应用危险确认模型评估土地管理的可持续发展

New Zealand is highly dependent on its soil resource for continued agricultural production.To avoid depleting this resource,there is a need to identify soils and associated land management practices where there is a risk of soil degradation.Environmental integraity and ecosystem services also need to be maintoained.Accordingly,to ensure sustainable production,The on -and off-site environmental impacts of aldn management need to be identified and managed.We developed a structural vulnerability index for New Zealand soils.This index ranks solis according to their inherent susceptibility to physical degradation when used for agricultural (pasture,forestry and cropping) Purposes.We also developed a rule-based model to assess soil sompaction vulnerability by characterising the combined effects of resistance and resilience,Other soil attributes have been approatised using seven chemical,physical and biological indicators of soil quality.These indicators have been applied in a nation -wide project involving data collection from over 500 sites for a range of land uses.These soil quality data can be interpreted via the World Wide Web -through the in teractive decisionsupport tool SINDI,The land-use impact model is a framework to assess agricultural land management and environmental sustainability,and may be applied to land units at any scale.Using land resource data and information the model explicitly identifies hazards to land productivity and environmental integrity,It utilises qualitative expert and local knowledge and quantitative model-based evaluations to assess the potential environmental impacts of land-management pratices.The model is linked to a geographic information system(GIS),allowing model outputs.such at the environmental impacts of site-specific best management practices,to be identified in a spatially explicit manner,The model has been tested in New Zealand in an area of pastoral land use.Advantages of this risk identification model include:utilising current knowledege of the causes and effects of land-management practices on soil degradation;linking land management practice to both on-and off-site environmental consequences;identifying important gaps in local knowledge,and providing spatially explicit information on the environmental impact of land-management practices.     

Development policies and tropical deforestation in the southern Yucatán peninsula: centralized and decentralized approaches

It is well established that for multiple biophysical contexts there are legacies of past government policies in present land conditions. Despite this recognition, however, investigation of ongoing tropical deforestation dynamics often de‐emphasizes the past. The case of the southern Yucatán peninsula demonstrates the need for historical analysis in identifying key drivers of deforestation. The most important land‐use changes in the region over the past 100 years are connected to shifts in national development policies. These shifts represent tensions between centralized and decentralized approaches to land management—as represented by the policies of Presidents Díaz (1876–1910) and Cárdenas (1934–40)—that persisted throughout the 20th century. The legacies of these reoccurring development strategies include depleted hardwood reserves, large areas of permanently cleared forest, a complicated system of land allocation, and long‐standing tensions between economic, social welfare, and environmental conservation goals. These findings suggest that while centralized and decentralized approaches to development both focus on natural resource exploitation, the rates of deforestation tend to be faster, the patterns of forest clearing more pronounced, and land‐use decision making less democratic under systems of centralized control. These conclusions hold implications for land‐use decision making today. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

我国耕地资源开发利用现状及研究进展

从我国耕地资源开发利用的现状入手,提出了耕地资源开发利用中存在的问题:耕地总量和人均耕地面积减少、耕地质量下降、耕地污染和生态功能退化等。然后从农作物遥感估产、土地变化监测及驱动机制研究、耕地粮食生产力和人口承载力研究等方面探讨了耕地资源及其利用领域的研究进展。最后提出了耕地资源合理开发和可持续利用的思路。     

香港土壤研究 Ⅰ.研究现状与展望

对近半个世纪以来香港地区的土壤分类、农业和园林绿地土壤的肥力以及土壤环境保护等研究工作进行了系统的回顾和介绍,为中国香港地区及其他社会经济快速发展地区的土壤资源合理利用、生态环境保护与社会可持续发展提供了科学信息。认为,高度城市化和国际化的香港地区可以结合香港高科技及新产业的发展目标,合理利用和开发土地资源,定向培育中草药产地土壤环境与教育基地;需要进一步系统研究香港地区土壤发生与系统分类、性状与特征、空间分布与变异规律,建立香港土壤基础数据库、土壤图和土壤信息与服务系统;进一步探明污染元素和有益元素的土壤地球化学背景以及持久性有机污染物的环境生物地球化学过程及其生态与健康风险,建立长期的土壤环境质量动态观测点与研究平台,以及区域尺度的土壤环境质量信息系统和定量可视化预测预警系统;研究与发展适合香港地区的有问题土壤的风险评估与修复技术体系     

土地开发整理投资估算分析方法探析——以江苏省为例

本研究建立单位面积标准投资估算法和重点项目投资估算法来估算区域土地开发整理总投资量和重点项目、重点工程的投资额。分析了土地开发整理投资影响因素，并采用灰色关联分析方法确定其权重，据此计算出重点项目估算法巾参数n。根据上述方法估算了江苏省规划期内(2001—2010年)土地开发整理总投资量和各重点项目的投资额。     

