Contribution of the Patagonia Icefields of South America to sea level rise

Digital elevation models of the Northern and Southern Patagonia Icefields of South America generated from the 2000 Shuttle Radar Topography Mission were compared with earlier cartography to estimate the volume change of the largest 63 glaciers. During the period 1968/1975-2000, these glaciers lost ice at a rate equivalent to a sea level rise of 0.042 +/- 0.002 millimeters per year. In the more recent years 1995-2000, average ice thinning rates have more than doubled to an equivalent sea level rise of 0.105 +/- 0.011 millimeters per year. The glaciers are thinning more quickly than can be explained by warmer air temperatures and decreased precipitation, and their contribution to sea level per unit area is larger than that of Alaska glaciers.     

Isotopic composition of old ground water from lake agassiz: implications for late pleistocene climate

A uniform oxygen isotope value of -25 per mil was obtained from old ground water at depths of 20 to 30 meters in a thick deposit of clay in the southern part of the glacial Lake Agassiz basin. The lake occupied parts of North Dakota and southern Manitoba at the end of the last glacial maximum and received water from the ice margin and the interior plains region of Canada. Ground water from thick late Pleistocene-age clay deposits elsewhere, a till in southern Saskatchewan, and a glaciolacustrine deposit in northern Ontario show the same value at similar depths. These sites are at about 50 degrees N latitude, span a distance of 2000 kilometers, and like the Lake Agassiz sites, have a ground-water velocity of less than a few millimeters per year. The value of -25 per mil is characteristic of meltwater impounded in the southern basin of Lake Agassiz. This value corresponds to an estimated air temperature of -16 degrees C, compared with the modern temperature of 0 degrees C for this area.     

Recent sea-level contributions of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets

After a century of polar exploration, the past decade of satellite measurements has painted an altogether new picture of how Earth's ice sheets are changing. As global temperatures have risen, so have rates of snowfall, ice melting, and glacier flow. Although the balance between these opposing processes has varied considerably on a regional scale, data show that Antarctica and Greenland are each losing mass overall. Our best estimate of their combined imbalance is about 125 gigatons per year of ice, enough to raise sea level by 0.35 millimeters per year. This is only a modest contribution to the present rate of sea-level rise of 3.0 millimeters per year. However, much of the loss from Antarctica and Greenland is the result of the flow of ice to the ocean from ice streams and glaciers, which has accelerated over the past decade. In both continents, there are suspected triggers for the accelerated ice discharge-surface and ocean warming, respectively-and, over the course of the 21st century, these processes could rapidly counteract the snowfall gains predicted by present coupled climate models.     

Measurements of time-variable gravity show mass loss in Antarctica

Using measurements of time-variable gravity from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment satellites, we determined mass variations of the Antarctic ice sheet during 2002-2005. We found that the mass of the ice sheet decreased significantly, at a rate of 152 +/- 80 cubic kilometers of ice per year, which is equivalent to 0.4 +/- 0.2 millimeters of global sea-level rise per year. Most of this mass loss came from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet.     

Slip-rate measurements on the Karakorum Fault may imply secular variations in fault motion

Beryllium-10 surface exposure dating of offset moraines on one branch of the Karakorum Fault west of the Gar basin yields a long-term (140- to 20-thousand-year) right-lateral slip rate of approximately 10.7 +/- 0.7 millimeters per year. This rate is 10 times larger than that inferred from recent InSAR analyses ( approximately 1 +/- 3 millimeters per year) that span approximately 8 years and sample all branches of the fault. The difference in slip-rate determinations suggests that large rate fluctuations may exist over centennial or millennial time scales. Such fluctuations would be consistent with mechanical coupling between the seismogenic, brittle-creep, and ductile shear sections of faults that reach deep into the crust.     

Evidence for deep magma injection beneath Lake Tahoe, Nevada-California

A deep earthquake swarm in late 2003 at Lake Tahoe, California (Richter magnitude < 2.2; depth of 29 to 33 kilometers), was coeval with a transient displacement of 6 millimeters horizontally outward from the swarm and 8 millimeters upward measured at global positioning system station Slide Mountain (SLID) 18 kilometers to the northeast. During the first 23 days of the swarm, hypocentral depths migrated at a rate of 2.4 millimeters per second up-dip along a 40-square-kilometer structure striking north 30 degrees west and dipping 50 degrees to the northeast. SLID's transient velocity of 20 millimeters per year implies a lower bound of 200 nanostrains per year (parts per billion per year) on local strain rates, an order of magnitude greater than the 1996 to 2003 regional rate. The geodetic displacement is too large to be explained by the elastic strain from the cumulative seismic moment of the sequence, suggesting an aseismic forcing mechanism. Aspects of the swarm and SLID displacements are consistent with lower-crustal magma injection under Lake Tahoe.     

Global sea level rise and the greenhouse effect: might they be connected?

