中国区域农业生产用能特征及经济效益研究

为全面反映我国不同区域农业生产用能特征和效率,以及对农业经济促进作用,文中对比分析了1990-2007年间全国及各地区农业生产用能水平、结构、变化趋势、利用效率、对农业贡献度及弹性系数等情况。结果表明,各地区农业生产用能水平从东往西逐渐减小;在用能结构中有机能依然占有一定份额,以西部地区最大,东部地区则更偏向于无机能使...     

土壤水分监测指标修订在内蒙古地区的应用

为了准确评估土壤水分盈亏状况,在墒情评估中引入土壤有效水下限概念,提出单站单标准的墒情评估体系。结果表明:内蒙古自动土壤水分观测站凋萎湿度和田间持水量整体偏高,区域主要集中在东部区、河套地区和阴山山脉,相对偏低区域主要在锡林郭勒盟和西部区,偏低区土地类型以草原和荒漠区为主。整体来看,相对凋萎湿度东部高于中西部,东部偏南最高;相对凋萎湿度(6.57%～55.15%)波动较大,在田间持水量至相对凋萎湿度之间根据等间距划分得到二类、三类墒情上限范围为68.86%～85.05%和37.71%～70.07%,地区间墒情标准等级差异较大,二、三类墒情从地理位置来看,东部区中部区西部区锡林郭勒盟草原区,从土地利用分区来看,农林区域要明显大于草原区,其中内蒙古中西部的乌兰察布—土默川农业区、阴山丘陵农业区、河套灌区要明显高于周边草原区。     

Drought and flood characteristics in the farming- pastoral ecotone of northern China based on the Standardized Precipitation Index

The farming-pastoral ecotone of northern China (FPENC) provides an important ecological barrier which restrains the invasion of desert into Northwest China. Studying drought and flood characteristics in the FPENC can provide scientific support and practical basis for the protection of the FPENC. Based on monthly precipitation data from 115 meteorological stations, we determined the changes in climate and the temporal and spatial variations of drought and flood occurrence in the FPENC during 1960-2020 using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Morlet wavelet transform, and inverse distance weighted interpolation method. Annual precipitation in the FPENC showed a slightly increasing trend from 1960 to 2020, with an increasing rate of about 1.15 mm/a. The interannual SPI exhibited obvious fluctuations, showing an overall non-significant upward trend (increasing rate of 0.02/a). Therefore, the study area showed a wetting trend in recent years. Drought and flood disasters mainly occurred on an interannual change cycle of 2-6 and 9-17 a, respectively. In the future, a tendency towards drought can be expected in the FPENC. The temporal and spatial distribution of drought and flood differed in the northwestern, northern, and northeastern segments of the FPENC, and most of the drought and flood disasters occurred in local areas. Severe and extreme drought disasters were concentrated in the northwestern and northeastern segments, and severe and extreme flood disasters were mainly in the northeastern segment. Drought was most frequent in the northwestern segment, the central part of the northeastern segment, and the northern part of the northern segment. Flood was most frequent in the western part of the northwestern segment, the eastern part of the northeastern segment, and the eastern and western parts of the northern segment. The accurate evaluation of the degrees of drought and flood disasters in the FPENC will provide scientific basis for the regional climate study and critical information on which to base decisions regarding environmental protection and socio-economic development in this region.     

西部各省区入境游客集聚扩散能力演变对比分析

运用入境游客集聚与扩散指数模型、GIS技术,对西部各省区入境游客集散能力进行演变对比分析。结果表明:1)西部各省集聚扩散指数均呈现波动态势,演变过程表现出明显的"峰林结构";入境旅游发展较好的陕西、云南、广西等省区集散指数演变过程较为平缓,其余省份变动则较为剧烈。2)通过集聚指数GIS分析,云南、陕西、四川等3省区处于核心区,集聚入境游客能力最强;新疆自治区与宁夏自治区处于边缘区,集聚入境游客能力最弱。3)通过扩散指数GIS分析,四川、广西、云南等3省区处于核心区,扩散入境游客能力最强;宁夏自治区、青海省等2省区处于边缘区,扩散入境游客能力最弱。     

甘肃省农业发展水平空间差异的定量分析

选取反映农业生产条件与水平的18个评价指标,采用因子分析的方法对甘肃省14个市(州)的农业发展水平进行定量分析,认为甘肃省内农业发展水平存在明显的空间差异。河西走廊和沿黄地区的农业发展水平相对要高于甘肃的东南部地区,说明甘肃农业发展主要受到农业资源环境条件的制约,特别是受到灌溉条件的影响。农业发展条件与水平的空间差异是今后农业分工的基础,各地要因地制宜地发展农业生产,促进全省农业的协调发展。     

Can climate change influence agricultural GTFP in arid and semi-arid regions of Northwest China?

