Correlates of extinction risk and hunting pressure in gamebirds (Galliformes)

The 284 species of Galliformes are a highly threatened group of birds subject to direct exploitation for food, sport and cultural practices. The impact of hunting is often assumed to contribute to the high percentage of species (26.4%) listed as threatened with extinction in the IUCN Red List. We take a macroecological approach to examine the anthropogenic and ecological correlates of extinction risk and hunting pressure using linear and stepwise regression. Independent contrasts are analysed, as well as raw species data, to control for the potential confounding influence of phylogenetic trends. Extinction risk is found to be predicted both by the ecological factors considered (e.g., latitudinal range, body mass, elevational range, habitat use) and secondarily by human factors (e.g., human population density, total calorie intake, composition of diet). Hunting pressure itself is also predicted well for the threatened species by several of the anthropogenic and ecological variables. The study demonstrates that human variables can be used successfully to predict extinction risk, and represent an improvement upon methods which examine ecological variables alone. Furthermore, we show that individual threats can be explored using similar techniques, providing a more detailed insight into the processes leading to extinction. As applied to the Galliformes, both approaches provide evidence supporting the hypothesis that hunting pressure has contributed to the high proportion of threatened species in this group, and thus reinforce the case for urgent measures to reduce the impacts of direct exploitation upon these birds.     

How to make a common species rare: A case against conservation complacency

A traditional focus in conservation biology has been on rare species as they are often those most at risk of decline or extinction. However, we argue in this paper that some kinds of currently common species also can be susceptible to decline. Those at particular risk are species that are specialized on widespread environmental conditions. Such specialization may make such species vulnerable to a range of drivers of environmental change, placing them at risk of significant decline or even local extinction. We illustrate this with a case study of the arboreal marsupial the Greater Glider (Petauroides volans) in south-eastern Australia. The Greater Glider was formerly common in two large-scale studies but in one it suffered rapid extinction (within a 3 year period) and in another it is declining at an annual rate of 8.8%. We therefore argue for more research to better predict those kinds of currently common species which might be at risk of future rapid decline or extinction. In addition, we suggest there will often be a need to take pro-active conservation and management action to reduce the number of potential environmental stressors on populations of common species to ensure they do not become uncommon or rare. We also argue that conserving common species will ensure the retention of their key ecological and functional roles in ecosystems. Finally, we believe there is a need to develop better monitoring programs that can detect changes in the population trajectories of common species, help identify the reasons for temporal changes in such populations, and underpin timely management interventions. Despite these good intentions, we acknowledge that in one of our own long-term investigations we: (1) failed to anticipate the extremely rapid decline (and likely local extinction) of the Greater Glider, (2) were unable to diagnose the reason/s underpinning the population collapse, and (3) nor were we able to instigate a timely intervention program of management to prevent this from occurring. The key lesson from this sobering result is that common species can sometimes be at risk of rapid decline and it is wise to avoid complacency in conservation.     

An approach for regional threat assessment under IUCN Red List criteria that is robust to uncertainty: The Fiordland bottlenose dolphins are critically endangered

Numerous globally abundant species are exposed to human impacts that threaten the viability of regional populations. Assessing and characterising the risks faced by these populations can have significant implications for biodiversity conservation, given the ecological importance of many such species. To address these risks, the IUCN is starting to conduct assessments of regional populations in addition to species-level assessments of conservation status. Here, we demonstrate a threat assessment process that is robust to uncertainty, applying the IUCN criteria to a regional population of bottlenose dolphins in Fiordland, New Zealand. We compiled available population-specific information to assess the population under the five Red List criteria. We estimated there were 205 Fiordland bottlenose dolphins (CV = 3.5%), using current estimates of abundance for two sub-populations and stochastic modelling of an earlier estimate for the third sub-population. Population trajectory and extinction risk were assessed using stochastic age-structured Leslie matrix population models. The majority of model runs met the criteria for classification as critically endangered (C1: 67.6% of runs) given the number of mature individuals (123; CV = 6.7%) and the predicted rate of population decline (average decline: 31.4% over one generation). The evidence of isolation of the population confirms this was an appropriate regional classification. This approach provided an assessment that was robust to uncertainty.     

