Epidemic dynamics and patterns of plant diseases

ABSTRACT The general Kermack and McKendrick epidemic model (K&M) is derived with an appropriate terminology for plant diseases. The epidemic dynamics and patterns of special cases of the K&M model, such as the Vanderplank differential-delay equation; the compartmental healthy (H), latent (L), infectious (S), and postinfectious (R) model; and the K&M model with a delay-gamma-distributed sporulation curve were compared. The characteristics of the disease cycle are summarized by the basic reproductive number, R(0), and the normalized sporulation curve, i(tau). We show how R(0) and the normalized sporulation curve can be calculated from data in the literature. There are equivalences in the values of the basic reproductive number, R(0), the epidemic threshold, and the final disease level across the different models.However, they differ in expressions for the initial disease rate, r, and the initial infection, Q, because the values depend on the sporulation curve. Expressions for r and Q were obtained for each model and can be used to approximate the epidemic curve by the logistic equation.     

Modelling the progress of light leaf spot (Pyrenopeziza brassicae) on winter oilseed rape (Brassica napus) in relation to leaf wetness and temperature

A compartmental model was developed to describe the progress with time of light leaf spot ( Pyrenopeziza brassicae ) on leaves of winter oilseed rape ( Brassica napus ) during the autumn in the UK. Differential equations described the transition between the four compartments: healthy susceptible leaves, infected symptomless leaves, sporulating symptomless leaves and leaves with necrotic light leaf spot lesions, respectively. The model was fitted to data on the progress of light leaf spot on winter oilseed rape at a single site during the autumn of the 1990–1991 season. Model parameters were used to describe rates of leaf appearance, leaf death, infection by airborne ascospores (primary inoculum) and infection by splash-dispersed conidiospores (secondary inoculum). Infection was dependent on sufficient leaf wetness duration. The model also included delay terms for the latent period between infection and sporulation and the incubation period between infection and the appearance of necrotic light leaf spot lesions. This modified SEIR model formulation gave a reasonable fit to the experimental data. Sensitivity analysis showed that varying the parameter accounting for the rate of infection by ascospores affected the magnitude of the curves after the start of the epidemic, whilst including a parameter for conidiospore infection improved the fit to the data. Use of ascospore counts from different sites and different years showed variation in spore release patterns sufficient to affect model predictions.     

广西筛选稻瘟病抗源品种的初步研究

 1973~1979年间,在广西稻瘟病圃试验了11198个水稻品种。有一些抗病品种曾以人工接种测定.其中23个品种呈现稳定的高抗至中抗反应。
试验结果表明,红脚占、砦糖、金围矮是广谱抗稻瘟病的品种。
初步观测表明,叶瘟与穗瘟的抗病反应是相关的。
文中讨论了对稻瘟病抗病性的类型,未发现范德普兰克(1968年)描述的对病原的所有小种反应一致的水平抗性品种。     

Epidemiology and chemical control of take-all on seminal and adventitious roots of wheat

ABSTRACT Epidemiological modeling is used to examine the effect of silthiofam seed treatment on field epidemics of take-all in winter wheat. A simple compartmental model, including terms for primary infection, secondary infection, root production, and decay of inoculum, was fitted to data describing change in the number of diseased and susceptible roots per plant over thermal time obtained from replicated field trials. This produced a composite curve describing change in the proportion of diseased roots over time that increased monotonically to an initial plateau and then increased exponentially thereafter. The shape of this curve was consistent with consecutive phases of primary and secondary infection. The seed treatment reduced the proportion of diseased roots throughout both phases of the epidemic. However, analysis with the model detected a significant reduction in the rate of primary, but not secondary, infection. The potential for silthiofam to affect secondary infection from diseased seminal or adventitious roots was examined in further detail by extending the compartmental model and fitting to change in the number of diseased and susceptible seminal or adventitious roots. Rates of secondary infection from either source of infected roots were not affected. Seed treatment controlled primary infection of seminal roots from particulate inoculum but not secondary infection from either seminal or adventitious roots. The reduction in disease for silthiofam-treated plants observed following the secondary infection phase of the epidemic was not due to long-term activity of the chemical but to the manifestation of disease control early in the epidemic.     

