The impact of climate change on forest fire danger rating in China’s boreal forest

The Great Xing’an Mountains boreal forests were focused on in the northeastern China.The simulated future climate scenarios of IPCC SRES A2a and B2a for both the baseline period of 1961-1990 and the future scenario periods were downscaled by the Delta Method and the Weather Generator to produce daily weather data.After the verification with local weather and fire data,the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System was used to assess the forest fire weather situation under climate change in the study region.An increasing trend of fire weather severity was found over the 21st century in the study region under the both future climate change scenarios,compared to the 1961-1990 baseline period.The annual mean/maximum fire weather index was predicted to rise continuously during 2010-2099,and by the end of the 21st century it is predicted to rise by 22%-52% across much of China’s boreal forest.The significant increases were predicted in the spring from of April to June and in the summer from July to August.In the summer,the fire weather index was predicted to be higher than the current index by as much as 148% by the end of the 21st century.Under the scenarios of SRES A2a and B2a,both the chance of extremely high fire danger occurrence and the number of days of extremely high fire danger occurrence was predicted to increase in the study region.It is anticipated that the number of extremely high fire danger days would increase from 44 days in 1980s to 53-75 days by the end of the 21st century.     

Is the private forest sector adapting to climate change? A study of forest managers in north Wales

? Context

Two-thirds of Britain’s forest area is privately owned. Thus, understanding private forest owners and managers, and their attitudes to uncertainty and change, is essential for the success of climate change adaptation policies.

? Aim

The aims of this study are to (1) assess how beliefs in climate change in the private sector have influenced forest management practices; (2) identify constraints related to changes in species choice and silvicultural systems; (3) analyse the implications for implementing climate change policy in forestry.

? Method

Semi-structured interviews with key informants who provide advice to, or manage woodlands in, the private forest sector in north Wales.

? Results

Woodland managers and some advisers are not generally convinced of a need to adapt. They feel the future is uncertain, more usually in relation to tree disease than to climate change itself. Species choice is the principle focus of adaptation activities and reveals a deep divide in opinion. Commercial advisors look to new exotics but are inhibited by absence of markets, while small-scale owners rely more on native genetic diversity.

? Conclusions

Findings that are likely to apply widely include: the influential role of forest agents in forest management decisions including species choice; lack of confidence in climate change predictions, and in markets; more immediate concerns about tree pests and diseases; demand for leadership from the public sector, and for engagement amongst the private sector. Further research is needed across a wider area to test the variability in relationship between attitudes and behaviours, and local conditions including climate change predictions.     

A new methodology for estimating forest NPP based on forest inventory data—A case study of Chinese pine forest

Accurately estimating forest net primary productivity (NPP) plays an important role in study of global carbon budget. A NPP model reflecting the synthetic effects of both biotic (forest stand age, A and stem volume, V) and climatic factors (mean annual actual evapotranspiration, E) was developed for Chinese pine (Pinus tabulaeformis) forest by making full use of Forest Inventory Data (FID) and dynamically assessing forest productivity. The NPP of Chinese pine forest was estimated by using this model and the fourth FID (1989–1993), and the spatial pattern of NPP of Chinese pine forest was given by Geography Information System (GIS) software. The results indicated that mean NPP value, of Chinese pine forest was 7.82 t m⁻²·a⁻¹ and varied at the range of 3.32–11.87 t hm⁻²·a⁻¹. NPP distribution of Chinese pine forests was significantly different in different regions, higher in the south and lower in the north of China. In terms of the main distribution regions of Chinese pine, the NPPs of Chinese pine forest in Shanxi and Shaanxi provinces were in middle level, with an average NPP of 7.4 t hm⁻²·a⁻¹, that in the southern and the eastern parts (e.g. Shichuang Hunan, Henan, and Liaoning provinces) was higher (over 7.7 t hm⁻²·a⁻¹), and that in the northern part and western part (e.g. Neimenggu and Ningxia provinces) was lower (below 5 t hm⁻²·a⁻¹). This study provides an efficient way for using FID to understand the dynamics of foest NPP and evaluate its effects on global climate change. Foundation item: This study was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos. 30028001, 49905005), National Key Basic Research Specific Foundation (G1999043407); the Chinese Academy of Sciences (KSC2-1-07). Biography: ZHAO Min (1973-), female, Ph. D. in Laboratory of Quantitative Vegetation Ecology, Institute of Botany, the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100093, P. R. China. Responsible editor: Zhu Hong     

