Exploring simple ecological indicators on landings and market trends in the South Brazil Shelf Large Marine Ecosystem

Simple ecological indicators were applied to landings and market data from the South Brazil Shelf Large Marine Ecosystem to investigate pressures on the ecosystem over time to contribute to fisheries and ocean assessments in data‐poor ecosystems. The indicators showed an increase in larger, long‐lived and piscivorous pelagic species landings as well as an increase in offshore fishing over the past few decades. Indicators based on market data showed a decrease of not only the target species but also of some long‐lived and large‐size coastal species, resulting in an increase of previously undesired fish species in the markets. Each of the selected indicators expressed part of the picture, while putting all together resulted in a more comprehensive view of the historical behaviour of this system.     

Multi-decadal scale variability in the eastern Baltic cod fishery 1550–1860—Evidence and causes

Identification of periods of high and low cod production, and the reasons for these periods, can increase understanding of variability in populations and ecosystems. In this study we investigate the multi-decadal and multi-century scale variations in the cod population in the eastern Baltic Sea (ICES Subdivisions 25–32). Analytically derived estimates of biomass are available since 1966. These estimates show that biomass increased in the late 1970s–early 1980s, but decreased nearly 10-fold until the early 1990s and is still well below the long-term average. Prior to 1966 the biomass of cod is unknown, as is the relative role of fishing, climate variability/regimes, eutrophication and reduction of marine mammal predator populations. We have begun to investigate whether historical fisheries information (landings, effort, distribution) from before the 1880s is available in Baltic archives and museums, and to what extent this information can be used to interpret variations in this population. We have located fisheries data for different parts of the Baltic for different time periods since the 1550s and have interpreted the findings using current process knowledge of oceanographic mechanisms affecting cod reproduction and ecology in the Baltic Sea. The recovered data show that the Baltic ecosystem was able to support modest-large cod populations even though it was oligotrophic and contained large populations of cod predators (e.g., marine mammals). Current ecosystem management policy in the Baltic as developed and implemented by organisations such as the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES), the Baltic Marine Environment Protection Commission (HELCOM), the nine coastal countries and the European Union includes recovery of the cod population, a reduction in nutrient loading and measures to promote recovery of seal and harbour porpoise populations. If these policies are successful, the role of predatory fish in the future Baltic could again be substantial and comparable to that which we show existed 450 years ago. However, such a scenario will also require a major reduction in cod fishing mortality and suitable hydrographic conditions which promote successful cod reproduction. Historical ecology investigations in the Baltic can contribute to scientifically based fishery and ecosystem management and recovery plans.     

Population trends of bycatch species reflect improving status of target species

Synthesis studies of fish stocks worldwide suggest improving status of mainly target species that are fully assessed. Other analyses, primarily based on catch data alone, but which include a wider range of species as well as bycatch, present a different view. Catch‐only analyses could be more robust if fishery‐independent data were used and discards accounted for. We develop a model that uses only survey biomass at length and landings data to estimate fishing mortality, spawning stock biomass (SSB) and discards. An analysis of species from the North Sea shows the model results compare well with most fully assessed stocks. When applied to bycatch species with limited data, trends in fishing mortality and SSB typically reflect those of the target species. In the last decade, mean fishing mortality rates have tended to decline, while mean SSB has increased. Despite increasing SSB, recent mean recruitment appears to have been lower than previously which may limit future biomass recovery. Species usually associated with more northerly distributions appear to show the greatest effect of weaker recruitment, which may be linked to climate. Estimated discards have tended to decline in magnitude as a result of reduced fishing mortality and associated lower total catches. The model offers a simple way to use both landings and survey data to obtain more detailed population trends for data limited species.     

How to provide scientific advice for ecosystem‐based management now

In this paper, I argue that we have at hand what is needed to provide scientific advice for ecosystem‐based management of small pelagics and other species groups now. The ingredients for this advice are (i) large marine ecosystems as spatial management units; (ii) maintaining ecosystem productivity and exploiting at multispecies maximum yield as overarching management objectives; (iii) assessment of ecosystems by evaluating changes in primary productivity; (iv) an operational management procedure in which single‐species catch proposals are adjusted to ecosystem productivity using a set of control rules. Inspection of historic landings for small pelagics and other small species in the Northeast Atlantic (ICES area) reveals that most likely fisheries exploitation does not, and never did, exceed system productivity in most LMEs and is therefore overall sustainable, although not necessarily for individual stocks.     

