Computer simulations of homeward-migrating Fraser River sockeye salmon: is compass orientation a sufficient direction-finding mechanism in the north-east Pacific Ocean?

Computer simulations were used to investigate whether compass orientation is a sufficient guidance mechanism for sockeye salmon migrating to the Fraser River from their ocean foraging grounds in the north-east Pacific Ocean. Daily surface ocean currents, simulated by the ocean surface current simulations (OSCURS) model, were used to test the influence of currents on the return oceanic migration of Fraser River sockeye salmon. High seas tagging and coastal recover data of Fraser River sockeye salmon were used for the migration simulations. Surface currents were shown to increase the speed of the homeward-migrating sockeye salmon, as well as to deflect the fish in a north-eastward direction. In spite of ocean currents, all Fraser River sockeye salmon were able to reach their destination with a fixed direction and bioenergetically efficient swimming speed when migration was delayed until the last month at sea. Compass orientation alone was shown to be a sufficient direction-finding mechanism for Fraser River sockeye salmon.     

Chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta) growth and temperature indices as indicators of the year–class strength of age‐1 walleye pollock (Gadus chalcogrammus) in the eastern Bering Sea

Ecosystem‐based fisheries management requires the development of physical and biological time series that index ocean productivity for stock assessment and recruitment forecasts for commercially important species. As recruitment in marine fish is related to ocean condition, we developed proxies for ocean conditions based on sea surface temperature (SST) and biometric measurements of chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta) captured in the walleye pollock (Gadus chalcogrammus) fishery in the eastern Bering Sea in three periods (July 16–30, September 1–15 and September 16–30). The main purpose of this paper was to evaluate Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) growth as a possible indicator of ocean conditions that, in turn, may affect age‐1 walleye pollock recruitment. Marine growth rates of Pacific salmon are the result of a complex interplay of physical, biological and population‐based factors that fish experience as they range through oceanic habitats. These growth rates can, therefore, be viewed as indicators of recent ocean productivity. Thus, our hypothesis was that estimated intra‐annual growth in body weight of immature and maturing age‐4 male and female chum salmon may be used as a biological indicator of variations in rearing conditions also experienced by age‐0 walleye pollock; consequently, they may be used to predict the recruitment to age‐1 in walleye pollock. Summer SSTs and chum salmon growth at the end of July and September explained the largest amount of variability in walleye pollock recruitment indicating that physical and biological indices of ocean productivity can index fish recruitment.     

Effects of the North Pacific Current on the productivity of 163 Pacific salmon stocks

Horizontal ocean transport can influence the dynamics of higher‐trophic‐level species in coastal ecosystems by altering either physical oceanographic conditions or the advection of food resources into coastal areas. In this study, we investigated whether variability in two North Pacific Current (NPC) indices was associated with changes in productivity of North American Pacific salmon stocks. Specifically, we used Bayesian hierarchical models to estimate the effects of the north‐south location of the NPC bifurcation (BI) and the NPC strength, indexed by the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), on the productivity of 163 pink, chum, and sockeye salmon stocks. We found that for salmon stocks located in Washington (WA) and British Columbia (BC), both the BI and NPGO had significant positive effects on productivity, indicating that a northward‐shifted bifurcation and a stronger NPC are associated with increased salmon productivity. For the WA and BC regions, the estimated NPGO effect was over two times larger than the BI effect for pink and chum salmon, whereas for sockeye salmon the BI effect was 2.4 times higher than the NPGO. In contrast to WA and BC stocks, we found weak effects of both horizontal ocean transport processes on the productivity of salmon stocks in Alaska. Our results indicated that horizontal transport pathways might strongly influence population dynamics of Pacific salmon in the southern part of their North American ranges, but not the northern part, suggesting that different environmental pathways may underlie changes in salmon productivity in northern and southern areas for the species under consideration.     