Climate change impacts on stand structure and competitive interactions in a southern Swedish spruce–beech forest

It is believed that European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) will increase its competitive ability at its northern range margin in Scandinavia due to climate change. In mixed old-growth forests of beech and Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) at Siggaboda nature reserve (southern Sweden), stand structure characteristics were sequentially recorded in the years 2004, 2005 and 2007 as well as growth in stem diameter using tree-coring analyses. Using these measurements, we studied the effects on stand dynamics of an extreme storm event (2005 “Gudrun” hurricane), drought and heat (mid-summer 2006, spring 2007) and subsequent bark beetle attacks on spruce (growing season 2007), overlaid with warming tendencies. The storm, which caused disastrous damage in many stands nearby, had comparatively little impact on the structure of the spruce–beech stand. All together, only 32 trees (19 spruces, 10 beeches, 3 other species) per hectare were thrown or broken mainly in the leeward direction (NE) or impacted by secondary damage by uprooted neighbour trees; this represents 7% of the total tree number and 11% of the growing stock. Diameter and height structure did not change significantly. However, the 2006 drought and the 2007 attack of biotic agents changed the stand structure and composition strongly due to the death of about 19% of the dominating older spruce trees that accounted for 35% of total stand volume. This resulted in a considerable increase in beech’s contribution to stem number (4% increase) and wood volume of the living stand (7% increase). A comparison of diameter growth of beech and spruce during the periods 1894–1949 and 1950–2005 showed a distinct decrease in growth superiority of spruce during the last 50 years. These results support the idea of a northward migration of European beech as a nemoral tree species in Sweden, due to a higher tolerance to the abiotic and biotic threats accompanying climate change and an increased competitive ability compared to boreal tree species Norway spruce.     

Owner mapping for forest scenario modelling — A Lithuanian case study

Ample research on private forest owners (PFOs) has established high heterogeneity in owners' objectives, motivations and management decisions. Such heterogeneity is, however, rarely taken into account in forest scenario modelling. This study, in contrast, conducts a detailed forest owner mapping that feeds into simulations of ecosystem services (ES) under alternative future scenarios. First, we identify four private forest owner types (FOT) – Forest Businessmen, Household Foresters, Passive Forest Lovers, and Ad Hoc Owners through in-depth interviews and qualitative analyses on a case study area in western Lithuania. Next, each forest estate and forest compartment is assigned a FOT by combining the property registry and forest characteristics with opinions of two types of local experts: state forest managers and inspectors from the State Forest Service. Third, a set of forest management (FM) programmes is specified using field interviews and desktop research, FM records, and expert judgement for each forest compartment. Finally, ES provision is projected using a behavioural matrix combining management styles of FOTs with details of FM programmes. We simulate the dynamics of profits from forestry activities, accumulated carbon in live biomass and tree species diversity under a reference scenario without substantial changes; and a policy intervention scenario. The study demonstrates that treating forest owners as a homogenous group overestimates profits from timber and underestimates the provision of the other analysed ES, potentially misinforming policy decisions.     

The impact of climate change on fire risk in Daxing’anling,China

Daxing'anling is a key region for forest fire prevention in China.Assessing changes in fire risk in the future under multiple climatic scenarios will contribute to our understanding of the influences of climate change for the region and provide a reference for applying adaptive measures for fire management.This study analyzed the changes in fire weather indices and the fire season under four climate scenarios(RCP2.6,RCP4.5,RCP6.0,RCP8.5)for 2021–2050 using data from five global climate models together with observation data.The results showed that the analog data could project the average state of the climate for a given period but were not effective for simulating extreme weather conditions.Compared with the baseline period(1971–2000),the period 2021–2050 was predicted to have an increase in average temperature of 2.02–2.65 °C and in annual precipitation 25.4–40.3 mm,while the fire weather index(FWI) was predicted to increase by6.2–11.2% and seasonal severity rating(SSR) by5.5–17.2%.The DMC(Duff moisture code),ISI(initial spread index),BUI(build-up index),FWI and SSR were predicted to increase significantly under scenarios RCP4.5,RCP6.0,and RCP8.5.Furthermore,days with high or higher fire danger rating were predicted to be prolonged by 3–6 days,with the change in the southern region being greater under scenarios RCP4.5,RCP6.0,and RCP8.5.     

