Climate risks and forest practices: forest owners' acceptance of advice concerning climate change

Based on qualitative interviews with Swedish forest owners this study focuses on climate change, risk management and forest governance from the perspective of the forest owners. The Swedish forest governance system has undergone extensive deregulation, with the result that social norms and knowledge dissemination are seen by the state as important means of influencing forest owners' understandings and practices. Drawing on Foucault's concept of governmentality this study contributes knowledge on how forest owners understand and manage climate-related risk and their acceptance of advice. From the interview study, three main conclusions can be drawn: (1) forest owners' considerations largely concern ordinary forestry activities; (2) knowledge about forest management and climate adaptation combines experiences and ideas from various sources; and (3) risk awareness and knowledge of “best practices” are not enough to ensure change in forestry practices. The results of this study show that the forest owners have to be selective and negotiate about what knowledge to consider relevant and meaningful for their own forest practice. Accordingly, local forest management can be understood as situated in a web of multifarious interests, claims, concerns and knowledges, where climate change adaptation is but one of several aspects that forest owners have to consider.     

Forest management and forest state in southern Sweden before and after the impact of storm Gudrun in the winter of 2005

About three times the annual cut in southern Sweden (Götaland) was damaged by the storm Gudrun in January 2005, i.e. almost as much as the normal annual cut for all of Sweden. To establish any differences in forest management and state before and after the storm, measures such as growing stock volume, age-class distribution, and species composition were analyzed within the damaged area. As a reference the situation before and after the storm within the area in Götaland not damaged by the storm was also analyzed. For all analyses, sample plots from the Swedish National Forest Inventory were used. Results based on mean values for the years 2000–2004/2005–2009 showed that the total growing stock for the damaged area decreased by approximately 30 million m³ after the storm. This was mainly caused by a decrease in Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) H. Karst). Annual growth for pine, spruce, and deciduous trees decreased by 1.8 million m³ in the damaged area. This mainly included stands already thinned and not, as expected, in the stands ready for final felling. Also, the proportional area within each of the age classes 21–40, 41–60, and 61–80 years decreased. The storm led to an increased area in immediate need of precommercial thinning. No changes in choice of species when regenerating could be observed. Furthermore, only marginal adaptation by forest owners to future risk of wind throw could be detected.     

Climate change and the probability of wind damage in two Swedish forests

We simulated how possible changes in wind and ground-frost climate and state of the forest due to changes in the future climate may affect the probability of exceeding critical wind speeds expected to cause wind damage within one northern and one southern study area in Sweden, respectively. The topography of the study areas was relatively gentle and the forests were dominated by Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) and Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.). Using estimated changes in the net primary production (NPP) due to climate change and assuming a relative change in the site productivity equal to a relative change in NPP, we simulated possible future states of the forest under gradual adjustment of the site index in response to climate change using the model The Forest Time Machine. Global climate change scenarios based on two emission scenarios and one general circulation model were downscaled to the regional level. The modified WINDA model was used to calculate the sensitivity of the forest to wind and the probability of wind damage for individual forest stands for the periods 2011–2041 and 2071–2100 and for a control period 1961–1990. This was done while taking into account effects on stability of the forest from expected changes in the occurrence of ground frost. Increasing sensitivity of the forest to wind was indicated for both study areas when adhering to recommended management rules of today. Adding also a changed wind climate further increased the probability of wind damage. Calculated probabilities of wind damage were generally higher in the southern study area than in the northern one and were explained by differences in wind climate and the state of the forests, for example with respect to tree species composition. The indicated increase in sensitivity of the forest to wind under the current management regime, and possibly increasing windiness, motivate further analysis of the effects of different management options on the probability of wind damage and what modifications of Swedish forest management are possibly warranted.     

