Shift‐Share Analysis and Changes in Japanese Manufacturing Employment

Shift‐share analysis is used to examine the role of spatial structure on changes in regional manufacturing employment, in contrast to the traditional focus of shift‐share studies on the role of industrial structure. It is argued that changes in a region's space‐economy can be understood not only in terms of the economic subdivisions of the region but also in terms of the contribution of its spatial subdivisions. The latter is illustrated by means of a case study of the contribution of different types of local area to changes in regional manufacturing employment in Japan. Each region was subdivided into four types of local area based on population density. The analysis covered the period from 1981 to 1995, a time of major transformation in Japan's space‐economy. The shift‐share model was also used to estimate the impact of local area output and productivity on changes in regional employment. In general, the results show that there was a progressive underdevelopment of the core regions, associated with falling output and productivity. The country's peripheral regions were characterized by development, associated with rising output and productivity. Atthe local scale, however, the picture is far more complex. Types of local area contributed to regional employment change in very different ways, with respect to both time, region, and output/productivity. The contribution of local spatial structure to the regional space‐economy of Japan is fundamentally fragmented and uneven.     

Spatial Structure and Taxonomy of Decomposition in Shift‐Share Analysis

ABSTRACT The goal of this paper is twofold. The first goal is to incorporate spatial structure within shift‐share analysis, to take into account interregional interaction in the decomposition analysis. Secondly, this paper develops a taxonomy of regional growth rate decompositions. A taxonomy of the spatial structure is presented; it comprises twenty alternative decomposition structures, including the original standard shift‐share analysis as well as six alternative structures outlined in the taxonomy for non‐spatial structures.     

Growth of Creative Occupations in U.S. Metropolitan Areas: A Shift‐Share Analysis

ABSTRACT This article uses a shift‐share model to investigate the growth of creative occupations in U.S. metropolitan areas during the 1990s. Empirical findings indicate that the performance of the creative economy varied widely across the U.S., and that the highest competitive growth rates of the creative workforce occurred in the Rocky Mountain, Southeast, and Southwest regions. Further analysis focused on whether high competitive workforce growth between 1990 and 2000 translated into high competitive employment growth from 1999 to 2003. The results show that many of the areas with the highest competitive growth rates of creative economy employment from 1999 to 2003 were some of the weakest regions in terms of creative workforce growth during the 1990s. This raises questions about the extent to which jobs follow people in the creative economy, and suggests that an initial strong presence in the creative economy is not a prerequisite for future growth.     

中国梨生产、贸易与国际竞争力分析

梨是世界重要水果,也是我国主要的出口果品之一。进入21世纪以来,世界和中国的梨生产、贸易和竞争力都有了新的变化。本文以FAO(联合国粮农组织)数据为基础,通过对数据不同角度的分析,对我国梨生产、贸易和国际竞争力进行了研究。结果表明,2000-2007年我国梨收获面积不断扩大,产量大幅度提高,在世界梨生产中所占的比重不断增加,但是梨单位收获面积产量仍低于世界平均水平;我国的梨出口量在世界梨贸易中所占比重持续增加,梨出口具有很强的国际竞争力,但竞争力的维持是以较低的出口价格为代价的。针对我国梨生产和贸易中存在的问题,本文讨论了改善我国梨生产和提高梨果国际竞争力的措施。     

International Trade and the Changing Demand for Skilled Workers in High‐Tech Manufacturing

ABSTRACT States and localities in the U.S. put considerable effort into attracting and maintaining high‐tech manufacturing industries to preserve manufacturing employment. However, little work has examined whether high‐tech industries respond differently than traditional manufacturing to changing trade pressures. This study investigates the impact of international trade on skilled and unskilled labor demand across manufacturing sectors. Results of this study indicate that changes in exchange rates and trade orientation have similar effects across high‐tech and traditional manufacturing sectors. In addition, findings suggest that there is a high degree of variation in the trade‐related effects on labor demand across individual high‐tech sectors, and that the direction of these effects often runs counter to the predictions of traditional trade theory.     