Understory dynamics after disturbance accelerate succession from spruce to beech-dominated forest—the Siggaboda case study

??Context

It is assumed that climate change will favour European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) to Norway spruce (Picea abies [L.] Karst.) at its northern range margins due to climate change and induced disturbance events.

??Aims

An old-growth mixed forest of spruce and beech, situated near the northern beech margin, was studied to reveal effects of disturbances and response processes on natural forest dynamics, focussing on the understory.

??Methods

We carried out analyses on understory dynamics of beech and spruce in relation to overstory release. This was done based on a sequence of stand and tree vitality inventories after a series of abiotic and biotic disturbances.

??Results

It became apparent that beech (understory) has a larger adaptive capacity to disturbance impacts and overstory release (68 % standing volume loss) than spruce. Understory dynamics can play a key role for forest succession from spruce to beech-dominated forests. Disturbances display an acceleration effect on forest succession in the face of climate change.

??Conclusion

Beech is poised strategically to replace spruce as the dominant tree species at the study area. Due to an increasing productivity and a lower risk of stand failure, beech may raise into the focus of forestry in southern Sweden.     

Production potential,biodiversity and soil properties of forest reclamations: Opportunities or risk of introduced coniferous tree species under climate change?

European Journal of Forest Research - In the time of ongoing climate change and the increasing area of post-mining landscape, the successful afforestation of reclamation sites by suitable adaptive...     

Effects of selection cutting on the forest structure and species diversity of evergreen broa-leaved forest in northern Fujian, southern China

The short-term effects of selection cutting of different intensities on the forest structure and species diversity of evergreen broad-leaved forest in northern Fujian Province were investigated and analyzed. The results showed that selection cutting of low and medium intensities caused little variation in the forest structure. After cutting, the dominant species retained their leading status in the community. However, the community structure changed significantly following selection cutting of high and extra-high intensities; the status of the dominant species of the community declined dramatically. Some tree species began to disappear from the sampling plots. Except for extra-high intensity cutting, the diversity of tree species did not change significantly for the other three cutting intensities. However, the evenness of the stands was very different among the four kinds of cutting plots. For low and medium intensity selection cutting, the evenness declined slightly. For extra-high intensity selection cutting, the evenness increased to some extent, which might be due to a more even distribution of tree species after cutting. Cutting operations resulted in some adverse reactions to development of arborous species diversity of evergreen broad-leaved forest, particularly serious damage to the forest canopy. But the rational selection cuttings, which may benefit the restoration and maintenance of species diversity over a long period and may come about from the variations in environmental factors such as sunlight, temperature and humidity.     

Effects of wheeled cable skidder on rut formation in skid trail — a case study in Hyrcanian forest

The impact of skidding operations on forest soils can be divided into three major categories: soil profile disturbance, soil compaction, and soil puddling and rutting. The present study was designed as a factorial experiment in the Kheyrud Forest with a Timberjack cable skidder to evaluate the influences of number of machine passes and soil moisture of skid trails on rutting over a fine-grained soil, and to quantify these effects. The effects of soil moisture of 20% 30%, 30% 40% and 40% 50% and different levels of compaction were studied. Compaction treatments were applied using different numbers of skidding passes (1, 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30 times). Result shows that an increase in the number of machine passes could increase rut depth, but the majority of rutting was occurred after the initial few machine passes. Also rut depth at soil moisture of 40% 50% was higher than rut depths at soil moisture of 30% 40% and 20% 30%. The average rut depth in soil with 20% 30%, 30% 40% and 40% 50% moisture was 17, 22 and 35 cm, respectively. Rut depths were increased significantly with soil moisture and number of machine passes. It is suggested that skidding operations should be planned when soil conditions are dry in order to minimize rutting., but if skidding must be done under wet conditions, the operations should be stopped when machine traffic could create deep ruts.     