Re-test of Rhinocyllus conicus host specificity, and the prediction of ecological risk in biological control

Biological control is proposed as an ecological strategy to manage the threat of invasive plants, especially in natural areas. To pursue this strategy, we need to know that the host specificity criteria used to evaluate ecological risk with deliberate introduction of an exotic insect for biocontrol are sufficient to predict potential impact on native species. Host specificity is defined by adult feeding and oviposition preferences and larval development. One way to evaluate the criteria is to re-examine case histories where ecological effects are recorded, such as that of Rhinocyllus conicus Frölich. This flower head weevil, released in North America in 1968 to control exotic thistles like Musk thistle (Carduus nutans L), is now reducing seed production by multiple native North American thistle species (Cirsium spp.), and local population density of Platte thistle (Cirsium canescens Nutt.). We hypothesized that host specificity of R. conicus has changed since pre-release testing, providing an explanation for the unexpected magnitude of the documented ecological effects. Instead, when we re-tested host specificity of weevils naturalized over 28 generations, we found that host specificity has not changed. Naturalized adults of R. conicus showed strong feeding and oviposition preference for Musk thistle over Platte thistle. In addition, larval development by these weevils was faster and more successful (to larger size) on Musk thistle than on Platte thistle. Thus, our results indicate that a change in host specificity cannot explain the unexpectedly large build-up of R. conicus and significant ecological effect on Platte thistle. We conclude that accurate prediction of the potential level of impact on native host plants in the field requires further ecological information in addition to host specificity.     

Prominent role of invasive species in avian biodiversity loss

The rise of extinction rates associated with human activities has led to a growing interest in identifying extinction-prone taxa and extinction-promoting drivers. Previous work has identified habitat alterations and invasive species as the major drivers of recent bird extinctions. Here, we extend this work to ask how these human-driven impacts differentially affect extinction-prone taxa, and if any specific driver promotes taxonomic homogenization of avifauna. Like most previous studies, our analysis is based on global information of extinction drivers affecting threatened and extinct bird species from the IUCN Red List. Unlike previous studies, we employ a multivariate statistical framework that allows us to identify the main gradients of variation in extinction drivers. By using these gradients, we show that bird families with the highest extinction risk are primarily associated with threats posed by invasive species, once species richness and phylogeny are taken into account. As expected, the negative impact of invasive species was higher on island species, but our results also showed that it was particularly high in those species with small distribution ranges. On the other hand, mainland species and island species with large ranges tended to be affected by habitat destruction. Thus the impacts of invasive species promote the process of taxonomic homogenization among islands and between islands and continents. Consequently, introduced species may increase biotic homogenization not only directly, as generally believed, but also indirectly through their disproportional impact on endemic species imperilment.     

Adapting the IUCN Red List criteria for invertebrates

The IUCN Red List is the most useful list of species that are at risk for extinction worldwide, as it relies on a number of objective criteria. Nevertheless, there is a taxonomic bias that excludes species with small body sizes, narrow distribution ranges and low dispersal abilities, which constitute the vast majority of the planet’s biota, particularly local endemics.By evaluating each IUCN criterion separately, we (i) identify the shortcomings for invertebrate applications, (ii) explain how risk categories may be wrongly applied due to inapplicable and/or misleading thresholds, (iii) suggest alternative ways of applying the existing criteria in a more realistic way and (iv) suggest possible new criteria that were not considered in the current evaluation framework but that could allow a more comprehensive and effective assessment of invertebrates.By adapting the criteria to rely more explicitly on the Area of Occupancy and the Extent of Occurrence, their respective trends and by using ecological modelling methods, the criteria’s applicability would be increased. The change in some thresholds or, eventually, the creation of sub-categories would further increase their adequacy. Additionally, co-extinction could be introduced as an explicit part of the classification process.As a case study, we evaluated 48 species of Azorean arthropods and Iberian spiders according to the current criteria. More than one-quarter (27%) of all evaluated species were classified as Critically Endangered, 19% as Endangered, 6% as Vulnerable and 8% as Least Concern. The remaining 40% did not have enough data to reach a classification.     