There are eight provinces and autonomous regions (Gansu Province, Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, Tibet Autonomous Region, Qinghai Province, Shanxi Province, and Shaanxi Province) in Northwest China, most areas of which are located in arid and semi-arid regions (northwest of the 400 mm precipitation line), accounting for 58.74% of the country's land area and sustaining approximately 7.84×10⁶ people. Because of drought conditions and fragile ecology, these regions cannot develop agriculture at the expense of the environment. Given the challenges of global warming, the green total factor productivity (GTFP), taking CO₂ emissions as an undesirable output, is an effective index for measuring the sustainability of agricultural development. Agricultural GTFP can be influenced by both internal production factors (labor force, machinery, land, agricultural plastic film, diesel, pesticide, and fertilizer) and external climate factors (temperature, precipitation, and sunshine duration). In this study, we used the Super-slacks-based measure (Super-SBM) model to measure agricultural GTFP during the period 2000-2016 at the regional level. Our results show that the average agricultural GTFP of most provinces and autonomous regions in arid and semi-arid regions underwent a fluctuating increase during the study period (2000-2016), and the fluctuation was caused by the production factors (input and output factors). To improve agricultural GTFP, Shaanxi, Shanxi, and Gansu should reduce agricultural labor force input; Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia, Gansu, and Shanxi should decrease machinery input; Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, and Shanxi should reduce fertilizer input; Shaanxi, Xinjiang, Gansu, and Ningxia should reduce diesel input; Xinjiang and Gansu should decrease plastic film input; and Gansu, Shanxi, and Inner Mongolia should cut pesticide input. Desirable output agricultural earnings should be increased in Qinghai and Tibet, and undesirable output (CO₂ emissions) should be reduced in Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Gansu, and Shaanxi. Agricultural GTFP is influenced not only by internal production factors but also by external climate factors. To determine the influence of climate factors on GTFP in these provinces and autonomous regions, we used a Geographical Detector (Geodetector) model to analyze the influence of climate factors (temperature, precipitation, and sunshine duration) and identify the relationships between different climate factors and GTFP. We found that temperature played a significant role in the spatial heterogeneity of GTFP among provinces and autonomous regions in arid and semi-arid regions. For Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, and Tibet, a suitable average annual temperature would be in the range of 7°C-9°C; for Gansu, Shanxi, and Ningxia, it would be 11°C-13°C; and for Shaanxi, it would be 15°C-17°C. Stable climatic conditions and more efficient production are prerequisites for the development of sustainable agriculture. Hence, in the agricultural production process, reducing the redundancy of input factors is the best way to reduce CO₂ emissions and to maintain temperatures, thereby improving the agricultural GTFP. The significance of this study is that it explores the impact of both internal production factors and external climatic factors on the development of sustainable agriculture in arid and semi-arid regions, identifying an effective way forward for the arid and semi-arid regions of Northwest China.     

基于空间插值的农用地单产水平差异性分析——以甘肃省陇东黄土旱塬区为例

利用农用地产能核算外业调查数据,对甘肃省陇东黄土旱塬区农用地理论单产与可实现单产的空间分布特性进行深入分析。方法采用了地统计分析法、泛克里格空间插值法、对比研究法。结果表明:(1)陇东黄土旱塬区南部县区的理论单产普遍高于北部县区,中部县区的理论单产最高;(2)陇东黄土旱塬区可实现单产水平差异较为明显,崆峒区中部的可实现单产最高,合水县东北部、宁县西南部、西峰区南部、泾川县中部及灵台县北部的可实现单产次之;(3)在崆峒区、崇信县、灵台县和泾川县境内存在一条西北——东南走向的较高单产水平带状区域。研究结论:(1)基于地统计分析法的空间插值可用于了解区域农用地单产水平的空间分布特性;(2)陇东黄土旱塬区中部地区应作为未来农用地管理的重点区域。     