青海省耕地资源开发利用分析及对策研究

分析论述了青海省耕地资源开发利用的现状、特点和问题。在此基础上,提出了对青海省耕地资源进行研究的框架体系和思路,同时基于GIS/RS技术设计了相关的技术路线。最后依据所做设计对青海省耕地资源开发利用做了初步分析,并进行了相关的对策研究分析。     

DIVERSITY AND DYNAMICS OF MANAGEMENT OF GUM AND RESIN RESOURCES IN ETHIOPIA: A TRADE‐OFF BETWEEN DOMESTICATION AND DEGRADATION

Although the human domestication of forest and tree resources is often considered to result in resource degradation, it may also lead to improved resource potentials. This paper assesses the nature and dynamics of gum and resin focused woodland exploitation and management systems in Ethiopia in the context of degradation and domestication processes. In three sites with commercial gum resin producing woodlands and production history, we studied variation in (i) woodland management and gum resin production systems and (ii) socio‐economic and biophysical factors that condition the management and production systems. On the basis of their organizational features, we formulated nine production models and related them to different phases of domestication and different degrees of ecosystem degradation. The production systems gradually evolved from the extraction of wild trees to production in an adapted forest system. However, domesticated woodlands with an adapted forest structure and composition and increased provisioning services are still little developed despite decades of production history. Many of these woodlands are undergoing serious degradation because of low quality management practices. This is mainly attributable to existing land use practices and the social arrangements for the production of and trade in the gums and resins. The findings illustrate that domestication involves not only a change in ecological and production systems but also the development of social arrangements for production and trade. We conclude that the status of domestication in a social sense determines whether forests and/or specific forest resources are degraded or aggraded in the sense of resource enrichment. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Development of a simulation based land evaluation system using crop modelling, expert systems and risk analysis

Abstract. Current methods of agricultural land evaluation in Queensland and other parts of Australia have been criticized for their inflexibility and lack of attention to costs (both private and social) associated with particular land uses. These deficiencies can limit the usefulness of land evaluation procedures in defining land capability and suitability for farm and regional land use planning. This paper outlines a new method based on soil potential ratings, that incorporates biophysical crop simulation modelling, expert systems and risk analysis. The technique is able to integrate biophysical and economic data in a measure which can be readily computed, updated and communicated to land managers.     

Mapping and monitoring land degradation risks in the Western Brazilian Amazon using multitemporal Landsat TM/ETM+ images

Mapping and monitoring land degradation in areas under human‐induced stresses have become urgent tasks in remote sensing whose importance has not yet been fully appreciated. In this study, a surface cover index (SCI) is developed to evaluate and map potential land degradation risks associated with deforestation and accompanying soil erosion in a Western Brazilian Amazon rural settlement study area. The relationships between land‐use and land‐cover (LULC) types and land degradation risks as well as the impacts of LULC change on land degradation are examined. This research indicates that remotely sensed data can be effectively used for identification and mapping of land degradation risks and monitoring of land degradation changes in the study area. Sites covered by mature forest and advanced successional forests have low land degradation risk potential, while some types of initial successional forests, agroforestry/perennial agriculture and pasture have higher risk potential. Deforestation and associated soil erosion are major causes leading to land degradation, while vegetation regrowth reduces such problems. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

粮食安全与生态安全双约束下江苏省耕地休耕规模探讨

实施耕地休耕是巩固提升粮食产能和促进农业可持续发展的重要举措,亟需科学合理地确定我国可休耕耕地规模,为深入实施"藏粮于地"战略和扩大耕地休耕制度试点提供理论依据。该研究基于粮食安全与生态安全双重约束构建粮食主产区耕地休耕最大规模测算仿真模型,同时提出休耕规模弹性边界的确定方法并以江苏省为实证区域进行仿真预测。结果表明：当前江苏省在兼顾粮食主产区的粮食调配任务且考虑区域耕地资源可持续利用状况的基础上,仍能保有10.16%的耕地资源来支撑耕地休耕制度的实施;仿真期内区域耕地资源面积可能会由于城市快速扩张和耕地保护不力出现大幅减少,并对区域耕地休耕条件环境产生影响;同时耕地资源可持续利用状况和休耕规模适宜程度的恶化导致江苏省休耕规模弹性边界从2017年的9.93%缩减至2036年的4.81%,区域粮食安全稳定状态终将被打破。建议充分利用粮食主产区的耕地资源基础积极有序推广开展耕地休耕工作,深入部署"藏粮于地"战略以巩固提升粮食产能;建立休耕规模与生态安全挂钩的指标预警体系以实现对休耕实施方案的宏观动态调节;统筹休耕与其他耕地保护政策的正向联动,创造耕地保护政策体系内部的正向溢出效应。     

