Unemployment Duration in Non‐Metropolitan Labor Markets

Non‐metropolitan areas of the U.S have experienced significant structural economic changes in recent decades. These changes have raised concerns that some non‐metropolitan workers may face significant costs to employment displacements associated with economic adjustments. This paper explores the roles that linkages to metropolitan labor markets, area labor market conditions, and individual attributes play in determining the rates of exit from unemployment to employment among non‐metropolitan area residents. Adjacency to a metropolitan area is found to significantly increase transition rates from unemployment to employment among displaced non‐metropolitan workers, but local economic conditions are found to have relatively weak or insignificant effects on transition rates. Also, lack of post‐high school education and minority status both significantly reduce rates of exit from unemployment in non‐metropolitan areas following employmentdisplacement.     

Destination Choice of the Newly Arrived Immigrants to the U.S. from 2000 to 2005–2007: A Multivariate Explanation for Immigrants from Top Source Countries

Using the PUMS files of the 2000 U.S. Census and 2005–2007 merged ACS data, we study the metropolitan destination choices made by newly arrived immigrants from seven top source countries between 2000 and 2007. Using a multinomial logit model, we find that the dispersion of new immigrant groups varies by origin, although all groups were subject to 1) the attraction of co‐ethnic communities, and 2) the positive effects of labor market conditions in the destination (especially the employment growth rate). However, co‐ethnic concentration is much more important than labor market conditions in the destination choice decision, particularly for the poorly educated. Conversely, there is a strong negative effect of co‐ethnic concentration on highly educated new immigrants, revealing a dispersed geographical pattern of these highly educated immigrants. We also find the importance of employment share growth rate for highly educated immigrants which suggests that they are more sensitive to the upward employment structure at the destination than a specific job growth rate, and they may not be attracted by a metropolitan area with a low‐quality employment structure, despite whether there was an increase in high‐level jobs.     

The Shifting Destinations of Metropolitan Migrants in the U.S., 2005–2011

Recent estimates that central cities are growing faster than their suburbs in the U.S. have captured the attention of both academics and the popular media. Many commentators have used these numbers to claim that internal migration trends in the U.S. have reached a turning point, in which migrants increasingly prefer urban residences to suburban locales. However, these assertions often rely on problematic definitions of city and suburb, and pay too little attention to demographic variations among migrants. This paper examines whether recent internal migrants in the U.S. are choosing closer‐in destinations, drawing from microdata samples from the American Community Survey since 2005. During this period, there is an overall trend of migrants to the largest metropolitan areas in the U.S. choosing to migrate closer to the metropolitan core. However, this trend varies significantly among major demographic groups; whereas younger, single, educated, and white‐collar migrants show evidence of a return to the core, migrants who are blue‐collar, less‐educated, older, and with families remain more suburban. In turn, this analysis suggests that overall trends of “back to the city” migration are producing considerable divergence in the metropolitan destinations of different demographic groups.     

Trade,Wage Inequalities and Disparities between Countries: The Technology Connection

ABSTRACT This paper takes seriously the idea that international trade has played an important role in explaining both some convergence between developed economies as well as rising inequalities at the personal level. Previous studies used traditional trade theory as a reference framework. The empirical consensus is now that differences in factor endowment explain at best a small fraction of rising wage inequalities. This argument, by contrast, builds on labor specialization and increasing returns. Deeper economic integration allows trade in differentiated intermediate goods and primary tasks, thus transforming local increasing returns into global increasing returns. This pushes towards geographical equalization. At the same time, deeper integration also increases the size of the pool of available skilled workers. This may lead them to a‘technological secession’as it makes more skill-demanding technologies more profitable. Technological secession in turn fosters wage inequalities at the personal level.     