耕地集约利用时空特征及其变化规律研究——以新疆为例

结合新疆各地州实际情况,运用熵值法筛选出10个指标构建了耕地集约利用评价指标体系,运用熵值法和层次分析法相结合确定权重并计算了新疆各地州耕地集约利用综合指数;采用系统聚类法将新疆耕地集约利用水平分为4类,并在AUTOCAD支持下制作了新疆耕地集约利用评价图;运用相关分析法和回归分析法分析了新疆耕地集约利用的变化规律。结果表明:1)新疆耕地集约利用水平时序变化明显且空间差异较大。1991～2007年新疆多数地州耕地集约利用水平均呈现稳步提高的态势,北疆提高最快,东疆次之,南疆提高较慢;耕地集约利用水平北疆分化严重,东疆差异最大,南疆差别较小;2)耕地集约利用水平与各地州农业发展水平高度正相关,相关系数r=0.909(p<0.01),与各地州之间经济发展水平高低、农业人口人均耕地数量、农作物种植结构的相关性不明显。     

基于K指数的阿勒泰地区夏季气象干旱特征

利用阿勒泰地区7个气象站1981-2010年6-8月降水量以及计算得到的蒸发量和K指数,用经验正交函数分解（EOF）和旋转经验正交函数分解（REOF）方法,分析了近30 a阿勒泰地区夏季干旱特征,用最大熵谱和谐波分析方法对阿勒泰3个分区K干旱指数的主要周期进行了分析。结果显示：用K干旱指数为指标,阿勒泰地区中西部干旱发生频率高于偏东地区;全地区可分为3个区域,Ⅰ西南谷地平原,Ⅱ东部丘陵地区,Ⅲ北部山区;各分区夏季干旱总体呈下降趋势。阿勒泰干旱的空间分布除受大尺度天气系统影响外,还受地理位置、地形地势等多种因子影响。各区干旱存在准10 a的长周期和3～5 a短周期振荡,且相对稳定,但其显著周期及其年代变化差异较大。     

内蒙古县域经济的时空变化研究

以内蒙古旗县(区)为研究尺度,以人均GDP为指标,选取2000年到2010年11年的数据,运用变异系数和ESDA相结合的方法研究内蒙古县域经济的时空变化。研究结果表明:内蒙古县域经济表现为总体上升,差距急剧拉大的特点。县域经济的分布表现为西北高东南低的空间特点,高收入县和发达县主要集中在内蒙古中西部鄂尔多斯和阿拉善盟的资源富集旗县,而贫困区和低收入区主要集中呼伦贝尔、兴安盟的大兴安岭东侧低山丘陵区,西辽河流域的通辽市和赤峰市中部,蛮汉山和大青山交汇处的乌兰察布市区域,具有明显的空间聚集性。     

甘肃中部旱农耕作区生产绿色食品可行性分析

在总结国内外绿色食品发展现状的基础上,指出了与绿色食品关联的旱作农业及可持续性研究对今后农业发展的重要意义。从地方生态环境条件,农、牧、林业优质产品资源,生态环境治理以及西部大开发的机遇等方面论述了甘肃中部绿色食品开发的可行性,并提倡在甘肃中部大力开发绿色食品,总体推进地方生态环境治理、带动中部经济发展。甘肃中部开发绿色食品实践,也是在黄土高原地区探索生态环境治理、谋求人民脱贫致富的途径。     

区域旅游企业经济竞争力量化分析

本文运用因子分析和聚类分析等量化手段对我国东、中、西三个区域,31个省份不同旅游企业经济竞争力指标进行了分析,得出区域及省市旅游企业经济竞争力分布特点及分类。结果显示:我国旅游企业经济竞争力最强的地区为上海、北京和广东,区域结构方面,我国旅游企业经济竞争力总体上呈现东—西梯度演进结构。文章将旅游产业竞争力进行系统分解,研究了旅游产业主体(旅游企业)的经济竞争力,从而为更好的理解区域旅游产业竞争力提供了思路。     

