气象因子对云南大理森林火灾的影响

本文选用2001年-2010年大理州的森林火灾次数与对应的气象数据进行统计分析,通过分析大理州森林火灾的时间分布及对应的气候特征,得出了火灾次数与气温和风速呈正相关、与相对湿度呈负相关的结论。用森林火灾次数与气象因子进行相关分析,结果表明月平均最高气温、平均相对湿度和平均最大风速与月火灾次数显著相关;旬平均最高气温、平均相对湿度和平均最大风速以及前两旬的累计降水量与旬火灾次数显著相关;日最高气温、平均相对湿度、最大风速和前15日累计降水量与日火灾次数显著相关。综合分析表明气温、降水、相对湿度和风速与大理州森林火灾次数有明显的相关性,气温、风速与火灾次数呈正相关,降水、相对湿度与火灾次数呈负相关。     

湖南省森林火险天气等级预测模型研究

为提高湖南省森林火险天气等级预测精度,降低空报和漏报比例,基于湖南省各县2005—2015年森林火灾数据及各县气象站对应的同期气象资料,利用变异系数方法确定了日最高气温、风速、相对湿度、降雨量等天气因子的分段区域,设定了各区域的得分值,并运用主成分分析方法确定了不同分段区域对湖南省森林火灾的影响权重,建立了加权森林火险天气指数模型,根据天气指数确定森林火险天气等级。经2015年森林火灾数据验证模型精度达到了74.2%,表明了该森林火险天气等级预测模型具有适用价值。     

云南省森林火灾发生驱动因子分析及火险区域划分

森林火灾的有效预测是减少火灾所造成损失的重要手段之一。云南省森林资源丰富且植被覆盖率高,易发生森林火灾,加之平均海拔较高,扑救山火难度大、危险系数高。如能有效构建该区域森林火灾发生预测模型,将为我国西南林区森林火灾预防与管理提供科学参考。提取了云南省1999—2019年森林火点数据进行分析,利用ArcGIS 10.7软件,随机建立与火点形成1∶1数据随机点,使数据符合二项分布,对月平均最高气温、月平均降水量、日照时长、海拔等24类驱动因子进行空间信息提取,并用SPSS 25.0软件通过Logistic回归和ROC曲线模型检验方法,分析影响云南省森林火灾发生的主要驱动因子,构建了该地区森林火灾发生预测模型,并验证了该模型适用性,根据ROC曲线坐标确定了最佳阈值,划分了该地区的高火险区域。月平均气压、月平均相对湿度、月平均最高气温、日照时数、极大风速、归一化植被指数值（NDVI）等6类驱动因子,与云南省森林火灾的发生存在显著关系,基于Logistic回归构建的森林火灾发生预测模型准确率可达到82.3%。模型AUC值为0.894,通过计算得出云南省火险划分最佳阈值为0.645。构建的森林火灾...     

武鸣县2001～2006年森林火灾数据的全回归分析与线性拟合

通过对广西武鸣县2001～2006年森林火灾资料的综合分析,发现当地森林火灾多发生在每年的9月至次年的1月,火灾多发生于每日的14～16时,起火原因多为人为原因,占83.3%.利用SPSS统计软件对广西武鸣县历年森林火灾及其对应的气象资料进行数据筛选和全回归分析,并对日最高气温、相对湿度、连续无雨日数、风速、林龄及火灾发生的月份进行线性拟合,建立了这六要素的森林火险天气预报模型.     

澄城县森林火险等级预报方法

通过分析认为森林火灾发生与否,发生后的蔓延和扩大与气象条件关系密切,并根据澄城县实际情况,筛选出日最高气温、最小相对湿度和24小时降水量作为森林火险等级预报的因子、风作为林火等级核查因子,确定森林火险等级和林火蔓延等级。经过近一年在实际工作中的运用,效果不错,能够较好的对林火天气预报预测。     

大兴安岭东部森林火灾发生的气候条件辨识

就大兴安岭东部森林火灾发生的气候条件进行了风险辨识,结论是:空气湿度是火险天气中的关键因素,相关系数为-0.81,表明湿度愈大火灾发生次数愈少,空气湿度小于60%时,就有发生森林火灾的可能,当相对湿度在35%￣50%之间时火灾发生次数较多。气温与森林火灾相关系数仅为0.36,当最高温度在-10￣10℃时是火灾发生的高峰期。风是森林火灾发生蔓延的重要因素,相关系数高达0.92。发生火灾时,当风速大于2.5m/s时,火灾蔓延开始加大。雷击火发生和蔓延的气候指标是平均气温为14￣20℃,降水量小于7mm,14时相对湿度15%￣38%,雷暴日数多于4天,平均风速2.5￣5.5m/s,14时风速大于3m/s。本着适用及着眼于近期与长远计划相结合的原则,选用了春季小于10mm降水日数、春季平均气温、地理因子、受灾面积、雷击火次数等7个因子进行了聚类分型,将火灾划分为3个区。     

