Road crossing structures for amphibians and reptiles: Informing design through behavioral analysis

Road traffic causes significant amphibian and reptile mortality, which could be mitigated through the installation of road crossing structures that facilitate safe passage, but only if reptiles and amphibians are willing to use them. Through a series of behavioral choice experiments with frogs and turtles, we examined how aperture diameter, substrate type, length, and light permeability influenced individuals’ preferences for specific attributes of crossing structures, and how individuals responded to various heights of barrier fences. Snapping turtles (Chelydra serpentina), green frogs (Rana clamitans), and leopard frogs (Rana pipiens) preferred larger diameter tunnels (>0.5 m) whereas painted turtles (Chrysemys picta) preferred tunnels of intermediate (0.5-0.6 m) diameter. Green frogs preferred soil- and gravel-lined tunnels to concrete- and PVC-lined tunnels. Painted turtles showed non-random choice of different lengths of tunnel, possibly indicating some avoidance of the longest tunnel (9.1 m); although no species preferred to exit via the longest tunnels (9.1 m), members of all four species used such tunnels. Green frogs preferred tunnels with the greatest light permeability. Fences 0.6 m in height were effective barriers to green frogs, leopard frogs, and snapping turtles, whereas 0.3 m fences excluded painted turtles. We conclude that tunnels > 0.5 m in diameter lined with soil or gravel and accompanied by 0.6-0.9 m high guide fencing would best facilitate road crossing for these and likely other frog and turtle species.     

Beyond the wetland border: Estimating the impact of roads for two species of water snakes

We used models integrating road maps, traffic volume, and snake movements to examine the potential for roads to contribute to mortality in two species of water snakes that differ in their vagility, use of terrestrial habitats, and conservation status. Road networks and traffic volumes typical of three regions in Indiana, USA, may account for mortality of 14-21% of the population per year in the more vagile, terrestrial, and imperiled copperbelly water snake (Nerodia erythrogaster neglecta) but only 3-5% mortality in the more sedentary, aquatic, and common northern water snake (Nerodia sipedon). The majority (>91%) of road crossings and associated mortality are predicted to occur during overland migrations to other wetlands, suggesting roads bisecting travel routes between wetlands may function as mortality sinks. Our models highlight the proportionately greater risk of mortality for the more vagile and imperiled species, N. e. neglecta, and suggest current wetland conservation strategies that focus on the wetland alone are unlikely to adequately protect wetland biodiversity from certain types of anthropogenic habitat modification. What is needed is a landscape approach to wetland conservation that considers not only the quality of wetlands and nearby terrestrial habitats, but also ensures that terrestrial corridors between wetlands remain permeable and offer safe passage for wildlife.     

Survival of the western pond turtle (Emys marmorata) in an urban California environment

The western pond turtle Emys (formerly Clemmys) marmorata is declining throughout its range, primarily due to loss of habitat via urbanization and conversion to agriculture. Urban waterways present several important challenges to freshwater turtle populations, but they also present an opportunity to maintain declining species in a ubiquitous habitat that has high public visibility. The arboretum waterway on the University of California, Davis campus is an example of an extensively altered urban habitat that supports a relatively large E. marmorata population. Over the last 6 years, we monitored the turtle population inhabiting the arboretum waterway to determine the demographic health of the population, and the challenges and opportunities that urban environments pose for pond turtles. Since 1993, the naturally existing arboretum pond turtle population has declined by approximately 40% and has shown little natural recruitment. During this time, we also introduced 31 headstarted turtles into the arboretum. Headstarting is the process of raising juveniles in captivity until they have outgrown their period of greatest vulnerability to predators, and then releasing them into the wild. Our headstarting results demonstrate that this contentious strategy is a viable option for adding young turtles to the population, although it does not address the causes of decline. Over the course of our study, we encountered nine species of non-native turtles in the waterway, and these appear to be a serious threat to the native species. As more habitat becomes urbanized, it is increasingly important to understand how freshwater turtles, such as E. marmorata, adapt to urban waterways and the impact of non-native turtles on native turtle species. Our strong feeling is that urban waterways can provide habitat for viable populations of freshwater turtles and showcase them to the public, but both the aquatic and terrestrial habitat must be managed according to the biological requirements of individual species.     