Assessing the state of Greek marine fisheries resources

Annual fish landings for the Greek seas were analysed for the period 1982–2007 and classified into exploitation categories based on a catch‐based stock classification method. In 2007, about 65% of the Greek stock were characterised as overfished, 32% as fully exploited and only 3% were characterised as developing; collapsed stocks were not recorded. The cumulative percentage of fully exploited and overfished stocks has been increasing over the past 20 years suggesting overexploitation of resources. The results were contrasted against total landings, the fishing‐in‐balance index (FiB) and fishing effort, and some irregularities on the dataset were explained based on current legislation and management measures. A positive correlation between FiB and total fishing effort confirmed the expansion of the Greek fisheries up to 1994, but contraction thereafter. The results suggest that the apparently stable overall catches and decreasing effort may be deceiving, as they hide an underlying pattern of overexploitation in some of the stocks. It was concluded that the Greek fisheries are no longer sustainable and radical management measures are needed.     

Present state and perspectives for the southern Brazil shelf demersal fisheries

The demersal fish stocks in southern Brazil were assessed from landings and catchper-unit effort data trends between 1975 and 1994, available information on the life history patterns, and population dynamics of the most important species. The fishing gears, mostly otter and pair bottom trawls in the 1970s, diversified towards double-rig trawls for fish and shrimp and bottom gill nets in the mid 1980s, and bottom longlines in the upper slope in the early 1990s. There were also some less successful attempts with traps for fish and crabs. The demersal fisheries are more intensive in winter when migratory species move northward, associated with the seasonal displacement of the western boundary of the Subtropical Convergence. Landings between 1975 and 1994 were mostly of sciaenid fishes (>70%) and elasmobranchs (10%) and oscillated around 59 000 t. There was not a decrease in total landings but a shift from more to less exploited stocks. Since 1989, 4% of the landings came from depleted stocks of Pagrus pagrus (L.), Netuma barba (Lacépède), Pogonias cromis (L.) and Rhinobatos horkelli (Muller & Henle); 37% from overexploited stocks: Micropogonias furnieri (Desmarest), Paralichthys patagonicus Jordan, Squatina guggenheim Marini, and Galeorhinus galeus (L.); 24% from heavily exploited stocks of Umbrina canosai Berg, and Macrodon ancylodon (Bloch & Schneider); and 35% of Cynoscion guatucupa (Cuvier) and small stocks with unclear status. The demersal fisheries are virtually unmanaged and future landings are expected to decrease if fishing pressure remains high. Effective management will require the participation of all three countries in the region because most of the stocks fished in southern Brazil are shared with Uruguay and Argentina.     

Is fisheries production within Large Marine Ecosystems determined by bottom‐up or top‐down forcing?

Understanding the mechanisms driving fisheries production is essential if we are to accurately predict changes under climate change and exploit fish stocks in a sustainable manner. Traditionally, studies have sought to distinguish between the two most prominent drivers, ‘bottom‐up’ (resource driven) and ‘top‐down’ (consumer driven); however, this dichotomy is increasingly proving to be artificial as the relative importance of each mechanism has been shown to vary through space and time. Nevertheless, the reason why one predominates over another within a region remains largely unknown. To address this gap in understanding, we identified the dominant driver of commercial landings within 47 ecosystems, encompassing a wide range of biogeochemical conditions and fishing practices to elucidate general patterns. We show that bottom‐up and top‐down effects vary consistently with past fishing pressure and oceanographic conditions; bottom‐up control predominates within productive, overfished regions and top‐down in relatively unproductive and under‐exploited areas. We attribute these findings to differences in the species composition and oceanographic properties of regions, together with variation in fishing practices and (indicative) management effectiveness. Collectively, our analyses suggest that despite the complexity of ecological systems, it is possible to elucidate a number of generalities. Such knowledge could be used to increase the parsimony of ecosystem models and to move a step forward in predicting how the global ocean, particularly fisheries productivity, will respond to climate change.     