Why do forest owners fail to heed warnings? Conflicting risk evaluations made by the Swedish forest agency and forest owners

In the aftermath of a hurricane in Sweden that felled some 250 million trees, the Swedish Forest Agency advised forest owners to reduce forest vulnerability by planting different tree species. This paper analyses why forest owners failed to heed the Forest Agency's recommendation, thereby reproducing a forest vulnerable to storms. This paper focuses on the deliberations and risk evaluations of forest owners when deciding which tree species to plant. The analysis identifies three main categories of reasoning that guided the forest owners' decision-making process: short-term economic reasoning caused by the pressing situation they faced; an understanding of windstorms as natural catastrophes that are impossible to influence; and the uncertainties associated with alternative forest management practices. Furthermore, given their risk-averse strategy, their approach to understanding and coping with uncertainty was crucial in determining their responses. This paper concludes that the forest owners primarily employed experience-based, practical and embodied knowledge, implying that abstract risks and theoretical knowledge regarding future developments were not deemed relevant. An additional conclusion is that even if a huge storm felling shows the need to change forest management practice, it does not provide the most favourable social conditions for achieving change.     

Stakeholder perceptions,management and impacts of forestry conflicts in southern Sweden

ABSTRACT

Forests are under increasing pressure with increasing risk of conflicts between stakeholder groups with different interests in sustainable forest management (SFM). This study investigated the different dimensions of conflict as perceived by private forest owners and other stakeholders, and the likely impact of these pressures on SFM in a southern Swedish context. Data were collected through a mixed methods approach using qualitative in-depth individual semi-structured interviews, focus group discussions and a quantitative survey (n?=?6–161), with questions on present and past conflicts, actors, drivers, acting, management and solutions. Stakeholders felt that in the past the conflicts were more about technical dimensions of forestry practice, and today more about the political and cultural dimensions of forestry issues. The most frequently mentioned reason for forest conflict was forest protection, especially woodland key habitats. In all conflicts, forest owners emphasised the importance of knowledge, responsibility and emotions. Other stakeholders did too, but with emotions less emphasised. In managing conflict, meetings, adaptation and education were stressed by stakeholders. Dialogue arenas on different levels are needed for all stakeholders. Governing bodies also need to realise the implication different approaches and strategies have on forest owners management.     

Explaining gender differences in private forest risk management

In many countries, lower levels of forest management activities have been observed among female forest owners compared to male owners. The present study examined potential explanations for gender differences in private forest risk management among forest owners in Sweden (n?=?1482) using a questionnaire. Results from this study confirmed a slightly lower level of forest risk management among female owners in proactively combating damage caused by climate change and animal browsing when compared to their male counterparts. Further gender differences were revealed on a structural level. For example, female owners displayed higher levels of education and were more often non-resident owners and urban owners, as compared to their male counterparts. In addition, female and male owners differed regarding social-psychological variables (e.g. forest values and threat and coping appraisals). However the greatest gender difference was found in involvement in forest planning and forestry work. Even though gender differences were evident on multiple levels, involvement in forest issues and forest planning were found to be most important for explaining gender differences in forest risk management. By disentangling predictors of gender differences in private forest risk management, this study may contribute to a more strategic gender approach to forest risk governance.     

Exploring adaptation to climate change in the forests of central Nova Scotia, Canada

The threat of climate change is now recognized as an imminent issue at the forefront of the forest sector. Incorporating adaptation to climate change into forest management will be vital in the continual and sustainable provision of forest ecosystem services. The objective of this study is to investigate climate change adaptation in forest management using the landscape disturbance model LANDIS-II. The study area was comprised of 14,000 ha of forested watersheds in central Nova Scotia, Canada, managed by Halifax Water, the municipal water utility. Simulated climate change adaptation was directed towards three components of timber harvesting: the canopy-opening size of harvests, the age of harvested trees within a stand, and the species composition of harvested trees within a stand. These three adaptation treatments were simulated singly and in combination with each other in the modeling experiment. The timber supply was found to benefit from climate change in the absence of any adaptation treatment, though there was a loss of target tree species and old growth forest. In the age treatment, all trees in a harvested stand at or below the age of sexual maturity were exempt from harvesting. This was done to promote more-rapid succession to climax forest communities typical of the study area. It was the most effective in maintaining the timber supply, but least effective in promoting resistance to climate change at the prescribed harvest intensity. In the composition treatment, individual tree species were selected for harvest based on their response to climate change in previous research and on management values at Halifax Water to progressively facilitate forest transition under the altered climate. This proved the most effective treatment for maximizing forest age and old-growth area and for promoting stands composed of climatically suited target species. The size treatment was aimed towards building stand complexity and resilience to climate change, and was the most influential treatment on the response of timber supply, forest age, and forest composition to timber harvest when it was combined with other treatments. The combination of all three adaptation treatments yielded an adequate representation of target species and old forest without overly diminishing the timber supply, and was therefore the most effective in minimizing the trade-offs between management values and objectives. These findings support a diverse and multi-faceted approach to climate change adaptation.     

