Bottom-up control of a northern Arizona ponderosa pine forest fire regime in a fragmented landscape

Fire regimes often vary at fine spatial scales in response to factors such as topography or fuels while climate usually synchronizes fires across broader scales. We investigated the relative influence of top-down and bottom-up controls on fire occurrence in ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) forests in a highly fragmented landscape at Mount Dellenbaugh, in northwestern Arizona. Our study area of 4,000?ha was characterized by patches of ponderosa pine forest in drainages that were separated by a matrix of pinyon?Cjuniper woodlands, sagebrush shrublands, and perennial grasslands. We reconstructed fire histories from 135 fire-scarred trees in sixteen 25-ha sample sites placed in patches of mature ponderosa forest. We found that, among patches of ponderosa forest, fires were similar in terms of frequency but highly asynchronous in terms of individual years. Climate synchronized fire but only across broader spatial scales. Fires occurring at broader scales were associated with dry years that were preceded by several wet years. The remarkable level of asynchrony at finer scales suggests that bottom-up factors, such as site productivity and fuel continuity, were important in regulating fire at Mount Dellenbaugh. Understanding where bottom-up controls were historically influential is important for prioritizing areas that may best respond to fuel treatment under a warming climate.     

Landscape dynamics in crown fire ecosystems

Crown fires create broad-scale patterns in vegetation by producing a patch mosaic of stand age classes, but the spread and behavior of crown fires also may be constrained by spatial patterns in terrain and fuels across the landscape. In this review, we address the implications of landscape heterogeneity for crown fire behavior and the ecological effects of crown fires over large areas. We suggest that fine-scale mechanisms of fire spread can be extrapolated to make broad-scale predictions of landscape pattern by coupling the knowledge obtained from mechanistic and empirical fire behavior models with spatially-explicit probabilistic models of fire spread. Climatic conditions exert a dominant control over crown fire behavior and spread, but topographic and physiographic features in the landscape and the spatial arrangement and types of fuels have a strong influence on fire spread, especially when burning conditions (e.g., fuel moisture and wind) are not extreme. General trends in crown fire regimes and stand age class distributions can be observed across continental, latitudinal, and elevational gradients. Crown fires are more frequent in regions having more frequent and/or severe droughts, and younger stands tend to dominate these landscapes. Landscapes dominated by crown fires appear to be nonequilibrium systems. This nonequilibrium condition presents a significant challenge to land managers, particularly when the implications of potential changes in the global climate are considered. Potential changes in the global climate may alter not only the frequency of crown fires but also their severity. Crown fires rarely consume the entire forest, and the spatial heterogeneity of burn severity patterns creates a wide range of local effects and is likely to influence plant reestablishment as well as many other ecological processes. Increased knowledge of ecological processes at regional scales and the effects of landscape pattern on fire dynamics should provide insight into our understanding of the behavior and consequences of crown fires.     

Spatial patterns of large natural fires in Sierra Nevada wilderness areas

The effects of fire on vegetation vary based on the properties and amount of existing biomass (or fuel) in a forest stand, weather conditions, and topography. Identifying controls over the spatial patterning of fire-induced vegetation change, or fire severity, is critical in understanding fire as a landscape scale process. We use gridded estimates of fire severity, derived from Landsat ETM+ imagery, to identify the biotic and abiotic factors contributing to the observed spatial patterns of fire severity in two large natural fires. Regression tree analysis indicates the importance of weather, topography, and vegetation variables in explaining fire severity patterns between the two fires. Relative humidity explained the highest proportion of total sum of squares throughout the Hoover fire (Yosemite National Park, 2001). The lowest fire severity corresponded with increased relative humidity. For the Williams fire (Sequoia/Kings Canyon National Parks, 2003) dominant vegetation type explains the highest proportion of sum of squares. Dominant vegetation was also important in determining fire severity throughout the Hoover fire. In both fires, forest stands that were dominated by lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) burned at highest severity, while red fir (Abies magnifica) stands corresponded with the lowest fire severities. There was evidence in both fires that lower wind speed corresponded with higher fire severity, although the highest fire severity in the Williams fire occurred during increased wind speed. Additionally, in the vegetation types that were associated with lower severity, burn severity was lowest when the time since last fire was fewer than 11 and 17 years for the Williams and Hoover fires, respectively. Based on the factors and patterns identified, managers can anticipate the effects of management ignited and naturally ignited fires at the forest stand and the landscape levels.     

