基于支持向量机的水稻净光合速率预测模型

利用线性核函数、多项式核函数、径向基核函数和S型核函数,通过粒子群算法优化支持向量机中的惩罚参数c和gamma值,使用主成分分析对影响水稻净光合速率的影响因子进行特征提取,建立水稻净光合速率的支持向量机预测模型。试验结果表明,通过粒子群算法设定惩罚参数c为10,gamma值为0.904,通过训练集的训练,得到P_RBF预测模型,其对水稻净光合速率的预测效果最佳,预测精度达83%以上。     

改进的PSO-SVM模型在大坝变形预测中的应用

支持向量机(SVM)由于理论基础完善,在处理高维度非线性问题中,表现出了许多特有的优势。因此,支持向量机模型在处理大坝变形预测问题时具有明显的优越性,且常采用粒子群(PSO)算法对SVM模型的惩罚参数C和核函数σ进行寻优,但是标准的PSO算法存在早熟收敛以及易于陷入局部极小值等缺陷。引入柯西分布函数和密度函数,根据函数变化的性质对标准PSO算法中粒子位置和速度的更新公式进行改进,有效提升了算法的寻优性能。运用改进后的PSO-SVM模型对水布垭面板堆石坝的面板挠度变形进行预测分析,并与SVM模型、标准PSO-SVM模型的预测结果进行对比,结果显示,改进的PSO-SVM模型的拟合效果和预测精度都更加优秀,为进行大坝变形预测工作提供了一种性能优良,精度较高的预测模型。     

基于PSO-LSSVM算法的阶梯式溢洪道复氧率预测

最近,机器学习方法逐渐在水利工程中得到广泛运用。研究将采用最小二乘支持向量机(LSSVM)方法,建立阶梯式溢洪道各种流态下复氧率的预测模型。采用粒子群优化算法(PSO)优化了LSSVM算法的参数(惩罚函数γ和核函数常数σ~2),新的PSO-LSSVM模型预测精度相对于常用的BP模型明显提高。误差分析表明,在测试集上PSO-LSSVM模型的平均绝对百分比误差MAPE、均方差RMSE和平方相关系数R~2分别为1.100 0×10~(-3), 4.899 6×10~(-4)和9.998 6×10~(-1)。最后,采用平均影响值法评价了输入参数对复氧率的影响程度。     

大坝实测服役性态抗噪预测模型

大坝变形、渗流、应力应变等服役性态的原型监测数据序列,多具有非线性特征且易受噪声污染。为基于原型监测数据,通过构建大坝服役性态预测模型,高效合理地拟合和预测大坝非线性服役性态,需高度重视模型抗噪能力和泛化能力的提升。源于此目标,综合应用小波、支持向量机(SVM)、粒子群算法(PSO)等工具,开展了大坝实测服役性态抗噪预测模型的构建方法和应用研究。在对大坝服役性态原型监测数据小波消噪处理的基础上,借助支持向量机,建立了大坝实测服役性态预测模型;考虑模型精度受SVM惩罚因子及核函数参数影响显著的特点,引入PSO算法,实现了支持向量机参数的寻优。将文中方法应用于某实际大坝变形实测性态预测模型的构建,结果表明,所构建的抗噪预测模型较传统统计回归模型,在预测能力方面有一定的优越性,且对样本数量方面的要求可适当放宽,体现出较强的工程实用性。     

融合暗荧光参数的茄子叶片光合速率预测模型构建

现有光合预测模型主要考虑环境因子对植物光合作用的影响,模型只能对生理状况相似的叶片进行光合速率预测,本文面向不同生长状态叶片光合速率预测模型的建模需求,提出融合叶片暗荧光参数Fv/Fm的多环境因子光合速率预测模型构建方法。试验以不同生长状态的茄子叶片为样本,在获取暗荧光参数的同时,分别测量不同温度、CO2浓度和光照强度下的光合速率,构建建模样本集。在此基础上,利用遗传支持向量机算法,建立了光合速率统一预测模型,其训练集决定系数为0.8895,均方根误差为3.2679μmol/(m2·s)。采用异校验方式进行模型验证,结果表明,融合荧光参数后模型精度显著提高,光合速率预测值与实测值拟合斜率为0.9046,截距为0.3641,〖JP〗说明引入Fv/Fm后,模型可实现对不同生理状态叶片光合速率的精准预测。     

基于PSO-RVM-ARIMA的大坝变形预警模型

为克服支持向量机对核函数需满足Mercer条件的不足,学者们将相关向量机RVM引入大坝安全监测模型。为进一步提高RVM模型的预测精度,首先通过粒子群算法PSO对RVM的核参数寻优,再利用ARIMA模型对PSO-RVM模型的拟合残差项进行预测修正,建立PSO-RVM-ARIMA模型。通过实例分析,PSO-RVM-ARIMA模型的预测精度和泛化能力较RVM模型均有一定程度的提高。     