中国李产业发展、贸易与国际竞争力分析

自2000 年以来,世界和中国的李生产、贸易和竞争力都有了新的变化。笔者以世界粮农组织（FAO）数据和相关文献为基础,分析了李生产和发展状况以及中国李产业在国际贸易中的竞争力。结果表明：世界李的收获面积和产量持续增加,且中国李的栽培面积和产量均居世界之首,然而单产却与智利、伊朗相比存在较大的差距。世界和中国李的进口和出口呈现平稳增长态势,但是中国李进口量和进口额远大于出口量和出口额。可比净出口指数、净出口显示性比较优势指数和进出口价格比分析都表明,中国李出口竞争力相对较差。针对中国李生产和贸易中存在的问题,提出了改善中国李产业发展和提高其国际竞争力的建议。     

The Spatial Dimension of Trade‐ and FDI‐driven Productivity Growth in Chinese Provinces: A Global Cointegration Approach

This paper analyses the major determinants of long‐ and short‐run labour productivity evolution for Chinese provinces between 1978 and 2010. The role played by openness to trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) constitutes the main focus of this analysis. From a methodological perspective, our main contribution is the inclusion of spatial effects into a dynamic error correction modelling framework. The results show that, in addition to domestic factors such as investment intensity and infrastructure use, trade openness and inward FDI also exert a direct impact on labour productivity. Furthermore, the geographical environment has a strong indirect influence on productivity: The more a region is surrounded by high‐productive regions with good infrastructure and linkages to the world economy, the higher are its productivity level and growth rate. The magnitude of these impacts varies by spatial regime (coastal, interior provinces) and time period in focus. Especially in the recent past, trade and FDI activity appear to be increasingly important drivers of regional productivity evolution, both for coastal and interior regions. These findings have important policy implications: In order to fully exploit the benefits from such spillovers, coordinated industrial policies which foster regional complementarities and support the free movement of production factors across regional borders are crucial.     

2010年世界玉米市场形势分析与展望

近年来,由于气候因素玉米生产出现波动,玉米产量增长不能满足消费增长的需要,全球玉米供求日趋紧张,库存消费徘徊在联合国粮农组织确立的世界粮食安全警戒线以下。受此影响,2010年下半年国际玉米价格出现反弹,尤其近两个月呈大幅上涨态势。中国玉米连续第六年丰收,生产大国效应明显,国内价格随新玉米上市呈季节性回落,但由于国家库存下降较多,加之需求增长和成本推动等因素影响,预计回落幅度有限,国内玉米价格总体上将以稳为主,高位运行。     

Contributions to the Analysis of Genotype × Environment Interactions: Comparison of Different Parametric and Non-parametric Tests for Interactions with Emphasis on Crossover Interactions

The objective of this study was to compare five statistical procedures (analysis of variance, the Azzalini/Cox test, the Hildebrand procedure, the Kubinger approach, and the de Kroon/van der Laan technique) for the analysis of genotype × environment interactions in cross‐classified data sets from cultivar performance yield trials with rows = cultivars and columns = environments (locations and/or years). The procedures Hildebrand, Kubinger and de Kroon/van der Laan are non‐parametric methods based on ranks, while analysis of variance and the Azzalini/Cox test proceed from the original absolute yield data. These very different statistical techniques were applied to extensive data sets from German official registration trials (1985–1989) with winter oilseed rape (Brassica napus L.), faba bean (Vicia faba L.), oat (Avena sativa L.), fodder beet (Beta vulgaris L.) and sugar beet (Beta vulgaris L.). The Azzalini/Cox and de Kroon/van der Laan methods are based on the crossover concept of interaction (different rank orders) while the other methods are based on the usual concept of interaction (deviations from additivity of main effects). For an analysis of usual interactions the procedures Hildebrand, Kubinger and analysis of variance are approximately equivalent. For the crossover concept of interaction, the Azzalini/Cox approach is recommended, especially if one is particularly interested in rank changes between environments within genotypes.     