Some determinants of the spatio-temporal fire cycle in a mediterranean landscape (Corsica,France)

Based on recent needs to accurately understand fire regimes and post-fire vegetation resilience at a supra-level for carbon cycle studies, this article focusses on the coupled history of fire and vegetation pattern for 40 years on a fire-prone area in central Corsica (France). This area has been submitted since the beginning of the 20^th century to land abandonment and the remaining land management has been largely controlled by frequent fires. Our objectives were to rebuild vegetation and fire maps in order to determine the factors which have driven the spatial and temporal distribution of fires on the area, what were the feed backs on the vegetation dynamics, and the long-term consequences of this inter-relationship. The results show a stable but high frequency of small fires, coupled with forest expansion over the study period. The results particularly illustrate the spatial distribution of fires according to topography and vegetation, leading to a strong contrast between areas never burnt and areas which have been burnt up to 7 times. Fires, when occuring, affect on average 9 to 12% of the S, SE and SW facing slopes (compared to only 2 to 5% for the N facing slopes), spread recurrently over ridge tops, affect all the vegetation types but reburn preferentially shrublands and grasslands. As these fire-proning parameters have also been shown to decrease the regeneration capacity of forests, this study highlights the needs in spatial studies (both in terms of fire spread and vegetation dynamic) to accurately apprehend vegetation dynamic and functionning in fire-prone areas.This revised version was published online in May 2005 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Anthropogenic influences on potential fire spread in a pyrogenic ecosystem of Florida, USA

Fire has historically been an important ecological factor maintaining southeastern U.S. vegetation. Humans have altered natural fire regimes by fragmenting fuels, introducing exotic species, and suppressing fires. Little is known about how these alterations specifically affect spatial fire extent and pattern. We applied historic (1920 and 1943) and current (1990) GIS fuels maps and the FARSITE fire spread model to quantify the differences between historic and current fire spread distributions. We held all fire modeling variables (wind speed and direction, cloud cover, precipitation, humidity, air temperature, fuel moistures, ignition source and location) constant with exception of the fuel models representing different time periods. Model simulations suggest that fires during the early 1900's burned freely across the landscape, while current fires are much smaller, restricted by anthropogenic influences. Fire extent declined linearly with patch density, and there was a quadratic relationship between fire extent and percent landscape covered by anthropogenic features. We found that as little as 10 percent anthropogenic landcover caused a 50 percent decline in fire extent. Most landscapes (conservation or non-conservation areas) are now influenced by anthropogenic features which disrupt spatial fire behavior disproportionately to their actual size. These results suggest that land managers using fire to restore or maintain natural ecosystem function in pyrogenic systems will have to compensate for anthropogenic influences in their burn planning. This revised version was published online in May 2005 with corrections to the Cover Date. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Long-term,landscape patterns of past fire events in a montane ponderosa pine forest of central Colorado

Parameters of fire regimes, including fire frequency, spatial extent of burned areas, fire severity, and season of fire occurrence, influence vegetation patterns over multiple scales. In this study, centuries-long patterns of fire events in a montane ponderosa pine – Douglas-fir forest landscape surrounding Cheesman Lake in central Colorado were reconstructed from fire-scarred trees and inferences from forest stand ages. We crossdated 153 fire-scarred trees from an approximately 4000 ha study area that recorded 77 total fire years from 1197 to the present. Spatial extent of burned areas during fire years varied from the scale of single trees or small clusters of trees to fires that burned across the entire landscape. Intervals between fire years varied from 1 to 29 years across the entire landscape to 3 to 58 years in one stand, to over 100 years in other stands. Large portions of the landscape did not record any fire for a 128 year-long period from 1723 to 1851. Fire severity varied from low-intensity surface fires to large-scale, stand-destroying fires, especially during the 1851 fire year but also possibly during other years. Fires occurred throughout tree growing seasons and both before and after growing seasons. These results suggest that the fire regime has varied considerably across the study area during the past several centuries. Since fires influence plant establishment and mortality on the landscape, these results further suggest that vegetation patterns changed at multiple scales during this period. The fire history from Cheesman Lake documents a greater range in fire behavior in ponderosa pine forests than generally has been found in previous studies.     