基于GA优化AR-LSSVR组合模型在区域降雨量预测中的应用研究

为了提高地区降雨量的预测精度,提出遗传算法优化的时间序列最小二乘支持向量机回归组合模型。首先利用时间序列分析法对858农场年降雨量数据进行拟合,其次对拟合后实际数据与拟合数据产生的绝对误差运用最小二乘支持向量机进行训练,较好地解决了小样本、高维数、非线性和局部极小问题,同时避开了传统的网格搜索法在大范围内寻找参数费时等缺点,采用遗传算法寻找最佳的惩罚参数c和核函数参数g,训练结果与实际测量值接近,预测精度较高,并对未来3a的降雨量进行了预测,为858农场未来水资源规划、合理制定灌溉制度、抗旱防涝提供了重要的科学依据。     

基于ACO-SVR的混凝土坝变形监控模型

近年来,支持向量机(SVM)在建立大坝安全监控模型中得到了广泛应用,但其拟合精度和泛化能力取决于模型核参数σ和惩罚因子C的选取。以最小k-fold交叉验证误差为目标,用蚁群路径优化选择的节点值体现,并选择支持向量回归机中的核参数σ和惩罚因子C。以此建立了基于蚁群算法优化支持向量回归机(ACO-SVR)的混凝土坝变形监控模型。通过工程案例研究,结果表明:该方法在参数优化方面具有较快的寻优速率,用于混凝土坝变形监控的建模研究精度较高,具有广泛的适用性。     

支持向量回归机在水质预测中的应用与验证

以干旱区浅水湖泊乌梁素海的多年实测pH值为例,在分析支持向量回归机算法（ε-SVR）核函数选取的基础上进行了回归分析及预测,并与线性回归、BP神经网络、RBF网络等算法进行了比较。研究结果显示：：（1） 基于径向基核的支持向量回归机模拟效果优于其它核函数;（2）ε-SVR模拟结果与线性回归（LR）、BP神经网络和RBF网络等算法模拟结果相比,其拟合精度与预测精度均比其它三种方法要高。计算结果充分证明了支持向量回归机有较强的学习能力和泛化能力且该方法可以应用于水质预测研究。     

基于粒子群寻优的支持向量机番茄红素含量预测

应用支持向量机(SVM)通过色差值对番茄果实番茄红素含量预测进行建模,解决预测过程受影响因素多、参数互相关联、难以建立精确模型问题。为提高预测精度,将SVM参数选择和输入变量的选取看作组合优化问题,通过赤池信息准则(AIC)构造组合目标优化函数,采用粒子群算法(PSO)进行目标函数搜索,提高了搜索效率。对采后储藏不同成熟度番茄进行的测量表明,所提预测建模算法在番茄红素的预测中具有良好的性能,为番茄红素的便捷、无破坏性测量提供了一种方法。     

Overland water and salt flows in a set of rice paddies

Cultivation of paddy rice in semiarid areas of the world faces problems related to water scarcity. This paper aims at characterizing water use in a set of paddies located in the central Ebro basin of Spain using experimentation and computer simulation. A commercial field with six interconnected paddies, with a total area of 5.31 ha, was instrumented to measure discharge and water quality at the inflow and at the runoff outlet. The soil was classified as a Typic Calcixerept, and was characterized by a mild salinity (2.5 dS m⁻¹) and an infiltration rate of 5.8 mm day⁻¹. The evolution of flow depth at all paddies was recorded. Data from the 2002 rice-growing season was elaborated using a mass balance approach to estimate the infiltration rate and the evolution of discharge between paddies. Seasonal crop evapotranspiration, estimated with the surface renewal method, was 731 mm (5.1 mm day⁻¹), very similar to that of other summer cereals grown in the area, like corn. The irrigation input was 1874 mm, deep percolation was 830 mm and surface runoff was 372 mm. Irrigation efficiency was estimated as 41%. The quality of surface runoff water was slightly degraded due to evapoconcentration and to the contact with the soil. During the period 2001–2003, the electrical conductivity of surface runoff water was 54% higher than that of irrigation water. However, the runoff water was suitable for irrigation. A mechanistic mass balance model of inter-paddy water flow permitted to conclude that improvements in irrigation efficiency cannot be easily obtained in the experimental conditions. Since deep percolation losses more than double surface runoff losses, a reduction in irrigation discharge would not have much room for efficiency improvement. Simulations also showed that rice irrigation performance was not negatively affected by the fluctuating inflow hydrograph. These hydrographs are typical of turnouts located at the tail end of tertiary irrigation ditches. In fact, these are the sites where rice has been historically cultivated in the study area, since local soils are often saline-sodic and can only grow paddy rice taking advantage of the low salinity of the irrigation water. The low infiltration rate characteristic of these saline-sodic soils (an experimental value of 3.2 mm day⁻¹ was obtained) combined with a reduced irrigation discharge resulted in a simulated irrigation efficiency of 60%. Paddy rice irrigation efficiency can attain reasonable values in the local saline-sodic soils, where the infiltration rate is clearly smaller than the average daily rice evapotranspiration.     

