基于选择模型的农村劳动力非农就业影响因素分析——以陕西武功县为例

为了研究农村劳动力的非农就业问题对提高农民收入,促进农民充分就业,推动二元经济结构转型有着重要意义。基于2011年8月陕西省武功县83个农户的调查数据,建立Probit为代表的选择模型,研究教育程度、性别、年龄、受培训状况、婚姻状态、村干部作用以及人均土地面积对非农就业决策的影响。研究结果表明:婚姻状况,受培训状况和家庭人均土地面积因素不显著,而性别、年龄、接受教育年限和村干部作用因素显著,基于分析结果提出应大力发展农村教育事业,加强对农村劳动力的培训力度;完善农村社会保障体系,加快小城镇建设步伐,发展高效、低耗、环保的乡镇企业,培育农村劳动力就业新的增长点。     

城市外来农村已婚女性劳动力就业的制约因素分析——基于河北省的实证分析

以城市外来农村已婚女性劳动力为研究对象,构建二元Probit回归模型,实证分析城市外来农村已婚女性劳动力就业的制约因素。研究表明:技能是制约城市外来农村劳动力就业的关键因素,且相对于城市外来农村男性劳动力,城市外来农村已婚女性劳动力就业受技能因素的影响更大。因此要改善农村已婚女性劳动力在城市就业的状态,必须要加大职业技能培训,同时尽快建立城市外来农村劳动力非正规就业劳动组织,对促进农村劳动力转移和推进城市化进程具有重要意义。     

加快农村劳动力转移的对策研究

加快农村劳动力转移是建设社会主义新农村的主要内容。通过实证研究湖北农村劳动力转移就业的现状、特点、问题、对策。结果表明,实施阳光工程加快了农村劳动力转移就业速度、效益增高、分布区域集中、特色培训模式形成、特色劳务品牌效应明显。针对农村劳动力素质低、受教育程度低、就业技能缺乏、信息不畅、职业技术教育薄弱、适宜岗位选择面太窄等突出问题,提出了加快发展职业技术教育、提高阳光工程质量、开辟就业途径,重点开发小城镇、中小企业、乡村旅游业、服务业、园艺业、特种养殖业、农产品加工业,促进农村城镇化、农村工业化、农业产业化,发展农村经济,提供适宜农村劳动力转移就业的更多岗位,是当前加快农村劳动力转移就业的根本对策。     

中国农民培训需求状况调查分析

以理论与实证研究相结合,运用定性与定量分析的研究方法,对中国农民培训需求状况进行调查分析,发现当前中国农民培训需求在内容、方式、费用等方面亟待改革,农民受教育程度低、政府培训宣传工作不到位、农民培训组织缺位,农民很多培训需求得不到满足。针对当前中国农民培训需求存在的问题,提出建立多元化资金投入机制、注重培训内容和方式的实效性等农民培训对策,旨在找到解决中国农民培训的有效途径。     

农民科技培训的主要影响因素分析

为了解决社会主义新农村建设中存在的农民培训问题,通过对农民科技培训影响因素的理论研究和中国农民科技培训的现状的分析,提出了科学技术、供需关系、制度因素、资金投入是影响农民科技培训的主要因素,并运用实证分析方法对这几种影响因素进行了深入研究。通过剖析中国农村科技培训的供需关系、农村教育投入、现行制度因素,结合当前中国农民科技培训的现实状况,揭示了影响农民培训问题的深层次原因。以此来为新农村建设中的教育问题和农民培训问题提供研究平台。     

山西省农民职业化意愿影响因素及对策建议

为推广农民职业化,加快推进中国特色农业现代化,通过实证调研的方法,开展山西省农民职业化意愿及其影响因素的研究。采用问卷调查法,有效调查了山西省3市3县15个乡镇86户农户,利用SPSS 17.0软件对调查农户数据进行Logistic回归分析,研究农户职业化意愿及其相关影响因素。结果表明：调查样本农户户主有农民职业化意愿的占76%。农户对农业补贴政策的满意度、拥有的耕地面积、家庭纯收入、农业收入占比和农户是否兼业化等变量因素与农户的职业化意愿有显著影响,而农户的年龄、性别、受教育程度、是否村干部、是否受过技能培训、土地流转是否顺畅以及家庭劳动力人数等变量对农户是否有职业化意愿的影响不显著。据此提出加大政策扶持力度、畅通土地流转、拓宽增收渠道、创新职业农民培训模式等推进农民职业化的建议,以提高农户职业化的意愿。     