Race,Place, and the Persisting Income Divide in the U.S. Southeast, 2000–2014

Despite economic growth since the recession, the gap between the richest and the poorest segments of the population remains one of the most pressing concerns of contemporary America. This paper uses IR‐95/20, IR‐80/20, and IR‐65/35 ratios to measure the income divides between the richest and the poorest segments in the mid‐to‐large‐sized metropolises of the U.S. Southeast, their variation across ethnicities, and their association with metropolitan level attributes such as diversity, segregation, socio‐economic, and other built‐environment, and labor characteristics. The income divide ratios serve as the dependent variables whereas principal components along with state‐dummy variables serve as the explanatory variables in regressions analyses. The metropolises that are large, diverse, and better educated are the most income‐divided whereas those with lower educated people are less divided. Metropolises with larger shares of their labor engaged in primary sectors of economy have higher income divides; this observation also holds true for African Americans and Hispanics. Metropolises that gained in intermixing during 2000–2014 are associated with a lower income divide and vice versa.     

Changes in the Appalachian Wage Gap, 1970 to 2000

ABSTRACT Since at least 1960, Appalachia has had lower wages, employment rates, and educational attainment than the rest of the country. Using a sample from the Integrated Public Use Microdata Series Census project, the author identifies factors affecting the wage gap between 1970 and 2000. The author finds that increases in educational attainment in Appalachia are counterbalanced by increasing returns to observable and unobservable skill, the decline of the manufacturing industry, and rising wage dispersion, leaving the wage gap for full‐time workers in 2000 at essentially the same levels as 1970.     

Recent intra-metropolitan patterns of spatial mismatch: Implications for black suburbanization and the changing geography of mismatch

Kain's spatial mismatch hypothesis (SMH) (1968) highlights the segregation of Black population in the inner city as well as the decentralization of jobs, both of which played a role in the poor labor market outcomes for Black residents in the inner city. Demographic and economic changes in U.S. metropolitan areas since the late 20th century have transformed the urban spatial structure. This paper aims to revisit the SMH and investigate whether the spatial pattern of mismatch has changed as a result of geographic shifts in the Black population. This paper specifically examines how the suburbanization of the Black population has affected the geographic patterns of mismatch and whether the mismatch is disappearing in the major U.S. metropolitan areas. Using spatial measures of mismatch, this paper presents intra-metropolitan spatial mismatch patterns that capture the clustering of jobs and the Black population based on their relative distributions, showing that the overall level of spatial mismatch declined in major U.S. metropolitan areas between 2000 and 2015. However, geographical evidence reveals that the spatial mismatch has shifted to the outer suburbs, replicating city-suburb spatial inequality, implying that although mismatch may have declined in the inner city due to Black suburbanization, spatial mismatch continue to persist in U.S. metropolitan areas in Black suburbs. The findings also demonstrate that although spatial mismatch generally declined in the inner city, it increased in cities with high inner city polarization, particularly New York, Chicago, San Francisco, and Seattle.     

Globalization and Restructuring during Downturns: A Case Study of California

Restructuring through foreign outsourcing, whereby greater imports of manufactured inputs substitute for blue‐collar labor, is shown to intensify when industries experience declines in sales. The magnitude of this effect was four to seven times greater in California industries experiencing a 20 percent sales decline from 1987‐1992, relative to those industries whose sales dropped by 5 percent. Foreign outsourcing explains a quarter to two‐fifths of the rise in payroll inequality between blue and white collar workers in California and perhaps five to ten percent of the rise in the remainder of the U.S. Past work linked growing inequality with foreign outsourcing and restructuring with economic downturns. Here, foreign outsourcing is used as an example of a particular efficiency augmenting measure, which occurs predominantly, though not exclusively, in troubled industries.     

Income Divergence between Mexican States in the 1990s: The Role of Skill Premium

ABSTRACT During the period 1940–1985 the variance of average incomes across Mexican states fell by 60 percent. Beginning in 1985, however, and coinciding with the adoption of trade liberalization policies and other market‐oriented reforms, state incomes began to diverge. Using microdata from the 1990 and 2000 Mexican Population Censuses, this study decomposes the recent divergence into components due to economy‐wide changes in skill prices and components due to state‐specific changes in the composition of workers. The study finds that the rise in the education premium hindered the progress of poor states and raised the variance of average state wages and labor earnings. However, educational attainment mostly compensated for this income‐widening effect. State‐level regressions reveal that the initial level of education, size of the agricultural sector, and distance from the U.S. border were important factors, while public infrastructure was not. While the border states clearly benefited from increased trade and opening of the economy, I find no evidence that skill demand or the immigration of highly educated workers particularly favored these states.     

