黑龙江省林火规律研究Ⅱ.林火动态与格局影响因素的分析

本文对在大尺度 (5 0 0km2 以上 )上影响黑龙江省林火的因素及其影响途径进行了分析。结果表明 ,年林火次数 (人为火次数 )与林业人口正相关 ,林火面积与人口无关。干燥度的空间差异对林火燃烧率格局有正向影响。林火特征与气候因子之间没有线性关系。黑龙江省林火次数和面积对年均温和降水量的响应可归纳为旋转的单叶双曲面和双叶抛物面两种模式。林火特征的周期与年均温、年降水量的周期关系很大。黑龙江省森林类型对林火次数、面积的影响在省级区划尺度上不显著的。较高的管理水平显著减少林火。林火次数、面积与了望塔数量、消防车数量及通讯覆盖率等无线性关系     

Forest fire risk assessment in parts of Northeast India using geospatial tools

Forest fire is a major cause of changes in forest structure and function. Among various floristic regions, the northeast region of India suffers maximum from the fires due to age-old practice of shifting culti- vation and spread of fires from jhum fields. For proper mitigation and management, an early warning of forest fires through risk modeling is required. The study results demonstrate the potential use of remote sens- ing and Geographic Information System (GIS) in identifying forest fire prone areas in Manipur, southeastern part of Northeast India. Land use land cover (LULC), vegetation type, Digital elevation model (DEM), slope, aspect and proximity to roads and settlements, factors that influ- ence the behavior of fire, were used to model the forest fire risk zones. Each class of the layers was given weight according to their fire inducing capability and their sensitivity to fire. Weighted sum modeling and ISODATA clustering was used to classify the fire zones. To validate the results, Along Track Scanning Radiometer (ATSR), the historical fire hotspots data was used to check the occurrence points and modeled forest fire locations. The forest risk zone map has 55 63% of agreement with ATSR dataset.     

Spatio-temporal analysis of forest fire events in the Margalla Hills,Islamabad,Pakistan using socio-economic and environmental variable data with machine learning methods

Most forest fires in the Margalla Hills are related to human activities and socioeconomic factors are essential to assess their likelihood of occurrence.This study consid-ers both environmental (altitude,precipitation,forest type,terrain and humidity index) and socioeconomic (popula-tion density,distance from roads and urban areas) factors to analyze how human behavior affects the risk of forest fires.Maximum entropy (Maxent) modelling and random forest (RF) machine learning methods were used to predict the probability and spatial diffusion patterns of forest fires in the Margalla Hills.The receiver operating characteristic(ROC) curve and the area under the ROC curve (AUC) were used to compare the models.We studied the fire history from 1990 to 2019 to establish the relationship between the prob-ability of forest fire and environmental and socioeconomic changes.Using Maxent,the AUC fire probability values for the 1999s,2009s,and 2019s were 0.532,0.569,and 0.518,respectively;using RF,they were 0.782,0.825,and 0.789,respectively.Fires were mainly distributed in urban areas and their probability of occurrence was related to acces-sibility and human behaviour/activity.AUC principles for validation were greater in the random forest models than in the Maxent models.Our results can be used to establish preventive measures to reduce risks of forest fires by consid-ering socio-economic and environmental conditions.     

GIS-based forest fire susceptibility mapping in Iran: a comparison between evidential belief function and binary logistic regression models

The aim of this research was to produce forest fire susceptibility maps (FFSM) based on evidential belief function (EBF) and binary logistic regression (BLR) models in the Minudasht Forests, Golestan Province, Iran. At first, 151 forest fire locations were identified from Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectero Radiometer data, extensive field surveys, and some reports (collected in year 2010). Out of these locations, 106 (70%) were randomly selected as training data and the remaining 45 (30%) cases were used for the validation goals. In the next step, 15 effective factors such as slope degree, slope aspect, elevation, plan curvature, Topographic Position Index, Topographic Wetness Index, land use, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, distance to villages, distance to roads, distance to rivers, wind effect, soil texture, annual temperature, and rainfall were extracted from the spatial database. Subsequently, FFSM were prepared using EBF and BLR models, and the results were plotted in ArcGIS. Finally, the receiver operating characteristic curves and area under the curves (AUCs) were constructed for verification purposes. The validation of results showed that the AUC for EBF and BLR models are 0.8193 (81.93%) and 0.7430 (74.30%), respectively. In general, the mentioned results can be applied for land use planning, management and prevention of future fire hazards.     

