Genetic tracking of the brown bear in northern Pakistan and implications for conservation

Asian bears face major threats due to the impact of human activities as well as a critical lack of knowledge about their status, distribution and needs for survival. Once abundant in northern Pakistan, the Himalayan brown bear (Ursus arctos isabellinus) has been exterminated in most of its former distribution range. It presently occurs sparsely, in small populations, the Deosai National Park supporting the largest isolate. This decline might imply a reduction in genetic diversity, compromising the survival of the population. Using a combination of fecal DNA analysis and field data, our study aimed at assessing the size and genetic status of the Deosai population and give guidelines for its conservation and management. Using fecal genetic analysis, we estimated the population to be 40-50 bears, which compares well with the field census of 38 bears. The northern Pakistani brown bear population may have undergone an approximate 200-300-fold decrease during the last thousand years, probably due to glaciations and the influence of growing human population. However, in spite of the presence of a bottleneck genetic signature, the Deosai population has a moderate level of genetic diversity and is not at immediate risk of inbreeding depression. Gene flow might exist with adjacent populations. We recommend careful monitoring of this population in the future both with field observations and genetic analyses, including sampling of adjacent populations to assess incoming gene flow. The connectivity with adjacent populations in Pakistan and India will be of prime importance for the long-term survival of Deosai bears.     

A habitat model for brown bear conservation and land use planning in the central Apennines

We investigated the brown bear habitat suitability in an 8000 km² study area encompassing Abruzzo, Latium, and Molise regions in central-southern Italy. Based on long-term field surveys and published records, we classified bear habitat as occupied or unoccupied in 92 out of 320 sample squares (5 × 5 km). For each sample square 36 habitat variables were measured from topographic maps and Corine land-cover III level digital maps. The influence of habitat features on bear presence was investigated by multivariate and one-way analyses of variance and by logistic regression analysis. The logistic model correctly classified 95.5% of sample squares of bear presence and 93.8% of those where bears were absent. Average altitude, deciduous woodlands and ecotone length, showed a positive relationship with bear presence, whereas vineyard-olive groves and shrublands were negatively correlated with bear presence. No specific land management guidelines or strategies exist for bear conservation in central Italy, based on knowledge of habitat-population relationships. The landscape scale habitat model we developed could be useful to predict bear occurrence, to identify critical areas for a brown bear conservation strategy, and to enhance the arrangement of the protected areas network for the conservation of this species.     

Determining the spatial scale for conservation purposes - an example with grizzly bears

This study suggests procedures for determining the spatial scale for conservation guidelines for animals, giving an illustration with an analysis of grizzly bear habitat selection. Bear densities were sampled by identifying hairs at bait stations in British Columbia. Habitat variables were measured using remote sensing. Spatial scale was changed by varying the window size over which the variables were averaged. First, the spatial pattern of bears was studied, measuring the patchiness in bear densities at a variety of spatial scales, by calculating the correlation in bear densities between adjacent windows. This was repeated for the habitat variables. Finally, the overall interaction between bears and habitats was analysed, measuring the strength of habitat selection at different spatial scales. There are three domains of scale: at 2-4 km, bears and habitats are patchy, at 5-10 km, bears select for habitats, and at 40+ km, habitats are patchy and bears select for habitats. At scales of 40+ km, bears selected for: (i) higher slopes, or (ii) higher slopes, and some combination of more avalanche chutes, fewer roads and trees, higher elevations, and less logged land. Within 15 km areas, bears selected for 6 km areas that are either at higher elevations, or at higher elevations and had fewer trees. The relationship of conservation guidelines at different spatial scales should be determined by measuring and comparing hierarchical to non-hierarchical selection. The scales that bears select for habitats roughly correspond to the scales used in present grizzly bear conservation plans in British Columbia.     

Brown bear conservation and the ghost of persecution past

Large carnivores, such as brown bears, are focal species for conservation efforts. Historically, brown bears were persecuted in Europe for centuries before their gradual elimination from much of Western Europe. In contrast, large carnivore populations in North America were eradicated within two centuries in the east and within a few decades in the west. After a change towards conservation-oriented management in the 20th century, many bear populations are again increasing on both continents. Europe is seemingly less suited (i.e. higher human densities, greater habitat alteration and landscape fragmentation) than in North America, however bears seem to respond faster to conservation measures in Europe. We analyzed ecological and historical factors that may affect differences in reproductive allocation (mean litter size in relation to mean adult female body mass) and help explain why different brown bear populations react differently to conservation measures. The results indicated that mean litter size increased significantly with mean adult female body mass and a long persecution history. Our results suggest that high and long-term rates of nonselective harvesting can change life-history traits of large mammals, as has also been shown by modeling, but only has been documented for morphological traits. Incidentally, this “ghost of persecution past” may have helped some brown bear populations to be more productive and therefore to respond more positively to protective management policies than populations with short exploitation histories.     