Secular sea level trends extracted from tide gauge records of appropriately long duration demonstrate that global sea level may be rising at a rate in excess of 1 millimeter per year. However, because global coverage of the oceans by the tide gauge network is highly nonuniform and the tide gauge data reveal considerable spatial variability, there has been a well-founded reluctance to interpret the observed secular sea level rise as representing a signal of global scale that might be related to the greenhouse effect. When the tide gauge data are filtered so as to remove the contribution of ongoing glacial isostatic adjustment to the local sea level trend at each location, then the individual tide gauge records reveal sharply reduced geographic scatter and suggest that there is a globally coherent signal of strength 2.4 +/- 0.90 millimeters per year that is active in the system. This signal could constitute an indication of global climate warming.     

High Rates of Vertical Crustal Movement near Ventura, California

Fission track, radiometric, and paleomagnetic age determinations in marine sedimentary rocks of the Ventura Basin make it possible to estimate the vertical components of displacement rates for the last 2 million years. The basin subsided at rates up to 9.5 +/- 2.5 millimeters per year until about 0.6 million years ago, when subsidence virtually ceased. Since then, the northern margin of the basin has been rising at an average rate of 10 +/- 2 millimeters per year, about the same rate as that based on the geodetic record north and west of Ventura since 1960 but considerably lower than the rate along the San Andreas fault at Palmdale since 1960.     

Postglacial change in sea level in the Western north atlantic ocean

Radioactive carbon determinations of the age of peat indicate that at Bermuda, southern Florida, North Carolina, and Louisiana the relative sea level has risen at approximately the same rate, 2.5 x 10(-3) foot per year (0.76 x 10(-3) meter per year), during the past 4000 years. It is proposed tentatively that this is the rate of eustatic change in sea level. The rise in sea level along the northeastern coast of the United States has been at a rate much greater than this, indicating local subsidence of the land. Between Cape Cod and northern Virginia, coastal subsidence of 13 feet appears to have occurred between 4000 and 2000 years ago and has continued at a rate of about 1 x 10(-3) foot per year since then. On the northeastern coast of Massachusetts, subsidence of 6 feet occurred between 4000 and 3000 years ago; since then sea level has risen at about the eustatic rate. Between 12,000 and 4000 years ago, sea level rose at an average of about 11 x 10(-3) foot per year. The part played by local subsidence or temporary departures from the average rate during this period is uncertain.     

Calcium carbonate production, coral reef growth, and sea level change

Shallow, seaward portions of modern coral reefs produce about 4 kilograms of calcium carbonate per square meter per year, and protected areas produce about 0.8 kilogram per square meter per year. The difference is probably largely a function of water motion. The more rapid rate, equivalent to a maximum vertical accretion of 3 to 5 millimeters per year, places an upper limit on the potential of modern coral reef communities to create a significant vertical structure on a rising sea.     

Snowfall-driven growth in East Antarctic ice sheet mitigates recent sea-level rise

Satellite radar altimetry measurements indicate that the East Antarctic ice-sheet interior north of 81.6 degrees S increased in mass by 45 +/- 7 billion metric tons per year from 1992 to 2003. Comparisons with contemporaneous meteorological model snowfall estimates suggest that the gain in mass was associated with increased precipitation. A gain of this magnitude is enough to slow sea-level rise by 0.12 +/- 0.02 millimeters per year.     

Ocean warming and sea level rise along the southwest u.s. Coast

Hydrographic time-series data recorded during the past 42 years in the upper 500 meters off the coast of southern California indicate that temperatures have increased by 0.8 degrees C uniformly in the upper 100 meters and that temperatures have risen significantly to depths of about 300 meters. The effect of warming the surface layer of the ocean and there by expanding the water column has been to raise sea level by 0.9 +/- 0.2 millimeter per year. Tide gauge records along the coast are coherent with steric height and show upward trends in sea level that vary from about 1 to 3 millimeters per year.     

Meteoric water in magmas

Oxygen isotope analyses of sanidine phenocrysts from rhyolitic sequences in Nevada, Colorado, and the Yellowstone Plateau volcanic field show that delta(18)O decreased in these magmas as a function of time. This decrease in delta(18)O may have been caused by isotopic exchange between the magma and groundwater low in (18)O. For the Yellowstone Plateau rhyolites, 7000 cubic kilometers of magma could decrease in delta(18)O by 2 per mil in 600,000 years by reacting with water equivalent to 3 millimeters of precipitation per year, which is only 0.3 percent of the present annual precipitation in this region. The possibility of reaction between large magmatic bodies and meteoric water at liquidus temperatures has major implications in the possible differentiation history of the magma and in the generation of ore deposits.     