Modelling the effects of temperature and leaf wetness on monocyclic infection in a tropical fungal pathosystem

Modelling the epidemiology of water yam anthracnose (Dioscorea alata) caused by the fungus Colletotrichum gloeosporioides is an important research goal, as it will allow the investigation of a wide range of scenarios of new practices to reduce the disease impact before experimentation in the field. Developing such a model requires a prior knowledge of the fungus’s response to the environmental conditions, which will be affected by pest management. In this work, we first measured the response of the fungus to the main physical environmental factors controlling its development, namely temperature (ranging from 18 °C to 36 °C) and wetness duration (from 2 h to 72 h). As response variables, we measured the percentage of formed appressoria (relative to the total number of spores), the length of the latent period (time lag between inoculation and first symptoms observed), and the rate of necrotic lesion extension (percentage of diseased leaf surface at different time steps). These variables allow us to estimate the effects of temperature and wetness duration on the success of infection (appressoria formation) and the subsequent rate of disease development (latent period length and lesion extension rate). The data were fitted to non-linear models chosen for their ability to describe the observed patterns. From our data and model analyses, we were able to estimate parameters such as the optimal and maximal temperatures (25–28 °C and 36 °C, respectively), the required wetness duration to reach 20 % of infection success and the time to reach 5 % disease severity as a function of temperature.     

Field models for the prediction of leaf infection and latent period of Fusicladium oleagineum on olive based on rain,temperature and relative humidity

Although much is known about the effect of climatic conditions on the development of peacock leaf spot of olive, field‐operational models predicting disease outbreaks are lacking. With the aim of developing such models, a 10‐year survey was conducted to relate leaf infection to climate parameters that can be easily monitored in the field. As outbreaks of disease are known to be linked to rain, models were evaluated for their ability to predict whether infection would occur following a rain event, depending on air temperature and duration of relative humidity above 85%. A total of 134 rain events followed by confirmed leaf infection and 191 rain events not followed by detectable infection were examined. The field data were adequately fitted (both specificity and sensitivity >0·97) with either a multilayer neural network or with two of six tested regression models describing high boundary values of high humidity duration, above which no infection occurred over the temperature range, and low boundary values below which no infection occurred. The data also allowed the selection of a model successfully relating the duration of latent period (time between infection and the first detection of leaf spots) as a function of air temperature after the beginning of rain (R² > 0·98). The predictive abilities of these models were confirmed during 2 years of testing in commercial olive orchards in southern France. They should thus provide useful forecasting tools for the rational application of treatments and foster a reduction in fungicide use against this major disease of olive.     

Use of bayesian methods to improve prediction of panicle and shoot blight severity of pistachio in california

ABSTRACT Panicle and shoot blight, caused by a Fusicoccum sp., is one of the major aboveground diseases of pistachio in California. The effects of temperature, number of continuous rainy days in April and May, irrigation system, and incidence of latent infection of the Fusicoccum sp. on severity of panicle and shoot blight of pistachio leaves and fruit have been quantified previously, using data collected from 1999 through 2001. A predictive model for leaves and another model for fruit with good explanatory power were generated. In 2003 and 2004, newly collected data were used to evaluate the two models with non-Bayesian and Bayesian methods. The 95% credible (i.e., confidence) intervals of initial (before modification with non-Bayesian and Bayesian methods) and updated parameter estimates were used to investigate their prognostic validity. In 2003, the non-Bayesian analysis resulted in all parameter estimates, with the exception of cumulative daily mean temperature from 1 June until harvest, having different 95% confidence intervals than the parameter estimates of the original models. In addition, the parameter estimates for drip irrigation for the leaf infection and the parameter estimates for drip irrigation and number of continuous rainy days in April and May for fruit infection were not statistically significant. With Bayesian methods, the reestimated model parameters had overlapping 95% credible intervals with the initial estimated parameters, except for the number of continuous rainy days in April and May. When the two sets of modified parameter estimates were used to predict disease severity, statistically significant (alpha = 0.05) differences between observed and predicted disease severities were found with non-Bayesian analysis for leaf infection in three locations and with Bayesian analysis for fruit infection in one orchard. The parameter estimates were modified again at the end of the 2004 season and were all statistically significant with both non-Bayesian and Bayesian methods. Both sets of parameter estimates gave predictions that were not significantly different from observed disease severity on leaves and fruit in all monitored orchards in 2004. In summary, Bayesian methods gave more consistent results when used to update parameter estimates with new information and yielded predictions not statistically different from observed disease severity in more cases than the non-Bayesian analysis.     