Simulation of juvenile sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) migrations in the Strait of Georgia, British Columbia

Previous research has documented two main migratory routes of juvenile sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) through the Strait of Georgia, British Columbia, Canada, and large interannual variability in marine survival rates of the Chilko Lake stock. Simulation models were used to explore the influence of surface currents on the migratory route of juvenile sockeye salmon (smolts) through the Strait of Georgia. We used a model of downstream migration to generate daily numbers of Chilko Lake sockeye salmon smolts entering the Strait of Georgia, based on daily counts of smolts leaving the rearing lake. A numerical hydrodynamic model (driven by surface wind, tide, and Fraser River discharge) hindcasted surface currents in the Strait of Georgia on a 2 km × 2 km grid. A smolt migration model simulated fish moving through the Strait with different compass-oriented migratory behaviours (i.e. swimming speed and directional orientation) within the time-varying surface advection field. Results showed that surface currents within the Strait of Georgia can affect the migratory route of sockeye salmon smolts in spite of their large size (8 cm). Wind is the forcing mechanism primarily responsible for determining which migratory route would be used. Under prevailing wind conditions (i.e. toward the north-west), most sockeye salmon smolts would use the eastern migratory route; however, relatively brief south-eastward wind events (lasting about 2 days) would force most smolts into the western migratory route. Given the heterogeneity of food for salmon within the Strait, we hypothesize that wind-driven variability in the annual proportion of smolts that use the western and eastern migratory routes in the Strait of Georgia affects early marine survival rates of Fraser River sockeye salmon.     

Multi‐timescale interactions between pink and chum salmon catch per unit effort in the Bering Sea

Based on generalized linear models, interspecific interactions were identified between chum and pink salmon. In addition, the effects of sea surface temperature and location on the variability of catch per unit effort (CPUE) of chum salmon from gill‐net surveys carried out between 1972 and 2010 were investigated. In the optimal model, interspecific interactions between CPUEs of chum and pink salmon on a year scale were positive for approximately half of all years in the central Bering Sea. In addition, interspecific interactions on a multi‐year scale were positive in even‐numbered years. The effects of location on the CPUE of chum salmon were significant variables in the optimal model. The CPUEs of chum salmon located near the continental shelf in the Bering Sea were higher than those of other locations. This study provides new evidence of positive interspecific interactions between the CPUEs of chum and pink salmon. The results also suggest that the standardized CPUE of chum salmon from the gill‐net surveys reflects relative chum salmon abundance in the North Pacific Ocean in the following year.     

Spatial variations in feeding and condition of juvenile pink and chum salmon off Vancouver Island, British Columbia

Spatial variations in feeding and condition of juvenile pink (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) and chum (Oncorhynchus keta) salmon, and their implications for growth, were examined on the Vancouver Island continental shelf in early summer 1992. Juvenile pink salmon off northern Vancouver Island had more material in their stomachs, were in better condition, and had higher potential growth rates (from a bioenergetics model) than pink salmon off southern Vancouver Island. These variations were consistent with spatial differences in zoo-plankton biomass, there being more plankton in the northern region. There was a significant positive relationship between condition of pinks and the amount of material in their stomachs, suggesting a positive feedback on feeding success. Juvenile chum in the north also had more material in their stomachs than chum to the south. However, condition factor was not significantly different between southern and northern regions nor was there a significant relationship between condition factor and the weight of stomach contents for chum on the southern shelf. A bioenergetics model suggests that chum in the south were food limited. Stable carbon isotope data also indicated different feeding histories for some chum in the southern region, which may have been recent migrants onto the continental shelf from near-shore areas, or possibly a nearby hatchery. Estimation of the energy required by juvenile salmon to migrate north in a continental shelf area with low zooplankton biomass and a weak northerly current (inner shelf), compared with an area with higher zooplankton biomass but a strong southerly current (outer shelf), indicated sufficient surplus energy only in the inner shelf, consistent with observations of northward migrations predominantly through this area. Spatial variations in current velocity and zooplankton biomass can affect feeding, condition, and potential growth of juvenile pink and chum salmon off Vancouver Island.     

Upstream migration of chum salmon through a restored segment of the Shibetsu River

Abstract –  A segment of the Shibetsu River was restored to reconstruct the ecological condition of the previously canalized river stretch to a more natural, meandering state. In this study, we investigated the upstream migration of chum salmon ( Oncorhynchus keta ) using radio transmitters to track the horizontal position of fish and data loggers to detect the vertical swimming depth of fish, simultaneously. The monitored salmon travelled near the bottom of the water column and along the riverbanks, and tended to hold in deep, slow current areas in the canalized river. In the restored segment, the fish swam at more shallow depths and against stronger currents. Although the three tracked fish all reached the confluent point and chose to enter the restored segment, they did not remain in the segment for long. This indicates that the restored area facilitates the upward migration of the chum salmon.     