Estimating habitat suitability and potential population size for brown bears in the Eastern Alps

According to the Habitats Directive of the European Union, a favorable conservation status for the brown bear (Ursus arctos) should be targeted at the population level in large contiguous habitats such as the Alps, the largest mountain range in Europe. However, in most of the Alps brown bears are extinct and habitat suitability in these areas is often questionable. For this paper, radio-tracking data from four projects with 42 individual bears was compiled to assess habitat suitability. Discrete-choice models with random bear effects were fitted and compared to results obtained from compositional analysis and logistic regression. Sound definition of the available area in the discrete-choice model turned out to be essential. Brown bears showed a preference for forested and steep habitats and an avoidance of roads.Results from the three approaches were used to predict habitat suitability across the entire range of the Eastern Alps. Minimum potential population size was projected based on observed densities in Trentino and Central Austria, and ranged from 1228 to 1625 individuals, with 518–686 mature bears. This would satisfy a favorable conservation status. The developed methodology also has wide applicability to quantification of habitat suitability and potential population size in other cases where species are at risk.     

Predicting survival, reproduction and abundance of polar bears under climate change

Polar bear (Ursus maritimus) populations are predicted to be negatively affected by climate warming, but the timeframe and manner in which change to polar bear populations will occur remains unclear. Predictions incorporating climate change effects are necessary for proactive population management, the setting of optimal harvest quotas, and conservation status decisions. Such predictions are difficult to obtain from historic data directly because past and predicted environmental conditions differ substantially. Here, we explore how models can be used to predict polar bear population responses under climate change. We suggest the development of mechanistic models aimed at predicting reproduction and survival as a function of the environment. Such models can often be developed, parameterized, and tested under current environmental conditions. Model predictions for reproduction and survival under future conditions could then be input into demographic projection models to improve abundance predictions under climate change. We illustrate the approach using two examples. First, using an individual-based dynamic energy budget model, we estimate that 3-6% of adult males in Western Hudson Bay would die of starvation before the end of a 120 day summer fasting period but 28-48% would die if climate warming increases the fasting period to 180 days. Expected changes in survival are non-linear (sigmoid) as a function of fasting period length. Second, we use an encounter rate model to predict changes in female mating probability under sea ice area declines and declines in mate-searching efficiency due to habitat fragmentation. The model predicts that mating success will decline non-linearly if searching efficiency declines faster than habitat area, and increase non-linearly otherwise. Specifically for the Lancaster Sound population, we predict that female mating success would decline from 99% to 91% if searching efficiency declined twice as fast as sea ice area, and to 72% if searching efficiency declined four times as fast as area. Sea ice is a complex and dynamic habitat that is rapidly changing. Failure to incorporate climate change effects into population projections can result in flawed conservation assessments and management decisions.     

An evaluation of field and non-invasive genetic methods to estimate brown bear (Ursus arctos) population size

Estimates of population size and density are essential for successful management and conservation of any species. Although there are a variety of methods available for estimating abundance and density of populations, most studies rely on only one estimator and very few studies have compared and critically evaluated the adequacy and the cost of these methods. We used the brown bear (Ursus arctos) in south-central Sweden to compare the performance of three different methods of estimating population size, including methods based on conventional field data as well as on non-invasive genetic data. The method based on observations of females with cubs underestimated the true population size, as the estimates were below the number of unique genotypes determined from faecal data inside the study area. The best traditional method was based on observations of bears from a helicopter. The genetic method using the closed population MARK estimator, as recommended in a previous study, seemed to perform the best. We conclude that approximately 223 (188-282) bears were present in our 7328 km² study area during 2001 and 2002 and suggest that this hunted brown bear population has been relatively stable for about ten years. The non-invasive genetic method was less expensive than the most reliable traditional field method (a CMR method based on observations of bears from a helicopter), and preferable from an ethical point of view. We recommend that future studies using non-invasive genetic methods based on collected faecal samples should aim at collecting 2.5-3 times the number of faecal samples as the “assumed” number of animals.     