基于灰色关联法的哈尔滨市土地可持续利用评价研究

土地可持续利用是区域资源环境、经济社会可持续发展的前提和基础。以哈尔滨市市域为研究区,从资源环境协调性、经济可行性和社会可接受性三方面建立了土地可持续利用评价指标体系,运用熵值法计算指标权重,采用灰色关联法计算2001—2008年土地可持续利用水平。结果表明:2001—2008年哈尔滨市资源环境协调性、经济可行性和社会可接受性的变化态势差异显著,资源环境协调性呈大范围波动增长态势,经济可行性呈持续快速增长态势,社会可接受性在小范围内反复波动。2001—2008年间,哈尔滨市土地可持续利用水平总体呈上升态势,2001—2006年为中等可持续利用水平,2007—2008年为较高可持续利用水平。     

Application of spectral mixture modelling to the regional assessment of land degradation: A case study from basilicata,Italy

Mapping and monitoring of land degradation processes such as soil erosion has become an important task for both agricultural and environmental planners. The potential of using SPOT-HRV data for assessing the types of soil erosion and land degradation is obvious. The spectral information and the spatial resolution of the multispectral data allow a high accuracy in local mapping and rapid regional assessment. In Basilicata, southern Italy, spectral mixture modelling (end-member techniques) has been applied to extract relevant information for assessing soil erosion. This method allows an estimate of the proportion of surface cover types (end-members) within the pixel. From the data sets average spectral responses were extracted for growing vegetation, non-green sclerophylous vegetation mixed with dry grasses and bare soil. Using these spectra as end-members in the model, it was possible to decompose the spectral information of all pixels into the three surface components, giving the percentage cover of the three types within every pixel. Classification of the pixels according to the percentage of surface cover or bare soil allows an assessment of erosion or erosion risk.     

The use of land evaluation information by land use planners and decision-makers: a case study in Santa Catarina, Brazil

Abstract. Land evaluation is the prediction of land performance over time under specific uses, to guide strategic land use decisions. Modern land evaluation has a 30 year history, yet the results have often been disappointing. Land users and planners have been reported to ignore land evaluations, perhaps reflecting poor quality, low relevance, or poor communication. To test the success of a large land evaluation exercise undertaken as part of micro-catchment project in Santa Catarina State, southern Brazil, we queried agricultural extensionists, considered as the primary land evaluation clients. We used a questionnaire with both structured and open questions, to determine their experiences with, and attitudes to, the current land evaluation method. The soil resource inventory and associated land evaluation had some usefulness, but were not in general used for their intended purpose, namely farm planning. This was mainly because they did not contain crucial information necessary to such planning in the actual context of the farmer taking decisions. The primary deficiencies were identified as:

• (1)

  no estimate of environmental degradation risk;

       
  
  

基于遥感光谱的干旱区土地退化评价体系构建

干旱区土地退化(荒漠化)作为全球面临生态环境挑战之一,对粮食安全、环境质量和区域自然资源管理至关重要。土地退化本质是人与自然因素协同作用下土地利用/覆被类型、数量、结构以及功能的改变而引起的生态服务价值降低,核心是土壤和植被的退化。一方面,人与自然共同作用下的土地利用覆被可以表征土地退化状态,另一方面植被-土壤生境时间序列相互作用过程进一步辅助土地退化过程诊断。因此,该文首先从覆被结构、退化类型和退化程度3个层次建立干旱区土地退化状态评价体系。其次,采用GF-1/WFV时间序列遥感影像,基于多端元光谱混合分解模型建立土地利用/覆被精细分类量化表征下垫面质量属性,并进一步利用植被-生境组分互动特征参数进行功能量化,综合评价民勤2015年退化类型和退化程度。最后,结合地面立地景观照片以及采样点实测数据,对土地退化状态评价结果进行绝对定标和交叉验证。结果表明:遥感评价识别土地退化类型和程度的能力分别为87.5%和78.7%。对于民勤旱地系统,沙化过程、沙-盐化过程是主要的土地退化过程,轻度沙化、中度沙化为主导退化程度。该方法为宽波段遥感国产高分1号卫星在旱地系统土地退化状态信息提取和深入应用提供科学依据和实证研究。     

高风险重金属污染土壤识别研究方法综述

高风险的重金属污染土壤的识别和探测是土壤健康风险评价及管理的基础,也是有效控制土壤污染、保障环境安全和农业可持续发展的重要前提。本文综述了高风险重金属污染土壤识别的方法及各自优缺点,主要包括元素剖面分布对比、与环境标准和背景值对比、同位素示踪、探索性统计分析、GIS制图和空间分析、多元统计分析、地统计学、空间统计分析和高精度曲面建模方法。将高精度曲面建模(HASM)与GIS空间分析、多元统计分析以及空间统计分析相结合,不仅可为土壤和土地资源普查和污染调查提供方法和理论上的借鉴,而且还可直接为土壤污染现状评价和风险管理、区域环境质量改善和土地利用规划等提供科学依据,是未来高风险重金属污染土壤识别研究的重要方向之一。     