Do forest decision-makers in Southeastern Norway adapt forest management to climate change?

To study whether, why, and how forestry decision-makers in Southeastern Norway adapt to climate change, we conducted a series of semi-structured interviews in focus groups consisting of non-industrial private forest owners, forest managers, and forest advisors. Our results show that a majority of the participants believed in climate change as a phenomenon, and had experienced events or observed changes that they attributed to climate change. However, we found little evidence of concern regarding climate change impacts on forest ecosystems and forestry among the participants. Instead, the majority regarded climate change more as an opportunity for the Norwegian forest-based sector than a threat. A minority had implemented proactive practices motivated by climate change but in all but one case, the adjustments were adaptation of forest infrastructure. In general, the participants agreed that the uncertainty associated with the effects of climate change and the (economical) uncertainty associated with adaptation of forest ecosystems were too large to change forest management practices at present. However, many participants, in particular the managers, are already adapting in response to experienced problems, such as increased frequency and duration of periods with low carrying capacity of the ground implying reduced or no accessibility within and to stands.     

Extreme events and climate change: the post-disaster dynamics of forest fires and forest storms in Sweden

How are extreme events understood in the forest sector? What are the implications of forest professionals' understandings and evaluations of extreme events? These questions are central to this study, which analyses the handling of the largest forest storm and the largest forest fire in modern Swedish history. The theoretical approach is that of risk governance in practice, which stresses that understanding the framings, practices and strategies used by members of professional organizations is pivotal for how disasters are managed. Two interview studies have been conducted with forest professionals involved in the two cases. The analysis shows that there were fundamentally different understandings of the two events and their implications for forestry practice. The storm was seen as an unavoidable natural disaster, but the consequences of future storms were considered possible to mitigate through changed forest practices. The forest fire, on the other hand, was conceptualized as a partly natural and partly man-made disaster, and forestry was seen as having very limited possibilities to reduce the likelihood as well as the consequences of similar events. The different understandings had significant implications for the post-disaster dynamics and for which management practices that were developed. Thus, understanding how extreme events are perceived is crucial to understanding which management practices that emerge in their wake, a topic of growing relevance because climate change is predicted to increase the frequency of forest fires and storms.     

Is forest insurance a relevant vector to induce adaptation efforts to climate change?

? Key message

Insurance might be an efficient tool to strengthen adaptation of forest management to climate change. A theoretical model under uncertainty is proposed to highlight the effect, on adaptation decisions, of considering adaptation efforts in forest insurance contracts. Results show that insurance is relevant to increase adaptation efforts under some realistic conditions on forest owner’s uncertainty and risk preferences, and on the observability or not of adaptation efforts.

? Context

One of the challenges of forest adaptation to climate change is to encourage private forest owners to implement adaptation strategies.

? Aims

We suggest the analysis of forest insurance contracts against natural hazards as a vector to promote the implementation of adaptation efforts by private forest owners.

? Methods

We propose a theoretical model of insurance economics under risk and under uncertainty.