Effects of powdery mildew and weather on winter wheat yield. 2. Effects of mildew epidemics

Wheat yield losses caused by powdery mildew were computed based on effects of the disease on leaf photosynthesis. Powdery mildew was introduced in a crop model of wheat by quantification of five parameters, taking the vertical and horizontal distribution of mildew in the crop into account. The most important parameters were those of the mildew intensity, the distribution of mildew in the crop, and the effect of mildew on assimilation at light saturation. Measured mildew epidemics in field experiments in three different years, were used to compute yield losses. Computed losses were compared to measured losses. On average, computed yield loss approached measured, but measured yield loss was underestimated, especially in early mildew epidemics due to the computation of partitioning and reallocation of assimilates. Other processes which may cause an underestimation are described. The use of crop models as a method to upgrade disease management systems is discussed.Samenvatting Opbrengstderving van wintertarwe werd berekend aan de hand van het effect dat meeldauw heeft op de blad-fotosynthese. Een rekenmodel voor de gewasgroei van tarwe werd uitgebreid met meeldauw. Met inachtneming van de vertikale en horizontale verdeling van meeldauw in het gewas, werd meeldauw in het model gekwantificeerd door vijf parameters. De belangrijkste parameters waren die van de meeldauwintensiteit, de verdeling van meeldauw in het gewas en het effect van meeldauw op de assimilatie bij een overvloed aan licht. Epidemieën van meeldauw, gemeten in veldproeven in drie verschillende jaren, werden gebruikt om opbrengstdervingen te berekenen. Gemiddeld kwam deze redelijk overeen met de in de veldproeven gemeten opbrengstderving. De gemeten opbrengstderving werd echter onderschat, vooral bij vroege epidemieën van meeldauw door de wijze waarop de (her)verdeling van assimilaten wordt berekend. Andere mechanismen, die een onderschatting van opbrengstderving kunnen veroorzaken worden besproken. Of deze modellen als methode gebruikt kunnen worden om systemen voor de geleide bestrijding van ziekten te verbeteren wordt bediscussieerd.     

Influence of humidity on incidence of Didymella bryoniae on cucumber leaves and growing tips under controlled environmental conditions

The influence of relative humidity, leaf wetting, mechanical injury and inoculum concentration on the incidence ofDidymella bryoniae on growing tips and young and older leaves of cucumber was studied in growth chambers.Infection was rare at 60% r.h. It increased at 95% r.h. and was most serious if the leaves were kept wet. A period of 1 hour of free water was sufficient for the initial stage of infection. For further expansion of the disease, leaf wetness was required.A high relative humidity did not predispose leaves to infection byD. bryoniae. Wounding was essential for infection of older leaves, but not for infection of young plant tissue.A higher conidial concentration increased infection. Without keeping, the leaves wet at 95% r.h. a tenfold conidial concentration was needed to get equal infection as with leaf wetting.To control the disease by means of the climate, it is of major importance to prevent the presence of free water on plant parts.Samenvatting De invloed van de relatieve luchtvochtigheid, het bevochtigen van het blad, mechanische beschadiging en inoculumconcentratie op het optreden vanDidymella bryoniae op groeipunten en jonge en oudere bladeren van komkommer is in klimaatkasten onderzocht.Aantasting kwam zelden voor bij 60% R.V., nam toe bij 95% R.V. en was het ernstigst als de bladeren nat werden gehouden. Voor de eerste fase van infective was de aanwezigheid van vrij water gedurende 1 à 2 uur voldoende. Voor een verdere uitbreiding van de aantasting moest het blad nat zijn.Een hoge relatieve luchtvochtigheid had geen predispositie-effect of de infectie van bladeren doorD. bryoniae.Voor de infectie van oudere bladeren was verwonding nodig, voor die van jong planteweefsel niet.Een hogere concentratie van conidiën verhoogde de aantasting. Zonder het blad nat te houden, was een tienvoudige concentratie van conidiën nodig om een gelijke infectie te verkrijgen als met bladbevochtiging.Voor de bestrijding van de ziekte via het klimaat is het tegengaan van de aanwezigheid van vrij water op plantedelen van het grootste belang.Seconded to the Glasshouse Crops Research and Experiment Station, Zuidweg 38, 2671 MN Naaldwijk, the Netherlands.     