Density‐dependent effects of eastern Kamchatka pink salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) and Japanese chum salmon (O. keta) on age‐specific growth of western Alaska chum salmon

Hatcheries release >4.5 billion juvenile Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) into the North Pacific Ocean annually, raising concerns about competition with wild salmon populations. We used retrospective scale analysis to investigate how the growth of chum salmon (O. keta) from western Alaska is affected by the abundance of chum salmon from Japanese hatcheries and wild pink salmon (O. gorbuscha) from the Russian Far East. Over nearly five decades, the growth of Kuskokwim River chum salmon was negatively correlated with the abundance of Japanese hatchery chum salmon after accounting for the effects of sex and spring/summer sea‐surface temperature in the Bering Sea. An effect of wild eastern Kamchatka pink salmon abundance on the growth of Kuskokwim River salmon was detectable but modest compared to the intraspecific competitive effect. A decrease in Japanese hatchery chum salmon releases in 2011–2013 was not associated with increased growth of Bering Sea chum salmon. However, the abundance of wild chum salmon from the Russian Far East increased during that time, possibly obscuring reduced competition with hatchery chum salmon. Our results support previous evidence that chum salmon are affected by intraspecific competition, and to a lesser extent interspecific competition, in the North Pacific, underscoring that the effects of salmon hatchery production transcend national boundaries.     

Covariation between the average lengths of mature coho (Oncorhynchus kisutch) and Chinook salmon (O. tshawytscha) and the ocean environment

We used the average fork length of age‐3 returning coho (Oncorhynchus kisutch) and age‐3 ocean‐type and age‐4 stream‐type Chinook (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) salmon along the northeast Pacific coast to assess the covariability between established oceanic environmental indices and growth. These indices included the Multivariate El Niño‐Southern Oscillation Index (MEI), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Northern Oscillation Index, and Aleutian Low Pressure Index. Washington, Oregon, and California (WOC) salmon sizes were negatively correlated with the MEI values indicating that ultimate fish size was affected negatively by El Niño‐like events. Further, we show that the growth trajectory of WOC salmon was set following the first ocean winter. Returning ocean‐type British Columbia‐Puget Sound Chinook salmon average fork length was positively correlated with the MEI values during the summer and autumn of return year, which was possibly a result of a shallower mixed layer and improved food‐web productivity of subarctic Pacific waters. Size variation of coho salmon stocks south of Alaska was synchronous and negatively correlated with warm conditions (positive PDO) and weak North Pacific high pressure during ocean residence.     

A matter of timing: the role of ocean conditions in the initiation of spawning migration by late‐run Fraser River sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka)

Year 1995 marked the start of a major shift to earlier river entry of late‐run Fraser River sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) en route to the spawning grounds. Earlier entry has typically been accompanied by considerably greater in‐river mortality. We examine this behavioral change using correlation analyses between the entry timing of the Adams River and Weaver Creek stocks and the surface marine conditions encountered by the stocks during their homing migration from the northeast Pacific several months earlier. For Adams stocks, maximum correlation is between entry timing and offshore winds, such that the weaker the wind stress in the direction of the prevailing surface currents in early July, the earlier the river entry in late summer. For Weaver stocks, maximum correlation is with salinity, such that the lower the surface salinity along the coast in August, the earlier the river entry. We hypothesize that oceanic changes lead to changes in late‐run sockeye physiology which then leads to changes in behavior. Physiological changes are postulated to arise from two types of preconditioning: Type‐1 occurs in the offshore region, whereby the weaker the prevailing currents that normally hinder eastward migration, the more endogenous energy available for maturation and the earlier the river entry. Type‐2 occurs in coastal regions, whereby the lower the salinity, the more rapid the osmoregulatory adaptation to freshwater (and possible susceptibility to water‐borne pathogens) and the earlier the entry. Results suggest that the earlier entry that began in the mid‐1990s is linked to weaker ocean currents and lower coastal salinities.     