Weather and human impacts on forest fires: 100 years of fire history in two climatic regions of Switzerland

Understanding the factors driving past fire regimes is crucial in the context of global change as a basis for predicting future changes. In this study, we aimed to identify the impact of climate and human activities on fire occurrence in the most fire-prone regions of Switzerland. We considered forest fires, land use and meteorological data over the period 1904-2008 in the neighboring mountain cantons (states) of Valais and Ticino, which are characterized by distinct climatic regimes.The presence/absence of fire ignitions was analyzed using the Nesterov ignition index (as a proxy for fire weather), road density (for ignition sources), livestock density (for biomass removal), and change in forest area (for fire-prone abandoned agricultural areas).We found that fire weather played a key role in fire occurrence in both regions. Road and livestock densities had similar influences in the two cantons. However, while the increase in forest area was well correlated with fire occurrence in Ticino, no such correlation was evident in Valais, probably because land abandonment and forest cover change have been less extensive there. Our findings emphasize the non-linear nature of the relationships between fire occurrence and anthropogenic drivers, as we found thresholds above which road density was no longer correlated with fire occurrence. This implies that the projected future increase and spatial concentration of the human population may not result in a further increase in fire risk in intermediately to densely populated areas in both cantons.The driving factors behind fire activity differ slightly in the two cantons, in particular with increasing forest area enhancing fire occurrence in Ticino but not in Valais. These differences should be taken into account when assessing future fire risk, especially in Valais where the potential for an increase in the fire-prone area is still high. Fires are likely to become more frequent in a warmer climate, but future fire activity may develop differently in the two cantons. This should be taken into account when planning optimized fire prevention measures. This case study should help to better understand fire activity in highly populated regions where fire activity is still moderate but might markedly increase under a projected more fire-prone climate.     

Predicting late-successional fire refugia pre-dating European settlement in the Wenatchee Mountains

Fires occur frequently in dry forests of the Inland West. Fire effects vary across the landscape, reflecting topography, elevation, aspect, slope, soils, and vegetation attributes. Patches minimally affected by successive fires may be thought of as ‘refugia’, islands of older forest in a younger forest matrix. Refugia support species absent within the landscape matrix. Our goal was to predict the occurrence of pre-settlement refugia using physiographic and topographic variables.We evaluated 487 plots across a 47000 ha landscape using three criteria to identify historical fire refugia: different structure from surrounding matrix; different fire regime from surrounding matrix; presence of old individuals of fire-intolerant tree species. Several combinations of aspect, elevation, and topography best predicted refugial presence.Less than 20% of the pre-settlement landscape was identified as historical fire refugia. Refugia were not connected except by younger stands within the matrix. Current management goals of increasing amounts and connectivity of old, refugia-like forests for the benefit of species associated with late-successional habitat increase the risk of insect and pathogen outbreaks and catastrophic wildfires.     

Characterization of forest fires in Catalonia (north-east Spain)

The present study analyses the temporal variation in the distribution of the number of fires, area burned and fire sizes in Catalonia using fire data from 1942 to 2002. The study shows variations in the distribution of fire size over recent decades, with a significant increase in the number of very large fires. The study also analyses relationships between characteristics of the forest (altitude, slope, aspect, living fuels and species composition) and the probability of the fire occurrence. The analysis is based on the overlay of forest cover data and perimeters of forest fires during the period (1986–2002). Of the analysed variables, altitude affects most the probability of fire occurrence, with higher proportions of burned forest area at lower altitudes. Stand’s vertical structure is also relevant, with lower proportions of burned area in stands with mature tree cover without understory. The study helps to analyse the strengths and weaknesses of forest and fire management policies, especially those related to forest and fuel management at the landscape level.     