基于粒子群算法和BP神经网络的多因素林火等级预测模型

针对现有小尺度林火预测模型预测结果有效性、可扩展性等方面的不足,通过考虑多种火险因素,构建BP神经网络预测模型以提高预测精度,在此基础上借助粒子群算法加快BP神经网络收敛速度,进而提出一种混成的多因素森林火险等级预测模型particle swarm optimization based back-propagation neural network (PSO-BP)。所构建的预测模型,能够同时考虑气候因素(日最高气温、日平均气温、24 h降水量、连旱天数、日照时数、日平均相对湿度、日平均风速)、地形地貌因素(海拔、坡度、坡向、土壤含水量)、可燃物因素(植被类型、可燃物含水率、地被物载量)、人为因素(人口密度、距人类活动区域的距离) 16个变量。基于南京林业大学下蜀林场森林防火实验站传感器网络所采集的实际数据及现场测量数据,通过一组试验验证提出模型的有效性。结果表明:基于训练数据集及检验样本所构建的模型能够开展有效的火险等级预测;模型的计算复杂度较单独使用BP神经网络模型明显下降。     

浙江省森林火险天气的预测预报

对浙江省10个典型县(市)森林火灾资料和相应气象要素值的调查收集,经综合分析,选择相对湿度、降水量、风速、温差、气温和风向6个因子的预报值,并按此计算火险天气等级的回归方程及修正值。据此,将浙江省的森林火险天气分为3大片按5个等级进行预测预报。     

山西省林火驱动因子及分布格局研究

【目的】研究山西省的林火驱动因子和火险分布格局,可为山西省森林防火工作提供参考。【方法】使用2010—2017年卫星监测热点数据,基于逻辑斯蒂模型和随机森林模型分析气象、地形、植被和人类活动对山西省林火发生的影响,选取山西省主要林火驱动因子,建立林火发生概率模型,并基于最优模型结果绘制山西省森林火险等级区划图,分析山西省森林火险分布格局。【结果】逻辑斯蒂模型选取的山西省主要林火驱动因子有日平均相对湿度、日照时数、日平均气温、日平均风速、海拔、坡度、距道路距离、距居民区距离;随机森林模型选取的山西省主要林火驱动因子有日平均地表气温、日平均气压、日平均相对湿度、日照时数、日平均气温、日平均风速、季度NDVI和GDP;逻辑斯蒂模型的预测准确率在84.31%～86.33%之间,随机森林模型的预测准确率在88.98%～94.37%之间。【结论】山西省主要林火驱动因子为气象因子;随机森林模型比逻辑斯蒂模型更适用于山西省林火发生概率的预测;山西省森林火险分布有明显的季节和地域差异,春季的高火险区明显多于其它季节,东部的高火险区多于西部,阳泉市、长治市、晋城市、忻州市东部、晋中市北部、吕梁市东南部和太原市中部是山西省主要高火险区。     

基于空间logistic的湖南省森林火灾风险评价

【目的】为科学地预防森林火灾和进行应急资源配置,运用空间logistic森林火灾风险概率模型对湖南省森林火灾风险等级进行划分,为县级以下区域进行森林火灾风险区划提供技术方法。【方法】采用logistic回归分析方法,利用湖南省2008—2018年的地表温度数据、植被指数数据、气象数据、人文数据、植被类型数据、森林火灾监测数据等,构建森林火灾风险概率模型,通过森林火灾风险概率分布区间对森林火灾风险等级进行划分。【结果】建立的湖南省空间logistic森林火灾风险概率模型拟合效果较好,在0.05的显著性水平下,经混合检验和Wald检验,logistic森林火灾风险概率模型能显著反映森林火险发生概率;模型相对运行特征(ROC)值为0.779;经栅格图层计算得到湖南省森林火灾风险概率值,并根据概率大小将湖南省森林火险分为极低、低、中、高和极高5个等级。湖南省森林火灾风险概率≥0.6的极高森林火险等级和高森林火险等级主要分布在邵阳市、衡阳市、永州市、株洲南部以及郴州市部分地区;中森林火险等级主要分布在怀化市、娄底市、湘潭市以及长沙市;低森林火险等级和极低森林火险等级主要分布在吉首市、常德市、张家界市、益阳市以及岳阳市。影响湖南省森林火险等级的主要因子为温度植被干旱指数(TVDI)、高程(GC)、年平均温度(TEM),其中TVDI因子的影响最为显著。【结论】构建的空间logistic森林火灾风险概率模型能够科学有效地对湖南省森林火灾风险等级进行划分,为森林火灾的预防和应急资源配置提供科学依据。     