Population structure and stock identification of chum salmon Oncorhynchus keta from Japan determined by microsatellite DNA variation

Variation at 14 microsatellite loci was surveyed in 26 chum salmon Oncorhynchus keta populations from Japan, one population from West Kamchatka and three populations from North America to determine population structure. Microsatellites were then applied to estimate stock composition of chum salmon in mixed-stock fisheries. The genetic differentiation index (F _st) over all populations and loci was 0.031, with individual locus values ranging from 0.010 to 0.081. Seven regional populations were observed in Japanese chum salmon, with late-run populations from the Pacific Coast of Honshu the most distinct. Japanese populations displayed greater genetic diversity than did those in North America. Transplantation history in some Japanese river populations influenced their present genetic characteristics. Analysis of simulated mixtures from fishery sampling suggested that accurate and precise regional estimates of stock composition should be produced when the microsatellites were used to estimate stock compositions. Stock compositions for a 2005 sample of maturing, migrating chum salmon off the north-west coast of Hokkaido near the border of the Sea of Japan and the Sea of Okhotsk indicated that this region may be a migration corridor for Hokkaido populations from the Sea of Japan coast. Microsatellites have the ability to provide fine-scale resolution of stock composition in Japanese coastal fisheries.     

Oceanic and atmospheric extremes motivate a new hypothesis for variable marine survival of Fraser River sockeye salmon

In spite of a relatively optimistic pre‐season forecast, the total return of adult sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) to the Fraser River (British Columbia, Canada) in 2009 was the lowest recorded since quantitative records began in the late 1940s. A plausible mechanism is proposed that links a sequence of extreme oceanic and climatic events to poor marine survival. It began with record‐setting snow packs in the coastal mountain range during the winter of 2007 that led to the development of unprecedented oceanographic conditions in the spring of 2007 from Queen Charlotte Strait in central British Columbia to Southeast Alaska. When combined with equally extreme atmospheric anomalies in the region in the spring of 2007, with a winter wind regime persisting through July, a coastal surface ocean with characteristics that are known to be associated with lower marine survival was established. Most of the sockeye salmon that were expected to return to the Fraser River as adults in 2009 passed through this atypical ocean as juveniles on their migration to the open ocean in 2007. A trophic gauntlet hypothesis is proposed as a new paradigm to describe the oceanic environment faced by sockeye salmon after they emigrate northward from the Strait of Georgia. The hypothesis identifies a new type of high nutrient low chlorophyll region that can explain how oceanographic extremes at critical locations along the migration route beyond the Strait of Georgia can reduce marine survival in some years.     

Mechanism of body cavity temperature regulation of chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta) during homing migration in the North Pacific Ocean

Vertical movement patterns of five chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta) during homing migration were examined using archival tags. The standard deviation of the depth and ambient and body cavity temperatures during daytime were larger than those during night‐time. Vertical movements through the thermocline with a periodicity of less than 1 h were observed during daytime in addition to the diel vertical movement patterns in the open ocean. During these periods of frequent short‐term vertical movements, the difference between the body cavity temperature and ambient temperature was large while the variance of the body cavity temperature was less than that of the ambient temperature. From the results of a random simulation, the variation of the body cavity temperature was shown to decrease due to these periodic high frequency movements in comparison with random vertical movements. The whole‐body heat‐transfer coefficient k (s^?1), which was estimated by a heat budget model, was 1.48 × 10^?3. The k of chum salmon was larger than that of bigeye tuna (Thunnus obesus) by about one order of magnitude for the cooling of the body. The k of chum salmon did not change like tuna, which are physiologically adapted to conserve body cavity temperature. This indicates that the regulation of body cavity temperature by chum salmon is dependent on the vertical movements only. The maintenance of the body cavity temperature is concluded to be advantageous for their maturation and growth from the relationship between energy input and output during their homing migration.     