Efficiency of fisheries is increasing at the ecosystem level

Managing fisheries presents trade‐offs between objectives, for example yields, profits, minimizing ecosystem impact, that have to be weighed against one another. These trade‐offs are compounded by interacting species and fisheries at the ecosystem level. Weighing objectives becomes increasingly challenging when managers have to consider opposing objectives from different stakeholders. An alternative to weighing incomparable and conflicting objectives is to focus on win–wins until Pareto efficiency is achieved: a state from which it is impossible to improve with respect to any objective without regressing at least one other. We investigate the ecosystem‐level efficiency of fisheries in five large marine ecosystems (LMEs) with respect to yield and an aggregate measure of ecosystem impact using a novel calibration of size‐based ecosystem models. We estimate that fishing patterns in three LMEs (North Sea, Barents Sea and Benguela Current) are nearly efficient with respect to long‐term yield and ecosystem impact and that efficiency has improved over the last 30 years. In two LMEs (Baltic Sea and North East US Continental Shelf), fishing is inefficient and win–wins remain available. We additionally examine the efficiency of North Sea and Baltic Sea fisheries with respect to economic rent and ecosystem impact, finding both to be inefficient but steadily improving. Our results suggest the following: (i) a broad and encouraging trend towards ecosystem‐level efficiency of fisheries; (ii) that ecosystem‐scale win–wins, especially with respect to conservation and profits, may still be common; and (iii) single‐species assessment approaches may overestimate the availability of win–wins by failing to account for trade‐offs across interacting species.     

Why have global shark and ray landings declined: improved management or overfishing?

Global chondrichthyan (shark, ray, skate and chimaera) landings, reported to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), peaked in 2003 and in the decade since have declined by almost 20%. In the FAO's 2012 ‘State of the World's Fisheries and Aquaculture’ report, the authors ‘hoped’ the reductions in landings were partially due to management implementation rather than population decline. Here, we tested their hypothesis. Post‐peak chondrichthyan landings trajectories from 126 countries were modelled against seven indirect and direct fishing pressure measures and eleven measures of fisheries management performance, while accounting for ecosystem attributes. We found the recent improvement in international or national fisheries management was not yet strong enough to account for the recent decline in chondrichthyan landings. Instead, the landings declines were more closely related to fishing pressure and ecosystem attribute measures. Countries with the greatest declines had high human coastal population sizes or high shark and ray meat exports such as Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Thailand. While important progress had been made, country‐level fisheries management measures did not yet have the strength or coverage to halt overfishing and avert population declines of chondrichthyans. Increased implementation of legally binding operational fisheries management and species‐specific reporting is urgently required to avoid declines and ensure fisheries sustainability and food security.     

Multi‐decadal climate and fishing predictors of abundance for U.S. South Atlantic coastal fishes and invertebrates

Abundance of marine stocks fluctuates in response to both internal processes (e.g., density dependence) and exogenous drivers, including the physical environment, fishing, and trophodynamic interactions. In the United States, research investigating ecosystem drivers has been focused in data‐rich systems, primarily in the North Atlantic and North Pacific. To develop a more holistic understanding of important ecosystem drivers in the Southeast U.S. continental shelf Large Marine Ecosystem, we applied generalized linear and dynamic linear modeling to investigate the effects of climate and fishing covariates on the relative abundance trends of 71 demersal fish and invertebrate species sampled by a coastal trawl survey during 1990–2013. For the assemblage as a whole, fishing effects predominated over climate effects. In particular, changes in trawling effort within the penaeid shrimp fishery governed abundance trends of bony fishes, invertebrates, and elasmobranchs, a likely result of temporal changes in bycatch mortality. Changes in trawling intensity induced changes in overall community composition and appear to have altered trophic interactions among particular species. Among climate indices investigated, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the Western Bermuda High Index were most prevalent in well‐supported dynamic linear models. Observed annual abundance trends were synchronous among some taxonomically related species, highlighting similar responses to exogenous influences based on life history. This study strengthens the foundation for generating hypotheses and advancing ecosystem‐based fisheries research within the region.     