? Results

Our results indicate that when climate change makes the probability of the occurrence of the natural event uncertain, then it may be relevant to include adaptation efforts in the insurance contract, leading to an increase in the adaptation efforts of risk-averse and uncertainty-averse forest owners. In addition, we show that the relevance of insurance as a vector to promote adaptation efforts is greater when the forest owner’s effort is unobservable by the insurer as compared to a situation of perfectly observable effort.

? Conclusion

Under some realistic assumptions, the forest insurance contract seems to be a relevant tool to encourage forest owners to adapt to climate change.

     

Forest owners’ views on storing carbon in their forests

Given the high percentage of private forest ownership in Finland, family forest owners have an important role in mitigating climate change. The study aims to explore Finnish family forest owners’ perceptions on climate change and their opinions on increasing carbon storage in their forests through new kinds of management activities and policy instruments. The data consists of thematic face-to-face interviews among Helsinki metropolitan area forest owners (n?=?15). These city-dwellers were expected to be more aware of and more interested in climate change mitigation than forest owners at large. Forests as carbon fluxes appear to be a familiar concept to most of the forest owners, but carbon storage in their own forests was a new idea. Four types concerning forest owners’ view on storing carbon in their forests could be identified. The Pioneer utilizes forestland versatilely and has already adopted practices to mitigate climate change. The Potential is concerned about climate change, but this is not seen in forest practices applied. The Resistant is generally aware of climate change but sees a fundamental contradiction between carbon storing and wood production. The Indifferent Owner believes that climate change is taking place but does not acknowledge a relation between climate change and the owner’s forests.     

Mitigating Climate Change Through Small-Scale Forestry in the USA: Opportunities and Challenges

Forest management for carbon sequestration is a low-cost, low-technology, relatively easy way to help mitigate global climate change that can be adopted now while additional long-term solutions are developed. Carbon-oriented management of forests also offers forest owners an opportunity to obtain a new source of income, and commonly has environmental co-benefits. The USA is developing climate change policy that recognizes forestry as a source of offsets in carbon markets, and the emissions trading programs and standards that have developed to date offer opportunities for afforestation, reforestation, reduced emissions from deforestation and forest degradation, and improved forest management projects. Private forest owners are key players in carbon markets because they own over half of the forest land in the USA and carbon offsetting from public forest land is rare. However, a number of environmental, economic, and social constraints currently limit carbon market participation by forest owners. Key issues include: the low price of carbon and high cost of market entry; whether small landowners can gain market access; how to meet requirements such as management plans and certification; and whether managing for carbon is consistent with other forest management goals. This paper provides an overview of current and emerging opportunities for family forest owners to contribute to climate change mitigation in the USA, and explores ways of overcoming some of the challenges so that they can take advantage of these opportunities.     

Forest owners' attitudes toward pro-climate and climate-responsive forest management

Climate change is a global concern. Within Nordic countries such as Finland it has particular influence on the use of natural resources. Family forest owners own 61% of the forested land in Finland and 80% of the industrial roundwood purchased comes from these forest owners. Thus how private forest owners approach climate change is of high national economic and ecological importance. In order to understand family forest owners' perspectives on climate change in their own forests, qualitative interviews along walks through the owner's forests were conducted. Analysis of the conversations during these walks highlighted that forest owners discussed the phenomenon without prompting more often than hypothesized. Additionally, forest owners were less certain as to the causes of changes observed in their forests, mostly willing to take advice from professionals, and economically-driven in their response. For those forest owners who did express concern regarding climate change, they were at a loss for ways their efforts could make a meaningful difference. The prevalent uncertainty among forest owners calls for guidance from authority. Policy practices should make an effort to combine monetary incentives along with climate change focused forest management practices. Additionally, forest owner's reliance on the advice and expertise of forestry professionals should be utilized when pursuing climate-motivated forest management.     