The impact of high speed, high volume traffic axes on brown bears in Slovenia

The Ljubljana-Razdrto highway and the parallel Ljubljana-Trieste railway cut through critical brown bear (Ursus arctos) habitat in south-central Slovenia. These high speed, high volume traffic axes are located close to the main dispersal corridor for bears from the Dinaric Mountain range into the Alps. We analyzed radiotracking data of 15 individual bears that lived within 10 km of the highway, compared transportation related and overall known bear mortality, and analyzed the spatial distribution of bear-vehicle accidents. The highway posed a home range boundary to resident bears, but was not an absolute barrier. Transportation-related mortality was high in the vicinity of the highway and railway, and averaged 31% of the total known local mortality from 1992 to 1999. At present the detrimental impact of transportation routes on the bear population in Slovenia is modest due to the high density of bears and the low density of highways—but new highways are planned or already under construction. Managers have to be aware that, due to bears large home ranges and long dispersal distances, a single highway affects bears from a huge area—emphasizing the importance of international cooperation and a landscape approach in highway planning.     

Can natural disturbance-based forestry rescue a declining population of grizzly bears?

Forest managers are increasingly considering historic patterns of natural forest disturbance as a model for forest harvesting and as a coarse-filter ecosystem management tool. We evaluated the long-term (100-year) persistence of a grizzly bear population in Alberta, Canada using forest simulations and habitat modelling. Even with harvesting the same volume of timber, natural disturbance-based forestry resulted in a larger human footprint than traditional two-pass forestry with road densities reaching 1.39 km/km² or more than three times baseline conditions and suggested maximum levels of security for grizzly bears. Because bears favour young forests and edges where food resources are plentiful, a future shift to young forests and more edge habitat resulted in a 20% projected increase in habitat quality and a 10% projected increase in potential carrying capacity. Human-caused mortality risk, however, offset any projected gains in habitat and carrying capacity resulting in the loss of all secure, unprotected territories, regardless of forest harvest method, within the first 20-30 years of simulation. We suggest that natural disturbance-based forestry is an ill-suited management tool for sustaining declining populations of grizzly bears. A management model that explicitly considers road access is more likely to improve grizzly bear population persistence than changing the size of clear-cuts. In fact, large clear cuts might be counter productive for bears since a diversity of habitats within each bear’s home range is more likely to buffer against future uncertainties.     

Monitoring rare or elusive large mammals using effort-corrected voluntary observers

Populations of rare or elusive large mammals are difficult to monitor, because they usually are secretive, solitary, occur at low densities, and have large home ranges. The global trend of generally decreasing large carnivore populations necessitates new, feasible, reliable, and cost-effective monitoring methods. We evaluate an index method developed for monitoring populations of moose (Alces alces) based on voluntarily and systematically collected observations from hunters, corrected for effort, for use in monitoring populations of large carnivores in Sweden. For our evaluation, we used independent estimates of minimum brown bear (Ursus arctos) densities from DNA-based scat surveys and brown bear distribution from mandatory reports from successful bear hunters. We verified that the index correctly reflected bear distribution. We also found strong linear relationships between the indices and the independent density estimates for bears at the scale of local management units (about 1000-2000 km²) in all three regional study areas (adjusted R² = 0.88-0.60). Our results suggest that systematic, effort-corrected reports of observed animals can be an alternative and accurate monitoring method for the conservation and management of large mammals occurring over large areas when large numbers of willing volunteers are available (effort >30,000 h).     

Human-wildlife conflicts influence attitudes but not necessarily behaviors: Factors driving the poaching of bears in China

Human-wildlife conflicts often spur retaliatory killing, which may be a major threat to some wildlife species. Asiatic black bears depredate crops and livestock and also attack humans. We investigated whether human–bear conflicts in Sichuan Province, southwestern China, resulted in increased bear poaching. We conducted semi-structured interviews within 429 15 × 15-km cells across the province, asking villagers about bear occurrence, population trends, attitudes toward bears, human–bear conflicts, responses to bear damage, and bear poaching. Bears raided crops (n = 174 cells), killed livestock (n = 114 cells), and attacked people (n = 49 cells). Fifty percent and 43% of villagers held negative and neutral attitudes toward bears, respectively; attitudes were more negative among people who had previous interactions with bears or lived where bear encounters were more likely. Although killing bears was illegal, villagers in 117 cells (38%) indicated that bear poaching occurred around their villages. However, killing bears was not significantly linked to damage: indeed, killing was more common in areas without human–bear conflicts. Poachers killed bears mainly for trade of their valuable parts (gall bladder and paws, 78.5%). Tibetan people experienced bear damage and also had negative attitudes toward bears, but reported less poaching than Han or Yi people, due to their religious beliefs. Our study indicated that human-wildlife conflicts shaped people’s attitudes toward bears, but strong economic incentives, not attitudes, prompted illegal killing. Whereas mitigation of human–bear conflicts could help foster more positive attitudes toward bears and the nature reserves that protect bears, this strategy will not remove the primary threat against this species.     