Modeling fire and landform influences on the distribution of old-growth pinyon-juniper woodland

Expansion of Pinus and Juniperus species into shrub steppe in semi-arid regions of the western United States has been widely documented and attributed in part to fire exclusion. If decreased fire frequency has been an important cause of woodland expansion, one would expect to find age structures dominated by younger trees on more fire-prone sites, with old-growth pinyon-juniper woodland limited to sites with lower fire risk. We compared current old-growth distribution with spatial models for fire risk in a 19-km² watershed in central Nevada, USA. Multiple GIS models were developed to represent fire susceptibility, according to abiotic factors representing fuels and topographic barriers to fire spread. We also developed cellular automata models to generate fire susceptibility surfaces that additionally account for neighborhood effects. Rule-based GIS models failed to predict old-growth distribution better than random models. Cellular automata models incorporating spatial heterogeneity of site productivity predicted old-growth distribution better than random models but with low accuracy, ranging from 58% agreement at the single-pixel (0.09-ha) scale to 80% agreement for 20-pixel neighborhoods. The best statistical model for predicting old-growth occurrence included the negative effect of topographic convergence index (local wetness), and the positive effects of solar insolation and proximity to rock outcrops. Results support the hypothesis that old-growth woodlands in the Great Basin are more likely to occur on sites with low fire risk. However, weak relationships suggest that old-growth woodlands have not been confined to fire-safe sites. Conservation efforts should consider the landscape context of old-growth woodlands across a broad landscape, with an emphasis on conserving landscape variability in tree age structure.     

Mapping the probability of large fire occurrence in northern Arizona, USA

In the southwestern U.S., wildland fire frequency and area burned have steadily increased in recent decades, a pattern attributable to multiple ignition sources. To examine contributing landscape factors and patterns related to the occurrence of large (⩾20 ha in extent) fires in the forested region of northern Arizona, we assembled a database of lightning- and human-caused fires for the period 1 April to 30 September, 1986–2000. At the landscape scale, we used a weights-of-evidence approach to model and map the probability of occurrence based on all fire types (n = 203), and lightning-caused fires alone (n = 136). In total, large fires burned 101,571 ha on our study area. Fires due to lightning were more frequent and extensive than those caused by humans, although human-caused fires burned large areas during the period of our analysis. For all fires, probability of occurrence was greatest in areas of high topographic roughness and lower road density. Ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa)-dominated forest vegetation and mean annual precipitation were less important predictors. Our modeling results indicate that seasonal large fire events are a consequence of non-random patterns of occurrence, and that patterns generated by these events may affect the regional fire regime more extensively than previously thought. Identifying the factors that influence large fires will improve our ability to target resource protection efforts and manage fire risk at the landscape scale.     

Using a stochastic model and cross-scale analysis to evaluate controls on historical low-severity fire regimes

Fire-scarred trees provide a deep temporal record of historical fire activity, but identifying the mechanisms therein that controlled landscape fire patterns is not straightforward. We use a spatially correlated metric for fire co-occurrence between pairs of trees (the Sørensen distance variogram), with output from a neutral model for fire history, to infer the relative strength of top-down vs. bottom-up controls on historical fire regimes. An inverse modeling procedure finds combinations of neutral-model parameters that produce Sørensen distance variograms with statistical properties similar to those observed from two landscapes in eastern Washington, USA, with contrasting topography. We find the most parsimonious model structure that is able to replicate the observed patterns and the parameters of this model provide surrogates for the predominance of top-down vs. bottom-up controls. Simulations with relatively low spread probability produce irregular fire perimeters and variograms similar to those from the topographically complex landscape. With higher spread probabilities fires exhibit regular perimeters and variograms similar to those from the simpler landscape. We demonstrate that cross-scale properties of the fire-scar record, even without historical fuels and weather data, document how complex topography creates strong bottom-up controls on fire spread. This control is weaker in simpler topography, and may be compromised in a future climate with more severe weather events.     

