Communicating complexity: Integrated assessment of trade-offs concerning soil fertility management within African farming systems to support innovation and development

African farming systems are highly heterogeneous: between agroecological and socioeconomic environments, in the wide variability in farmers’ resource endowments and in farm management. This means that single solutions (or ‘silver bullets’) for improving farm productivity do not exist. Yet to date few approaches to understand constraints and explore options for change have tackled the bewildering complexity of African farming systems. In this paper we describe the Nutrient Use in Animal and Cropping systems - Efficiencies and Scales (NUANCES) framework. NUANCES offers a structured approach to unravel and understand the complexity of African farming to identify what we term ‘best-fit’ technologies - technologies targeted to specific types of farmers and to specific niches within their farms. The NUANCES framework is not ‘just another computer model’! We combine the tools of systems analysis and experimentation, detailed field observations and surveys, incorporate expert knowledge (local knowledge and results of research), generate databases, and apply simulation models to analyse performance of farms, and the impacts of introducing new technologies. We have analysed and described complexity of farming systems, their external drivers and some of the mechanisms that result in (in)efficient use of scarce resources. Studying sites across sub-Saharan Africa has provided insights in the trajectories of change in farming systems in response to population growth, economic conditions and climate variability (cycles of drier and wetter years) and climate change. In regions where human population is dense and land scarce, farm typologies have proven useful to target technologies between farmers of different production objectives and resource endowment (notably in terms of land, labour and capacity for investment). In such regions we could categorise types of fields on the basis of their responsiveness to soil improving technologies along soil fertility gradients, relying on local indicators to differentiate those that may be managed through ‘maintenance fertilization’ from fields that are highly-responsive to fertilizers and fields that require rehabilitation before yields can improved. Where human population pressure on the land is less intense, farm and field types are harder to discern, without clear patterns. Nutrient cycling through livestock is in principle not efficient for increasing food production due to increased nutrient losses, but is attractive for farmers due to the multiple functions of livestock. We identified trade-offs between income generation, soil conservation and community agreements through optimising concurrent objectives at farm and village levels. These examples show that future analyses must focus at farm and farming system level and not at the level of individual fields to achieve appropriate targeting of technologies - both between locations and between farms at any given location. The approach for integrated assessment described here can be used ex ante to explore the potential of best-fit technologies and the ways they can be best combined at farm level. The dynamic and integrated nature of the framework allows the impact of changes in external drivers such as climate change or development policy to be analysed. Fundamental questions for integrated analysis relate to the site-specific knowledge and the simplification of processes required to integrate and move from one level to the next.     

GAMEDE: A global activity model for evaluating the sustainability of dairy enterprises Part I – Whole-farm dynamic model

 Crop-livestock farms are complex systems. The interactions operating in such systems involve decisional, biophysical, structural, and environmental factors. Moreover, as farmers face a large range of management options, tools are needed to support their decision-making to enable them to reach production levels meeting their objectives and compatible with their human and physical resources, while controlling their effects on the environment. Gamede, a whole-dairy-farm model, has been developed to explore this complexity and to represent dynamically the effect of management decisions on biomass and nitrogen flows and on numerous sustainability indicators, such as milk and forage crop productivity, labour requirements, nitrogen balance, and nitrogen efficiency.This article describes the integration of six modules accounting for biophysical processes in a dairy farm (forage production; forage conditioning; herd demography; milk, excreta and animal biomass productions; grazing, quality of fertilisers; and nitrogen gaseous emissions) together with a decision system accounting for the farmer’s strategy and technical operations. Most of the six biophysical modules incorporate mathematical models from the literature, but the decision system stems from our own original work.Six commercial farms with different structures, agro-climatic conditions and management strategies were used for validation. The model can explain the differences found in their sustainability indicators at the year scale. The intra-year variability of the main biomass stocks and flows is also well explained. This quantitative validation was completed by a qualitative validation from researcher, adviser and farmer points of view, including simulations of prospective scenarios.     

Increasing incomes of Malian cotton farmers: Is elimination of US subsidies the only solution?