Demographic consequences of anthropogenic influences: Florida black bears in north-central Florida

Anthropogenic habitat fragmentation poses a serious threat to conservation of large carnivores, due to their extensive movements and potential conflicts with humans. We studied the population ecology of Florida black bears (Ursus americanus floridanus) for 6 years in two study areas in north-central Florida: Ocala National Forest (ONF), a contiguous forested habitat, and an adjacent residential community of Lynne, a fragmented habitat with substantial human activities. We estimated age-specific survival and fecundity rates of bears using data from radio-collared bears, and parameterized and analyzed stage-structured matrix population models for the two study sites and also for data pooled from both sites. Annual survival rates of adult females were lower in Lynne (0.776 ± 0.074) than in ONF (0.966 ± 0.023). While cub survival rates were higher in Lynne (0.507 ± 0.135) than in ONF (0.282 ± 0.109), the rates at both sites were substantially lower than those reported for other black bear populations. Age-specific fecundities did not vary between sites. The asymptotic population growth rate for ONF was greater than one, whereas that for Lynne was less than one. Our results suggest that anthropogenic influences (primarily road density and vehicular traffic, through their effect on adult survival) can substantially affect the population dynamics of Florida black bears and other large carnivores with large home ranges. We recommend efforts such as constructing highway underpasses, which could reduce road-related mortalities, to ensure long-term persistence of Florida black bears facing threats from rapidly increasing human influences.     

Grizzly bear response to human development and activities in the Bow River Watershed, Alberta, Canada

Few studies have reported the effects of multiple human activities on grizzly bears, Ursus arctos. We document the degree of grizzly bear response to various human developments as a function of multiple interacting variables based on observed median distances to roads, trails and development features in a landscape where human presence is widespread. Female grizzly bears remained further than males from paved roads regardless of habitat quality or time of day. Males were found closer to paved roads when within or adjacent to high quality habitat and during the period of least human activity. The combination of traffic volume and highway configuration, however, overrides a bear’s attraction to high quality habitats for high-speed, high-volume, highways. Avoidance of busy transportation corridors was strongest in the adult segment of the population. Bears were found closer to trails during the human inactive period when within high quality habitat and further from trails when distant to high quality habitat. Our data indicated an inverse relationship between the sexes in response to vehicles and traffic noise compared to the response to human settlement and encountering people. Female bears were found further away than males in relation to vehicles and traffic noise, yet found closer than males to human settlement and places where people may be encountered. Those males that were more willing to exploit high quality habitat near roads, did so at night and where hiding cover was present. Adult females were the most risk-averse cohort, choosing to avoid humans instead of seeking out high quality habitats. Adult female grizzly bears were influenced most by human activities and development. Management agencies must maintain access to high quality habitat, especially for adult females, and create new opportunities to support the reproductive potential of the population.     

Dynamic wildlife habitat models: Seasonal foods and mortality risk predict occupancy-abundance and habitat selection in grizzly bears

Most current wildlife habitat models, such as resource selection functions, typically assume a static environment, extrapolate poorly in space and time, and often lack linkages to population processes. We submit that more mechanistic habitat models that directly consider bottom-up resources affecting growth and reproduction (i.e., food) and top-down limitations affecting survival are needed to effectively predict habitat quality, especially in the presence of rapid environmental change. Here we present a general model for estimating potential habitat quality (relating to growth and reproduction) and realised habitat quality (accounting for survival) using basic knowledge of the species’ seasonal diet, predicted locations of food resource patches and regional patterns in mortality risk. We illustrate our model for a threatened population of grizzly bears in west-central Alberta. Bi-monthly potential habitat quality successfully predicted habitat selection by radio-collared grizzly bears, while multi-seasonal realised habitat quality predicted patterns in occupancy-abundance as measured from unique bears at hair-snag sites. Bottom-up resources therefore predicted patterns of habitat selection, while top-down processes (survival) were necessary to scale-up to population measures. We suggest that more direct measures of resources and environments that affect growth, reproduction and survival, as well as match the temporal scale of animal behaviour, be considered when developing wildlife habitat models.     