Assessing risks and uncertainties in forest dynamics under different management scenarios and climate change

Background: Forest management faces a climate induced shift in growth potential and increasing current and emerging new risks. Vulnerability analysis provides decision support based on projections of natural resources taking risks and uncertainties into account. In this paper we(1) characterize differences in forest dynamics under three management scenarios,(2) analyse the effects of the three scenarios on two risk factors, windthrow and drought stress, and(3) quantify the effects and the amount of uncertainty arising from climate projections on height increment and drought stress.Methods: In four regions in northern Germany, we apply three contrasting management scenarios and project forest development under climate change until 2070. Three climate runs(minimum, median, maximum) based on the emission scenario RCP 8.5 control the site-sensitive forest growth functions. The minimum and maximum climate run define the range of prospective climate development.Results: The projections of different management regimes until 2070 show the diverging medium-term effects of thinnings and harvests and long-term effects of species conversion on a regional scale. Examples of windthrow vulnerability and drought stress reveal how adaptation measures depend on the applied management path and the decision-maker's risk attitude. Uncertainty analysis shows the increasing variability of drought risk projections with time. The effect of climate projections on height growth are quantified and uncertainty analysis reveals that height growth of young trees is dominated by the age-trend whereas the climate signal in height increment of older trees is decisive.Conclusions: Drought risk is a serious issue in the eastern regions independent of the applied silvicultural scenario,but adaptation measures are limited as the proportion of the most drought tolerant species Scots pine is already high. Windthrow risk is no serious overall threat in any region, but adequate counter-measures such as species conversion, species mixture or reduction of target diameter can be taken. This simulation study of three silvicultural scenarios and three climate runs spans a decision space of potential forest development to be used for decision making. Which adaptation measures to counteract climate induced risks and uncertainty are to be taken is,however, a matter of individual risk attitude.     

Norwegian family forest owners' willingness to participate in carbon offset programs

Forests act as carbon sinks and can make significant contributions to climate change mitigation efforts. In Norway, family forest owners own 80% of productive forestland and play a central role in the management of the country's forests. Yet little is known about whether these landowners would be interested in increasing carbon sequestration on their land and selling carbon credits. Only a handful of studies have examined the factors that motivate family forest owners to participate in carbon offset programs, and all of these studies have been conducted in the United States. This study addresses this information gap using data from a mail survey of 1500 Norwegian family forest owners. A logistic regression model was developed to examine the effect of various carbon program, forestland, and landowner characteristics on participation in a hypothetical carbon offset program. Results suggest that there is a considerable amount of interest among Norwegian family forest owners and that the most important predictors of participation are payment amount offered, perceived barriers posed by management actions, importance placed on non-market forest amenities, and attitudes towards climate change.     

Climate change mitigation via afforestation,reforestation and deforestation avoidance: and what about adaptation to environmental change?

Climate change is affecting the world’s ecosystems and threatening the economic system, livelihoods and availability of natural resources. Forest ecosystems can be carbon sources or sinks and are therefore integrated in international climate policy. Forest-related carbon mitigation projects are threatened by climate change through altered environmental conditions and forest processes, as well as through synergistic effects of climate change impacts with already existing socioeconomic and environmental stressors. Data on risk management and adaptation strategies were collected by a survey of 28 current forest projects targeting climate change mitigation. Ten of these represent the officially implemented afforestation (A) and reforestation (R) activities under the UNFCCC and the Kyoto protocol. Additionally, the official methodologies for AR activities under the CDM (Scope 14) were examined for potential climate change adaptation requirements. As a result, the adaptation of forest mitigation projects to climate change is found to be insufficient. A systematic approach for the inclusion of climate change risk management and adaptation is developed and guidelines for the design of “climate-change-proof” afforestation, reforestation and deforestation avoidance projects are proposed. A broader mainstreaming of the issue is required and clear policy regulations are necessary, especially for the post-Kyoto process.     