Relationships of climate change and tree ring of Betula ermanii tree line forest in Changbai Mountain

Based on the tree-ring growth characteristics of Erman＇s birch （Betula ermanii charm.） and the relationships between it and climatic ）＇actors at elevation of 1950m, the sensitivity of tree lines in Changbai Mountain to climatic factors was assessed. The results indicated tree line forest in Changbai Mountain had an obvious sensitivity to climate factors. However, difference from other study sits is that the main climatic control factor on tree-ring growth was not current growth season temperatures, as might be expected, but previous winter and current March temperature. Although the precipitation in the region was quite abundant, the tree-ring growth was still significantly correlated with the precipitation during previous winter and current spring. Additionally, climatic factors which influenced the Erman＇s birch growth were not the yearly variables, but seasonal and monthly variables. Therefore, the reported increase in yearly mean temperature and total yearly precipitation since 1980s was not responded by sustained increase in ring widths in recent decades.     

Effects of climate factors on the height increment of poplar protection forest in the riverbank field

Based on the data of stand investigation and stem analysis, the effects of climate factors on the poplar protection forest increment in the riverbank field of the Dalinghe and Xiaolinghe rivers of Liaoning Province, China were studied by stepwise regression procedure and grey system theories and methods. A regression model reflecting the correlation between the height increment of poplar protection forest and climatic factor was developed. The order of grey relevance for the effect of climatic factors on the height increment of poplar protection forest is: light>water>heat, and it could be interpreted that the poplar increment was mainly influenced by light factor, water factor, and heat factor. This result will provide scientific basis for the intensive cultivation and regenration of the poplar protection forest in riverbank field in similar regions in China. Foundation item: This study was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 30270250), and a key direction project (No. C12MC-SCMS013) Biography: LI Hai-mei (1975-), female, Ph. D, department of Landscpe Architecture. Art. Laiyang Agricultural College, Shandong Qingdao 266109, P. R. China. Responsible editor: Song Funan     

Does future climate change facilitate expansion of evergreen broad-leaved tree species in the human-disturbed landscape of the Korean Peninsula? Implication for monitoring design of the impact assessment

To quantitatively assess future change of evergreen broad-leaved tree species’ distributions in human-disturbed landscapes of the Korean Peninsula under climate change, potential habitats (PHs) were projected for four important evergreen broad-leaved tree species (Quercus acuta, Castanopsis sieboldii, Machilus thunbergii, and Neolitsea sericea) by species distribution models (SDMs). The distribution data (presence/absence) of the target species in Korea and Japan were used as response variables for SDMs, and climatic data were used as explanatory variables. Three general circulation models under A2 emission scenarios were used as future climate scenarios for the years 2070–2099. Potential habitats masked by land-use data (PHLUs) were projected to assess the impact of anthropogenic activities. Highly accurate SDMs were obtained for all the target species. The current PHs were decreased to 21–35 % by the anthropogenic activities. Future PHLUs for all the target species were projected to increase by 2.0–18.5 times of current PHLUs. These results suggest that all the target species are applicable as indicator species for monitoring in the Korean Peninsula, even if anthropogenic effects are incorporated. Variation of the increasing rate was caused by the differences in the response to temperature changes. M. thunbergii responded sensitively to the increase of minimum temperature of coldest month and had a largest increase in PHLUs under future climate. Therefore, M. thunbergii is considered to be most appropriate species for monitoring the changes of horizontal distributions above all focal evergreen broad-leaved tree species.     

Combining scientific and stakeholder knowledge in future scenario development — A forest landscape case study in northern Sweden

Northern Swedish forests provide multiple ecosystem services. Integrating these values into the forest planning process frequently requires that not only forest owners but also other stakeholders be involved. The objective of this study is to assess the potential of future scenario development as a tool in forest planning. In a case study of the Vilhelmina municipality in northern Sweden, forest owners and stakeholders were interviewed, and a workshop was held to discuss important factors for the future development of the local landscape regarding ecological, socioeconomic and political issues. Combined with a researcher-conducted process, this resulted in three alternative scenarios. We conclude that the scenario development process has produced information that can be used in forest planning. The participatory element of the scenario development process could be extended further to enhance communication, learning and knowledge exchange. The participants' contribution to the scenario construction could also be elaborated, e.g., by further involving stakeholders in the formulation of alternative future manifestations and in the elaboration of scenarios. To achieve this, it is necessary to adapt the quantitative methods to the participatory situation, to foster discussion qualities, to secure representation and increase motivation for participation in different ways.     