In a WTO battle and the press the argument is often made that eliminating US cotton subsidies would have a large effect on the incomes and competitive position of farmers in developing countries. In Francophone West Africa cotton productivity has stagnated after rapid gains in the first two decades following independence (1960-1980). A farm model was constructed based on farmers’ definition of their decision-making framework which they use to respond to income and weather risks. With this model the effects on farmers of eliminating US subsidies are compared with various productivity increasing measures for cotton and sorghum in Dioila, Mali. Dioila is located in a representative cotton region producing 16% of the cotton in Mali. We include sorghum due to its importance for consumption and the observation of Malian farmers substituting cereals (sorghum and maize) for cotton as the returns to cotton have fallen in the 21st Century. In the farm model, the elasticity of transmission of a change in the world cotton price to the farm gate price is taken into account. The gains from eliminating US subsides are small. In contrast, the various technological alternatives including Bt cotton introduction, the use of higher fertilization levels for cotton, and the introduction of improved sorghum cultivars and moderate fertilization along with a marketing package all have substantially higher returns Even with substantial improvement in the mechanisms enabling farmers to benefit from the higher prices resulting from elimination of US subsidies, there are still much higher returns resulting from the various types of productivity increases.     

Use of available information at a European level to construct crop nitrogen response curves for the regions of the EU

Nowadays European agriculture is evolving in a context where policy-making and environmental concerns play a key role. To better assess agro-environmental policies, the AROPAj agricultural supply model needs to take into account the technical characteristics of crop management for different farms. A method to build up specific relationships between yield and nitrogen fertilization that takes into account agronomic techniques is proposed in this paper. The nitrogen response curve is based on an exponential function that integrates economic properties consistently from an agronomic point of view. In AROPAj, individual production systems (farm types) do not have a given location within a specified region and in databases technical information is scarce. The method involves determining technical and physical characteristics, inputs that allow the STICS crop model to assess the yield response to nitrogen of each crop on every farm type. From this information, a nitrogen response curve can be drawn up for each crop of each one of the farms. It can take into account both nitrogen from purchased fertilizer and nitrogen from animal effluents produced on farm. The method was designed to be adaptable to any European region, and tests carried out on two French regions covering a wide range of situations (crops, soils, climates and techniques) showed it was able to cope with varying prices and environments. The agronomic consistency of STICS inputs and curve shapes was also checked. When incorporated into the AROPAj economic model, the response curves can be used to render farms more sensitive to agricultural policy scenarios, by allowing their optimal fertilization level to be adjusted.     

An integrated sustainability assessment of mediterranean sheep farms with different degrees of intensification

In the European Mediterranean basin, pasture-based sheep farming systems are mostly located in marginal/High Nature Value areas. These production systems are multifunctional, and their economic, environmental and social roles are equally important and recognised by policy makers and by society. However, the number of animals and holdings is decreasing, and there is great uncertainty regarding the reproducibility of these farming systems, which depends on many internal and external farm factors and their interactions. The aim of this paper was to perform a comprehensive assessment of sustainability in different sheep farming systems in north eastern Spain using the MESMIS framework. We followed a case-study approach to perform an in-depth investigation of 4 sheep meat and dairy farms with different intensities of reproduction management. Critical points of sustainability, including weaknesses and opportunities, were obtained using a participatory process with stakeholders (farmers and technical advisers) that resulted in the selection of 37 sustainability indicators that were classified according to the systemic attributes defined by MESMIS (productivity, stability, self-reliance, adaptability, equity) and according to the classical sustainability pillars (social, economic and environmental). Some underlying patterns could be observed when analysing sustainability pillars, attributes and indicators. A positive relationship between productivity and intensification level in meat farms was observed; however, economic sustainability was determined not only by on-farm but also by off-farm activities. The economic efficiency of farming (without considering subsidies) was mainly explained by the capture of added value in the dairy systems and the combination of high animal productivity as well as high forage and feed self-sufficiency in the meat systems. Social issues were also central to explaining sustainability at the farm level, including the prospects of generational turnover and the manner in which farmers perceive and rate their activity. A clear trade-off between economic and environmental indicators was observed, i.e., the higher the economic sustainability, the lower the environmental sustainability. Each farm scored differently for diverse attributes, pillars and individual indicators. The scores differed according to size, structure, resource availability and managerial skills, which implies that it would be difficult to apply a holistic sustainability analysis to farming systems instead of individual farms. A number of methodological questions arose during the evaluation process relative to the stakeholders perception of these indicators, their relevance and meaning, the reference values for comparison, or their validity to assess sustainability across spatial and temporal scales. These questions are discussed in the paper.     