Human influence on the abundance and connectivity of high-risk fuels in mixed forests of northern Wisconsin,USA

Though fire is considered a natural disturbance, humans heavily influence modern wildfire regimes. Humans influence fires both directly, by igniting and suppressing fires, and indirectly, by either altering vegetation, climate, or both. We used the LANDIS disturbance and succession model to compare the relative importance of a direct human influence (suppression of low intensity surface fires) with an indirect human influence (timber harvest) on the long-term abundance and connectivity of high-risk fuel in a 2791 km² landscape characterized by a mixture of northern hardwood and boreal tree species in northern Wisconsin. High risk fuels were defined as a combination of sites recently disturbed by wind and sites containing conifer species/cohorts that might serve as ladder fuel to carry a surface fire into the canopy. Two levels of surface fire suppression (high/current and low) and three harvest alternatives (no harvest, hardwood emphasis, and pine emphasis) were compared in a 2×3 factorial design using 5 replicated simulations per treatment combination over a 250-year period. Multivariate analysis of variance indicated that the landscape pattern of high-risk fuel (proportion of landscape, mean patch size, nearest neighbor distance, and juxtaposition with non fuel sites) was significantly influenced by both surface fire suppression and by forest harvest (p > 0.0001). However, the two human influences also interacted with each other (p < 0.001), because fire suppression was less likely to influence fuel connectivity when harvest disturbance was simultaneously applied. Temporal patterns observed for each of seven conifer species indicated that disturbances by either fire or harvest encouraged the establishment of moderately shade-tolerant conifer species by disturbing the dominant shade tolerant competitor, sugar maple. Our results conflict with commonly reported relationships between fire suppression and fire risk observed within the interior west of the United States, and illustrate the importance of understanding key interactions between natural disturbance, human disturbance, and successional responses to these disturbance types that will eventually dictate future fire risk.This revised version was published online in May 2005 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Drivers and trends in landscape patterns of stand-replacing fire in forests of the US Northern Rocky Mountains (1984–2010)

Context

Resilience in fire-prone forests is strongly affected by landscape burn-severity patterns, in part by governing propagule availability around stand-replacing patches in which all or most vegetation is killed. However, little is known about drivers of landscape patterns of stand-replacing fire, or whether such patterns are changing during an era of increased wildfire activity.

Objectives

(a) Identify key direct/indirect drivers of landscape patterns of stand-replacing fire (e.g., size, shape of patches), (b) test for temporal trends in these patterns, and (c) anticipate thresholds beyond which landscape patterns of burn severity may change fundamentally.

Methods

We applied structural equation modeling to satellite burn-severity maps of fires in the US Northern Rocky Mountains (1984–2010) to test for direct and indirect (via influence on fire size and proportion stand-replacing) effects of climate/weather, vegetation, and topography on landscape patterns of stand-replacing fire. We also tested for temporal trends in landscape patterns.

Results

Landscape patterns of stand-replacing fire were strongly controlled by fire size and proportion stand-replacing, which were, in turn, controlled by climate/weather and vegetation/topography, respectively. From 1984 to 2010, the proportion of stand-replacing fire within burn perimeters increased from 0.22 to 0.27. Trends for other landscape metrics were not significant, but may respond to further increases proportion stand-replacing fire.

Conclusions

Fires from 1984 to 2010 exhibited tremendous heterogeneity in landscape patterns of stand-replacing fire, likely promoting resilience in burned areas. If trends continue on the current trajectory, however, fires may produce larger and simpler shaped patches of stand-replacing fire with more burned area far from seed sources.