浙江省松阳县森林火灾成因分析及对策探讨

对浙江省松阳县2000～2011年森林火灾发生情况进行了调查与分析,结果表明:松阳县森林火灾以人为活动引起为主,非生产性引起的火灾比例有逐年上升趋势,森林防火形势非常严峻。为有效预防、减少森林火灾发生,通过分析森林火灾发生与月际变化、日间变化、火源因素、植被因素的关系,揭示了森林火灾发生的一般规律,有针对性提出了相应的对策,旨在提高当地森林防火工作的整体水平。     

林火发生预报模型研究进展

森林火灾直接影响森林生态环境质量,严重威胁人类生命财产安全,还会造成病虫害频发、群落退化等次生灾害。由于综合考虑了各类影响林火发生的因子,林火发生预报模型是目前预报结果最为准确的林火预报预测方法。文中从林火驱动因子、林火发生预报模型构建、模型检验方法等3个方面综述国内外林火发生预报模型的发展现状和研究成果,讨论各类林火发生预报模型的优缺点,梳理目前研究中存在的问题,对其研究前景进行展望,并结合我国实际情况提出开展更大空间尺度林火预报的研究建议,以期为相关研究和林火管理工作提供参考。     

Spatio-temporal perspectives of forest fires regimes in a maturing Mediterranean mixed pine landscape

It has been suggested that during the past several decades, the frequency and the intensity of wildfires have markedly increased in the Mediterranean basin. We came to assess this postulation in the forested region of Mount Carmel, Israel. This region is characterized by Quercus spp. and Pistacia spp. maquis and has been intensely afforested with Pinus spp. stands since the 1920s. We compiled a GIS-based database of the fires recorded in the region since 1983, in addition to archiving data beginning from the 1940s. The data were collected from land stewardship agencies’ archives, fire departments and aerial photographs. Prior to the early 1980s, no systematic documentation of the fires was available, rather just sporadic qualitative documentation of the large forest fires that occurred. Between 1944 and 1982, only 6 large fires were documented, while after that 11 large fires occurred. Analysis indicated that the spatial distribution of the fires does not occur at random, and their locations are significantly closer to roadsides compared to an expected random distribution. The annual number of fires and the areas burned during the last two decades were not correlated with annual precipitation in any manner. Accordingly, we suggest that the increased number of large forest fires during the last decades is associated with the maturation and senescence of the planted forest coupled with increased human activities.     

Forest fire risk zone mapping from satellite images and GIS for Baihe Forestry Bureau, Jilin, China

A forest fire can be a real ecological disaster regardless of whether it is caused by natural forces or human activities, it is possible to map forest fire risk zones to minimize the frequency of fires, avert damage, etc. A method integrating remote sensing and GIS was developed and applied to forest fire risk zone mapping for Baihe forestry bureau in this paper. Satellite images were interpreted and classified to generate vegetation type layer and land use layers （roads, settlements and farmlands）. Topographic layers （slope, aspect and altitude） were derived from DEM. The thematic and topographic information was analyzed by using ARC/INFO GIS software. Forest fire risk zones were delineated by assigning subjective weights to the classes of all the layers （vegetation type, slope, aspect, altitude and distance from r3ads, farmlands and settlements） according to their sensitivity to fire or their fire-inducing capability. Five categories of forest fire risk ranging from very high to very low were derived automatically. The mapping result of the study area was found to be in strong agreement with actual fire-affected sites.     