Forest product trade,wood consumption,and forest conservation—the case of 61 countries

Trade barriers of forest products are often advocated in the name of protecting forest resources. Whether the promoting of trade of forest products will increase or decrease the global forest resources is still a matter of debate. We offer an assessment of how forest product trade helps shape observed forest change, by relating wood consumption change to trade of forest products based on cross-section data from 61 countries in 2010. The result shows that wood outputs have positive effects on wood consumption. Compared to domestic production, the result suggests that imports of forest products can help reduce wood consumption. This may indicate that trade liberalization can promote the allocation efficiency of timber resources across the global, which can improve the utilization efficiency and reduce the wood consumption in the world to protect the global forest resources. It is suggested that the high-efficient harvest and wood-processing technological transfer should be advocated in the international community to contribute to global forest conservation.     

The Austrian domestic forest policy community in change? Impacts of the globalisation and Europeanisation of forest politics

The interest intermediation system has always attracted the attention of forest policy scientists. However, research on this subject has focused on the national level, despite the fact that forest issues are increasingly prominent on international and European agendas, both in the EU and the Pan-European Process on the Protection of Forests in Europe. Accordingly, the impacts of the globalisation and Europeanisation of forest policy and the peculiarities of multi-level policy processes have not been sufficiently taken into account. This article examines how international forest politics and the integration of national actors in the EU multi-level system of joint decision-making affect national actor constellations. To this end, I draw on the advocacy coalition framework to depict the Austrian forest policy network and its actors’ dispute on forest certification, as well as on hypotheses and empirical results of multi-level governance scholars and on my own preliminary results to investigate the likely effects of the evolving EU forest policy. The discussion provides some hypotheses and indications that national forest policy networks might be subject to significant change.     

Effect of forest structure and health on the relative surface temperature captured by airborne thermal imagery – Case study in Norway Spruce-dominated stands in Southern Finland

The effect of forest structure and health on the relative surface temperature captured by airborne thermal imagery was investigated in Norway Spruce-dominated stands in Southern Finland. Airborne thermal imagery, airborne scanning light detection and ranging (LiDAR) data and 92 field-measured sample plots were acquired at the area of interest. The surface temperature correlated most negatively with the logarithm of stem volume, Lorey’s height and the logarithm of basal area at a resolution of 254?m² (9?m radius). LiDAR-derived metrics: the standard deviations of the canopy heights, canopy height (upper percentiles and maximum height) and canopy cover percentage were most strongly negatively correlated with the surface temperature. Although forest structure has an effect on the detected surface temperature, higher temperatures were detected in severely defoliated canopies and the difference was statistically significant. We also found that the surface temperature differences between the segmented canopy and the entire plot were greater in the defoliated plots, indicating that thermal images may also provide some additional information for classifying forests health status. Based on our results, the effects of forest structure on the surface temperature captured by airborne thermal imagery should be taken into account when developing forest health mapping applications using thermal imagery.     

Communication between forest scientists and forest policy-makers in Europe — A survey on both sides of the science/policy interface

Improving communication in the science/policy interface has received increased attention from scientists and policy-makers in recent years. This paper discusses recent science/policy interface literature and reports on the results of two surveys, sent out to forest scientists and forest policy-makers, asking them to evaluate communication in the forest science/policy interface in Europe. The questionnaires are based on a model of the communication process between scientists and policy-makers which was developed for this study, comprising information sources, channels, types and topics of information. The results indicate that policy-makers and scientists largely share the same ideas on how they should communicate with each other. However, the results also show that policy-makers' expectations from science differ from scientists' estimations on what policy-makers consider relevant topics of scientific information. Another result of the study is that scientists and policy-makers give largely the same suggestions for improving communication in the science/policy interface.