Phylogenetic diversity of endangered and critically endangered southeast Asian softshell turtles (Trionychidae: Chitra)

The intense exploitation of turtles in Asian markets has contributed to declines in turtle populations across the continent. Three-quarters of Asia’s turtles are threatened and half are endangered. A recent workshop on the Asian turtle crisis identified taxonomic studies of widespread species as a priority for research because these low risk species may include unrecognized, narrowly distributed taxa of much higher concern. Chitra indica is a widely exploited softshell turtle (family Trionychidae) found across southern Asia. Individuals from Thailand have been described as a separate species, Chitra chitra, but this has not been universally accepted, and many sources consider Chitra monotypic. Phylogenetic analysis of sequence data from the mitochondrial ND4 gene revealed three deeply divergent, monophyletic lineages within Chitra: C. indica, C. chitra, and a third unnamed form from Myanmar. This new form is probably Critically Endangered, which highlights the importance of systematic studies in determining conservation priorities.     

Modelling the influence of seasonal inter-habitat movements by an ecotone rodent

I assessed the long-term effects of seasonal inter-habitat movements for a common rodent, Microtus californicus, using matrix models tailored to demographic data obtained on populations living at the marsh-grassland ecotone. Three stochastic models were used to simulate the seasonal and spatial dynamics of this system, with the purpose of determining: (1) the growth rates of populations living in single versus a two-habitat landscape; and (2) if the amount, direction, and seasonality of rodent movements between the two habitats may impact these growth rates. The results indicated that grassland populations could be self-sustaining, but that isolated marsh populations would rapidly decline. Importantly, 98% of the two-habitat simulations yielded growth rates greater than those seen in the grassland model, with populations benefiting the most by movements from marsh into grassland at the end of the dry season. This study demonstrated that movements between marsh ‘sink’ and grassland ‘source’ habitats can potentially increase long-term population growth due to seasonal, inter-habitat differences in resource availability.     

At sea movement of Macquarie Island giant petrels: Relationships with marine protected areas and Regional Fisheries Management Organisations

Satellite tracking devices were used to examine the at sea movements of southern and northern giant petrels from Macquarie Island during the Austral summers of 2005-06 and 2006-07. Time spent at sea for nine northern giant petrels (four breeding adults, five recently fledged juveniles) and 10 southern giant petrels (three breeding adults, one non-breeding adult, and six recently fledged juveniles) was examined in relation to marine protected areas and fishing activity in the area immediately adjacent to Macquarie Island in 2005-06, and in terms of the jurisdictions of Regional Fisheries Management Authorities (RFMOs) at a broader scale during both seasons. Breeding adult southern and northern giant petrels spent a large proportion of their time at sea in the Macquarie Island Marine Park (25% and 65%, respectively), primarily during chick rearing. Further from Macquarie Island, the most important foraging areas for adult giant petrels were the Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR) statistical sub-areas 58.4.1 and 88.1, where foraging activity was concentrated around the ice edge and the Polar Frontal Zone. Fledglings of both species spent time in the Marine Park immediately after fledging, before moving into international waters. We found significant temporal and spatial overlap in the areas used by recently fledged juvenile northern giant petrels and the areas utilised by the single trawler that operated in these waters during 2005-06. Adult giant petrels spent little time in RFMO waters other than those under the jurisdiction of CCAMLR, but fledgling southern and northern giant petrels spent considerable time (56% and 78% of total time at sea) on the high seas of the Pacific Ocean, in areas under the jurisdictions of the Commission for the Conservation of Southern Bluefin Tuna (CCSBT), the Western and Central Pacific Fisheries Commission (WCPFC), the Inter American Tropical Tuna Commission (IATTC) and the South Pacific Regional Fisheries Management Organisation (SPRFMO). Band returns indicate that the International Commission for the Conservation of Atlantic Tunas (ICCAT) and the South East Atlantic Fisheries Organisation (SEAFO) areas are likely to be extensively utilised by Macquarie Island giant petrels in the first three years after fledging. Overall, Macquarie Island’s giant petrel populations are well protected by marine reserves during the breeding season. However, after fledging birds move into RFMO areas that currently have low standards of observer coverage and by catch mitigation, and where fisheries related mortality is likely to pose a significant risk.     

Are roads and railroads barriers to bumblebee movement in a temperate suburban conservation area?