Strong fisheries management and governance positively impact ecosystem status

Fisheries have had major negative impacts on marine ecosystems, and effective fisheries management and governance are needed to achieve sustainable fisheries, biodiversity conservation goals and thus good ecosystem status. To date, the IndiSeas programme (Indicators for the Seas) has focussed on assessing the ecological impacts of fishing at the ecosystem scale using ecological indicators. Here, we explore fisheries ‘Management Effectiveness’ and ‘Governance Quality’ and relate this to ecosystem health and status. We developed a dedicated expert survey, focused at the ecosystem level, with a series of questions addressing aspects of management and governance, from an ecosystem‐based perspective, using objective and evidence‐based criteria. The survey was completed by ecosystem experts (managers and scientists) and results analysed using ranking and multivariate methods. Results were further examined for selected ecosystems, using expert knowledge, to explore the overall findings in greater depth. Higher scores for ‘Management Effectiveness’ and ‘Governance Quality’ were significantly and positively related to ecosystems with better ecological status. Key factors that point to success in delivering fisheries and conservation objectives were as follows: the use of reference points for management, frequent review of stock assessments, whether Illegal, Unreported and Unregulated (IUU) catches were being accounted for and addressed, and the inclusion of stakeholders. Additionally, we found that the implementation of a long‐term management plan, including economic and social dimensions of fisheries in exploited ecosystems, was a key factor in successful, sustainable fisheries management. Our results support the thesis that good ecosystem‐based management and governance, sustainable fisheries and healthy ecosystems go together.     

Reference points for predators will progress ecosystem‐based management of fisheries

Ecosystem‐based management of fisheries aims to allow sustainable use of fished stocks while keeping impacts upon ecosystems within safe ecological limits. Both the FAO Code of Conduct for Responsible Fisheries and the Aichi Biodiversity Targets promote these aims. We evaluate implementation of ecosystem‐based management in six case‐study fisheries in which potential indirect impacts upon bird or mammal predators of fished stocks are well publicized and well studied. In particular, we consider the components needed to enable management strategies to respond to information from predator monitoring. Although such information is available in all case‐studies, only one has a reference point defining safe ecological limits for predators and none has a method to adjust fishing activities in response to estimates of the state of the predator population. Reference points for predators have been developed outside the fisheries management context, but adoption by fisheries managers is hindered a lack of clarity about management objectives and uncertainty about how fishing affects predator dynamics. This also hinders the development of adjustment methods because these generally require information on the state of ecosystem variables relative to reference points. Nonetheless, most of the case‐studies include precautionary measures to limit impacts on predators. These measures are not used tactically and therefore risk excessive restrictions on sustainable use. Adoption of predator reference points to inform tactical adjustment of precautionary measures would be an appropriate next step towards ecosystem‐based management.     

Rebuilding Mediterranean fisheries: a new paradigm for ecological sustainability

In Mediterranean European countries, 85% of the assessed stocks are currently overfished compared to a maximum sustainable yield reference value (MSY) while populations of many commercial species are characterized by truncated size‐ and age‐structures. Rebuilding the size‐ and age‐structure of exploited populations is a management objective that combines single species targets such as MSY with specific goals of the ecosystem approach to fisheries management (EAF), preserving community size‐structure and the ecological role of different species. Here, we show that under the current fishing regime, stock productivity and fleet profitability are generally impaired by a combination of high fishing mortality and inadequate selectivity patterns. For most of the stocks analysed, a simple reduction in the current fishing mortality (F_cur) towards an MSY reference value (F_MSY), without any change in the fishing selectivity, will allow neither stock biomass nor fisheries yield and revenue to be maximized. On the contrary, management targets can be achieved only through a radical change in fisheries selectivity. Shifting the size of first capture towards the size at which fish cohorts achieve their maximum biomass, the so‐called optimal length, would produce on average between two and three times higher economic yields and much higher biomass at sea for the exploited stocks. Moreover, it would contribute to restore marine ecosystem structure and resilience to enhance ecosystem services such as reservoirs of biodiversity and functioning food webs.     