云南松林区的林火与火险等级分区初探

云南松林区发生的森林火灾是多种自然因素和人为活动综合作用的结果。通过对四川省云南松分布区不同区域与林火有关的主要气候因子分析及综合值的比较,结合地形地貌、植被状况和人为活动等多种因素,将我省云南松分布区划分成5个不同等级的火险区,并提出了相应的护林防火对策。     

基于改进的元胞自动机林火蔓延模拟研究与实现

根据我国森林火灾蔓延的特点,在分析了国内外主流林火蔓延模型的基础上,将元胞自动机原理与林火蔓延自身的特点相结合,着重研究了风作用系数、地形坡度调整系数等在元胞自动机中的作用形式,并引入地图代数中距离系数的概念,对原有林火蔓延速度模型进行改进,以提高模拟精度,使模拟结果更加真实地反映现实世界中林火的蔓延特点。最后采用C#语言结合ArcEngine的编程技术,以汕头市某山地DEM(数字高程模型)数据为例,动态模拟了林火蔓延的过程。     

Determination of fire-access zones along road networks in fire-sensitive forests

Wild forest fires are one of the greatest environmental disasters affecting forest resources. Along the coastal zone of the Mediterranean region in Turkey,forested areas are classified as first-degree, fire-sensitive areas. Every year, thousands of hectares of forests have been destroyed in Turkey. In this study, fire-access zones were determined in the Mediterranean forests of Turkey, by utilizing geographic information systems(GIS) technology. The effective reach distance of fire hoses from both sides of roads was considered in order to delineate fireaccess zones. The effective reach distance can vary based on the technical capabilities and hydraulic capacity of fire trucks(minimum and maximum pressures on water pump);terrain structures(uphill, downhill and flat); and ground slope. These factors and their influences were studied in fire sensitive forest areas located in the eastern Mediterranean city of Kahramanmaras? in Turkey. First, terrain structures on both sides of the road network and groundslope classes were determined based on GIS data layers.Then, fire access zones were delineated according to water pressure data, terrain structures, and ground-slope classes.The results indicated that 69.30 % of the forested areas were within the fire-access zones, while the rest of the forest was out of reach the fire hoses. The accessible areas were also calculated for forested areas with different firesensitivity degrees. The accessible areas were 69.59, 69.96,and 67.16 % for the forested areas that are sensitive to fires at the first, second, and third degrees, respectively. This finding has implications for the monitoring and management of fire threats in areas outside of the reach distance.The outside areas should receive extra attention and monitoring during the fire season so that fires are detected ahead of time and management has sufficient time to react.Besides, new roads should be considered for these areas in order to access more lands in a shorter amount of time.     

长沙县森林火灾发生规律研究

根据长沙县"十一五"期间森林火灾发生的统计数据,从地域、时间、火因和肇事者等分析森林火灾发生的规律.结果表明:森林火灾发生存在明显的地域差异,据此可分为重灾区、较重灾区、较轻灾区、轻灾区和无灾区;森林火灾主要发生在防火期内,其中春防期明显多于冬防期,2月或3月为高发期,一天中的起火高峰在10:00—18:00;森林火灾发生主要由人为因素引起,森林火灾的肇事者老人最多,占30.6%。通过对森林火灾发生规律的调查分析,为长沙县"十二五"期间的森林火灾防控对策提出了建议。     

内蒙古大兴安岭林火与气象因子关系研究

基于内蒙古大兴安岭1990—2019年森林火灾历史档案和同期气象因子的数据,对该地区林火与气象因子间的相关性进行了研究。结果表明,林火发生与气象因子间的关系密切。林火发生次数随着温度的升高和降水的减少呈上升趋势;研究区日均相对湿度范围在58%~62%,火灾发生次数最多;林火发生次数与日照时数、日均温、日最高温间均呈显著正相关;过火面积与日均相对湿度间呈显著负相关,与日照时数间呈显著正相关。     

基于信息量模型的西溪流域崩岗风险评估

崩岗是发生在我国南方红壤区的严重的土壤侵蚀现象,不仅破坏了当地的生态环境并且直接影响了生产生活,因此崩岗发生的风险评估是崩岗预警需要解决的关键问题之一。以福建省泉州市安溪县的西溪流域为研究区,筛选崩岗的主要影响因子,借助信息量模型构建崩岗风险评估体系,并评估研究区的崩岗风险。结果表明:河网缓冲距离、海拔高度、相对高差、坡度、坡向、土壤类型、植被覆盖度以及土地利用类型可作为评估崩岗发生的主要风险因子;风险因子的梯度分析结果表明,河网缓冲距离近,坡度15°~35°的阳坡,海拔100~500 m,相对高差>50 m,土壤类型为红壤、赤红壤,植被覆盖度0~20%或40%~80%和土地利用类型为园地、未利用地的区域易发生崩岗;以河网缓冲距离、海拔高度、相对高差等8个筛选因子构建信息量模型,采用接受者操作特征(ROC)曲线对评价结果进行检验,对应的曲线下面积为0.827,精度结果良好。信息量模型对崩岗发生风险评估结果良好,可应用于小流域尺度范围的风险评估。     