A dynamic bio-economic model to simulate optimal adjustments of suckler cow farm management to production and market shocks in France

Tactical adjustments to seasonal weather conditions and beef price may generate additional income or avoid losses in French beef cattle farms. Due to the length of the suckler cow production cycle, adjustment decisions may impact not only on current production and profit but also on future farm outcomes. To better understand the consequences of shocks and subsequent production adjustments on the evolution of farm earnings and production over time, we built a dynamic recursive bio-economic farm model. Our model introduced simultaneously the possibility of adjusting herd size and herd composition, diet composition and diet energy content, as well as crop rotation, haymaking and feed stocks, taking into account both their short- and long-term consequences. An application is provided to test impacts of crop yield and beef price shocks of different intensities. Main simulated adjustments to face unfavourable weather shocks are (1) purchased feed in order to maintain animal production objectives, and (2) area of pasture harvested for haymaking. Very severe beef price shocks induce forced sales. Weather shocks affect farm net profit not only of the current year but also of the following years. Profit losses caused by unfavourable weather conditions are not compensated by gains in favourable ones and this differential is amplified when intensity of shocks rises.     

Evaluating crop-livestock-based farming systems: A village level study in the dry zone rainfed district of Sri Lanka

In Sri Lanka cropping enterprises interact with livestock production on peasant farms. This analysis of the crop-livestock farming system aims at understanding the existing constraints and interactions between crops and livestock in these farms. The main objective of the study is to describe the crop-livestock integrated farming systems in three rainfed villages in the Moneragala district of Sri Lanka, and to evaluate these systems in terms of maximizing farm incomes from the different crop and livestock components of the systems. A field survey was conducted to collect data from 153 farming families for the Maha season of 1982/83. A linear programming model was formulated to test the hypothesis.The results show that in general the activities for lowland rice, highland rice, sugar cane, labour, farm cash cost, and MVP (compost) are higher in the optimal farm plan than in the actual farm situation. The livestock in the optimal plan is mainly confined to milch cattle. However, with the present high level of manutrition among rural livestock industry emphasis should be placed on the expansion of the rural livestock industry in the study villages. The optimal plan also suggests the use of crop residues as a substitute for compost for farm crops. Hence, in the context of escalating prices of chemical fertilizers, research is required to find the suitability of crop residues and household residues as substitutes for compost. Increases in supplementary irrigation may result in the expansion of the farm area and hence the farm income. Other methods of increasing farm income include: replacing hired labour with non-utilized family labour, increased agricultural research, and extension activity regarding the use of modern inputs by farmers on crops.     

A method for exploring sustainable development options at farm scale: a case study for vegetable farms in South Uruguay

The methodology presented in this paper aims at analysing whether there is room for improvement of vegetable farmers’ income in Canelón Grande (Uruguay), while reducing soil erosion and improving physical and biological soil fertility, and to gain insight in the influence of farmers’ resource availability on the opportunities for sustainable development. The (generic) approach we developed to support re-design of farming systems in this region is unique in dealing with complex temporal interactions in crop rotations and spatial heterogeneity on farms in one integrated method, while revealing trade-off between economic and environmental objectives. Rather than an arbitrary sub-set, all feasible crop rotations were generated, using a tool named ROTAT. The crop rotations were combined with a range of production techniques according to pre-defined design criteria to create a wide variety of alternative production activities at the field scale. We used process-based simulation models supplemented with empirical data and expert knowledge to quantify inputs and outputs of production activities. We developed a mixed integer linear programming model (MILP), named Farm Images, to allocate production activities to a farm with land units differing in soil quality, while maximising or minimising socio-economic and environmental objectives, subject to constraints at the farm level. Production activities comprised current practices as well as activities new to the area. We used Farm Images to design farm systems for seven existing farms in Canelón Grande with different resource availability. The farm systems designed by the model had higher family income than current systems for six of the seven farms studied. The estimated average soil erosion per ha decreased by a factor of 2–4 in the farm systems proposed compared to the current systems, while the rate of change of soil organic matter increased from negative in the current systems to +130 to +280 kg ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ in the proposed farm systems. The degree to which the objectives could be achieved was strongly affected by farm resource endowment, i.e., particularly by the fraction of the area irrigated, soil quality and labour availability per ha. The study suggests that decreasing the area of vegetable crops by introducing long crop rotations with pastures and green manure during the inter-crop periods and integrating beef cattle production into the farm systems would often be a better strategy than the actual farmers’ practice.     