Changes in plasma somatolactin levels during spawning migration of chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta)

Plasma somatolactin (SL) concentrations were examined in chum salmon in relation to gonadal maturation; immature salmon in the Bering Sea at various stages of maturation, and mature salmon during upstream migration caught at the ocean, bay and river. Plasma SL concentrations as well as plasma prolactin (PRL) and growth hormone (GH) levels in the immature fish caught in the Bering Sea were maintained essentially at similar levels. Plasma SL in mature salmon increased significantly from the fish in the ocean to the fish in the river in both sexes. Although all the fish had fully developed gonads, females completed ovulation while still in the bay, whereas final spermeation in males was achieved after entry into the river. Thus, no clear correlation was seen between plasma SL levels and final gonadal maturation. On the other hand, plasma PRL concentrations in both male and female fish were higher in the fish in the river than those in the ocean and bay, and plasma GH levels were higher in both sexes in the fish in the bay and river than those in the ocean. Plasma levels of triglycerides, glucose, free fatty acids and ionized sodium and calcium were also examined. Significant-negative correlations were seen between plasma SL and plasma ionized calcium in mature male salmon, and between plasma SL and plasma triglycerides in mature female salmon. Although our findings do not rule out the possibility of the involvement of SL in final maturation, the results indicate that SL seems to be involved at least in energy and/or calcium metabolism during the spawning migration.     

A model‐based meso‐zooplankton production index and its relation to the ocean survival of juvenile coho (Oncorhynchus kisutch)

The ocean survival of coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) off the Pacific Northwest coast has been related to oceanographic conditions regulating lower trophic level production during their first year at sea. Coastal upwelling is recognized as the primary driver of seasonal plankton production but as a single index upwelling intensity has been an inconsistent predictor of coho salmon survival. Our goal was to develop a model of upwelling‐driven meso‐zooplankton production for the Oregon shelf ecosystem that was more immediately linked to the feeding conditions experienced by juvenile salmon than a purely physical index. The model consisted of a medium‐complexity plankton model linked to a simple one‐dimensional, cross‐shelf upwelling model. The plankton model described the dynamics of nitrate, ammonium, small and large phytoplankton, meso‐zooplankton (copepods), and detritus. The model was run from 1996 to 2007 and evaluated on an interannual scale against time‐series observations of copepod biomass. The model’s ability to capture observed interannual variability improved substantially when the copepod community size distribution was taken into account each season. The meso‐zooplankton production index was significantly correlated with the ocean survival of hatchery coho salmon from the Oregon production area, although the coastal upwelling index that drove the model was not itself correlated with survival. Meso‐zooplankton production within the summer quarter (July–September) was more strongly correlated with coho survival than was meso‐zooplankton production in the spring quarter (April–June).     

Influence of ocean and freshwater conditions on Columbia River sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka adult return rates

In recent years, returns of adult sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka to the Columbia River Basin have reached numbers not observed since the 1950s. To understand factors related to these increased returns, we first looked for changes in freshwater production and survival of juvenile migrants. We then evaluated productivity changes by estimating smolt‐to‐adult return rates (SAR) for juvenile migration years 1985–2010. We found SAR varied between 0.2 and 23.5%, with the highest values coinciding with recent large adult returns. However, the largest adult return, in 2012, resulted not from increased survival, but from increased smolt production. We evaluated 19 different variables that could influence SARs, representing different facets of freshwater and ocean conditions. We used model selection criteria based on small‐sample corrected AIC to evaluate the relative performance of all two‐ and three‐variable models. The model with April upwelling, Pacific Northwest Index (PNI) in the migration year, and PNI in the year before migration had 10 times the AIC_c weight as the second‐best‐supported model, and R² = 0.82. The variables of April ocean upwelling and PNI in the migration year had high weights of 0.996 and 0.927, respectively, indicating they were by far the best of the candidate variables to explain variations in SAR. While our analyses were primarily correlative and limited by the type and amount of data currently available, changes in ocean conditions in the northern California Current system, as captured by April upwelling and PNI, appeared to play a large role in the variability of SAR.     