新疆多项就业“红利”助力脱贫攻坚

正近年来,新疆不断完善就业机制,通过集中实施就业扶贫、技能培训等,促进城乡富余劳动力和贫困劳动力实现稳定就业。在扩大政策覆盖面上,新疆推行终身职业技能培训制度和订单、定岗、定向培训,开展就业技能培训、岗位技能提升培训,实现南疆四地州22个深度贫困县建档立卡贫困家庭劳动力有组织转移就业基础劳动素质培训全覆盖,确保贫困家庭每户至少有一名劳动力学习掌握一门就业技能,以适应市场需求。     

城镇化进程中农民工创业意愿及其影响因素研究——基于甘肃省农民工调查数据的实证分析

为了研究农民工创业意愿的相关影响因素,对甘肃省289位农民工进行了调查,并运用二元Logistic模型实证分析了影响农民工创业意愿的因素。结果表明：从影响因素来看,年龄小、已婚、受教育程度越高、有创业经历、能得到家人支持且社交广泛的农民工创业意愿越强烈,而务工月收入、家庭人均纯收入越高、偏好冒险的农民工不倾向于创业。同时调查发现创业资金匮乏、没有一技之长、文化程度不高是农民工创业的最大障碍,担心创业失败是农民工创业的心理屏障。因此政府要加大创业资金扶持及政策宣传,加强农民工职业技能培训和创业培训,确保农民工能多渠道获取创业信息,引导农民工高效创业。     

农户种植张杂谷影响因素实证分析

依据对张杂谷种植农户的调查资料,运用两项logistic模型,对采用张杂谷技术意愿影响因素作了实证研究。结果表明：文化程度、张杂谷增长效果、产量、劳动力占家庭人口数、用工数对农户是否继续采用张杂谷有显著性正向影响,年龄和家庭主要收入来源对农户是否继续采用张杂谷有显著性负向影响。张杂谷应该重点向文化程度水平高,以种植业为主要收入,劳动力比较多的家庭倾斜。提出对种植张杂谷进行补贴,加大张杂谷科研力度,对农民进行种植张杂谷培训等建议。     

保定市农村已婚女性劳动力转移就业影响因素分析

相对于农村男性劳动力,农村已婚女性劳动力转移率低且非农就业形态较差。本文以保定市农村已婚女性为研究对象,科学选择调研样本,应用probit模型分析农村已婚女性劳动力转移就业的影响因素,以及各因素的影响方向和影响程度,为促进农村已婚女性劳动力转移提出政策建议。     

The Returns to Migration: The Influence of Education and Migration Type

We show the impact of migration type on real wages over time. We create a migration and earnings history from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth over the period 1979–2002. We estimate the effects of primary, onward, and two types of return migration on real wages using a panel data model with individual, location, and time fixed effects. Panel data are well suited for the study of the returns to U.S. internal migration because the influence of migration on wages has been found to occur years after the event. We differentiate return migration into two types: return to a location with ties that form a geographical anchor (“home”) and return to a prior place of work. We find that real wage growth varies by migration type. Education attainment is a significant factor in real wage growth. Our results show that onward migration is an important channel by which the monetary rewards to a college education are manifested.     

Moonlighting in a High Growth Economy: Evidence from U.S. State‐Level Data

Despite the prevalence of multiple jobholding, there is relatively little research into its causes. Existing research has tested the predictions of standard labor models with micro data. Yet, there has been virtually no research into the relationship between moonlighting and structural differences in regional labor markets such as wages and employment growth. In this manner, this study examines the large differences in multiple jobholding rates across U.S. states. The findings indicate that multiple jobholding acts as a short‐term shock absorber to cyclical changes. However, in the long‐term, these effects dissipate, indicating that moonlighting plays a similar role as do changes in unemployment and labor‐force participation to regional labor market shocks. Conversely, multiple jobholding rates are inversely related to average weekly earnings. Thus, job growth accompanied by real wage (and productivity) growth may result in a decline in multiple jobholding, further exacerbating potential labor shortages. Other key factors found to influence multiple jobholding include occupational structure and education.     

The Response of Anther Culture in a Genetically Wide Material of Winter Wheat (Triticum aestivum L.)

In a screening experiment with 215 different winter cultivars of Triticum aestivum L. for response in anther culture, pollen embryos or callus were obtained from 200 different cultivars and green plants from 93 different cultivars. On average, from the whole material, 1.3 green plants were obtained per 100 anthers cultured. Variance components estimated from replicates with selected parts of the plant material indicated that for the formation of pollen embryos from anthers, interactions between genotypes and replications were dominating, accounting for 45 to 50 per cent of the variation. Main effects from genotypes were less prominent, accounting for 25 to 30 per cent of the variation, and the replications showed relatively little effect, accounting, for about 4 to 12 per cent of total variation. Regeneration of plants from pollen embryos or callus was not significantly influenced by either genotype or replicates. The frequencies of plants regenerated being green, however, were influenced from both genotype and environments contributing 42.5 and 34.9 per cent of the total variation respectively, while only minor interactions between genotype and environments were indicated for this character.     