瓦房店市水果生产标准化发展研究

瓦房店市是我国重要的水果生产基地,在国内水果生产领域占有重要地位。随着水果市场化的不断深入,如何满足和适应国内外市场需求成为瓦房店市水果生产的关键问题。从瓦房店市水果生产实际出发,阐述了实施水果生产标准化的必要性,提出了发展水果生产标准化的具体措施。     

金谷子耐旱TG118引种试种及推广应用

对引进的谷子新品种金谷子耐旱TG118进行品种比较试验和多点试种。结果表明：该品种抗旱、耐瘠、适应性强,稳产、高产、抗病抗风抗倒伏强,品质优良,粮草兼用,种植简单,省工易管;一般产量在6000kg/hm2以上,比当地主栽品种增产20%以上。最高产量达9450kg/hm2,适于在辽西北地区推广应用。     

对《种子法》存在问题的探讨

《种子法》是我国种植业第一部法律。自实施以来,为依法加强种子管理提供了有力的法律支撑,促进我国种子产业发生翻天覆地的变化。但随着依法管理工作的深入和种子产业的快速发展,《种子法》及配套规章的一些问题逐步显现出来。对《种子法》及配套规章存在的问题进行深入分析,对需要进一步补充的章节以及需要调整的内容进行深入探讨,以求更加完善和明确。     

Review of the Egyptian experience in implementing land drainage projects

About 30 years have passed since the Government of Egypt embarked on implementing a series of large scale drainage projects. At present, about 3.8 million acres have been provided with drainage systems on the basis of systematic pre-drainage investigations and designs. The target is to provide drains in approximately 6.4 million acres in the Nile Valley and Delta.The implementation of the subsurface drainage system is carried out by the public sector and private contractors under direct supervision of governmental regional departments. The implementation process depends on many factors related to the drainage material, machinery, manpower, site requirements, farmers and organizations involved. Problems and constraints are sometimes challenging, however, the annual rate of implementation has gradually increased to 170,000 acre/year.This paper discusses the different aspects involved in the implementation process of drainage systems. The development in materials, machinery and construction technologies will be reviewed. Institutional and management factors are going to be also considered.     

和谐社会理论建设的几点哲学思考

在新世纪,面对机遇和挑战,党的十六大把“社会更加和谐”作为全面建设更高水平的小康社会的一个重要目标。中国人素有社会和谐的理想;西方人自古也向往社会和谐;借鉴东西方两种和谐社会思想的经验、教训,构建社会主义和谐社会理论。     

A European irrigation map for spatially distributed agricultural modelling

We present a pan-European irrigation map based on regional European statistics, a European land use map and a global irrigation map. The map provides spatial information on the distribution of irrigated areas per crop type which allows determining irrigated areas at the level of spatial modelling units. The map is a requirement for a European scale assessment of the impacts of irrigated agriculture on water resources based on spatially distributed modelling of crop growth and water balance. The irrigation map was compiled in a two step procedure. First, irrigated areas were distributed to potentially irrigated crops at a regional level (European statistical regions NUTS3), combining Farm Structure Survey (FSS) data on irrigated area, crop-specific irrigated area for crops whenever available, and total crop area. Second, crop-specific irrigated area was distributed within each statistical region based on the crop distribution given in our land use map. A global map of irrigated areas with a 5′ resolution was used to further constrain the distribution within each NUTS3 based on the density of irrigated areas. The constrained distribution of irrigated areas as taken from statistics to a high resolution dataset enables us to estimate irrigated areas for various spatial entities, including administrative, natural and artificial units, providing a reasonable input scenario for large-scale distributed modelling applications. The dataset bridges a gap between global datasets and detailed regional data on the distribution of irrigated areas and provides information for various assessments and modelling applications.     

粉质仪和拉伸仪在面粉生产中的应用

在介绍粉质仪和拉伸仪结构和原理的基础上,探讨了粉质曲线中吸水率、形成时间、稳定时间、弱化度和评价值等指标与面粉品质的关系,以及如何根据拉伸曲线中面团最大拉伸阻力、延伸度和拉伸曲线面积等指标来评价面团品质,并结合生产实际,概述了粉质仪和拉伸仪在面粉生产中的作用。     

农村信息化服务的现状及建设措施

分析当前我国农村信息化服务的现状,提出加强农村信息化服务的新举措。     

车辆ABS控制算法的研究及探讨

对现代汽车的ABS控制算法作了一些简单的介绍,同时指出了它们的一些缺陷,相应地提出了几种对ABS的其它控制方法并加以探讨,其中着重论述了ABS门限值控制算法中参考车速的确定方法和基于附着系数的控制算法。