Underestimated and severe: Small mammal decline from the forests of south-eastern Australia since European settlement, as revealed by a top-order predator

In Australia, numerous small mammal species have suffered extinction or severe declines in distribution and abundance following European settlement. The extent of these declines from forested areas of south-eastern Australia, however, remains poorly understood. In this paper we use sub-fossil deposits of the sooty owl (Tyto tenebricosa tenebricosa) as a tool for understanding the diversity of the small mammal palaeocommunity. These results are compared to the contemporary sooty owl diet from the same geographical region to investigate the degree of small mammal decline following European settlement.Of 28 mammal species detected in sub-fossil deposits and considered prey items of the sooty owl at the time of European settlement, only 10 species were detected in the contemporary sooty owl diet. Numerous small mammal species have not only recently suffered severe declines in distribution and abundance but have also recently undergone niche contraction, as they occupied a greater diversity of regions and habitats at the time of European settlement. For some species our understanding of their true ecological niche and ecological potential is therefore limited. The species that underwent the greatest declines occupied open habitat types or were terrestrial. The severity of decline is also likely to have resulted in severe disruption of ecosystem functions, with wide scale ecosystem consequences. There is an urgent need to improve small mammal conservation, to maintain crucial ecosystem functions performed by small mammals. It is recommended that broad-scale exotic predator control programs are conducted which may also provide suitable conditions for the re-introduction of locally extinct species.     

Life-history and ecological correlates of population change in Dutch breeding birds

Predicting relative extinction risks of animals has become a major challenge in conservation biology. Identifying life-history and ecological traits related to the decline of species helps understand what causes population decreases and sets priorities for conservation action. Here, we use Dutch breeding bird data to correlate species characteristics with national population changes. We modelled population changes between 1990 and 2005 of all 170 breeding bird species using 25 life-history, ecological and behavioural traits as explanatory variables. We used multiple regression and multi-model inference to account for intercorrelated variables, to assess the relative importance of traits that best explain interspecific differences in population trend, and to identify the environmental changes most likely responsible. We found that more breeding birds have increased than decreased in number. The most parsimonious models suggest that ground-nesting and late arrival at the breeding grounds in migratory birds are most strongly correlated with decline. Increasing populations are mainly found among herbivores, sedentary and short-distance migrants, herb- and shrub-nesting birds and large species with a small European range. Declines in ground-nesting and late arriving migrant birds suggest that agricultural intensification, eutrophication and climate change are most likely responsible for changes in Dutch breeding bird diversity. We illustrate that management strategies should primarily focus on the traits and causes responsible for the population changes, in order to be effective and sustainable.     

Climate change is linked to long-term decline in a stream salamander

Amphibian declines have been documented worldwide and several have been linked to climate change, but the long-term data needed to detect declines are largely restricted to pond-breeding species. This limits our knowledge of population trends in other major groups of amphibians, including stream salamanders, which have their greatest diversity in North America. I hypothesized that increasing air temperature and precipitation in northeastern North America caused abundance of the stream salamander Gyrinophilus porphyriticus in a New Hampshire population to decline between 1999 and 2010. I found a significant decline in abundance of G. porphyriticus adults over this 12-year period, and no trend in larval abundance. Adult abundance was negatively related to annual precipitation, which is predicted to increase further in the Northeast due to climate change. Analysis of a 6-year capture–mark–recapture data set for the same population showed no temporal variation in larval and adult detectability, validating the abundance data, and no variation in larval and adult survival. However, survival during metamorphosis from the larval to adult stage declined dramatically. These results suggest that increasing precipitation is causing a decline in adult recruitment, which, if it persists, will lead to local extinction. A likely mechanism for the decline in adult recruitment is mortality of metamorphosing individuals during spring and fall floods, which have increased in volume and frequency with the increase in precipitation. More broadly, this study presents strong evidence that the amphibian decline crisis extends to North America’s stream salamanders, and shows the critical need to collect population data on these species.     

Data Deficient birds on the IUCN Red List: What don’t we know and why does it matter?

Species are classified as Data Deficient on the IUCN Red List if there is inadequate information to make an assessment of their extinction risk based on distribution and/or population status. Data Deficient is probably the most controversial and misunderstood of IUCN Red List categories. All 63 globally Data Deficient bird species lack sufficient information on population size, trends, distribution and/or threats to assess them against the Red List criteria. For 10 species (16%) the paucity of data may be a consequence of taxonomic uncertainty. Three species are known only from specimens of uncertain geographic provenance. Since 1988, 58 Data Deficient birds have been recategorised, mainly as Near Threatened (48%) or Least Concern (16%). We speculate that of the remaining Data Deficient birds, just 14% may prove to be threatened. Proportionately fewer birds (0.6%) are listed as Data Deficient as compared with mammals (15%), amphibians (25%), corals (17%), conifers (4%) and cycads (6%), because birds are better known and perhaps because for birds greater use is made of contextual information (e.g. condition of habitats, likely ecology/habitat preferences and trends in known threatening processes) to assign alternative categories where this is plausible and precautionary. Ensuring consistency between taxonomic groups is essential for the credibility of the IUCN Red List. For non-avian taxa, the higher proportions of Data Deficient species introduces greater uncertainty in estimates of overall extinction risk, but the results from birds hint that the real values may fall at the lower end of these estimates. Data Deficient species should be treated precautionarily in terms of protection and assessing environmental impacts, and regarded as urgent priorities for surveys and research to elucidate their true status. Greater attention should also be given to documenting data quality and uncertainty for Red List assessments of threatened and non-threatened species.     