To insure or not to insure? Analysis of foresters' willingness-to-pay for fire and storm insurance

Natural catastrophes in forests have become more damaging in recent years and are expected to further increase according to climate change scenarios. Currently, governmental measures mostly focus on providing financial support, such as direct payments, to forest owners after disasters. However, in the light of more weather extremes, this could lead to a heavier financial burden for national budgets. Therefore, the current financial support system has to be reconsidered with regard to privatizing foresters' risks. Insurance could play a key role, but in many countries forests are rarely insured. In order to explain insurance coverage, we analyzed foresters' preferences regarding fire and storm insurance, which are expressed as their willingness-to-pay (WTP). Therefore, we measured the risk attitude and conducted a discrete choice experiment with 137 German foresters, using various policy and forest enterprise scenarios. Our results show that most foresters have a very low WTP for insurance, and individual risk attitude was not of significant influence. The WTP was higher for fire than for storm insurance, presumably due to liquidity preservation motives. Policy programs involving unconditional support after disaster reduced the WTP. Instead, subsidized insurance premiums increased the WTP and thus, should be considered to establish an efficient insurance market.     

Forest discourses and the role of planning-related perspectives: the case of Sweden

Forest use in Sweden may be seen as constituting an essentially conflicted area, in which a number of actors position themselves. Based on a review of policy documents, this study reviews discourses on forest amongst major organisational actors between 2001 and 2011, with the aim of discussing the ways in which discourse may have changed following increasing criticism of the previously dominating production paradigm during the period. The study also discusses the ways in which forest discourses at present may also exclude areas that are relevant to forest planning. Results illustrates the continuous role of, on the one hand, production and private ownership discourses among the forest industry, and, on the other, conservation and public access discourses, among environmental and other NGOs. Large differences thus continue to exist despite the double aim towards production and protection in Swedish forest law. Areas that are not directly related to this nexus although related to land use at large, such as municipal planning, on the other hand, are largely absent from discourse even if, for instance, shore planning and wind power issues that are related to municipal planning are taken up.     

Perceptions of Small Private Forest Owner’s Vulnerability and Adaptive Capacity to Environmental Disturbances and Climate Change: Views from a Heterogeneous Population in Southern Quebec,Canada

A study on the perception of vulnerability and adaptive capacity to climate change (CC) was realised among 27 small private forest owners (SPFOs) of a region in southern Quebec. In-depth semi-structured interviews were conducted with SPFOs of diverse profiles to better understand their perception of environmental disturbances and their needs to improve forest management in relation to global change and more precisely to CC. The main purpose of the research was to better understand whether perceptions of vulnerability and adaptive capacity to CC can constitute a barrier to proactive actions toward adaptation. Qualitative data shows a spectrum of attitudes and perceptions which highlight how SPFOs identify different potential and actual disturbances and assess the risk they represent for their forest-based activities. It shows how place-based experiences of environmental disturbances shape perceptions of vulnerability and capacity to adapt to disturbances. Factors such as access to financial resources and perceived resilience of forest ecosystem influence perceived adaptive capacity. Most SPFOs who participated in the research do not perceive their forest or forest-based activities to be vulnerable to CC, which may constitute a barrier to proactive adaptation to CC. The awareness of CC as a general phenomenon does necessarily translate into adaptation in forestry practices. Yet, many participants expressed a need for better access to knowledge and financial support to improve adaptive capacities to CC and broader environmental or economic stressors.     

The Faustmann model under storm risk and price uncertainty: A case study of European beech in Northwestern France

International, economic and environmental contexts in this century are strongly affected by risks and uncertainties. Due to the long-term nature of forest investment, forest managers must integrate risks and uncertainties into their decisions. Our objective is to build a decision support tool to optimize forest management under multiple risks: extreme events and price variations. Our method integrates, into an economic model, different types of models on forest growth, price functions, predicted storm intensity and intervals, and damage functions. A numerical simulation applied to European beech (Fagus sylvatica) in Northwestern France shows that price variation as between 1974 and 2016 produces higher economic loss than does storm damage. We conclude on the need to concentrate forest policy on the development of new technologies and wood industry practices to increase the value of this natural resource. However, future climate change may well influence storm frequency and intensity, and this places limits on our conclusions.