How does selection of climate variables affect predictions of species distributions? A case study of three new weeds in New Zealand

Species distribution models are an important tool to predict potential spread of weeds. While recent progress has improved model performance, there is still concern about the validity of such models, especially when applied to novel geographical regions or climates. This study investigates how different sets of variables influence predicted distributions, considering several measures of model performance and how extrapolation to novel geographical regions may affect results. Potential distributions of three new weeds in New Zealand (Archontophoenix cunninghamiana, Psidium guajava and Schefflera actinophylla) are modelled, by training a model based on global data from native and introduced ranges and projecting it to New Zealand, using Maxent. For each species, four models were calibrated: first with a full set of 19 bioclimatic variables, then with a customised set with selection based on analysis of response curves and finally with two reduced sets of uncorrelated variables. Although AUC across all models was very high (AUC ≥ 0.9), correlations between models ranged between 0.27 and 0.98. Inclusion of all variables predicted larger areas to be suitable in the projected region, with highly unlikely predictions in some areas, especially where bioclimatic variables showed values outside the range of the training data (new environments). Conversely, minimal extrapolation and more realistic predictions of weed distributions were obtained from models including a customised set of variables, and even more so from models including only a reduced set of variables. This study shows that careful selection of variables and investigation into extrapolation are vital in generating more realistic predictions of weed distributions.     

Spatial distribution of weeds in arable crops: are current sampling and analytical methods appropriate?

This paper reviews the literature concerning the spatial distribution of weeds; highlighting the limitations of our current sampling and analytical methodologies, and suggesting how these inadequacies can be addressed. Most research studies have used discrete sampling, i.e. weeds are counted within a quadrat, on a grid basis. Few have mapped weeds at a whole-field scale, either with a resolution appropriate to spraying operations or key ecological processes. Statistical analyses used to describe the data can be divided into two main types, spatially implicit (also at the scale of the sampling unit) or spatially explicit, in which the location of individuals is included in the analyses. Spatially implicit methods can be strongly affected by quadrat size and mean density and are of doubtful benefit. More attention is required to address sampling resolution issues for spatially explicit methods. Our understanding of the formation and dynamics of spatial pattern, as well as predicting the consequences of site-specific management, can be improved with models. Unfortunately, most models consider only newly expanding patches and appear incapable of predicting spatial distributions when an area has been fully invaded. More detailed biological information is required if models are to become more realistic and informative. We also need to ensure that we understand the spatial processes in the context of the whole field environment, to optimize the success of site-specific weed management in the longer term.     

Syntheseaktivität und Grösse der Zellkerne von Phaseolus vulgaris nach Infektion mit Uromyces phaseoli typica

Zusammenfassung In rostinfizierten Bohnenblättern werden acht Tage nach der Infektion¹⁴C-Orotsäure und³H-Uridin in die Zellkerne von Wirt und Parasit eingebaut, wobei relativ hohe Aktivität in den Wirtskernen unter der Pustel gefunden wird. Vorbehandlungen mit Actinomycin D verhindert diesen Einbau zum grössten Teil. Die Durchmesser der Wirtskerne sind im Pustelbereich klein und nehmen nach aussen stetig zu; die Nucleolen sind dagegen im Bereich der Pusteln ebenso gross wie in 750–1000 Abstand vom Pustelrand, und im dazwischen liegenden Bereich kleiner. Unter den Pusteln vonUromyces phaseoli typica treten in grösserem Umfang Mitosen auf; die relative Zahl nimmt vom Pustelkern aus gegen das ungestörte Gewebe zu ab. Die Ergebnisse werden im Blick auf verschiedene Typen der Wirt-Parasit-Beziehung diskutiert.Orotic acid-¹⁴C and uridine-³H was applied to floating discs of tissue from main leaflets ofPhaseolus vulgaris infected withUromyces phaseoli. Label appeared not only in the nuclei of the host cells but also in the nuclei of actively growing hyphae of the rust, as shown by Tschen (1966). The label is accumulated by DNA-dependent RNA synthesis. Pretreatment with actinomycin D limits labelling to about 10%. The label is destroyed by treating the tissue with RNAse, not with DNAse.In sections of host tissues near the rust pustule, the activity was higher in host nuclei near the pustule. In this region there were many dividing nuclei. The nuclei are smaller directly below the pustule than in zones of tissue further away from the centre of infection. Cell divisions are most frequent on the 7th to 8th day after inoculation.The results contrast with those on wheat with rust and are considered as a stimulation of the host tissue in a progressed stage of host-parasite relationship; it depends on the density of infection. The results are consistent with observations of Yarwood and Cohen (1950) on hypertrophy of bean leaves with rust.Samenvatting Met orotzuur-¹⁴C, toegediend aan drijvende schijfjes van primaire bladeren vanPhaseolus vulgaris geïnoculeerd metUromyces phaseoli, is het niet slechts mogelijk de kernen van de waardplant te merken, maar zoals aangetoond door Tschen (1966) ook die van de actief groeiende hyphen van de roest.¹⁴C-accumulatie vindt plaats door van DNA afhankelijke RNA-synthese. Voorbehandeling met actinomycine D voorkomt de inbouw van¹⁴C voor ongeveer 90%. De substitutie wordt teniet gedaan door behandeling van het weefsel met RNAse, niet met DNAse.Coupes van het waardplantweefsel onder en rond het roest-sporehoopje geven een grotere activiteit in de waardplantkernen te zien dichtbij het sporehoopje. In deze omgeving zijn vele delende kernen te zien. Onder het sporehoopje zijn de kernen kleiner dan in de weefselgedeelten die verder van het infectiecentrum zijn verwijderd. Celdelingen vinden het meest plaats 7–8 dagen na de inoculatie.De resultaten, strijdig met waarnemingen aan door roest aangetaste tarwe, worden beschouwd als een activering van het waardplantweefsel in een vergevorderd stadium van de waardplant-parasiet-relatie, afhankelijk van de mate van infectie. Deze resultaten stemmen overeen met waarnemingen van Yarwood en Cohen (1950) betreffende hypertrofie bij door roest aangetaste bonebladeren.     