Recent changes in atmospheric carbon monoxide

Measurements of carbon monoxide (CO) in air samples collected from 27 locations between 71 degrees N and 41 degrees S show that atmospheric levels of this gas have decreased worldwide over the past 2 to 5 years. During this period, CO decreased at nearly a constant rate in the high northern latitudes. In contrast, in the tropics an abrupt decrease occurred beginning at the end of 1991. In the Northern Hemisphere, CO decreased at a spatially and temporally averaged rate of 7.3 (+/-0.9) parts per billion per year (6.1 percent per year) from June 1990 to June 1993, whereas in the Southern Hemisphere, CO decreased 4.2 (+/-0.5) parts per billion per year (7.0 percent per year). This recent change is opposite a long-term trend of a 1 to 2 percent per year increase inferred from measurements made in the Northern Hemisphere during the past 30 years.     

Earthquake potential along the northern hayward fault, california

The Hayward fault slips in large earthquakes and by aseismic creep observed along its surface trace. Dislocation models of the surface deformation adjacent to the Hayward fault measured with the global positioning system and interferometric synthetic aperture radar favor creep at approximately 7 millimeters per year to the bottom of the seismogenic zone along a approximately 20-kilometer-long northern fault segment. Microearthquakes with the same waveform repeatedly occur at 4- to 10-kilometer depths and indicate deep creep at 5 to 7 millimeters per year. The difference between current creep rates and the long-term slip rate of approximately 10 millimeters per year can be reconciled in a mechanical model of a freely slipping northern Hayward fault adjacent to the locked 1868 earthquake rupture, which broke the southern 40 to 50 kilometers of the fault. The potential for a major independent earthquake of the northern Hayward fault might be less than previously thought.     

A semi-empirical approach to projecting future sea-level rise

A semi-empirical relation is presented that connects global sea-level rise to global mean surface temperature. It is proposed that, for time scales relevant to anthropogenic warming, the rate of sea-level rise is roughly proportional to the magnitude of warming above the temperatures of the pre-Industrial Age. This holds to good approximation for temperature and sea-level changes during the 20th century, with a proportionality constant of 3.4 millimeters/year per degrees C. When applied to future warming scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, this relationship results in a projected sea-level rise in 2100 of 0.5 to 1.4 meters above the 1990 level.     

Wadi howar: paleoclimatic evidence from an extinct river system in the southeastern sahara

Field research into the climatic history and shifting of the East Saharan desert has furnished evidence that during Quaternary time the present extremely arid western part of Upper Nubia (northern Sudan)was temporarily linked to the Nile by way of a hitherto unknown 400 kilometer long tributary. From about 9500 to 4500 years ago, lower Wadi Howar flowed through an environment characterized by numerous ground water outlets and freshwater lakes. Savanna fauna and cattle-herders occupied this region, which today receives at most 25 millimeters of rainfall per year. At that period the southern edge of the eastern Sahara was some 500 kilometers further north than today and ground water resources were recharged for the last time.     

Continuing worldwide increase in tropospheric methane, 1978 to 1987

The average worldwide tropospheric mixing ratio of methane has increased by 11% from 1.52 parts per million by volume (ppmv) in January 1978 to 1.684 ppmv in September 1987, for an increment of 0.016 +/- 0.001 ppmv per year. Within the limits of our measurements, the global tropospheric mixing ratio for methane over the past decade is consistent either with a linear growth rate of 0.016 +/- 0.001 ppmv per year or with a slight lessening of the rate of growth over the past 5 years. No indications were found of an effect of the El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation-El Chichon events of 1982-83 on total global methane, although severe reductions were reported in the Pacific Northwest during that time period. The growth in tropospheric methane may have increased the water concentration in the stratosphere by as much as 28% since the 1940s and 45% over the past two centuries and thus could have increased the mass of precipitable water available for formation of polar stratospheric clouds.     

Critical depth for the survival of coral islands: effects on the hawaiian archipelago

Coral islands drown when sea level rise exceeds the maximum potential of coral reefs to grow upward (about 10 millimeters per year). During the Holocene transgression (18,000 years ago to present) sea levels rose at rates of up to 10 to 20 millimeters per year, and most coral island reefs situated deeper than a critical depth of30 to 40 meters below present day sea level drowned. Coral islands that did not drown during the Holocene transgression apparently all developed on antecedent foundations shallower than critical depth. During low stands in sea level during the Pleistocene, these islands were elevated and subject to subaerial erosion. Today, in the Hawaiian Archipelago, the depth of drowned banks is inversely related to summit area; smaller banks are progressively deeper, evidently because of erosional truncation during low sea level stands. Bank summit area may therefore be an important factor determining the failure or success of coral islands.     

Changes in surface water supply across Africa with predicted climate change

Across Africa, perennial drainage density as a function of mean annual rainfall defines three regimes separated by threshold values of precipitation. This nonlinear response of drainage to rainfall will most seriously affect regions in the intermediate, unstable regime. A 10% decrease in precipitation in regions on the upper regime boundary (1000 millimeters per year) would reduce drainage by 17%, whereas in regions receiving 500 millimeters per year, such a drop would cut 50% of surface drainage. By using predicted precipitation changes, we calculate that a decrease in perennial drainage will significantly affect present surface water access across 25% of Africa by the end of this century.