     

Influence of forest management alternatives and land type on susceptibility to fire in northern Wisconsin,USA

We used the LANDIS disturbance and succession model to study the effects of six alternative vegetation management scenarios on forest succession and the subsequent risk of canopy fire on a 2791 km² landscape in northern Wisconsin, USA. The study area is a mix of fire-prone and fire-resistant land types. The alternatives vary the spatial distribution of vegetation management activities to meet objectives primarily related to forest composition and recreation. The model simulates the spatial dynamics of differential reproduction, dispersal, and succession patterns using the vital attributes of species as they are influenced by the abiotic environment and disturbance. We simulated 50 replicates of each management alternative and recorded the presence of species age cohorts capable of sustaining canopy fire and the occurrence of fire over 250 years. We combined these maps of fuel and fire to map the probability of canopy fires across replicates for each alternative. Canopy fire probability varied considerably by land type. There was also a subtle, but significant effect of management alternative, and there was a significant interaction between land type and management alternative. The species associated with high-risk fuels (conifers) tend to be favored by management alternatives with more disturbances, whereas low disturbance levels favor low-risk northern hardwood systems dominated by sugar maple. The effect of management alternative on fire risk to individual human communities was not consistent across the landscape. Our results highlight the value of the LANDIS model for identifying specific locations where interacting factors of land type and management strategy increase fire risk.This revised version was published online in May 2005 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Forest succession and climate variability interacted to control fire activity over the last four centuries in an Alaskan boreal landscape

Context

The boreal forest is globally important for its influence on Earth’s energy balance, and its sensitivity to climate change. Ecosystem functioning in boreal forests is shaped by fire activity, so anticipating the impacts of climate change requires understanding the precedence for, and consequences of, climatically induced changes in fire regimes. Long-term records of climate, fire, and vegetation are critical for gaining this understanding.

Objectives

We investigated the relative importance of climate and landscape flammability as drivers of fire activity in boreal forests by developing high-resolution records of fire history, and characterizing their centennial-scale relationships to temperature and vegetation dynamics.

Methods

We reconstructed the timing of fire activity in interior Alaska, USA, using seven lake-sediment charcoal records spanning CE 1550–2015. We developed individual and composite records of fire activity, and used correlations and qualitative comparisons to assess relationships with existing records of vegetation and climate.

Results

Our records document a dynamic relationship between climate and fire. Fire activity and temperature showed stronger coupling after ca. 1900 than in the preceding 350 yr. Biomass burning and temperatures increased concurrently during the second half of the twentieth century, to their highest point in the record. Fire activity followed pulses in black spruce establishment.

Conclusions

Fire activity was facilitated by warm temperatures and landscape-scale dominance of highly flammable mature black spruce, with a notable increase in temperature and fire activity during the twenty-first century. The results suggest that widespread burning at landscape scales is controlled by a combination of climate and vegetation dynamics that together drive flammability.

     

Spatial attributes of fire regime in eastern Canada: influences of regional landscape physiography and climate

The characterization of the fire regime in the boreal forest rarely considers spatial attributes other than fire size. This study investigates the spatial attributes of fires using the physiography of the landscape as a spatial constraint at a regional scale. Using the Canadian National Fire Database, the size, shape, orientation and eccentricity were assessed for 1,136 fires between 1970 and 2010 in Quebec’s boreal forest and were summarized by ecodistrict. These spatial metrics were used to cluster 33 ecodistricts into homogeneous fire zones and then to determine which environmental variables (climate, topography, hydrography, and surficial deposits) influence the spatial attributes of fires. Analyses showed that 28 out of 33 ecodistricts belonging to a given fire zone were spatially contiguous, suggesting that factors driving the spatial attributes of fire are acting at a regional scale. Indeed, the orientation and size of fires vary significantly among the zones and are driven by the spatial orientation of the landscape and the seasonal regional climate. In some zones, prevailing winds during periods conducive to fire events parallel to the orientation of the landscape may favour the occurrence of very large fires (>100,000 ha). Conversely, an orientation of the landscape opposite to the prevailing winds may act as a natural firebreak and limit the fire size and orientation. This study highlights the need to consider the synergistic relationship between the landscape spatial patterns and the climate regime over the spatial attributes of fire at supra-regional scale. Further scale-dependant studies are needed to improve our understanding of the spatial factors controlling the spatial attributes of fire.     