Intracellular accumulation of passiflora latent virus in chenopodium quinoa

In ultrathin sections ofChenopodium quinoa plants, with systemic symptoms after inoculation withPassiflora latent virus, high concentration of virus particles could be easily observed.The virus particles occurred in bundles or extensive, slightly contorted plates in the cytoplasm, in bundles externally attached to the membranes of mitochondria and chloroplasts or in bundles of regular size attached to tonoplasm in protoplasmic strands. The excessive production of such abnormal protoplasmic strands with rather regularly distributed bundles of virus particles has not been reported before.No pinwheels or other structures characteristic of infection with representatives of the potato virus Y group have been observed. The accumulations of particles attached to chloroplasts resemble those known of potato viruses S and M.Samenvatting In ultradunne coupes van stukjes blad vanChenopodium quinoa, met systemische symptomen na inoculatie met het latentePassiflora-virus, konden opeenhopingen van grote hoeveelheden draadvormige deeltjes worden waargenomen. Van deze deeltjes wordt op grond van rangschikking, afmetingen en vorm angenomen dat ze virusdeeltjes zijn.De deeltjes kwamen vaak vriij in het protoplasma voor, in bundels van verschillende afmetingen of in licht gebogen of verwrongen platen. Daarin lagen de deeltjes stijf naast elkaar (Fig. 1 en 2). Door het niet geheel vlak liggen der platen gaf een doorsnede dwars op de lengterichting van de meeste deeltjes een draaikolkbeeld (Fig. 2). Soms vormden de virusdraden door overlapping meer langgerekte bundels (Fig. 3). Ze werden ook vaak waargenomen in groepen en met hun ene uiteinde liggend tegen een chloroplast of mitochondrion (Fig. 4, rechts, en 3). Daarnaast bleken de virusdeeltjes veel voor te komen in protoplasmastrengen en wel in overdwars liggende bundels van vrij regelmatige afmetingen (Fig. 4 tot 6). Waarschijnlijk werkt de affiniteit van de deeltjes tot de tonoplasmembraan de vorming van deze strengen in de hand. Misschien is de betrokken kracht ook verantwoordelijk voor het vaak afgeplat zijn van de protoplasma strengen, wat blijkt uit de scheef of zelfs nagenoeg vlak gesneden strengen van respectievelijk Fig. 5 en 6. In de laatste zijn de virusboundels vrijwel dwars op de lengterichting der deeltjes getroffen.In geïnfecteerde planten werden geen pinwheel structuren, zoals bekend van de aardappelvirus-Y-groep, gevonden. In neiging tot aggregatie met chloroplasten en mitochondria vertoont het latentePassiflora-virus overeenkomst met de aardappelvirussen S en M uit de aardappelvirus-S-groep. Het virus uit passiebloem komt echter in veel grotere opeenhopingen voor. Toch vormt het inChenopodium quinoa geen lichtmicroscopisch zichtbare celinsluitsels, zoals het verwante nerfmozaïekvirus van rode klaver doet. De bij het latentePassiflora-virus aangetroffen protoplasmastrengen met overdwars liggende virusbundels zijn tot dusver uniek.     