The vertical distribution of juvenile salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) and associated fishes in the Columbia River plume

Simultaneous trawling at surface and at depth at one location off the Columbia River, Oregon, in June 2000 identified the depth distribution of juvenile salmonids and associated fishes. Juvenile salmon off the Columbia River were distributed primarily near the surface, within the upper 12 m. Highest densities of subyearling chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) off the Columbia River were associated with high surface currents and decreasing tidal levels, with time of day possibly a co‐factor. Densities of yearling chinook salmon increased with higher turbidity. Pacific herring (Clupea pallasi) was the most abundant and commonly caught forage fish, with density increasing at night, probably related to diel vertical migration. Catches of juvenile salmonids were not associated with catches of forage fishes. Daytime surface trawling appears to be an appropriate method for assessing the distribution and abundance of juvenile salmonids in marine habitats.     

Early ocean distribution of juvenile Chinook salmon in an upwelling ecosystem

Extreme variability in abundance of California salmon populations is often ascribed to ocean conditions, yet relatively little is known about their marine life history. To investigate which ocean conditions influence their distribution and abundance, we surveyed juvenile Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) within the California Current (central California [37°30′N) to Newport, Oregon (44°00′N]) for a 2‐week period over three summers (2010–2012). At each station, we measured chlorophyll‐a as an indicator of primary productivity, acoustic‐based metrics of zooplankton density as an indicator of potential prey availability and physical characteristics such as bottom depth, temperature and salinity. We also measured fork lengths and collected genetic samples from each salmon that was caught. Genetic stock identification revealed that the majority of juvenile salmon were from the Central Valley and the Klamath Basin (91–98%). We constructed generalized logistic‐linear negative binomial hurdle models and chose the best model(s) using Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) to determine which covariates influenced the salmon presence and, at locations where salmon were present, determined the variables that influenced their abundance. The probability of salmon presence was highest in shallower waters with a high chlorophyll‐a concentration and close to an individual's natal river. Catch abundance was primarily influenced by year, mean fork length and proximity to natal rivers. At the scale of sampling stations, presence and abundance were not related to acoustic indices of zooplankton density. In the weeks to months after ocean entry, California's juvenile Chinook salmon population appears to be primarily constrained to coastal waters near natal river outlets.     

Body size trends along vertical and thermal gradients of chum salmon in the Bering Sea during summer

Relationships between the vertical distribution and thermal habitat, and body size of chum salmon Oncorhynchus keta were studied in the Bering Sea in summer using trawl surveys at various depths. Chum salmon abundance decreased with increasing depth, but the patterns of decrease differed between size groups. The abundance of small salmon fell rapidly with depth, whereas that of large salmon decreased gradually to 40 m depth, and abruptly below that. The average fork length of chum salmon collected from each trawl correlated positively with trawl net depth and negatively with water temperature. Since the optimal temperature for growth decreases with body size in this species, the observed body size‐related vertical habitat use by chum salmon may indicate size‐dependent thermal preferences.     

Interannual variability in the feeding and condition of subyearling Chinook salmon off Oregon and Washington in relation to fluctuating ocean conditions

Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) is one of several economically‐important species of salmon found in the Northeast Pacific Ocean. The first months at sea are believed to be the most critical for salmon survival, with the highest rate of mortality occurring during this period. In the present study, we examined interannual diet composition and body condition trends for late‐summer subyearling Chinook salmon caught off Oregon and Washington from 1998 to 2012. Interannual variability was observed in juvenile salmon diet composition by weight of prey consumed. Juvenile subyearling Chinook salmon were mainly piscivorous, with northern anchovy (Engraulis mordax) being especially important, making up half the diet by weight in some years. Annual diets clustered into two groups, primarily defined by their proportion of invertebrate prey (14% versus 39% on average). Diet composition was found to influence adult returns, with salmon from high‐invertebrate years returning in significantly larger numbers 2–3 yrs later. However, years that had high adult returns had overall lower stomach fullness and poorer body condition as juveniles, a counterintuitive result potentially driven by the enhanced survival of less fit individuals in better ocean conditions (top‐down effect). Ocean conditions in years with a higher percentage of invertebrates in salmon diets were significantly cooler from May to August, and bottom‐up processes may have led to a fall plankton community with a larger proportion of invertebrates. Our results suggest that the plankton community assemblage during this first fall may be critical in predicting adult returns of Chinook salmon in the Pacific Northwest.