Browsing Damage on Pine (Pinus sylvestris and P. contorta) by a migrating moose (Alces alces) Population in Winter: Relation to Habitat Composition and Road Barriers

In Scandinavia, moose (Alces alces L.) sometimes cause severe browsing damage to economically-important pine. Moose-vehicle accidents have spurred construction of fences along roads, and these may interfere with moose migration between summer and winter ranges, or the road alone may be a barrier. If this happens and moose build up along roads, landowners may suffer economically. Therefore, this study investigated whether roads, fences or other factors influence the use of young pine stands by moose. Eighty stands along roads in northern Sweden were evaluated in which individually-browsed branches were counted on 9972 pines. Moose browsing was not significantly related to birch (Betula pendula Roth, B. pubescens Ehrh.) density, nor did it differ between pines (Pinus contorta Douglas or P. sylvestris L.). However, increased pine density, site productivity and proximity to a highway were associated with increased browsing. Further large-scale studies are needed to understand moose habitat selection and the effects of roads.     

Effects of Root Freezing on the Physiology and Growth of Picea glauca,Picea mariana and Pinus banksiana Seedlings Under Different Soil Moisture Regimes

The root systems of 2-yr-old Picea glauca, Picea mariana and Pinus banksiana seedlings were submitted to various frost temperatures during an artificial frost to induce different levels of root damage. Frost-damaged and control seedlings were placed in a greenhouse under high and low soil moisture regimes. Seedling growth and physiology were evaluated periodically. Seedling survival was reduced when root damage reached levels of 60-80%. Root systems of all three species showed partial to total recovery by the end of the experiment. In general, root freezing damage caused reductions in seedling growth, with these reductions becoming less significant over time. Root damage had little to no effect on black spruce and jack pine seedling physiology, while white spruce CO 2 uptake decreased with increasing root damage. Shoot nitrogen content of all three species decreased slightly with increasing root damage.     

Stand Structure in Pine,Spruce and Deciduous Forests: A Comparison Between Finnish and Russian Karelia

This study investigated the stand structure in pine, spruce and deciduous forests in the border district of Finland and Russia. A total of 46 mature forest stands was selected as pairs, the members of each pair being as similar as possible with respect to their forest site type, age, moisture and topography. The stands were then compared between the two countries by means of basal areas and number of stems. The proportions of dominating tree species were 2-12% lower, and correspondingly the proportions of secondary tree species higher, in Russian forests. The density of the forest stock was also higher in each forest type in Russia. The forests in the two countries differed most radically in terms of the abundance of dead trees. The amount was two to four times higher in Russian deciduous and spruce forests, and in pine forests the difference was 10-fold. The stand structures indicated that Russian coniferous stands, in particular, were more heterogeneous than intensively managed pine and spruce stands in Finland.     

Growth and Terminal Bud Formation in Picea abies Seedlings Grown with Alternating Diurnal Temperature and Different Light Qualities

The root collar diameter and the height:diameter ratio are of particular importance in container-grown seedlings where a high density in the containers may produce spindly seedlings. Temperature regimes and light quality are known to affect plant growth. The aim of this study was to identify responses in Picea abies (L.) Karst. seedlings grown with light providing different red:far-red ratios and under temperature regimes with alternating day (DT) and night temperature (NT) from negative (DT < NT) to positive (DT > NT) difference (DIF) between DT and NT. Experiments were conducted in controlled environment chambers and in a daylight phytotron. Only limited thermoperiodic responses appeared in P . abies seedlings with respect to seedling height and dry weight accumulation. The formation of terminal buds, however, was clearly delayed in seedlings grown at negative DIF. The results indicate a requirement for day extension light that is high in far-red, to prevent terminal bud formation under natural short-day conditions. An extended study should be conducted to clarify the minimum level of light intensity and the optimal light quality needed to prevent terminal bud formation under natural short-day conditions.     

CAD与建筑设计的关系

本文分析了CAD在设计中引起的正面和负面影响,并进行了系统的阐述,从而使设计者在应用中能够保持客观的态度。     

Natural Regeneration in Clear-cuts: Effects of Scarification,Slash Removal and Clear-cut Age

The effects of soil scarification (mounding), slash removal and clear-cut age on the natural regeneration in clear-cuts was evaluated using data from four sites in southern Sweden. The treatments were carried out during a good seed and establishment year for birch ( Betula pubescens Ehrh. and B. pendula Roth). Scarification had the strongest positive effect on the density of naturally regenerated seedlings, especially in birch, but also in pine ( Pinus sylvestris L.) and spruce [ Picea abies (L.) Karst]. Slash removal had a positive effect on birch density. No statistically significant effect of clear-cut age was found. In addition, no statistically significant interactions between clear-cut age and scarification or slash removal were found. The ingrowth of field vegetation was the fastest in areas that were not scarified, less rapid in areas scarified on old clear-cuts, and the slowest after scarification in fresh clear-cuts. In conclusion, it may be possible to control the density of birch during a good establishment year for birch. If birch is desired, the best combination of treatments is to remove the slash and scarify; otherwise, these treatments should be avoided.     