基于改进灰色关联分析法的湖南省城市土地可持续利用评价

从资源环境、经济发展和社会和谐3个方面构建城市土地可持续利用评价指标体系.采用改进灰色关联分析法,对湖南省城市土地可持续利用水平进行综合评价.结果表明:(1) 2000-2010年,湖南省城市土地可持续利用状态从较低水平发展为较高水平,但仍有较大提升空间;(2)对城市土地可持续利用影响最大的因素是资源环境,其次是社会和谐,最后是经济发展;(3)资源环境、经济发展与社会和谐子目标的灰色关联度总体呈上升态势,但社会和谐子目标在11a间呈现较大波动.为进一步提高湖南省城市土地可持续利用水平,应进一步加快经济发展速度,加大城市土地内涵挖潜,优化土地利用结构,加强环境保护,加快城市交通和基础设施建设,加大公共设施用地比重.     

土壤环境质量指导值与标准研究Ⅰ.国际动态及中国的修订考虑

介绍了国际上土壤质量指导值的研究动态、指导原则及应用功能,提出对中国现行土壤环境质量标准进行修订的若干考虑。基于风险的土壤质量指导值／标准已是国际发展的必然趋势。基于风险的土壤质量指导值／标准的制定,需考虑不同的土地利用方式,设置各种土地利用方式下的一般暴露途径、暴露参数(如暴露周期和暴露频率)和临界风险受体。基于风险的土壤质量指导值／标准多用于污染场地／土壤的风险管理,是潜在污染场地／土壤健康风险初步识别和预测的依据。中国现行土壤环境质量标准的修订,需对标准的功能和宗旨、制定方法论、土地利用方式、土壤污染物迁移对其他环境介质的影响、污染物的种类等方面予以考虑。现行标准修订的最终目的是要建立保护生态和人体健康的“土壤环境和健康质量指导值／标准”,服务于污染场地／土壤的识别及风险管理,同时还需制定保护土壤资源的“土壤自然质量指导值／标准”。     

洞庭湖区堤垸耕地资源可持续性及其保护对策

从洞庭湖区堤垸人口、耕地资源时空特点入手,分析了堤垸耕地资源形成、发展变化趋势,耕地利用现状。洞庭湖区堤垸在“平垸行洪、退田还湖”的生态恢复建设和经济发展中,面临着人口不断增加,人均耕地减少;土地污染严重,耕地质量下降等问题。针对湖区社会、生态协调持续发展的原则,提出了6条堤垸耕地资源可持续性及其保护对策。(1)调整农业布局与种植制度,使耕地利用制度逐渐和耕地资源变化特点相吻合,保持耕地生态环境及其持续性。(2)据堤垸生态环境条件,采用避灾农业。(3)将水利基础设施建设列为国家保护农业生态环境重要内容之一。(4)加强对农业建设占用耕地的审批与管理。(5)加强环保意识,提高耕地质量。(6)积极推广节水灌溉技术。     

关于江西省水土流失动态监测的构想

分析了江西省开展水土流失动态监测的目的、意义。提出了水土流失动态监测的原则、目标、范围与内容。并指出该省水土流失动态监测工作必须加强网络体系、技术体系和指标体系这“三大体系”建设 ,建立全省水土保持管理信息系统     

Soil available water capacity interpolation and spatial uncertainty modelling at multiple geographical extents

Assessment of the spatial distribution of environmental variables and of the associated uncertainty is a key issue in environmental modelling. The water content of soil plays an important role in many ecological and hydrological processes for land suitability evaluation. In this study we present a flexible procedure to interpolate soil-related variables that uses covariates to estimate the spatial trend of the variables and quantifies the uncertainty dealing with non-linear relationships. The procedure further extends approaches based on generalized additive models. The use of Gaussian simulations of the error allows the assessment of spatial uncertainty. The method was applied to available soil water capacity for three different nested extents: national, regional, and catchment. The models fitted have different significant covariates and different estimated values according to the region considered. The results suggest that the estimates from the model fitted at the appropriate extent are the most accurate. Taking into account the uncertainty of the trend, the results provided a realistic estimation of the variability and they are spatially consistent with the geomorphological patterns. Estimating the variability with the proposed procedure is useful for further environmental and land use modelling and it can be integrated with uncertainty from other variables, such as those derived from climate models.