2009年国际粮价情况及2010年走势分析

<正>2009年,尽管全球经济在2008年金融危机后持续复苏,原油、金属、油脂等商品价格大幅上扬,但受制于宽裕的全球粮食供需关系,粮食市场弱势运行,粮价总体在2008年底的低位盘整,全年总体水平大幅低于2008年。2010年,国际粮食市场     

Mulching Improves Water Productivity,Yield and Quality of Fine Rice under Water‐saving Rice Production Systems

Water‐saving rice production systems are inevitable in the wake of severe water shortage in rice‐growing regions of the world. Mulches can improve water productivity, yield and quality of rice through increase in water retention. Studies were conducted for two consecutive years to assess the potential role of mulches (plastic and straw) in improving the performance of water‐saving rice production systems in comparison with no mulch used and conventionally irrigated transplanted rice. Water‐saving rice production systems in this study comprise aerobic rice and transplanted rice with intermittent irrigation. These systems saved water (18–27 %) with improved water productivity more than the conventional system. However, these systems caused a yield penalty of 22–37 %; nevertheless, these yield losses were compensated with the application of mulches under water‐saving rice production systems. Both plastic and straw mulches were helpful in improving moisture retention and water productivity (0.18–0.25 kg grain m^?3 water) relative to non‐mulch treatments (0.19–0.29 kg grain m^?3 water). Mulch application was also helpful in reducing the number of non‐productive tillers and sterile spikelets, and improving the productive tillers, kernel number and size, and kernel quality. Plastic mulch was more effective than straw mulch in improving water retention, water productivity and reducing spikelet sterility. In conclusion, the mulching improved the soil moisture retention, and thus enhanced the rice water productivity, spikelet fertility, paddy yield and quality of rice. This signifies the importance of mulching in water‐saving rice production systems.     

Evaluation of Genotype × Environment Interactions in Chinese Spring Wheat by the AMMI Model, Correlation and Path Analysis

An understanding of the characteristics of crop varieties and advanced lines could help improve their cultivation and to further enhance their potential. The objectives of this study were to estimate the genotype (G), environment (E) and genotype × environment (GE) interactions on the grain yield of Chinese spring wheat genotypes in 2000 and 2001 by the additive main effects and multiplicative interaction (AMMI) model, and to evaluate the relationships between yield and its components by correlation and path analysis. Grain yield varied from 3.9 to 5.2 t ha^?1, among which SW8188 had the highest yield performance, followed by 58769‐6 and Chuannong 16. Three interaction principal components (IPC) accounted for a total of 79.99 % and 72.96 % of the interactions with 41.05 % and 52.08 % for the corresponding degrees of freedom in 2000 and 2001, respectively. When IPC3 was significant, the stability coefficient D_i was more useful in the evaluation of the stability of each genotype. The estimates of D_i in the 2 years indicated that the D_i values varied between genotypes and years. The D_i values ranged from 1.804 to 14.665 and 2.497 to 12.481 in 2000 and 2001 respectively. The suitable locations (environments) for all genotypes were characterized. These results would be useful for improving the Chinese spring wheat cultivation and improvement.     

现代化进程中山东省农业生产效率测算与分析

为了对山东省农业生产投入产出效率进行有效评价,进而为科学推进低耗高产的可持续农业提供实践性参考,运用DEA（数据包络分析）方法对山东省17地市1993-2008年16年间的农业生产效率进行了实证分析,结果表明山东省各地市农业生产综合效率均值在演变趋势上分为3个阶段;不同区域在综合效率、技术效率和规模效率上存在着显著的差异;鲁西地区农业生产在农技推广和科技成果转化上存在明显不足,鲁中地区农业生产资料的投入结构急需改善。最后提出在具体实践过程中,应依靠科学技术进步和生产要素重组来提高农业生产效率。     