Determining landscape extent for succession and disturbance simulation modeling

Dividing regions into manageable landscape units presents special problems in landscape ecology and land management. Ideally, a landscape should be large enough to capture a broad range of vegetation, environmental and disturbance dynamics, but small enough to be useful for focused management objectives. The purpose of this study was to determine the optimal landscape size to summarize ecological processes for two large land areas in the southwestern United States. We used a vegetation and disturbance dynamics model, LANDSUMv4, to simulate a set of nine scenarios involving systematically varied topography, map resolution, and model parameterizations of fire size and fire frequency. Spatial input data were supplied by the LANDscape FIRE Management Planning System (LANDFIRE) prototype project, an effort that will provide comprehensive and scientifically credible mid-scale data to support the National Fire Plan. We analyzed output from 2,000 year simulations to determine the thresholds of landscape condition based on the variability of burned area and dominant vegetation coverage. Results show that optimal landscape extent using burned area variability is approximately 100 km² depending on topography, map resolution, and model parameterization. Variability of dominant vegetation area is generally higher and the optimal landscape sizes are larger in comparison to those features determined from burned area. Using the LANDFIRE project as a case study, we determined landscape size and map resolution for a large mapping project, and showed that optimal landscape size depends upon geographical, ecological, and management context. This paper was written and prepared by U.S. Government employees on official time, and therefore is in the public domain and not subject to copyright. The use of trade or firm names in this paper is for reader information and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Department of Agriculture of any product or service.     

Historical patterns of fire severity and forest structure and composition in a landscape structured by frequent large fires: Pumice Plateau ecoregion,Oregon, USA

Context

Lack of quantitative observations of extent, frequency, and severity of large historical fires constrains awareness of departure of contemporary conditions from those that demonstrated resistance and resilience to frequent fire and recurring drought.

Objectives

Compare historical and contemporary fire and forest conditions for a dry forest landscape with few barriers to fire spread.

Methods

Quantify differences in (1) historical (1700–1918) and contemporary (1985–2015) fire extent, fire rotation, and stand-replacing fire and (2) historical (1914–1924) and contemporary (2012) forest structure and composition. Data include 85,750-ha tree-ring reconstruction of fire frequency and extent; >?375,000-ha timber inventory following >?78,900-ha fires in 1918; and remotely-sensed maps of contemporary fire effects and forest conditions.

Results

Historically, fires?>?20,000 ha occurred every 9.5 years; fire rotation was 14.9 years; seven fires?>?40,469 ha occurred during extreme drought (PDSI <?? 4.0); and stand-replacing fire occurred primarily in lodgepole (Pinus contorta var. murrayana). In contemporary fires, only 5% of the ecoregion burned in 30 years, and stand-replacing fire occurred primarily in ponderosa (Pinus ponderosa) and mixed-conifer. Historically, density of conifers?>?15 cm dbh exceeded 120 trees/ha on?<?5% of the area compared to 95% currently.

Conclusions

Frequent, large, low-severity fires historically maintained open-canopy ponderosa and mixed-conifer forests in which large fire- and drought-tolerant trees were prevalent. Stand-replacing patches in ponderosa and mixed-conifer were rare, even in fires >?40,469 ha (minimum size of contemporary “megafires”) during extreme drought. In this frequent-fire landscape, mixed-severity fire historically influenced lodgepole and adjacent forests. Lack of large, frequent, low-severity fires degrades contemporary forest ecosystems.

     

Simulating fire frequency and urban growth in southern California coastal shrublands,USA

Fire is an important natural disturbance in the Mediterranean-climate coastal shrublands of southern California. However, anthropogenic ignitions have increased fire frequency to the point that it threatens the persistence of some shrub species and favors the expansion of exotic annual grasses. Because human settlement is a primary driver of increased ignitions, we integrated a landscape model of disturbance and succession (LANDIS) with an urban growth model (UGM) to simulate the combined effects of urban development and high fire frequency on the distribution of coastal shrublands. We tested whether urban development would contribute to an expansion of the wildland-urban interface (WUI) and/or change in average fire return intervals and compared the relative impacts of direct habitat loss and altered fire regimes on functional vegetation types. We also evaluated two methods of integrating the simulation models. The development pattern predicted by the UGM was predominantly aggregated, which minimized the expansion of the WUI and increase in fire frequency, suggesting that fire risk may be higher at intermediate levels of urbanization due to the spatial arrangement of ignition sources and fuel. The comparison of model coupling methods illustrated how cumulative effects of repeated fires may occur gradually as urban development expands across the landscape. Coastal sage scrub species and resprouting chaparral were more susceptible to direct habitat loss, but increased fire frequency was more of a concern to obligate seeder species that germinate from a persistent seed bank. Simulating different scenarios of fire frequency and urban growth within one modeling framework can help managers locate areas of highest risk and determine which vegetation types are most vulnerable to direct habitat loss, altered fire regimes, or both.     