Risk Perception Among Non-industrial Private Forest Owners

Based on an enquiry, risk perception among non-industrial private forest owners is described in relation to climate change and forestry hazards. Of the respondents, 11% took action to remedy the effects of climate change. Out of a given set, hazards were ranked according to each respondent's experience of recent substantial financial loss to the estate and in relation to his or her willingness to make investments aimed at risk reduction. For each hazard, the respondent assessed the risk in four classes ranging from very high to negligible risk. Six hazards were considered most problematic in all three aspects: browsing damage, falling timber prices, damage by wind, spruce bark beetle, root rot and pine weevil. A majority of the respondents claimed to take action to reduce the risk associated with at least one hazard, while 35% did not know whether they did. Excluding climate change, the need for decision support was the largest in relation to damage by wind owing to a combination of perceived high risk and a high level of ignorance in relation to whether risk-reducing measures were taken.     

Interactions in decomposition and N mineralization between tropical legume residue components

In situ produced plant residues contain a mixture of different plant components of varying quality. To assess synergistic or antagonistic interactions occurring during the decomposition and mineralization of such mixtures, individual plant parts (stems, leaves, leaf litter and roots) or the mixture of stems, leaves and leaf litter of the agroforestry species pigeonpea (Cajanus cajan) or of crop residues of peanut (Arachis hypogaea) or of the weed hairy indigo (Indigofera hirsuta) were incubated in pots for 19 weeks. Periodically, remaining plant residues were sieved out (>2 mm), weighed and N content as well as soil mineral N determined. Above- and below-ground residues of peanut decomposed fastest and showed the largest N release in agreement with their high N concentration and low-acid detergent fibre (ADF) : N ratio. Hairy indigo was hypothesized to be of lower quality than pigeonpea because of its high-polyphenol content. However, it decomposed faster than pigeonpea, largely because of the higher N and lower lignin concentration of its components. Ranking of individual plant components for N mineralization resulted in the following pattern, leaves > leaf litter > roots > stems. In mixtures of the different plant components a similar species order in decomposition was obtained, e.g. peanut > hairy indigo > pigeonpea. The amount of N released from the mixture was dominated by stem material that comprised 46–61% of the mixture. The interactions in mixtures were relatively small for peanut (generally high-quality components) as well as for pigeonpea (low proportion of high-quality components, i.e. N rich leaf material). However, a positive interaction occurred during later stages of N mineralization in the mixture of hairy indigo as it had a significant proportion of N rich components and absence of highly reactive polyphenols. Thus, for plants with low to intermediate chemical quality attributes, manipulating plant composition (e.g. by varying harvest age, affecting stem and leaf proportions) will be important to obtain significant interactions during decomposition when its components are mixed.     

Pasture production and tree growth in a young pine plantation fertilized with inorganic fertilizers and milk sewage in northwestern Spain

The use of organic waste materials such as milk sewage as an organic fertilizer could have the dual advantages of organic-waste disposal and reduced dependence on inorganic fertilizers. The effects of fertilization with (1) conventional mineral fertilization, (2) milk sewage sludge at 40 kg N ha⁻¹ target rate and (3) no fertilization on pasture production and tree growth were examined in an experiment consisting of two pasture mixtures under a one-year-old Pinus radiata plantation with a density of 2500 trees ha⁻¹. The two pasture mixtures were: (1) Dactylis glomerata L. var. saborto (25 kg ha⁻¹) + Trifolium repens L. group Ladino (4 kg ha⁻¹) + Trifolium pratense L. var. Marino (1 kg ha⁻¹); (2) Lolium perenne L. var. Tove (25 kg ha⁻¹) + Trifolium repens L. group Ladino (4 kg ha⁻¹) + Trifolium pratense L. var. Marino (1 kg ha⁻¹). The experiment began in the spring of 1995 using a randomized block design with three replicates in Castro Riberas de Lea (Lugo, Galicia, north-western Spain). Plot size was 12 × 8 m², with a 1 m buffer strip between plots. Two-year data showed that fertilization with either material had a positive effect on pasture production, with no significant difference between the two fertilization treatments. Tree growth in the milk sewage sludge plot was significantly higher than in the control plots. Inorganic fertilization increased pasture production, but affected tree growth negatively. The results show that milk sewage sludge could be used as a fertilizer in silvo-pastoral systems. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.