Estimating occupancy of a data deficient mammalian species living in tropical rainforests: Sun bears in the Kerinci Seblat region, Sumatra

Tropical mammals represent some of the most threatened species, but also the least known because they tend to be difficult to study. To objectively evaluate the conservation status of these species, standardized methods are urgently required. The sun bear Helarctos malayanus is a case in point: it is cryptic, difficult to detect and consequently classified on the IUCN Red List as Data Deficient, and the highest priority for bear conservation research. In this study, we apply a detection/non-detection sampling technique using camera trap data with environmental covariates to estimate sun bear occupancy from three tropical forest study areas with different levels of degradation and protection status in Sumatra. Sun bear detections, and encounter rates, were highest in one of the primary forest study areas, but sun bear occupancy was highest in the degraded forest study area. Whilst, sun bears were recorded at a greater proportion of camera placements in degraded forest, these records were often on only one occasion at each placement, which greatly increased the final occupancy estimate. Primary forests with their large fruiting trees undoubtedly represent good sun bear habitat, but our results indicate that degraded forest can also represent important habitat. These forests should therefore not be considered as having limited conservation value and assigned to other uses, such as oil palm production, as has previously happened in Sumatra. Estimating occupancy between years will yield information on the population trends of sun bears and other tropical mammals, which can be used to provide more reliable conservation assessments.     

Unexpected high levels of genetic variability and the population structure of an island endemic rodent (Oryzomys couesi cozumelae)

Oryzomys couesi cozumelae is an endemic, threatened rodent from Cozumel Island, Mexico. We estimated its genetic diversity and structure by analyzing microsatellite loci in 228 samples from 12 sampling sites widely distributed throughout the island. Unexpected high levels of genetic and allelic diversity were found: a total of 54 alleles, an average of 10.8 alleles per locus, and high heterozygosity values (mean H_O = 0.624, H_E = 0.690 and H_Nei = 0.689). These values are higher than those reported for small sized insular mammals, higher than that found in 37 individuals of the mainland O. couesi from southern Mexico (H_O = 0.578) that we analyzed for comparative purposes, and similar to those of other mainland small mammal populations. Despite factors that affect Cozumel’s biota, such as exotic predators and competitors, hurricanes, seasonal population fluctuations and anthropogenic activities, no evidence of genetic bottlenecks was found. A significant population structure was observed and a model of isolation-by-distance was supported. Our findings render O. c. cozumelae a high conservation value, not only for its high genetic diversity and structure, but because available data suggests that its population has declined significantly in recent years. Further habitat fragmentation and population isolation could result in a higher genetic structure and loss of genetic diversity. The protection of habitat, the maintenance of habitat connectivity and the removal of introduced competitors and predators are a conservation priority. Acknowledging that the genetic structure of populations has crucial conservation implications, the present genetic information should be taken into account in management plans for the conservation of O. c. cozumelae.     

Dynamics of public attitudes toward bears and the role of bear hunting in Croatia

Successful carnivore conservation depends on public attitudes and acceptance levels of carnivores, and these are likely to change as circumstances change. Attitude studies repeated in time that can demonstrate such change are rare. Our study surveyed Croatian rural inhabitants in 2002 and in 2008 and analyzed their responses to detect a change in attitudes toward brown bears (Ursus arctos) over time. Important developments occurring in Croatia at the time of our research included a more centralized and more clearly defined bear management strategy, and an increase in the bear population. We constructed models to explain respondent’s value orientations, their level of perceived threat and their acceptance capacity for bears. Findings show that while value orientations and the overall level of perceived threat did not change over time, bear acceptance capacity was reduced. This suggests that the increase in the bear population and perhaps the more centralized bear management reduced respondents’ willingness to accept a larger bear population. We conclude that continuous public involvement in bear management is essential in order to maintain a feeling of control over the bear among the local population. Furthermore we argue that hunting is an important form of public involvement in the region, serving to reinforce existence and bequest values of the bear and increase its public acceptance.     