Shifting trophic architecture of marine fisheries in New Zealand: Implications for guiding effective ecosystem‐based management

New Zealand has led the world in restoration of marine fisheries since the introduction of the Quota Management System in 1986, but challenges remain in minimizing the ecosystem‐level effects of industrialized fishing. We analysed existing long‐term fisheries data sets from 1931 to 2015 in New Zealand to resolve trends in important ecological properties of major exploited fish communities. Increases in community dissimilarities of catch composition in 1931 and 1972, followed by increasing total landings, highlight major expansions of fishing grounds and exploited species during these periods. Mirroring global patterns, the remarkable rise in fishing power, demand and generation of new markets in New Zealand have all contributed to this expansion. Marine Trophic Indices (MTIs) of landings have decreased together with total catch after the year 2000, reflecting smaller catches with a higher composition of lower trophic‐level species in recent years. Differences in relative abundance of species estimated between fisheries‐dependent and fisheries‐independent data were observed, where high‐value species displayed better agreement in relative abundance between data sets. Despite being under a Quota Management System, temporal development of MTI values relative to the timing of industrial expansion of fisheries was remarkably similar to those observed in the North Sea and Brazil, with a single expansion and decline. MTI values presented better long‐term stability in the US fisheries analysed. Analysis of long‐term data and the development of well‐resolved ecological baselines will be the first step towards applying EBM to New Zealand fisheries, in keeping with global trends in fisheries management.     

Mapping global fisheries: sharpening our focus

Mapping global landings is an important prerequisite for examining causal relationships between fishing and ecological change. Landing statistics, typically provided with poor spatial precision, can be disaggregated into a grid system of spatial cells (30 min ×30 min) using a rule‐based approach and ancillary data about distributions of fished taxa and fishing access of reporting countries. Presentation of time series catch composition is then possible for many types of marine areas including biogeochemical provinces, large marine ecosystems and exclusive economic zones.     

A tale of two seas: a meta‐analysis of crustacean stocks in the NE Atlantic and the Mediterranean Sea

Meta‐analysis of marine biological resources can elucidate general trends and patterns to inform scientists and improve management. Crustacean stocks are indispensable for European and global fisheries; however, studies of their aggregate development have been rare and confined to smaller spatial and temporal scales compared to fish stocks. Here, we study the aggregate development of 63 NE Atlantic and Mediterranean crustacean stocks of six species (Nephrops norvegicus, Pandalus borealis, Parapenaeus longirostris, Aristeus antennatus, Aristaeomorpha foliacea and Squilla mantis) in 1990–2013 using biomass index data from official stock assessments. We implemented a dynamic factor analysis (DFA) to identify common underlying trends in biomass indices and investigate the correlation with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. The analysis revealed increasing and decreasing trends in the northern and southern NE Atlantic, respectively, and stable or slowly increasing trends in the Mediterranean, which were not related to NAO. A separate meta‐analysis of the fishing mortality (F) and biomass (B) of 39 analytically assessed crustacean stocks was also carried out to explore their development relative to MSY. NE Atlantic crustacean stocks have been exploited on average close to F_MSY and remained well above B_MSY in 1995–2013, while Mediterranean stocks have been exploited 2–4 times above F_MSY in 2002–2012. Aggregate trends of European crustacean stocks are somewhat opposite to trends of fish stocks, suggesting possible cascading effects. This study highlights the two‐speed fisheries management performance in the northern and southern European seas, despite most stocks being managed in the context of the European Union's Common Fisheries Policy.     