We investigated how habitat fragmentation affects the movement of marked bumblebees between plant patches in a temperate conservation area in metropolitan Boston, Massachusetts. Our study was conducted on populations of sweet pepperbush (Clethra alnifolia L. f.) separated by a road and natural woodland, and buttonbush (Cephalanthus occidentalis L.) separated by a railroad. Bumblebees showed high site fidelity and only rarely crossed roads or railroads. When bees captured at one sweet pepperbush population were moved across a road to a new sweet pepperbush population and released, they returned to their original site, some within 20 min of their capture. When all inflorescences were removed from one sweet pepperbush patch, most bees moved to another sweet pepperbush population on the same side of the road. The results show that while bumblebees have the ability to cross a road and railroad, these human structures may restrict bumblebee movement and act to fragment plant populations because of the innate site fidelity displayed by foraging bees. Moreover, marked bees were almost never observed to move between populations unless they were displaced, or forced to seek additional forage sites.     

Pelagic longlines: A threat to sea turtles in the Equatorial Eastern Atlantic

Pelagic longlines are widely known to interact with several species of sea turtles, and there is an increasing concern about the by-catch of turtles in commercial fisheries and its impact on their populations. However, information on sea turtle by-catch in the South Atlantic Ocean is scarce, and there are no quantitative by-catch data available on olive ridleys for the Equatorial Eastern Atlantic. In this paper we analyze data collected by observers on board an Uruguayan long-liner targeting swordfish in two areas in the Equatorial Eastern Atlantic: off the Gulf of Guinea and north of Saint Helenaa Island. Specimens of Lepidochelys olivacea and Dermochelys coriacea were hooked or entangled in 26 longline sets. All registered interactions with olive ridleys took place off the The Gulf of Guinea, with captures ranging from 1 to 3 specimens in a single set. The captured specimens, though not measured directly, appeared to be juveniles. In addition, the examination of the stomach contents of one female mako shark showed dermal scutes, vertebrae and the complete head of a sea turtle identified as L. olivacea, allowing us to estimate its curved carapace length. In contrast, adult specimens of D. coriacea were caught in the two fishing areas. The capture of 10 individuals in a single set was recorded. Due to the high rate of sea turtle by-catch observed off the The Gulf of Guinea (1.02 ind/1000 hooks) conservation programs in the area should take into consideration the possible existence of a developmental and feeding area in this zone. Accordingly, longline fisheries in this area should be monitored and mitigation measures put in place to avoid or minimize damage to the pelagic phase of African populations of sea turtles.     

The impact of pelagic longline fishing on the flesh-footed shearwater Puffinus carneipes in Eastern Australia

The flesh-footed shearwater (Puffinus carneipes) is a medium-sized seabird (ca. 700 g) that is incidentally killed during longline fishing operations. We examined the levels of bycatch in Australia’s Eastern Tuna and Billfish Fishery and developed a model to examine the impact of this fishery on the eastern Australian population of flesh-footed shearwaters, which breeds at only one site, Lord Howe Island. Observed bycatch rates for flesh-footed shearwaters were 0.378 birds/1000 hooks for night sets, and 0.945 birds/1000 hooks for day sets. The mean number of birds killed from 1998 to 2002 was estimated to be 1794-4486 birds per year, with the estimated total killed over this period ranging from 8972 to 18,490 birds. Models incorporating both density-independent and density-dependent scenarios were applied to levels of bycatch representative of that observed in the fishery. Density-independent scenarios showed that fishing mortality levels caused declines in the majority of simulated populations. In contrast, density-dependent scenarios produced populations that were more resilient to fishing mortalities. Although some modelling scenarios led to population growth, under most stochastic simulations median population halving and quasi-extinction times were less than 55 and 120 years, respectively. We conclude that the level of bycatch observed in the fishery is most likely unsustainable and threatens the survival of the Lord Howe Island population. This situation can be improved only with the development and implementation of mitigation measures that will halt or greatly reduce the level of bycatch currently observed. Improved knowledge on a range of demographic parameters for the species, combined with a clearer idea of the at-sea distribution of breeding and non-breeding shearwaters, will greatly assist in improving understanding and the management of this population.     