Characteristics and economic viability of milk production in the smallholder farming systems in The Gambia

Domestic milk production has been for a long time hindered by many factors including lack of interest from decision makers, distorted economic policy and biotechnical constraints. For the last 20 years, many developing countries have been attempting to develop the domestic milk production sector. However, research on the basic realities and the viability status of enterprises within this sector remain largely unproved in many developing countries. This study focuses on the characteristic of smallholder milk producers in The Gambia. Data were collected from 90 smallholder farm households to characterise milk producers and evaluate the profitability and viability status of this activity. Based on current typology of farms and gross margin analyses at farm level, the study identified two resource-based types of smallholder farms. The current milk production system is surely viable. Constraints to increased productivity include lack of improved technology at farm level and weak institutional support. Despite the low viability status, it is shown that milk production generates reliable incomes, which could be a departure for most farmers to intensify farming systems, particularly in areas where no loan schemes exist for purchasing agricultural inputs.     

BANAD: A farm model for ex ante assessment of agro-ecological innovations and its application to banana farms in Guadeloupe

The ex ante assessment of innovative agro-ecological innovations is a key step in the development of more sustainable crop management systems. To this end, models are useful tools because they make it possible to rapidly assess numerous innovations in different contexts. Whereas many farm optimisation models focusing on the farmer’s strategic decision to adopt new crop management systems have been published, little attention has been given to the ex ante modelling of the dynamic operational impacts of innovation adoption at the farm level. BANAD, a mechanistic model for such applications, is proposed. It allows the ex ante assessment of innovative management systems including new agro-ecological techniques, while taking into account different farming contexts and policy and market conditions. It includes three components: (i) a crop management system model, (ii) a crop model (SIMBA) and (iii) a farming system model. Our results applied to the ex ante assessment of six innovative banana management systems for three contrasted farm types in Guadeloupe showed that the impacts of agro-ecological innovations, which include rotations, improved fallow, intercropping, pest-resistant cultivar, and an integrated organic system, can vary considerably according to (i) the farm type in which the innovation is integrated, (ii) the nature of the agro-ecological innovations, and (iii) the criteria considered and the temporal horizon of the assessment. Innovative intercropping systems that were effective at the field level in terms of the yield improvement and decreased pesticide use could be problematic at the farm level because they increased the workload and decreased income. The adoption of rotations or improved fallow seemed to be relevant for smallholders but could induce a critical period of 1.5-2.5 years during which income decreased drastically. Under certain conditions of markets and subsidies, very environmentally friendly innovations that are less productive can however be economically effective.     

Crop yields under the traditional cropping patterns in a middle-belt savanna agro-ecological zone of Nigeria

A farming systems study was carried out from 1983 through 1985 among the rural farmers of the Middle-Belt agro-ecological zone of Benue State in Nigeria. The study aimed at providing the baseline data needed for evaluating the traditional cropping patterns and for assessing the magnitude of their effects on yields and returns from farms. Crop yields were found to be affected by several components of traditional cropping systems: fallow length, crop combinations in inter-cropping patterns, crop sequences and dates of planting. Variation of crop performance is such that the development in the area of well articulated farming systems research through ‘on the farm’ experimentation will provide a framework for improving the farmers' yields through modifications to the farming system.     

Characterising rice-based farming systems to identify opportunities for adopting water efficient cultivation methods in Tamil Nadu, India

Efficient water use in rice cultivation is a prerequisite for sustaining food security for the rice consuming population of India. Novel rice production practices, including water-saving techniques, modifications in transplanting, spacing, weeding and nutrient management, have been developed and shown to be effective on farm, but adoption of these techniques by farmers has remained restricted. Potential constraints include technical difficulties with new practices, and labour and gender issues which differ between farms. On the basis of a rapid survey of 100 rice-based farms, four farm types were identified based on their socio-economic and biophysical characteristics. Detailed farm surveys were conducted on three representative farms of each farm type to evaluate land use patterns, use of inputs such as water, labour, nutrient, capital and machinery, income from crop and animal production and off-farm activities. Opportunities exist for one or more new rice cultivation techniques to be adopted in all the four farm types. For all farm types, however, the opportunities for use of water-saving irrigation were the least promising. In general, adoption of water-saving irrigation will not improve farmers’ livelihoods despite its importance in reducing water scarcity problems at regional scale. At farm scale, the potential for adoption of water-saving irrigation depends on the season, location of fields and the irrigation source. Changes in government policies such as rules and regulations, pricing, institution building and infrastructure development, as well as training and education of farmers are needed to improve the adoption of modified methods for rice cultivation.     

