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In 1999, a questionnaire survey was conducted to evaluate public preferences towards badger culling to control bovine tuberculosis in cattle. Three alternative treatments were considered: (1) widespread culling, (2) the current experimental trials, and (3) no culling. One hundred residents from Glastonbury and York were interviewed in person and asked to give preference ratings to each of the three treatments. The single most preferred treatment was no culling, and the least preferred was the widespread cull. Respondents who favoured either the widespread cull or the experimental trials tended to be more knowledgeable about the problem and cited the level of tuberculosis in cattle as the primary factor guiding their preferences. Respondents who favoured the no culling option tended to be less knowledgeable, and cited the conservation and welfare impacts on badger populations as the most important factors. Analysis of the distribution of preference scores suggested that although it was not necessarily the most preferred treatment the experimental trial may be a relatively acceptable alternative.  相似文献   

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As a part of bovine tuberculosis eradication strategy, the Welsh Government has proposed a badger cull in a defined area in and around North Pembrokeshire, and has published information on herd densities and incidence levels within and close to the area. In the present study, three sets of previously published data relating the impact of badger culling inside and around previous culling areas to distances from culling area boundaries have been used to model possible impacts of the proposed cull, taking account of three possible scenarios in which geographic boundaries reduce, to varying extents, adverse effects caused by increased badger movements. For the scenarios considered, the results predict average changes in confirmed herd incidences (CHIs) in the range -15.7 (-29.1 to 1.6 per cent) to -25.3 per cent (-52.2 to 46.1 per cent) over a period of 10 years, comprising average changes in the culling area in the range -26.1 (-34.8 to -14.8 per cent) to -32.6 per cent (-59.6 to 47.6 per cent), and average changes on adjoining land in the range 4.5 (-21.8 to 39.8 per cent) to 7.8 per cent (-16.1 to 38.5 per cent). The overall impacts equate to average reductions in the number of CHIs of between 122 (37 to 187) and 158 (-254 to 304).  相似文献   

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Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) continues to be a problem in cattle herds in Ireland and Britain. It has been suggested that failure to eradicate this disease is related to the presence of a wildlife reservoir (the badger). A large-scale project was undertaken in the Republic of Ireland during 1997–2002 to assess whether badger removal could contribute to reducing risk of cattle herd breakdowns in four areas. During the period of that “four area” study, there was a significant decrease in risk in intensively culled (removal) areas relative to reference areas. In the present study, we revisit these areas to assess if there were any residual area effects of this former intervention a decade on (2007–2012). Over the study period there was an overall declining trend in bTB breakdown risk to cattle herds. Cattle herds within former removal areas experienced significantly reduced risk of breakdown relative to herds within former reference areas or herds within non-treatment areas (OR: 0.53; P < 0.001). Increased herd breakdown risk was associated with increasing herd size (OR: 1.92-2.03; P < 0.001) and herd bTB history (OR: 2.25-2.40; P < 0.001). There was increased risk of herd breakdowns in areas with higher badger densities, but this association was only significant early in the study (PD*YEAR interaction; P < 0.001). Badgers were culled in areas with higher cattle bTB risk (targeted culling). Risk tended to decline with cumulative culling effort only in three counties, but increased in the fourth (Donegal). Culling badgers is not seen as a viable long-term strategy. However, mixed policy options with biosecurity and badger vaccination, may help in managing cattle breakdown risk.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13567-014-0109-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.  相似文献   

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This study evaluated a 0.0584% hydrocortisone aceponate (HCA) spray (Cortavance®; Virbac SA, Carros, France) in canine atopic dermatitis (AD). Initially, dogs with a canine AD extent and severity index (CADESI-03) ≥ 50 were randomly allocated to receive HCA ( n  = 15) or placebo ( n  = 13) (two sprays from 10 cm away to treat an area of 100 cm2) once daily for 28 days. Twenty-one of the dogs then received HCA spray once daily, reducing to every other day or twice weekly over 42 days if improvement was maintained. CADESI, pruritus (14 cm visual-analogue-scale) and owner satisfaction (5-point scale) were recorded every 14 days. Haematology, biochemistry and adrenocorticotrophic hormone stimulation were performed at baseline, d28 and d70 (HCA n  = 9; placebo n  = 7). Intention-to-treat data were analysed. HCA spray significantly decreased CADESI (–61.4% versus –13.4%, P  = 0.0069) and pruritus (–38.8% versus +57.6%, P  = 0.0015) at d28 compared to placebo. Scores were significantly decreased at d14 (CADESI –50.5%, P  < 0.0021) and d28 (CADESI P  < 0.0001; pruritus P  = 0.018) compared to baseline following HCA but not placebo. At d28 11 of 15 and 7 of 15 HCA dogs had ≥ 50% reductions in CADESI and pruritus compared to 3 of 13 ( P  = 0.02) and 1 of 13 ( P  = 0.04) placebo dogs. Owner satisfaction scores were significantly higher in the HCA group (d28 P  = 0.0001). Daily 3 of the 21 dogs required daily maintenance therapy, 7 every other day, 6 twice weekly and 5 dogs required additional therapy. Coat length did not influence the results. No adverse effects or changes to blood parameters were noted. HCA spray proved safe and effective up to 70 days. It is not, however, licensed for long-term treatment.  相似文献   

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The aim of this simulation study was to identify culling strategy and to estimate culling precision based on various characteristics available in field data in order to evaluate the ability to detect situations in which adjustment for missing data should be applied in genetic evaluation. Data were simulated for age at 100 kg of live weight (AGE) measured on the farm. Culling was done within (C-W/IN) or over (C-OVER) litters by deleting records from the simulated datasets with culling intensities of .33 and .67. The culling variate (CVAR) used indicated the culling precision and had genetic and phenotypic correlations of 1.00, .75, .50, .25, or .00 with AGE (r(CVAR,AGE)). We were able to distinguish between culling strategies C-OVER and C-W/IN by means of decision rules based on proportion of tested animals per litter. Estimates of r(CVAR,AGE) were obtained from calibration curves for linear regression coefficients of litter average or within-litter variance for AGE on proportion of tested animals, and within- and between-litter variance (V(W) and V(B)) for AGE. Moderate to high r(CVAR,AGE) could be identified with little error by using V(W) or V(B) in C-W/IN and V(W) in C-OVER. Within-litter variance and the weighted average of the estimates from all four characteristics were well able to detect r(CVAR,AGE) values of .50 and higher in both C-W/IN and C-OVER. In conclusion, characteristics of swine field data with missing observations contain information that makes it possible to determine culling strategy, intensity, and precision. This information can be used to decide whether missing data should be replaced by their expected values in genetic evaluation.  相似文献   

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First-fortnight incidence (FFI) is a modelling parameter that can be used to predict both the prevalence and duration of a foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) epidemic at regional and national levels. With an indication of how long an epidemic may last by the end of week two, it becomes possible to estimate whether vaccination would be economically viable from the start of an epidemic. Where FFI indicates that an epidemic is unlikely to last for as long as an export ban on agricultural produce, it may be inappropriate to implement a policy of 'vaccination to live'. Alternatively where FFI indicates that an epidemic will equal or exceed the ban length, then the benefits of vaccination should be considered at an early stage, during or after the first fortnight. Since blanket vaccination of the national or regional herds and flocks would be both costly and heighten the risk of producing carrier animals, targetting vaccination through risk assessment becomes useful.  相似文献   

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