Species-specific barrier effects of a motorway on the habitat use of two threatened forest-living bat species

It is generally recognized that roads can adversely affect local animal populations but little is known how roads affect bats. In particular, no study compared the response of bats that differ in foraging ecology to motorways that cut through the breeding habitat. As bats are key species in conservation, such data are urgently needed for designing management plans. Using radio-telemetry, mist netting, and mark-recapture data we investigated the effects of a motorway with heavy traffic on the habitat use of two threatened forest-living bats. We compared barbastelle bats (Barbastella barbastellus), which forage in open space, to Bechstein’s bats (Myotis bechsteinii), which glean prey from the vegetation. Five of six radio-tracked barbastelle bats crossed the motorway during foraging and roost switching, flying through underpasses and directly over the motorway. In contrast, only three of 34 radio-tracked Bechstein’s bats crossed the motorway during foraging, all three using an underpass. Bechstein’s bats, unlike barbastelle bats, never crossed the motorway during roost switching. Moreover, only in Bechstein’s bats individuals foraging close to the motorway had smaller foraging areas than individuals foraging further away, whereas other forest edges had no such effect. Our data show that motorways can restrict habitat accessibility for bats but the effect seems to depend on the species’ foraging ecology and wing morphology. We suggest that motorways have stronger barrier effects on bats that forage close to surfaces than on bats that forage in open space, and discuss the implications of our findings for bat conservation during road construction.     

Geographic isolation, genetic divergence, and ecological non-exchangeability define ESUs in a threatened sky-island rattlesnake

We utilized nine microsatellite loci and 865 bases from two mtDNA genes to estimate demographic parameters and visualize historic/contemporary connectivity among populations of a sky-island rattlesnake (New Mexico ridge-nosed rattlesnake, Crotalus willardi obscurus). This taxon is listed as threatened under the United States Endangered Species Act (ESA) and is distributed patchily within three borderland mountain ranges [Animas (ANM), Peloncillo (PEL), Sierra San Luis (SSL)] of southeastern Arizona, southwestern New Mexico and north-central México. Molecular data support a hypothesis of northward range expansion from México, with subsequent isolation on sky-islands through vicariant desertification that transformed intervening wooded valleys and low elevation passes into inhospitable habitat. Historic and recent movements have been within rather than among mountains. Although populations are linked via ancestral polymorphism, they do not represent a single mtDNA gene pool. All are genetically bottlenecked, with the Peloncillo reflecting deepest/sharpest declines and fewest captures per unit effort. Most recent population declines occurred ∼4 kybp (thousands of years before present). Thus, population reductions are historic and environmental rather than contemporary and anthropogenic. Our data demonstrate that PEL is ecologically non-exchangable with other sky-island populations, and thus comprises one ‘evolutionary significant unit’ (ESU), while SSL and ANM comprise ‘management units’ (MUs) within a second ESU. All three meet legal criteria for recognition as ‘distinct population segments’ (DPS) under the ESA.     

Location of roosts of the lesser long-eared bat Nyctophilus geoffroyi and Gould's wattled bat Chalinolobus gouldii in a fragmented landscape in south-eastern Australia

The location of roosts of two species of vespertilionid bats, the lesser long-eared bat (Nyctophilus geoffroyi) and Gould’s wattled bat (Chalinolobus gouldii), was investigated in a remnant vegetation-farmland mosaic and adjacent floodplain forest in south-eastern Australia. A total of 45 individuals of N. geoffroyi and 27 C. gouldii were fitted with radio transmitters, which resulted in the location of 139 and 89 roosts respectively. Selection of roosting habitat showed both inter- and intra-specific differences. At the landscape level, locations of roosts used by male and female N. geoffroyi differed markedly. Most males roosted in the farmland mosaic within 3 km (mean 1.9±2.9 km) of where they were captured while foraging in remnant vegetation. In contrast, roost sites of females were predominantly in the floodplain forest, 6-12 km from their capture site in farmland (mean for all females, 6.7±2.9 km). All maternity roosts were in the extensive floodplain forest, 4-10 km from foraging areas. Distances moved by this species were greater than previously recorded and further than predicted by flight morphology. Most C. gouldii roosted in the floodplain forest, 4-10 km from their capture site (6.9±1.6 km). Within the floodplain forest, both species roosted in areas that had higher densities of hollow-bearing trees than generally available; dead hollow-bearing trees for N. geoffroyi and large, live trees for C. gouldii. The scale of movements undertaken by these species means that they can obtain resources from multiple landscape elements. Both species used different habitats for roosting and foraging despite the energetic costs of commuting relatively large distances. Conservation of bat populations in rural environments needs to be considered at the landscape scale, with particular attention to identifying landscape elements that provide key resources.     