Does Public Lands Policy Affect Local Wage Growth?

The effects on wage growth of management practices applied on public lands in the Northern Forest region of the United States are quantified. A central objective is to determine if the management of public lands for preservationist uses results in lower average wages. This is a frequent claim made by critics of land preservation who argue that preservationist management, by prohibiting resource extraction, causes the composition of employment to shift from high‐wage jobs in resource‐based manufacturing to low‐wage jobs in the service sector. A model of simultaneous employment and net migration growth is estimated with data on non‐metropolitan counties over the period 1990 to 1999 and applied in a recursive relationship to wage growth. In earlier studies, models of this type have typically been specified in levels. Time‐series evidence that supports a preference for growth rates is provided as the form for such models. Exogenous variables in this model include the 1990 shares of the county land base that are publicly owned and managed for preservationist (non‐extractive) uses and multiple (including extractive) uses. It was found that wage growth rates are not significantly affected by the shares of land under either management regime. As well, recent declines in national forest timber sales are found to have no effect on wage growth.     

“80后”农民工教育培训成本补偿机制研究

为了解决“80后”农民工教育培训经费不足的困境,并研究其教育培训成本补偿不足的问题。结合“80后”农民工教育收益率,着重分析其教育培训成本分担主体构成以及成本补偿的原则,从四方面构建“80后”农民工教育培训成本补偿机制,为相关部门的农民工教育培训投资决策提供一定参考价值。     

西部农村人力资源开发刍议

我国西部农村面临西部大开发的战略机遇,开发农村人力资源刻不容缓。但目前农村人力资源质量不高,流动性差,而中国将面临人口红利的枯竭,这都给我国的城乡统筹及西部开发提出挑战。本文在分析西部人力资源开发必要性的基础上,提出了加大政府支持力度和管理创新,积极推进农村教育培训,建立农村人力资源市场体系等举措,以实现西部农村人力资源的可持续发展。     

Regional Economic Activity and Petroleum Industry Incentive Policies: Utah's Uintah Basin

ABSTRACT Proponents of petroleum industry subsidies often assert that such policies will have positive economic implications for rural communities. This paper examines the economic impacts of such a policy in Utah. Specifically, this paper quantifies the direct and indirect economic and fiscal impacts of a tax credit granted for oil and gas well workovers in Utah's Uintah Basin. The analysis is made possible by an input-output model constructed specifically for Utah's oil producing economy. The tax credit policy was found to generate a net fiscal loss for the state. However, it does generate employment in the Uintah Basin. The total per job cost to the state of generating an average of one job per year for 5 years through the tax credit policy is $24,056 (1991 dollars). However, if the public expenditure impacts are taken into account, then the cost per job could be as high as $48,423 (1991 dollars). Whether there are other ways to generate the same employment gains at a lower cost was lost in the political debate surrounding this petroleum industry tax credit.     

中国苹果授粉研究现状

苹果是中国最重要的栽培果树,然而目前其单产和优果率较低、果实品质较差,严重制约了中国苹果在国际市场上的竞争力。尽管人工授粉可以提高产量,但目前人工授粉成本不断增加;传粉昆虫对大幅提高苹果产量,尤其增加优质果率方面有着不可替代的作用,但目前自然界传粉昆虫数量严重不足,无法满足苹果产业规模化发展的需求。大力推广蜜蜂、壁蜂授粉技术,深入研究切叶蜂、土中筑巢蜂等苹果野生传粉昆虫的人工驯养技术是确保苹果产业可持续发展的重要途径;同时,科学配置授粉树也是提高苹果坐果率、优质果率、改善苹果品质的关键。本研究综述了苹果花部特征、传粉方式、传粉昆虫种类以及影响苹果授粉效果的因素等,并对今后开展苹果授粉的研究提出了几点建议,以期为提高中国苹果产量和品质提供一些思路。     

Factor for Estimating Nitrogen Contribution of Cowpea as a Cover Crop

The nitrogen contribution of cowpea [ Vigna unguiculata (L.) Walp.] above-ground biomass was estimated using the per cent nitrogen and per cent dry matter of 24 cowpea entries. Cowpea growth stage was assigned a maturity index, and an 'N factor' was calculated. Results for this species-specific 'N factor' ranged from 12.5 at the vegetative stage to 13.5 at the reproductive stage. Using the 'rule of 16' as developed for sampling the fresh biomass of other legume cover crops, the amount of nitrogen contributed by cowpeas can be estimated by using an average 'N factor' of 13.