21世纪以来世界猕猴桃产业发展以及我国猕猴桃贸易与国际竞争力分析

进入21世纪以来,世界和中国的猕猴桃生产、贸易和竞争力都有了新的变化。本文以世界粮农组织（FAO）数据和相关文献为基础,分析了猕猴桃生产和发展情况以及我国猕猴桃贸易和竞争力。世界猕猴桃的收获面积和产量持续增加,我国猕猴桃产业得到了迅速发展,栽培面积和产量均居世界第一。单产与新西兰相比存在较大的差距。世界和我国猕猴桃的进口和出口呈现平稳增长态势,但是中国猕猴桃进口量和进口额远大于出口量和出口额。中国猕猴桃出口竞争力很差甚至极差水平上,在国际猕猴桃果市场上中国出口猕猴桃果品质中等偏低。针对中国猕猴桃生产和贸易中存在的问题,本文提出了改善中国猕猴桃产业发展和提高国际竞争力的措施。     

Urban–Rural Differences in Internet Usage,e‐Commerce,and e‐Banking: Evidence from Italy

ABSTRACT By reducing the cost of performing isolated economic activities in remote areas, information technology might serve as a substitute for urban agglomeration. The paper assesses this hypothesis using data on Italian households' usage of the Internet, e‐commerce, and e‐banking. The results do not support the argument that the Internet reduces the role of distance. Internet usage is much more frequent among urban consumers than among their non‐urban counterparts. The use of e‐commerce is basically unaffected by the size of the city where the household lives. Geographically remote consumers are discouraged from purchasing goods by the fact that they cannot inspect them beforehand. Leisure activities and cultural items (i.e., books, CDs, and tickets for museums and theaters) are the only goods and services for which e‐commerce is used more in isolated areas. Finally, e‐banking bears no relationship to city size. In choosing a bank, non‐urban customers give more importance to personal acquaintance than do urban clients, partly because bank account holders in remote areas are more likely to have taken out a loan from their bank.     

淮北地区水稻品种氮肥群体最高生产力及氮素吸收利用特性

以淮北地区有代表性的34个中熟中粳品种为试材,设置7个氮肥水平(0、150、187.5、225、262.5、300、337.5 kg hm^-2),得出各品种在这7个氮肥水平下出现的最高产量,将该最高产量定义为氮肥群体最高生产力。在此基础上,按氮肥群体最高生产力高低将品种划分为4个等级,即顶层水平( ≥10.50 t hm^-2)、高层水平(9.75~10.50 t hm^-2)、中层水平(9.00~9.75 t hm^-2)和底层水平( ≤9.00 t hm^-2),比较研究不同氮肥群体最高生产力等级品种的产量及其构成因素、群体光合物质生产和氮素吸收利用差异。结果表明,所有品种的氮肥群体最高生产力均出现在225、262.5、300 kg hm^-2三个氮肥水平,不同氮肥群体生产力差异极显著;随着生产力水平的提高,单位面积穗数先增加后降低,每穗粒数与群体颖花量显著增加,结实率显著下降;茎蘖成穗率、叶面积指数、光合势、有效叶面积率、高效叶面积率、粒叶比、总干物质积累量均以顶层水平最高,底层水平最低;移栽至拔节阶段的氮素积累比例表现为底层>中层>高层>顶层水平,拔节至抽穗、抽穗至成熟阶段表现为顶层>高层>中层>底层水平;移栽至拔节、拔节至抽穗及抽穗至成熟阶段的氮素吸收速率以顶层最高,顶层水平较底层水平分别高36.59%、34.36%和51.85%;随着氮肥群体生产力等级的提高,氮素吸收利用率和百千克籽粒吸氮量均提高;中熟中粳稻品种有氮低效型、氮中效型、氮较高效型和氮高效型,武运粳27、中稻1号、宁粳4号、连粳7号为高产氮高效品种。