A nine-year study of successful breeding in a Bonelli’s eagle population in southeast Spain: a basis for conservation

We analyse the factors influencing breeding success in a healthy population of Bonelli’s eagle (Hieraaetus fasciatus) from south-east Spain, a raptor that has suffered a serious decline in Europe. Between 18 and 33 pairs were annually monitored during the period 1994-2002. Several factors that may affect four breeding parameters were studied, namely human presence, vegetation, relief, climatic factors, intra- and inter-specific relationships, diet, prey abundance, nest building, adult mortality and age of reproduction. A consistently high breeding success was registered during the study period (productivity=1.43, SD=0.11), which was probably the result of high adult survival, adequate prey availability and mild weather conditions. However, a certain vulnerability to the presence of golden eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) and to human disturbance was observed. One interesting result was the reduced survival of young chicks on north-facing cliffs owing to colder conditions, which may partially explain the decline of the Bonelli’s eagle populations along its European distribution limits. We discuss the role of this healthy subpopulation in an Iberian metapopulation context, and propose that the potential interference of golden eagles should be taken into account when designing management strategies for Bonelli’s eagles. Finally, we pinpoint some conservation priorities and the importance of reducing the main causes of adult mortality (i.e. shooting and electrocution) to assure successful reproduction and survival of this species.     

Comparative water snake ecology: conservation of mobile animals that use temporally dynamic resources

Obtaining information on movement and spatial patterns of animals and understanding the factors that shape their movements about the landscape are critical steps in designing conservation strategies. We conducted a comparative radiotelemetry study of two snake species, the northern water snake, Nerodia sipedon sipedon, and the imperiled copperbelly water snake, Nerodia erythrogaster neglecta, in northwest Ohio and southern Michigan to assess differences in movement patterns, spatial ecology, and resource use. N. e. neglecta moved distances (53.3 ± 7.1 m/day and 4809 ± 603 m/year) over twice as far as N. s. sipedon (25.6 ± 2.7 m/day and 2244 ± 228 m/year), and used areas nearly four times larger (15.8 ± 2.7 ha) than N. s. sipedon (4.0 ± 0.9 ha). When wetlands were widely dispersed in the landscape, N. e. neglecta moved longer distances and used larger areas, whereas spatial and movement patterns in N. s. sipedon were unaffected by wetland spatial distribution. N. e. neglecta’s long movements and large area use are likely related to its use of variable resources such as ephemeral wetlands and anuran prey. N. s. sipedon used more permanent wetlands and preyed more generally on fish and anurans. Habitat alterations that change the spatial distribution of wetlands in the landscape, such as the loss of small isolated wetlands, have likely increased energetic costs and mortality rates for N. e. neglecta. Conservation strategies for vagile wetland animals that use spatially and temporally variable resources over broad spatial scales should focus on protecting and restoring large areas with numerous, heterogeneous wetlands.     

Distribution, status, and conservation needs of Asian elephants (Elephas maximus) in Lampung Province, Sumatra, Indonesia

In the mid 1980s, Asian elephant (Elephas maximus) populations were believed to persist in 44 populations on the Indonesian island of Sumatra. Twelve of these populations occurred in Lampung Province, but our surveys revealed that only three were extant in 2002. Causal factors underlying this decline include human population growth, changes in land use, and human-elephant conflict. Nevertheless, our surveys in the Province’s two national parks, Bukit Barisan Selatan and Way Kambas, produced population estimates of 498 (95% CI = [373, 666]) and 180 (95% CI = [144, 225]) elephants, respectively. The estimate for Bukit Barisan Selatan is much larger than previous estimates; the estimate for Way Kambas falls between previous estimates. The third population was much smaller and may not be viable. These are the first estimates for Southeast Asian elephant populations based on rigorous sampling-based methods that satisfied the assumptions of the models used, and they suggest that elephant numbers in these parks are of international importance. While our results suggest that Sumatra’s remaining elephant populations may be larger than expected, they also suggest that the future for these animals is bleak. Human-elephant conflict was reported around all three areas in Lampung and their elephant populations are currently threatened by habitat loss and poaching. Local solutions are possible, but will require much greater commitment by all stakeholders.     