A general model of plant-virus disease infection incorporating vector aggregation

In plant-virus disease epidemiology, dynamical models have invariably incorporated a bilinear inoculation rate that is directly proportional to both the abundance of healthy (susceptible) hosts and the abundance of infective vectors. Similarly, the acquisition rate is usually assumed to be directly proportional to the abundance of nonviruliferous vectors and that of infectious hosts. These bilinear assumptions have been questioned for certain human diseases, and infection rates that incorporate power parameters of the variables have been proposed. Here, infection rates for plant-virus diseases that are of a more general form than the familiar bilinear terms are examined. For such diseases, the power parameter can be regarded as a measure of the spatial aggregation of the vectors or as a coefficient of interference between them, depending on the context.
Field data of cassava mosaic virus disease (CMD) incidence were examined. When vector population density and disease incidence were high, disease progress curves over the first 6 months from planting could not be explained using models with bilinear infection rates. Incorporation of the new infection terms allowed the range of observed disease progress curve types to be described. New evidence of a mutually beneficial interaction between the viruses causing CMD and the whitefly vector, Bemisia tabaci , has shown that spatial aggregation of the vectors is an inevitable consequence of infection, particularly with a severe virus strain or a sensitive host. Virus infection increases both vector fecundity and the density of vectors on diseased plants. It is postulated that this enhances disease spread by causing an increased emigration rate of infective vectors to other crops. Paradoxically, within the infected crop, vector aggregation reduces the effective contact rate between vector and host and therefore the predicted disease incidence is less than when a bilinear contact rate is used.     

Selection and use of a mathematical model to evaluate components of resistance to Phytophthora infestans in potato

Five models of general epidemics, spatially homogeneous, were all shown to fit well to disease progress data forPhytophthora infestans on a susceptible potato cultivar. The models were: the logistic equation, the paralogistic or Vanderplank equation, two models from medical epidemiology with similar complexity, and a slightly more complex model with explicit treatment of lesion expansion. The use of the models for analysing the sensitivity of disease progress to changes in resistance components is discussed. Sensitivity analysis of the most complex model, by varying components within their range of genetic variation, indicates lesion expansion and infection efficiency as the components offering the best perspectives for resistance breeding. Improving two components simultaneously reduces disease progress slightly more than additively, but not enough to add other components to the list of breeding objectives. Pitfalls in using models for component sensitivity analysis, in the form of erroneous model initializations, are discussed, including implications for the role of components in the development of natural epidemics and in resistance breeding trials.     

Studies onBotrytis cinerea in tomatoes mycelial development in plants growing in soil with various nutrient levels,as well as in internodes of different age