克里雅绿洲浅层地下水与土壤特征的局部空间关系

通过优选的空间插值方法、网格单元法、地理加权回归(GWR)与最小二乘法(OLS)等方法的综合运用,系统研究典型干旱区绿洲的浅层地下水特征(埋深、电导率)与表层土壤特征(含水率、电导率)的空间分异与局部空间关系。结果表明:空间拟合方法上,表层土壤电导率与含水率的空间关系回归适用OLS模型,其余指标间空间关系采用GWR模型更优;空间关系上,土壤电导率与含水率的全局相关系数为极显著的0.85,局部相关性上绿洲西部明显高于东部;土壤电导率与地下水电导率的全局相关系数极显著(R=0.602),但局部相关性上同时具有正相关与负相关特征;土壤含水率与埋深、地下水电导率与埋深均呈全局负相关,但在局部出现正相关;地下水埋深由绿洲西北至东南逐渐增加,地下水电导率由西南至东北依次呈现低—高—低的特征,表层土壤电导率与含水率由西至东均呈现低—高—低—次高的特征; GWR较OLS方法能够反映更多的空间异质特征,通常在总体相关水平下,局部可能出现相关性相反或大小不同的相关性。     

甘肃省农业现代化水平区域差异的ESDA-GIS分析

基于ESDA-GIS的空间分析框架,利用甘肃省2005年87个县(市、区)的统计数据,对其农业现代化水平总体和局部空间差异格局进行了研究。首先对统计数据进行了概括性因子分析,抽取的投入、产出与社会发展因子值的频率分布都是偏态的。随后对县域农业现代化水平的空间结构进行了探索性分析,通过空间自相关测度分析得出:产出因子和社会发展因子的空间分布具有正相关性,呈现出空间集聚的特征;投入因子的空间相关特征不明显。最后将小城镇的局域空间自相关系数按县级行政单元进行聚类。研究表明:ESDA-GIS空间分析方法可以清楚地解释农业现代化水平的空间异质性问题,并且具有直观的可视化效果。     

东西部农民收入差异原因分析及对策研究--以陕西、浙江为例

随着我国西部大开发的实施,要使西部能够尽快缩小差距,促进西部发展,本文以省级行政单位作为基本研究单元,选取西部农业大省—陕西和东部沿海发达省份—浙江两个差异较大的省份,定量分析了从1980年至2001年农民收入差异情况,并与全国平均水平进行对比。在此对比的基础上分析了位于西部的陕西省农民收入偏低的原因,得出自然因素、文化因素、产业结构因素、国家政策等是影响陕西省农民收入的主要因素,根据陕西省的实际情况提出相关的解决方案。     

地域民族传统文化与西部开发中技术转移关系的思考

地域民族传统文化与技术转移的关系密切,地域民族传统文化不仅是一种重要的文化资源,同时还对技术转移存在极大的促进作用,但有时还会阻碍技术转移的进一步实施与实现。西部大开发必须进行必要的技术转移,由于少数民族地区某些文化的滞后性和封闭性,使西部开发中技术转移与其民族传统文化产生了摩擦,超越传统文化,克服陈旧意识,转变思想观念,不断创新,营造先进的文化环境,为技术转移培育强劲的民族文化内动力,是消除技术转移与传统民族文化摩擦的有效措施。     

陕西省农业生态经济系统综合评估及空间聚集特征分析

基于陕西省农业生态经济统计数据,构建农业生态经济综合评估指标体系,采用熵权法确定权重系数,对陕西省各县(区)进行农业生态经济系统综合评估,在此基础上基于地理事物空间分布的自相关理论,进一步探索其在空间分布上的聚集特征。研究结果表明,近十年全省变化波动较大。2007年陕西省农业生态经济水平的空间差异呈现出由以西安市为中心的关中地区向陕北、陕南递减的态势。各县(区)的农业生态经济系统及其子系统间的相互关系也具较大差异,关中地区各县(区)各系统间协调得最好,陕北地区最差。2007年陕西省各县(区)的农业生态经济水平主要趋向于低低集聚,而表现为高高集聚的县(区)主要集中于西安市各县(区)及其临近区域,陕北和陕南地区的空间集聚主要表现为低低集聚。另外,关中地区边缘个别市、县表现为非集聚现象,且分布于高高集聚地区的外缘,其非集聚地区地理分布较为集中。     