Indicators of unsustainable fishery in the Middle Danube

Fishery in the Danube River basin has been characterised over the past century by increasing fishing levels, illegal fishing practices and poor regulations. However, there is a remarkable lack of available information on the actual status of fish stocks, as well as on the trends and sustainability of fisheries, which poses a problem for the development of adequate policy and management measures. In this study, we assessed the trends in the commercial fishery in the Middle Danube in Serbia during 1969–1989 and 2006–2010 by evaluating the temporal changes in life history‐related indicators that might point out unsustainable fishing pressures. Moreover, we present the approach of using the catch‐weighted mean egg‐per‐recruit (EPR) index as a proxy for the overall resilience of fish stocks to fishing. Results indicated a marked shift towards smaller fish that mature earlier and have a shorter lifespan. Landings also shifted towards species at lower trophic levels, with a mean trophic level decline at a rate of approximately 0.16 per decade. Results indicated likely presence of the ‘fishing through the food web’ phenomenon. At the same time, catch‐weighted community mean of the 20% EPR threshold ratio (EPR_20%) increased by 4.2%, indicating the increase of the overall resilience to fishing of the exploited species. Obtained results indicated the importance of using such metrics for the assessments of trends in fishery. The approach and results presented here could be of interest for the scientific community and stakeholders involved in fishery management.     

Describing ecosystem contexts with single‐species models: a theoretical synthesis for fisheries

Fished populations exist within complex ecosystems but are typically assessed using single‐species models. It is often lamented that stock assessments rarely account for other ecosystem components explicitly, but in most fisheries there are clear difficulties in implementing data‐intensive ecosystem‐based assessment approaches. Addressing these competing challenges requires prioritizing investments in expanded assessment frameworks. To provide high‐level conceptual guidance to such prioritization, here we use general analytical theory to identify (i) characteristics of fish stocks that tend to facilitate or inhibit the precision and accuracy of reference points from single‐species assessments, (ii) characteristics of ecosystem components that introduce the greatest bias/imprecision into single‐species reference points and (iii) warning signs within single‐species frameworks that important ecosystem components may not be adequately accounted for. We synthesize and expand on theories from various branches of applied mathematics addressing analogous questions. Our theory suggests that (i) slow population dynamics (relative to the dynamics of other ecosystem components) and a wide range of abundance observations promote precision and accuracy of single‐species reference points; (ii) ecosystem components that strongly influence the focal stock's growth, and change on similar timescales as the focal stock's abundance, introduce the greatest bias/imprecision to single‐species reference points; and (iii) signs of potential challenges for single‐species assessment include fast population dynamics, ‘hydra effects’ (i.e. abundance and fishing pressure simultaneously increase), and recently detected extinctions, invasions or regime shifts in closely connected ecosystem components. Our results generalize to other levels of abstraction and provide strategic insights complementing tactical simulation approaches such as management strategy evaluation.     

Indicators to support an ecosystem approach to fisheries

Indicators are needed to support the implementation of an ecosystem approach to fisheries (EAF), by providing information on the state of the ecosystem, the extent and intensity of effort or mortality and the progress of management in relation to objectives. Here, I review recent work on the development, selection and application of indicators and consider how indicators might support an EAF. Indicators should guide the management of fishing activities that have led to, or are most likely to lead to, unsustainable impacts on ecosystem components or attributes. The numbers and types of indicators used to support an EAF will vary among management regions, depending on resources available for monitoring and enforcement, and actual and potential fishing impacts. State indicators provide feedback on the state of ecosystem components or attributes and the extent to which management objectives, which usually relate to state, are met. State can only be managed if the relationships with fishing (pressure) and management (response) are known. Predicting such relationships is fundamental to developing a management system that supports the achievement of objectives. In a management framework supported by pressure, state and response indicators, the relationship between the value of an indicator and a target or limit reference point, reference trajectory or direction provides guidance on the management action to take. Values of pressure, state and response indicators may be affected by measurement, process, model and estimation error and thus different indicators, and the same indicators measured at different scales and in different ways, will detect true trends on different timescales. Managers can use several methods to estimate the effects of error on the probability of detecting true trends and/or to account for error when setting reference points, trajectories and directions. Given the high noise to signal ratio in many state indicators, pressure and response indicators would often guide short‐term management decision making more effectively, with state indicators providing longer‐term policy‐focused feedback on the effects of management action.