Stems and petioles of tomatoes growing in soils with different amounts of N, P, K, Mg and CaCO₃, were wound-inoculated. Only N consistently affected lesion development. Increasing the amounts of N progressively decreased the rates at which lesions developed linearly, the effects being relatively larger on the development of stem lesions than on that of petiole lesions. In pot experiments with three levels of nitrogen and three of potassium, a higher nitrogen level also resulted in a slower mycelial extension in stems of plants growing in this soil. With a certain N level, a higher K level decreased the rates at which lesions developed, this N/K interaction being significant in two series. By inoculating stems at many sites, lesions were found to develop more rapidly in young tissues, near main-stem apices, than in old tissues at the base of stems.Samenvatting Tomateplanten, groeiend in grond met verschillende hoeveelhden meststoffen, werden in bladstelen en stengels geïnoculeerd met een zeven tot tien dagen oude cultuur vanB. cinerea, groeiend op gewijzigde Richard's agar bij 23°C. Een stukje agar met mycelium, ca. 16 mm² groot, werd met behulp van Sellotape in kleine wonden in het schorsparenchym gebracht; na drie dagen werd het Sellotape verwijderd en daarna werd de uitbreiding van de lesie dagelijks gemeten. De uitkomsten werden omgewerkt tot regressiecoëfficiënten; de regressiecoëfficiënt komt overeen met de uitbreiding der lesies per etmaal.De eerste proeven werden in het voorjaar en in de zomer van 1964 tijdens een verblijf van zes maanden op het Glasshouse Crops Research Institute, Littlehampton, Engeland, genomen. Aanvankelijk werden inoculaties uitgevoerd met planten, groeiend in grond afkomstig uit het bemestingswarenhuis (tabel 1), naderhand met planten groeiend in grond met verschillende stikstof-en kaliumniveaus (tabel 2).De inoculatieproeven met bladstelen wijzen op een negatieve correlatie tussen het stikstofgehalte van de grond en de uitbreiding der lesies (tabel 3). In proeven met stengelinoculaties, uitgevoerd in het internodium boven de eerste bloemtros, bleken deze correlaties zeer betrouwbaar te zijn (tabel 4). In jonge internodiën van deze planten waren deze verschillen in lesie-uitbreiding geringer, maar toch betrouwbaar; in oude internodiën was de invloed van de stikstofbemesting op de uitbreiding der lesies in de stengel niet merkbaar (tabel 5).Ook de inoculatieproeven in stengels van planten, groeiend in grond met verschillende stikstof- en kaliumniveaus, gaven duidelijk de invloed van de stikstofbemesting aan (tabel 6). In twee proefseries had een hogere kaliumbemesting een remmende invloed op de uitbreiding der lesies in de planten (tabel 6, 1 en 2), in serie 4 was dit alleen het geval bij het hoge stikstofniveau.In de periode van november 1964 tot maart 1965 werden dergelijke proeven genomen op het Proefstation te Naaldwijk. De inoculatieproeven, uitgevoerd in december, wijzen eveneens op de mindere uitbreiding der lesies in planten groeiend in grond met een hoog stikstofniveau, maar de verschillen zijn niet betrouwbaar. Als gevolg van de voor tomateplanten slechte uitwendige omstandigheden in deze periode, was er ook weinig verschil in ontwikkeling van de planten, ondanks de verschillen in bemesting. In de proeven, genomen in februari, was het effect van de stikstofbemesting op de uitbreiding der lesies wel betrouwbaar. De verschillen in vegetatieve ontwikkeling der planten door de diverse bemestingsniveaus traden toen ook duidelijker naar voren (tabel 7).Uit de inoculatieproeven, waarbij verschillende internodiën van één plant op hetzelfde tijdstip werden geïnoculeerd, blijkt dat de leeftijd van het internodium grote invloed heeft op de uitbreiding der lesies (tabel 8). Zoals blijkt uit de resultaten, weergegeven in tabel 5, is de invloed van de leeftijd van het stengelweefsel op de uitbreiding der lesies groter dan die van de stikstofbemesting. Een en ander staat misschien in verband met de beschikbare suikers en met het drogestofgehalte van het stengelweefsel.     

A dynamic model forecasting infection of pear leaves by conidia of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Venturia nashicola</Emphasis> and its evaluation in unsprayed orchards

A dynamic model, called VenInf, was developed to forecast infection of pear leaves by conidia of Venturia nashicola. By simulating conidial infection processes following a rain event, the model estimates % conidia that successfully infected leaves at the end of an infection period. The model is mainly derived from logistic models developed from recent laboratory and glasshouse experimental results on infection of pear seedlings to estimate the rates of infection and mortality. It simulates the conidial infection process at 5 min intervals using temperature, relative humidity (RH), surface wetness and rainfall as input. The model was evaluated against pear scab in four unsprayed orchards in China over a 4-year period. In all orchards, all significant disease increases were associated with infection periods predicted by the model. In one orchard, in 2004 the incidence of leaf infection remained very low (<3%) during the entire season despite the model forecasting several severe infection periods. Results of orchard evaluation suggest that the model is able to identify all important potential infection periods. Thus, further field studies should be carried out to determine whether and how the model can be used in practice to assist farmers in making decisions on fungicide applications.     

Real-time PCR quantification of latent infection of wheat powdery mildew in the field

Wheat powdery mildew, caused by the fungal pathogen Blumeria graminis f. sp. tritici (Bgt), is a destructive wheat disease worldwide. The key issue for the disease forecast is to timely and accurately estimate and quantify the latent infection levels in volunteer seedlings where the pathogen over-winters or over-summers to serve as sources of initial inoculum of epidemics. To improve the conventional method, a real-time PCR assay had been established in this study to quantify latent infection level of wheat leaves. Artificially and naturally infected leaves in wheat fields at different geographical locations in China were collected and processed to determine the latent infection levels. Linear relationships between the molecular disease index (MDX) and the observed disease index (DX) were obtained from artificial inoculation experiments. Field experiments showed that the spatial distribution patterns of MDX matched well with those of DX in the most cases. This study demonstrated that the real-time PCR assay was a useful tool to rapidly and accurately quantify the latent infection levels of wheat powdery mildew and to efficiently estimate the initial inoculum potentials of epidemics in the fields.     