A comparative study of clutch size, range size, and the conservation status of island vs. mainland lacertid lizards

Whereas the range size of endangered species is undoubtfuly useful to predict risk of extinction, the role of their life-history characteristics is much less clear, and their effects may depend on the nature of the threatening factors. Such factors, for instance, are known to be different on islands and on the mainland. We used phylogenetically based statistical analyses to study the relationships among conservation status, insularity, range size, and life-history traits in a clade of Western Palaearctic lacertids including insular and continental species. These lizards are ecologically similar, but they show wide variation in life-history traits and vulnerability to extinction. Insular species of a given size had smaller clutches than mainland ones. Degree of threat was best predicted by a logistic regression including range size, insularity, clutch size, and the insularity × clutch size interaction. On the mainland, but not on islands, threatened species had smaller clutches than non-threatened ones. On islands, small clutch size is probably an adaptive trait, and it might predispose certain species to extinction, but the intrinsic characteristics of such species remain unclear. However, small clutch size was a good predictor of extinction risk on the mainland, having evolved most frequently in late maturing species from montane habitats in which climatic conditions limit their reproductive output and increase their vulnerability to stochastic hazards or habitat fragmentation.     

The influence of uncertainty on conservation assessments: Australian frogs as a case study

We evaluated the influence of uncertainty, based on variation in expert opinion, on assessment of conservation status of Australian amphibians. We examined relationships between different biological variables and inferred relative extinction risk, the influence of uncertainty on resulting ranks, and regional patterns of extinction risk and uncertainty. Our results were in general agreement with the International Union for the Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources but also reveal apparent high extinction risks among some taxa that the IUCN did not classify in any threatened category. These differences were exaggerated when the most conservative status assessments were taken from variation in expert opinion. Our assessments of relative extinction risk were strongly dependent on basic demographic variables, particularly population size, geographic distribution of populations and age at first reproduction. We identified regional hotspots of high relative extinction risk and poor knowledge of amphibians, leading to high uncertainty about the conservation status of species from those areas. Regional clustering of species with high relative extinction risk and high uncertainty may indicate higher levels of relative extinction risk than previously assessed. Our results highlight the influence of uncertainty on interpretation of conservation assessments of organism groups with large knowledge gaps. Uncertainty should be further incorporated into conservation planning as it not only highlights taxa with potentially underestimated extinction risk, but also facilitates identification of knowledge gaps informative of conservation status. Knowledge of regional patterns of extinction risk and uncertainty assists conservation planning through identification of regions of high extinction risk and/or large knowledge gaps.     

Ecological and life-history traits predict bee species responses to environmental disturbances

The ability to predict the responses of ecological communities and individual species to human-induced environmental change remains a key issue for ecologists and conservation managers alike. Responses are often variable among species within groups making general predictions difficult. One option is to include ecological trait information that might help to disentangle patterns of response and also provide greater understanding of how particular traits link whole clades to their environment. Although this “trait-guild” approach has been used for single disturbances, the importance of particular traits on general responses to multiple disturbances has not been explored. We used a mixed model analysis of 19 data sets from throughout the world to test the effect of ecological and life-history traits on the responses of bee species to different types of anthropogenic environmental change. These changes included habitat loss, fragmentation, agricultural intensification, pesticides and fire. Individual traits significantly affected bee species responses to different disturbances and several traits were broadly predictive among multiple disturbances. The location of nests - above vs. below ground - significantly affected response to habitat loss, agricultural intensification, tillage regime (within agriculture) and fire. Species that nested above ground were on average more negatively affected by isolation from natural habitat and intensive agricultural land use than were species nesting below ground. In contrast below-ground-nesting species were more negatively affected by tilling than were above-ground nesters. The response of different nesting guilds to fire depended on the time since the burn. Social bee species were more strongly affected by isolation from natural habitat and pesticides than were solitary bee species. Surprisingly, body size did not consistently affect species responses, despite its importance in determining many aspects of individuals’ interaction with their environment. Although synergistic interactions among traits remain to be explored, individual traits can be useful in predicting and understanding responses of related species to global change.     