An LP-model to analyse economic and ecological sustainability on Dutch dairy farms: model presentation and application for experimental farm “de Marke”

Farm level modelling can be used to determine how farm management adjustments and environmental policy affect different sustainability indicators. In this paper indicators were included in a dairy farm LP (linear programming)-model to analyse the effects of environmental policy and management measures on economic and ecological sustainability on Dutch dairy farms. For analysing ecological sustainability, seven indicators were included in the model: eutrophication potential, nitrate concentration in groundwater, water use, acidification potential, global warming potential, terrestrial ecotoxicity, and aquatic ecotoxicity. Net farm income was included for measuring economic sustainability. The farm structure of “De Marke” formed the basis for three optimisations: (1) basis situation without environmental policy, (2) situation with Dutch environmental policy for 2004, and (3) situation with farm management measures applied at “De Marke”. The Dutch environmental policy was included to comply with the EC nitrate directive. It resulted in lower fertiliser use and consequently in a decrease in sales of maize. This led to a decrease in net farm income of ca. €2500. Including this policy improved most used ecological indicators (except for ecotoxicity) and showed to be an effective tool to reduce the environmental impact of dairy farming. Adapting the model with farm management measures applied at experimental farm “De Marke” resulted in even better ecological performance compared to the situation with environmental policy. Nonetheless this increase in ecological performance led to a considerably lower net farm income (€14,500).     

A bio-economic model of small-ruminant production in the semi-arid tropics of the Northeast region of Brazil: Part 2—Linear programming applications and results

Survey data covering production systems for mixed farms in the Northeast region of Brazil has been synthesized within a linear programming (LP) framework. The resulting model contains activities covering the production of cattle, sheep and goats, and a vector of alternative cropping activities. Farm resources include two categories of grazing land, planted forages, family labour, two categories of hired labour, and working capital. The major livestock activities represented in the region were included as production options.Initial results did not discriminate between categories of available grazing resources. Therefore, cattle, by virtue of their higher dressing percentages and higher price per kilogram, were the optimal livestock species. A series of adjustments was then carried out to reflect types of feed resources and patterns of animal species selectivity. Optimal farm solutions for a representative traditional-production unit found objective function levels close to those found by farm surveys, but discrepancies between model results and the actual farm situations for sheep and goat activities. Model results excluded small-ruminant breeding activities because of the low net offtake at weaning levels assumed in the model. Data that became available after these initial model runs showed a higher net offtake level, and these revised coefficients resulted in optimal LP results very close to those actually found on farms.The model was then used to simulate the response of activities and farm economic performance to ‘good’ and ‘bad’ years defined by ± half standard deviation from mean annual levels of precipitation. Model results indicated much higher variability of farm income in response to weather than that found with changes in levels of technical efficiency of sheep and goat production.     

A logistic analysis of the factors determining the decision of smallholder farmers to intercrop: A case study involving rubber–tea intercropping in Sri Lanka