Real Wages and Unemployment in Local Labor Markets: Pennsylvania MSAs, 1975-86

This paper specifies an unemployment rate model with relatively long lags on the manufacturing real wage and the level of real GNP as the independent variables. Estimates of the model for 12 MSAs in Pennsylvania over the period from 1975:2 to 1986:4 generally indicate a fairly strong positive unemployment response to lagged real wages. This is consistent with theoretical models of the labor market that hypothesize strong real wage effects during periods of aggregate supply shocks. The unique characteristics of the time period under study and the disaggregation to local labor markets might account for the fact that, in contrast to many previous empirical studies, we are able to uncover evidence of a positive real wage-unemployment relationship in U.S. time series data.     

Regulating informality: Worker centers and collective action in day-labor markets

Day-labor markets are characterized by chronic instability, low pay, and weak institutional protections against violations of labor standards. In the U.S., worker centers address these conditions through the operation of hiring halls that dispatch workers, set minimum wages, and redress wage theft. Surveys conducted in Seattle in 2012 and 2015 were used to evaluate wage rates, employment rates, and wage theft variables for workers at a worker center and those seeking employment at four informal hiring sites. Worker center members were found to have significantly higher wages, higher employment rates, and lower rates of wage theft than day laborers who search for employment in public spaces.     

Internal Migration in Mexico: Consolidation of Urban–Urban Mobility, 2000–2015

Internal migration has been recognized as the major influence in terms of population redistribution across urban systems, but it is not a homogeneous phenomenon. Within the context of internal rural‐urban migration decline and the negative changes in migratory balances in the metropolitan area of Mexico City, the core of enquiry in this paper is the approach to growth and consolidation of an internal urban–urban migration system in the early twenty‐first century (2000–2015). This process has taken place through two main networks, among metropolitan areas not corresponding to the principal city and among intermediate cities. Internal migration is a complex process that involves both individual and spatial characteristics and which leads to spatially uneven development in the long term. Data from three censuses of the population of Mexico (2000, 2010, and 2015) show a transition to a more urban–urban migration pattern, with skilled migrants tending to have metropolitan and urban destinations, whereas less‐skilled migrants prefer rural and small urban destinations.     

U.S. Farm Wages and Labor Market Efficiency

This study examines convergence in real wages for hired farm labor in the U.S. agricultural sector over the period 1978‐92,using the ‘average farm’ in each county as an observation. Convergence is investigated at the aggregate (or the entire U.S. level)and regional levels. Evidence supports convergence with a slower rate at the aggregate level than that at the regional level. Suggested by the evidence is the possibility that absolute benefits of wage equalization across states are ‘contagious’—that one state's successful investment raises productivity and factor payments in neighboring states and that agricultural labor markets are efficient and integrated all over the country.     

Does a Rising Tide Lift All Metropolitan Boats? Assessing Poverty Dynamics by Metropolitan Size and County Type

ABSTRACT This paper examines the relationship between U.S. metropolitan county employment growth and poverty. Differential job growth–poverty linkages are found across metropolitan size and type of county. Own‐county employment growth significantly reduces central‐county poverty in large metropolitan areas relative to suburban county poverty. Compared with larger metropolitan areas, broader metropolitan‐wide job growth has more poverty reducing benefits in medium and smaller metropolitan areas, suggesting fewer metropolitan‐wide job‐accessibility constraints. The results suggest that targeted place‐based efforts to spur job growth may help reduce poverty.     

Understanding the Non‐Metropolitan—Metropolitan Digital Divide

Abstract A consistent gap exists between home Internet use in metropolitan areas and in non‐metropolitan areas in the U.S. This digital divide may stem from technology differences in home Internet connectivity. Alternatively, differences in education, income, and other household attributes may explain differences in metropolitan and non‐metropolitan area home Internet access. Effective programs to reduce the metropolitan–non‐metropolitan digital divide must be based on an understanding of the relative roles that technology and household characteristics play in determining differential Internet usage. The household Internet adoption decision is modeled using a logit estimation approach with data from the 2001 U.S. Current Population Survey Internet and Computer Use Supplement. A decomposition of separate metropolitan and non‐metropolitan area estimates shows that differences in household attributes, particularly education and income, account for 63 percent of the current metropolitan–non‐metropolitan digital divide. The result raises significant doubts that policies which focus solely on infrastructure and technology access will mitigate the current metropolitan–non‐metropolitan digital divide.     