Impact of agricultural development on variation in surface runoff in arid regions: a case of the Aksu River Basin

Located in the south of Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region,the Tarim River is the longest inland river in China.Agricultural development,excessive exploitation and low surface water use efficiency in the headstream regions have led to a marked decrease in the water supply to the mainstream.This,in turn,has resulted in the drying-up of the watercourse in the lower reaches of the Tarim River and serious deterioration of the eco-environment.The Aksu River Basin,the most important headstream of the Tarim River,was selected as the research area in this study.Taking elastic coefficient,water demand coefficient and water utilization intensity as the indices,we studied the impact of agricultural development on decreasing surface runoff since the 1950s.The results indicated that(1) the increasing rate of consumption of surface runoff outstripped the rate of increase measured in the natural catchment discharge,resulting in ever diminishing stream discharge into the Tarim River.Agricultural irrigation and seepage loss in irrigation canal systems were the major sources for runoff consumption,taking 63.72% of the overall runoff consumption.What's more,agricultural water consumption took up more than 97% of the water used for long-term production;(2) the expansion of cultivated land,change of planting structure and comparatively low agricultural irrigation efficiency all contributed to the decrease in surface runoff of the Aksu River.The elasticity coefficient of surface runoff reduction corresponding to the increase in planted area was 0.34 in the 1950s,while in the 2000s it had increased to 7.87.This reflected a more sensitive response of runoff decrease to cultivated land expansion.The increase in cotton and fruit production,without widely-used scientific irrigation methods and water-saving technology,led to considerable waste of the water resources.Meanwhile,the irrigation efficiency was still quite low,characterized by the waste of water resources,and the decrease of surface runoff;(3) in different stages,cultivated land area,planting structure and agricultural water use efficiency exerted different effects on runoff decrease.In the early stage,agricultural development showed no obvious effect on runoff decrease.Since the 1960s,the expansion in cultivated land resulted in large consumption of surface runoff;since the 1990s,not only expansion in cultivated land expansion,but also planting structure exerted significant impact on the consumption of surface runoff.Recently,though agricultural water use efficiency has improved in some regions to reduce the consumption of runoff to a certain extent,overall agricultural water use efficiency is still quite low;(4) during the investigation period,water consumption by agricultural development reflected the unbalanced relationship between human activities and water resources.     

中国耕地生产率变化及影响因素分析--基于Malmquist指数视角的研究

利用数据包络分析（DEA）、Malmquist生产率指数测度1997-2004年间我国耕地生产率,并分析其时空变化及变化的源泉,最后运用计量经济模型探讨耕地生产率的影响因素。主要研究结论如下：1997-2004年间我国耕地生产率存在着一定的波动性,平均每年增加0.2%,主要原因是技术进步水平的提高;同时各个行政区间的耕...     

西北地区家庭林业全要素生产率测算及收敛性分析——基于陕甘两省7年的1000个固定样本

通过对全要素生产率的测算和收敛性分析,了解西北地区家庭林业配置效率、时空差异及发展趋势,为推动西北地区家庭林业全要素生产率增长,加快林业经济发展方式转变和制定林业可持续发展的相关政策提供科学依据和理论支撑。选用DEA-Malmquist模型和收敛性分析法,就西北地区家庭林业全要素生产率增长情况、时空差异及是否存在收敛做出评估。结果表明:1)从整体上看,2011-2017年西北地区家庭林业全要素生产率年均增长11.6%,其中技术进步(31.9%)是西北地区家庭林业全要素生产率增长的动力源泉;2)从变化趋势上看,2011-2017年西北地区家庭林业全要素生产率呈现明显的波动特征;3)从区域来看,2011-2017年各地区家庭林业全要素生产率呈现较大差异性;4)从收敛性上看,2011-2017年各地区家庭林业全要素生产率差距正逐步缩小,存在收敛趋势。因此,文中研究认为促进林业技术进步、优化林业资源配置和因地制宜发展林业是提升西北地区家庭林业全要素生产率、缩小地区差距的有效途径。