Factors influencing the formation of unburned forest islands within the perimeter of a large forest fire

Large forest fires have recently increased in frequency and severity in many ecosystems. Due to the heterogeneity in fuels, weather and topography, these large fires tend to form unburned islands of vegetation. This study focuses on a large forest fire that occurred in north-eastern Spain in 1998, which left large areas of unburned vegetation within its perimeter. Based on a satellite post-fire severity map we searched for the relative influence of biotic and abiotic factors leading to unburned island formation. We divided the area of the fire into individual units we called “slopes” which were meant to separate the differential microclimatic effects of contrasted aspects. The number of unburned islands and their areas were related to 12 variables that influence their formation (i.e. land cover composition, aspect, steepness, forest structure, two landscape indices and weather variables). We hypothesized that unburned vegetation islands would concentrate on northern aspects, in less flammable forests (i.e. broadleaf species) and higher fragmentation to interrupt the advance of fire. While north and western aspects did have a higher presence of unburned vegetation islands, our study suggests greater presence of islands in slopes that are larger (i.e. more continuous areas with relatively homogeneous aspect), with greater proportions of forest cover, with higher wood volumes and with lower proportions of broadleaf species. Climate also played a role, with relative humidity and wind speed positively and negatively correlated to island formation, respectively. Unburned vegetation was more frequent on slopes with lower diversity of land covers and higher dominance of one land cover in the slope. Since slopes with only one land cover (i.e. forests) had more islands than slopes with multiple cover types, we infer that under severe meteorological conditions, fragmented forests can be more affected by wind and by water stress, thus burning more readily than forests that are protected from this edge phenomenon. These results would reinforce forest management strategies that avoid linear features (fire-lines and fire-breaks), to enhance fuel treatments that focus on areas and minimize fragmentation.     

Benefit measurement of the soil and water conservation for ecological forestry engineering

IntroductionThelossofwaterandsoilhasbeentheglobatprobIem.Itstotalareais25millionkm'.or16.8%ofgIobalIandarea.ThefertileSurfacesoilof6obiIIiontflowsintoriverseachyeaIBecauseofsoiIcorrosionthelandof21obillionhm2hasIostfertiIityand...,otbeusedasagricuIturalIand.HumanrecognizestheseverityofIossofwaterandsoilwhileheusesjandresources.Thediff6rentmeasuresarebeingtakeninordertoincreasesoilandwaterconservation.Sev-eralecoIogicaIforestryengineeringshavebeencar-riedoutInChinaforenvironmentconserva…     

Spatial and temporal distribution of forest fire frequency and forest area burnt in Jilin Province,Northeast China

Forest fires caused by natural forces or human activities are one of the major natural risks in Northeast China. The incidence and spatial distribution of these fires vary over time and across the forested areas in Jilin Province, Northeast China. In this study, the incidence and distribution of 6519 forest fires from 1969 to 2013 in the province were investigated. The results indicated that the spatiotemporal distribution of the burnt forest area and the fire frequency varied significantly by month, year, and region. Fire occurrence displayed notable temporal patterns in the years after forest fire prevention measures were strictly implemented by the provincial government. Generally, forest fires in Jilin occurred in months when stubble and straw were burned and human activities were intense during traditional Chinese festivals. Baishan city, Jilin city, and Yanbian were defined as fire-prone regions for their high fire frequency. Yanbian had the highest frequency, and the fires tended to be large with the highest burned area per fire. Yanbian should thus be listed as the key target area by the fire management agency in Jilin Province for better fire prevention.