (foliage, small limbs and trees) and coarse woody debris (snags and downed logs). If removed at harvest, residual biomass has potential to be a local energy source and to produce marketable biofuel feedstock. But, CWD in particular serves critical life-history functions (e.g., breeding, foraging, basking) for a variety of organisms. Unfortunately, little is known about how forest biodiversity would respond to large scale removal of harvest residues. We calculated 745 biodiversity effect sizes from 26 studies involving manipulations of CWD (i.e., removed or added downed woody debris and/or snags). Diversity and abundance of both cavity- and open-nesting birds were substantially and consistently lower in treatments with lower amounts of downed CWD and/or standing snags, as was biomass of invertebrates. However, cumulative effect sizes for other taxa were not as large, were based on fewer studies, and varied among manipulation types. Little is currently known about biodiversity response to harvest of fine woody debris. Predicting the effects of biomass harvests on forest biodiversity is uncertain at best until more is known about how operational harvests actually change fine and coarse woody debris levels over long time periods. Pilot biomass harvests report post-harvest changes in CWD levels much smaller than the experimental changes involved in the studies we analyzed. Thus, operational biomass harvests may not change CWD levels enough to appreciably influence forest biodiversity, especially when following biomass harvest guidelines that require leaving a portion of harvest residues. Multi-scale studies can help reduce this uncertainty by investigating how biodiversity responses scale from the small scale of manipulative experiments (i.e., 10-ha plots) to operational forest management and how biodiversity response to CWD levels might vary at different spatial and temporal scales and in different landscape contexts.