Evolution of the Geography of Innovation: Evidence from Patent Data

This paper examines the evolution of patent activities across U.S. states from 1963 to 1997. Several patterns are uncovered. First, there is invention catch‐up by some lagging states. Second, the evidence is consistent with knowledge diffusion. Third, leading states unable to reinvent themselves lose their leads. Fourth, catch‐up can be across a diverse field of activities or focused on select activities. State patent growth is positively correlated to industry R&D and a variable capturing labor skill and infrastructure quality. These provide rationale for state policy makers to increase support to programs that enhance labor skill (e.g., education) and infrastructure quality.     

Quality of Life and the Migration of the College‐Educated: A Life‐Course Approach

ABSTRACT This paper examines how the college‐educated population—segmented into selective demographic groups, from young adults to the elderly—differentially values quality‐of‐life (QOL) indicators of metropolitan areas in the United States. Using data from the 2000 Census and the 1997 Places Rated Almanac, out‐migration patterns are shown to depend jointly upon stage in the life course, the spatial‐demographic setting, and QOL characteristics. An abundance of cultural and recreational amenities lowers out‐migration rates of young college‐educated. For the older college‐educated population, the revealed preferences shift toward concerns for safety and a strong preference for milder climates. The study also finds significantly lower out‐migration rates for metropolitan areas with growing human capital. In light of shifting age distributions and rising educational attainment levels, the results have important implications for the emergence of new migration patterns and the concentration of human capital.     

Skills across the Urban–Rural Hierarchy

This paper examines the vertical and horizontal dimensions of human capital across regions within the U.S., ranging from densely populated city centers to isolated and sparsely populated rural areas. To do so, we classify detailed geographic areas into categories along the entire urban–rural hierarchy. An occupation‐based cluster analysis is then used to complement the conventional measure of human capital, based on college attainment, by measuring the types of skills available in the regional workforce. We find that differences in human capital across the urban–rural hierarchy are related to both the types of work performed in urban and rural areas and that a higher share of college‐educated workers is present in urban areas regardless of the skills typically required to perform the job.     

Change in the Concentration of Employment in Computer Services: Spatial Estimation at the U.S. Metro County Level

ABSTRACT This article models the concentration of computer services activity across the U.S. with factors that incorporate spatial relationships. Specifically, we enhance the standard home‐area study with an analysis that allows conditions in neighboring counties to affect the concentration of employment in the home county. We use county‐level data for metropolitan areas between 1990 and 1997. To measure change in employment concentration, we use the change in location quotients for SIC 737, which captures employment concentration changes caused by both the number of firms and the scale of their activity relative to the national average. After controlling for local demand for computer services, our results support the importance of the presence of a qualified labor supply, interindustry linkages, proximity to a major airport, and spatial processes in explaining changes in computer services employment concentration, finding little support for the influence of cost factors. Our enhanced model reveals interjurisdictional relationships among these metro counties that could not be captured with standard estimates by state, metropolitan statistical area (MSA), or county. Using counties within MSAs, therefore, provides more general results than case studies but still allows measurement of local interactions.     

Can State Tax Policy Increase Economic Activity and Reduce Inequality?

Previous research shows that when changes in national commodity and income tax rates affect labor supply decisions differently, relative rates can be altered to increase welfare. In the U.S., 40 states impose both a sales and income tax; however, the reliance varies widely. This paper uses a computable general equilibrium model to examine tax policy changes in Colorado. The findings suggest that the revenue neutral changes to income and sales tax rates can affect both the level of economic activity and the distribution of income. When labor force participation is highly sensitive to income tax rate changes—which this paper suggests is the case—progressive changes to Colorado's tax policy changes can both reduce inequality and increase output and employment.