Incidental capture of marine turtles by the Italian trawl fishery in the north Adriatic Sea

In the north Adriatic Sea on-board observations on midwater and bottom trawlers were carried out during years 1999 and 2000. Results indicate that the north Adriatic Sea, and especially the north-east part, is a very important foraging and overwintering habitat for loggerhead turtles (Caretta caretta). Since the distribution of fishing effort in the area is not known, the total turtle catch by the Italian bottom trawl fleet was conservatively estimated from the lower catch rate observed in the south-west sub-area: 4273 turtle captures/year (95% C.I.=2186-8546). The actual total catch in the whole north Adriatic is likely to be much higher, due both to an unknown Italian trawling effort in the south-west part with multi-gear vessels and to the Italian and Croatian trawling efforts in the north-east part, where catch rate was 15 times greater than in the south-west part. In the south-west sub-area 9.4% of captured turtles were dead and potential mortality (assuming that all comatose turtles would die too) was 43.8%. Hence, trawling in the north Adriatic is likely to represent a serious threat to the populations, and possible conservation measures are discussed.     

Protecting more than the wetland: The importance of biased sex ratios and habitat segregation for conservation of the Hine’s emerald dragonfly, Somatochlora hineana Williamson

Within species habitat use may depend on age, season or sex of an individual. The distribution of males and females may vary both temporally and spatially due to differences in the costs of reproduction and the distribution of critical resources. Conservation of a species requires knowledge of the habitat use of both sexes in order to predict the population size and protect all habitats that a species requires. Adult dragonfly populations often have highly male-biased sex ratios at the breeding habitat. This bias has been attributed to females using alternative habitats to avoid male harassment, or to high female mortality. We monitored adult Hine’s emerald dragonfly (Somatochlora hineana Williamson) populations, in breeding and non-breeding habitats in Door County, Wisconsin and found significant differences in habitat use between males and females. Males primarily used wetland habitats, while females primarily used dry meadows and marginal breeding habitats, only coming into wetlands to lay-eggs or find mates. We assessed food resources in the different habitats and found that high quality insect prey (primarily adult Diptera) were more available in the wetland habitat, indicating that these areas were likely a more productive foraging area for adult dragonflies. The fact that females appear to avoid the wetland habitat is consistent with the hypothesis that male harassment alters female distribution patterns. Consideration of the patterns of habitat use by S. hineana indicates the need to develop a broader understanding of the importance of non-wetland areas in the conservation of wetland species.     

Modelling the population dynamics of the Mt. Graham red squirrel: Can we predict its future in a changing environment with multiple threats?

The Mt. Graham red squirrel (Tamiasciurus hudsonicus grahamensis; MGRS) is among the most critically endangered mammals in the United States and is isolated on the periphery of the species’ range, potentially increasing its conservation priority. To investigate potential threats to the population and provide a tool for land managers, we developed a spatially explicit population dynamics model. We tested model predictions using available range-wide data from the literature and field work specific to the MGRS. A general model input data set using mean life history values overpredicted MGRS abundance. However, we found significant correlation with known squirrel abundance using a general data set with curtailed fecundity and survival. A model with MGRS-specific data provided the best fit to observed population size. We investigated potential impacts of two major threats to the MGRS: competition from introduced Abert’s squirrels (Sciurus aberti) and increased levels of predation. Predation and particularly competition could have significant effects on the future population of the MGRS. Careful attention must be used to model the viability of fringe populations as peripheral populations can have a different life history than populations found in the range core.     

Where can tigers persist in the future? A landscape-scale, density-based population model for the Indian subcontinent

Despite being targeted as a conservation flagship species for several decades, the tiger (Panthera tigris) grows ever more imperiled. Debate exists as to where tiger conservation should focus: on protected nature reserves or larger landscapes. We developed a landscape scale, density-based model to assess whether reasonably effective management of current reserves is adequate to ensure the survival of tiger populations. We focused on the Indian subcontinent, the region likely to harbor most tigers. Using tiger density estimates and vegetation data, we set tiger population targets that could be attained through reasonable management of the subcontinent’s nature reserves. Depending on the quality of the surrounding landscape matrix, our model indicated that the subcontinent could potentially hold ∼3500-6500 tigers, in up to 150 reserves. Strikingly, just 21 reserves can hold most (58-95%) of this tiger capacity. These high-population target reserves were relatively insensitive to the hostility of the surrounding matrix to tigers, as their aggregate capacity varied by <10% across a wide range of matrix conditions. In contrast, the remaining 129 reserves were highly sensitive to matrix quality, as they were unable to sustain populations with a tiger-hostile matrix, even with reasonable management. Our results suggest that reasonably improved management of the subcontinent’s reserves can sustain multiple tiger populations based on two differing conservation strategies. Conservation within the 21 reserves with the largest population targets should focus primarily on the reserves themselves. In contrast, tiger conservation in the remaining reserves can succeed only with additional management of the unprotected landscapes that surround them.