Do land cover changes shape sensitivity to forest fires in peri-urban areas?

The present study assesses the spatial distribution of selected land cover classes at two years (1975 and 2000) in a Mediterranean urban area (Athens, Greece) to test the hypothesis that land cover changes determine an increase in the sensitivity of landscape to forest fires on a regional scale. While urban and agricultural areas increased, although with different rates of growth, forests and semi-natural areas decreased in the study area. These changes are reflected in a significant increase of vegetation sensitivity to forest fires measured by the forest fire risk (FR) index developed in the framework of MEDALUS project. The cover classes which contributed the most to the increase of the FR index were crop mosaic, mixed agricultural-natural areas and discontinuous, low-density settlements. Results of the present study indicate that the transformation of the fringe landscape towards low-quality agricultural and pasture areas and fragmented forest patches is potentially detrimental for environmental quality and the ecological fragility of land.     

Influence of landscape structure,topography, and forest type on spatial variation in historical fire regimes,Central Oregon,USA

Context

In the interior Northwest, debate over restoring mixed-conifer forests after a century of fire exclusion is hampered by poor understanding of the pattern and causes of spatial variation in historical fire regimes.

Objectives

To identify the roles of topography, landscape structure, and forest type in driving spatial variation in historical fire regimes in mixed-conifer forests of central Oregon.

Methods

We used tree rings to reconstruct multicentury fire and forest histories at 105 plots over 10,393 ha. We classified fire regimes into four types and assessed whether they varied with topography, the location of fuel-limited pumice basins that inhibit fire spread, and an updated classification of forest type.

Results

We identified four fire-regime types and six forest types. Although surface fires were frequent and often extensive, severe fires were rare in all four types. Fire regimes varied with some aspects of topography (elevation), but not others (slope or aspect) and with the distribution of pumice basins. Fire regimes did not strictly co-vary with mixed-conifer forest types.

Conclusions

Our work reveals the persistent influence of landscape structure on spatial variation in historical fire regimes and can help inform discussions about appropriate restoration of fire-excluded forests in the interior Northwest. Where the goal is to restore historical fire regimes at landscape scales, managers may want to consider the influence of topoedaphic and vegetation patch types that could affect fire spread and ignition frequency.

     

Assessing Spatial Uncertainty Associated with Forest Fire Boundary Delineation

Uncertainty in managing forested landscapes arises from many sources, including complexities inherent in forest ecosystems and their disturbance processes. However, gaining knowledge about forested ecosystems at the landscape level is often impeded by limitations in collecting comprehensive, representative, as well as accurate data sets. Historical reference data sets about past disturbances are also mostly lacking. In the case of ground fires, however, records of past fires can be obtained by analyzing fire scars using dendrochronology. While the temporal series of disturbance can be determined, there is still uncertainty about the spatial limits of individual forest surface fires. Here, we investigate how a patch-based method (fuzzy set membership) and a boundary-based uncertainty method (boundary membership) can help determine the spatial uncertainty related to forest fire events and their boundary locations. We compare these methods using fire scar data from ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) and Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) sampled at 33 1-ha plots in a 1500-ha study area within the Stein River watershed (British Columbia). Patch-based fire maps, using multiple constraints, were derived for years 1785–1937. We compared the resulting total fire event maps with the boundary-based method, finding that depending on values chosen for the patch-based method, negative correlation was present (though very modest: r = − 0.1, p ≤ 0.05) between some maps. However, significant positive correlation between maps (though again modest: r = 0.22, p ≤ 0.05) was found under the least constrained patch-based methods, suggesting that fire patches are counted more than once in riparian zones. Our results suggest that these two methods provide complementary information about historical fire size and spatial limits. Quantifying spatial uncertainty about fire size and fire boundary location using a boundary membership method can contribute to not only understanding past fire regimes but also to providing better estimates of area burned.