Construction and preliminary evaluation of a simulation model of the population dynamics of the potato cystnematode Globodera pallida

A model is constructed to simulate the population dynamics of the potato cyst-nematode,Globodera pallida, and its effect on the growth of the potato. Parameters and rate variables are estimated from published data, and a preliminary evaluation is performed. Despite its simplicity, the model can provide realistic predictions of the real system's behaviour: the predicted relation between initial nematode density and the annual multiplication rate, and the effect of nematode density on tuber yield, are simulated well; the effects of early harvesting are similar to those described in the literature; and the predicted seasonal changes in population structure are in reasonable agreement with field observations. The weaknesses and potentials of the model, and of the dynamic simulation approach, are discussed.Samenvatting On dit moment vindt bestrijding van het aardappelcysteaaltje,Globodera rostochiensis enG. pallida voornamelijk plaats m.b.v. nematiciden, resistente rassen en vruchtwisseling. In Nederland worden deze drie bestrijdingswijzen gecombineerd in een stelsel van strakke voorschriften die wettelijk zijn vastgelegd. Problemen met resistentie en teruglopende effectiviteit in de bestrijding maken de ontwikkeling van een flexibele aanpak noodzakelijk. Teneinde deze regeling te ontwikkelen is het nodig te beschikken over een inzicht in de populatiedynamica van het aardappelcysteaaltje en de gevolgen van hoge dichtheden voor de opbrengst. Op grond van literatuurgegevens en niet gepubliceerde experimentele gegevens van diverse onderzoekers is een model geconstrueerd waarmee het populatieverloop kan worden berekend en waarmee de schade aan het gewas kan worden geschat.Vele relaties in dit model berusten op voorlopige schattingen, omdat nadere kwantitatieve gegevens ontbreken. Niettemin zijn de uitkomsten van het eenvoudige model zodanig, dat voorspellingen met het model mogelijk lijken. Zowel de relatie tussen initiële nematodendichtheid en de jaarlijkse vermenigvuldigingssnelheid, als het effect van de nematodendichtheid op de knolopbrengst worden goed gesimuleerd. Ook het effect van vroeg oogsten en de veranderingen in aantallen gedurende het seizoen worden goed gesimuleerd.Hoewel het model redelijke uitkomsten geeft en daarmee bruikbaar lijkt voor voorspelling en gevoeligheidsanalyse zijn er nog een aantal punten die verbetering behoeven. Zo dient het groeimodel voor de aardappel te worden aangevuld met een waterbalans, opdat situaties waarin watertekort optreedt goed kunnen worden behandeld. Voorts dient nauwkeuriger informatie over de fysiologische effecten van de nematoden op wortelactiviteit te worden geïntroduceerd. Deze verbeteringen vergen een goede synthese tussen voortgaande modelbouw en experimenteel werk. De resultaten van het nu geconstrueerde model tonen reeds aan hoe vruchtbaar deze samenwerking kan zijn.     

Epidemiology in mixed host populations

ABSTRACT Although plant disease epidemiology has focused on populations in which all host plants have the same genotype, mixtures of host genotypes are more typical of natural populations and offer promising options for deployment of resistance genes in agriculture. In this review, we discuss Leonard's classic model of the effects of host genotype diversity on disease and its predictions of disease level based on the proportion of susceptible host tissue. As a refinement to Leonard's model, the spatial structure of host and pathogen population can be taken into account by considering factors such as autoinfection, interaction between host size and pathogen dispersal gradients, lesion expansion, and host carrying capacity for disease. The genetic composition of the host population also can be taken into account by considering differences in race-specific resistance among host genotypes, compensation, plant competition, and competitive interactions among pathogen genotypes. The magnitude of host-diversity effects for particular host-pathogen systems can be predicted by considering how the inherent characteristics of a system causes it to differ from the assumptions of the classic model. Because of the limited number of studies comparing host-diversity effects in different systems, it is difficult at this point to make more than qualitative predictions. Environmental conditions and management decisions also influence host-diversity effects on disease through their effect on factors such as host density and epidemic length and intensity.