Dragonfly crisis in Japan: A likely consequence of recent agricultural habitat degradation

Many Japanese dragonfly species depend on habitat complexes maintained in rice paddy systems. We postulated that recent alterations to habitat complexes in paddy systems have had adverse effects on dragonfly populations, especially those ‘once common species’ that have come to depend primarily on paddy systems following losses of natural floodplain habitats. A high proportion of Japanese lentic dragonfly species depends on paddy fields or agricultural ponds that have been extensively degraded, while lotic species can often use both paddies and natural river systems. Thus we also postulated that lentic species are more susceptible to changes in agricultural habitats and are subject to higher extinction risks than lotic species. We aimed to extend previous work on estimating dragonfly extinction risk by developing mechanistic insights into the processes involved. Postulates were tested by analyzing relationships between (1) previous quantitative extinction risk assessments for dragonfly species and (2) species’ ecological characteristics (i.e., distribution range and habitat type [lentic or lotic]). Lentic species were disproportionately represented among those with elevated extinction risk. Species with large distribution ranges were also subject to higher extinction risks than those with narrower ranges, reflecting a driving force acting at a national scale (i.e., intensive degradation of paddy systems).     

Applying IUCN criteria to invertebrates: How red is the Red List of European butterflies?

The IUCN is the leading authority on assessing species’ extinction risks worldwide and introduced the use of quantitative criteria for the compilation of Red Lists of threatened species. Recently, we assessed the threat status of the 483 European butterfly species, using semi-quantitative data on changes in distribution and in population sizes provided by national butterfly experts. We corrected distribution trends for the observation that coarse-scale grid cells underestimate actual population trends by 35%. To account for uncertainty, we included a 5% error margin on the distribution and population trends provided. The new Red List of European butterflies determined one species as Regionally Extinct, 37 species as threatened (Critically Endangered, Endangered or Vulnerable) and a further 44 as Near Threatened. The use of semi-quantitative data on distribution and population trends permitted us to use IUCN criteria to compile a scientifically underpinned Red List of butterflies in Europe. However, a comparison of detailed monitoring data for some grassland species showed that coarse-scale grid cell data and population trends strongly underestimate extinction risks, and the list should be taken as a conservative estimate of threat. Finally, combining the new Red List status with the data provided by the national butterfly experts, allowed us to determine simple criteria to delineate conservation priorities for butterflies in Europe, so called SPecies of European conservation Concern (SPEC’s). Using European butterflies, our approach illustrated how Red Listing can be performed when data are incomplete for some IUCN criteria or vary strongly among countries.     

Viability of mountain caribou in British Columbia, Canada: Effects of habitat change and population density

Population viability analyses (PVA) are frequently employed to develop recovery plans and inform management of endangered species. Translating results from PVA into meaningful management recommendations often depends on an understanding of how population parameters change with environmental conditions as well as population density. The decline of mountain caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) in British Columbia, Canada, is believed to be caused by apparent competition with alternative prey species following changes to the forest age structure from timber harvest and wildfire. In addition, populations have been shown to decline at faster rates at low population density. To evaluate the potential effects of habitat change and population density on population persistence, we used stochastic projection models for 10 distinct populations varying in initial size from <10 to approximately 150 females. In an initial model, we used estimates of vital rates based on information sampled from >350 radiocollared caribou between 1984 and 2004. We then compared the results of the initial model to a set of models that evaluated the effects of habitat conditions and population density via their expected relationships to female adult survival. Assuming that vital rates remain constant over a 200-year time frame, only three populations have high probabilities (>0.95) of extinction. When models incorporate the declines in adult female survival know to occur with increasing proportions of young forest and declining population densities, all 10 populations are predicted to decline to extinction within <200 years. Based on our results, we suggest that PVA models that fail to incorporate the effects of changes in vital rates with habitat and population density may lead to overly optimistic assessments of the probability of population persistence in endangered species.     