Recovering marbled murrelets via corvid management: A population viability analysis approach

The expansion of human activities into rural areas and natural landscapes has resulted in widespread increases in the abundance of synanthropic species that threaten rarer native species. Quantitative assessments of how much impacts need to be reduced to reach acceptable levels of risk to the affected species are rarely conducted prior to the implementation of control measures, and it is perhaps not surprising that many efforts have not yielded the desired outcome. Here, we used matrix-based population viability analysis models to show that reducing predation by rapidly growing corvid populations on marbled murrelet (Brachyramphus marmoratus) nests likely constitutes an effective means for recovering a declining murrelet population in central California. For example, a modest 40% reduction in predation reduced extinction risk dramatically from 95.8% to 4.6% over 100 years and a 60% reduction resulted in a stable population (λ = 1) when the proportion of breeders, renesting rates, and corvid predation rates were assumed to be 0.77, 0.13, and 0.69, respectively. However, nest predation would only need to be reduced by 40% to produce a stable population if corvid management was coupled with a modest increase in after-hatch-year survival from 0.896 to 0.910. Corvid control resulted in greater gains in murrelet population size when the maximum number of breeders was allowed to increase over the projection period, as might be expected if the amount of old-growth nesting habitat increased over time, but extinction risk was insensitive to the presence of a carrying capacity. Approximately half of known murrelet nests in central California are within 1 km of heavily used campgrounds in a single state park, indicating that significant gains in viability could be achieved by targeting efforts in small areas providing corvid food subsidies. Risk assessments such as ours can provide quantitative prioritization rationale for efforts intended to mitigate the impacts of synanthropic species on threatened species.     

Hatch size, somatic growth rate and size-dependent survival in the endangered ploughshare tortoise

Successful conservation requires a good understanding of both the direct and indirect causes of any decline in population size. Harvests of wild populations often target the largest, oldest individuals that have the greatest economic value. If these individuals contribute disproportionately more to recruitment than conspecifics, the harvest will cause a greater reduction in population viability than initially anticipated. The ploughshare tortoise, endemic to Madagascar, has been reduced to <600 individuals due to exploitation and habitat loss. A trial release of captive-bred juveniles has been carried out but the relative suitability of individuals for release, in terms of body size, was not considered. Using data from a long-term mark-recapture study of an unharvested wild population of ploughshare tortoises, we found that larger juveniles were significantly more likely to survive their first year of life than smaller tortoises. Juveniles that survived beyond their first year of life generally grew at the same rate, but had a significantly larger hatch size (mean = 41.7 mm), compared with juveniles that did not survive (mean = 39.3 mm). The conservation implications of these results are that release of captive-bred ploughshare tortoises is likely to be more successful if larger individuals are released. Previous studies have reported larger female ploughshare tortoises laying larger eggs which hatch larger juveniles. This study shows individuals with a larger hatch size retain their size advantage over smaller conspecifics and are more likely to survive their first year of life. This suggests a harvest that targets the largest females in the ploughshare tortoise population could be highly detrimental to population viability.     

Landscape evaluation of female black bear habitat effectiveness and capability in the North Cascades, Washington

We used logistic regression to derive scaled resource selection functions (RSFs) for female black bears at two study areas in the North Cascades Mountains. We tested the hypothesis that the influence of roads would result in potential habitat effectiveness (RSFs without the influence of roads) being greater than realized habitat effectiveness (RSFs with roads). Roads consistently had a negative influence on black bear RSFs across seasons and study areas. Roads reduced habitat effectiveness during all seasons at both study areas and changes in the potential habitat values ranged from 1.7% to 16.9%. The greatest reduction in habitat values occurred during the early-season on the west-side study area due to high open road densities. These results support the hypothesis that roads reduce habitat effectiveness for black bears. The influence of roads could be reduced through road closures to reduce open road densities and limit traffic volumes. We then used the scaled RSFs in a habitat-based population model to assess the influences of timber harvest and roads on potential black bear population sizes. On the west-side study area the potential black bear population size was most influenced by moderate use roads and timber harvest during the early-season (41% reduction). On the east-side study area, low use roads had the greatest effect on potential black bear population during the early-season (10% reduction). During the late-season, in both study areas, roads had less influence on the potential population sizes as bears were able to access habitats away from roads. The habitat-population model provided reasonable estimates of bear densities compared to other study areas with similar habitats and could be extrapolated to estimate potential black bear populations in other areas with similar habitats. This approach may provide a useful link between the landscape ecology and population biology of black bears, and could eventually be useful in the development of habitat-based population viability analyses.