Grid-based monitoring methods for detecting population declines: Sensitivity to spatial scale and consequences of scale correction

A decrease in the area of occupancy of a species is often criterion by which a species is classified as threatened (i.e. IUCN Red List). However, it is unclear how to accurately measure change in area of occupancy. Area of occupancy is a measure of distribution and the spatial scale at which the distribution is measured will affect the ability to detect a decline. To overcome errors introduced by measuring distribution at different spatial scales, scale correction methods are often applied. It is known that scale correction reliably estimates area of occupancy; however, its suitability to estimate trends in area of occupancy has not been assessed. We investigate the effect of spatial scale and implementation of scale correction when estimating two different forms of decline in area of occupancy: spatially correlated and spatially uncorrelated declines. We explore these issues using simulations of three declining species and a grid-based monitoring method designed to detect the declines. Our results suggest that current grid-based methods are inadequate for detecting uncorrelated local extinctions, even if the total decline is substantial (e.g. 65% of the original range). We demonstrate that scale correction will lead to misleading conclusions in some situations. We suggest an alternative survey method to accurately estimate changes in area of occupancy over time. We provide guidelines for designing grid surveys to measure changes in area of occupancy to assess a species threat status using the IUCN Red List criterion.     

A review of the conservation threats to carnivorous plants

Over half of the carnivorous plant species assessed by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) are listed as threatened (i.e. vulnerable, endangered, or critically endangered), but the threats to carnivorous plants have not previously been quantified systematically. In this review, we quantify the conservation threats to carnivorous plant taxa worldwide. Using the IUCN Red List, a literature search of Web of Knowledge, and the National Red Lists database, we collected data on the threats to 48 species of carnivorous plants from nine genera. The most common threat was habitat loss from agriculture, followed by the collection of wild plants, pollution, and natural systems modifications. A principal coordinate analysis revealed that species within a genus often faced similar threats, and an indicator species analysis found positive associations among species in the genus Sarracenia and agricultural activities, over-collection, invasive species, and pollution. Future research should further quantify the effects of pollution on carnivorous plants, and more thoroughly examine the potential role of carnivorous plants as indicator species for wetland health. More research is also needed to quantify the extinction risk for many carnivorous plants, as presently only around 17% of species have been assessed by the IUCN. Ensuring the conservation of carnivorous plants will help maintain the important ecosystem services they provide and prevent secondary extinctions of specialist species that rely on them.     

Extinction risk assessment of the world’s seagrass species

Seagrasses, a functional group of marine flowering plants rooted in the world’s coastal oceans, support marine food webs and provide essential habitat for many coastal species, playing a critical role in the equilibrium of coastal ecosystems and human livelihoods. For the first time, the probability of extinction is determined for the world’s seagrass species under the Categories and Criteria of the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List of Threatened Species. Several studies have indicated that seagrass habitat is declining worldwide. Our focus is to determine the risk of extinction for individual seagrass species, a 4-year process involving seagrass experts internationally, compilation of data on species’ status, populations, and distribution, and review of the biology and ecology of each of the world’s seagrass species. Ten seagrass species are at elevated risk of extinction (14% of all seagrass species), with three species qualifying as Endangered. Seagrass species loss and degradation of seagrass biodiversity will have serious repercussions for marine biodiversity and the human populations that depend upon the resources and ecosystem services that seagrasses provide.     

Does the heathland flora in north-western Belgium show an extinction debt?

The large losses of heathland area since the end of the 18th century can be expected to have resulted in the decline or even extinction of many characteristic heathland species. Historical data on plant species distribution patterns can provide valuable information in this context. Therefore, the aims of this research are to study how the loss of heathland area has changed the presence of heathland and forest plant species in north-western Belgium using historical plant distribution data, and to test whether the heathland flora shows an extinction debt. Furthermore, plant traits determining extinction sensitivity are investigated.Our results revealed that, despite the dramatic reduction of heathland area (more than 99% of heathland was destroyed over a 230-year period), the loss of heathland species is relatively limited (11%) and is comparable with that of forest species (11%). Heathland species that have a long-term persistent seed bank or can propagate vegetatively are least sensitive to extinction. For forest species, on the other hand, growth form is the key determinant for extinction sensitivity. Long-lived woody species have a greater chance of persisting.The relatively low extinction numbers probably represent an extinction debt and the full effects of habitat loss may not have been fully manifested yet. Consequently, future extinctions are expected to occur unless environmental conditions are improved. Therefore, heathland restoration and prevention of further heathland area losses is required.