The factors influencing the decision of smallholder farmers to adopt new farming technologies were studied with reference to rubber–tea intercropping in Sri Lanka. Rubber–tea intercropping has been recommended previously to rubber farmers as a means to improve productivity and income during the early pre-tapping phase of rubber growth. Although crop trials have shown that the two crops are agronomically compatible and potentially produce a combined economic yield superior to the yield of a sole crop grown on the same area of land, there is little evidence of widespread adoption of this practice among smallholder farmers in Sri Lanka. The aim of the study was to determine the major factors that influence the decision to undertake rubber–tea intercropping and to construct a predictive model that describes the likelihood of adoption of intercropping by traditional smallholder rubber growers. A rapid rural appraisal (RRA) was undertaken based on semi-structured interviews of 90 smallholder farmers in the main rubber growing low wet zone of Sri Lanka. Among a number of factors shown to significantly influence the decision to intercrop tea with rubber, three were shown to operate independently, namely level of income, source of income (i.e. solely from own farm or from farm plus additional off-farm enterprises), and availability of land considered suitable for tea cultivation. A statistical model developed through correlation and logistic analysis, which predicts the likelihood of a smallholder adopting intercropping based on these factors, is presented and discussed. The most likely combination of circumstances (82% probability) under which rubber–tea intercropping is practiced is shown to be where the farmer’s income is greater than Rs. 10,000 per month, where the farmer’s income is based solely on own farm enterprises, and where more than 80% of the farmer’s land area was judged to be suitable for tea cultivation. Conversely, 30% of smallholder farmers that chose not to intercrop did possess land suitable for tea cultivation. Qualitative responses to the RRA indicated that limitation of technical knowledge was the main problem subsequently faced by rubber farmers who had adopted rubber–tea intercropping. Results indicate that there is need for both income support through farm subsidies and further agricultural extension services, if rubber–tea intercropping is to be adopted more widely in Sri Lanka. The wider usefulness of the developed logistic model in determining the likelihood of adoption of intercropping by smallholder farmers is discussed.     

Co-evolutionary scenarios of intensification and privatization of resource use in rural communities of south-western Niger

Agricultural production in the semi-arid agro-ecosystems of the Sahel centres on cereal staple crops and pastoralism with increasing crop–livestock integration. Animals mobilize soil fertility through manure production, graze crop by-products, and transfer nutrients from distant pastures to cropped areas. Yet in these systems various interacting factors, i.e. climate variability, poor soil fertility, poverty, and institutional constraints limit the capacity of agriculture to keep pace with the growing needs of an increasing human population.The major trends associated with population growth are (1) increasing area cropped at the expense of rangelands; (2) reduced availability of and access to good quality grazing resources, and (3) seasonal migration of labourers and transhumance of herds. These trends lead to co-evolution of farming systems towards increased privatisation of resource use.This study examines the implications of the development processes where farming systems co-evolve with their surroundings. It explores the impact of integrated management of livestock and crops in rural communities on both the livelihoods of differently endowed farms, and on the agro-ecosystem. Different scenarios explored the co-evolution of three sites situated in Western Niger with their environment. The sites differ in relative area cropped. The scenarios simulate the different future outcomes for varying socio-economic and biophysical criteria with either current or more intensive management.Explorative bio-economic models are used to compare a range of farm, livelihood and ecological indicators, and to reveal social and ecological trade-offs.If current agro-ecosystems and their environments co-evolve towards increased privatisation of grazing resources, then soil fertility is likely to deteriorate on the lands managed by the agro-pastoral groups. Soil fertility may improve on lands managed by the livestock-scarce farmers settled in villages, at the cost of declining farm incomes. The agro-pastoral groups are likely to resort to more distant pastures for feed. The village-based, livestock-endowed farms will resort to feeding on on-farm crop residues. Intensification, though associated with relative decreases in real incomes, will enhance food security in these new systems, except for the poorer settled farmers.     

The nucleus and pilot farm research approach: experiences from The Netherlands

High application levels of fertilisers and agro-chemicals in The Netherlands have provoked increasingly stringent environmental policies. The development and evaluation of these policies have led to a shift in agricultural research. Starting in a tradition of factorial research, a systems-oriented approach was adopted. Building on results of earlier systems-oriented experimental research in the 1980s, an approach was developed where research on experimental farms increasingly became linked to a network of commercial farmers, serving as guinea pigs, applying newly developed fertiliser strategies, but also serving as discussion partners, providing new ideas and critically reviewing research results. This set-up, a systems-oriented experimental farm linked to a series of commercial farms, is referred to here as the NUcleus and Pilot Farm Research Approach. It has become the major research approach towards development of sustainable farming in The Netherlands, and is currently applied in projects oriented at dairy and arable farming. It was developed for arable farming during the 1980s and 1990s, whereas in the early 1990s an experimental farm was established for dairy farming. The present paper discusses the general research approach and background, characteristics and results of projects in dairy and arable farming, and compares them with other approaches. The research approach has important advantages, allowing evaluation of technical, economic and environmental performance under realistic conditions, embedded in a common bio-physical and economic environment, while the link with commercial pilot farms stimulates continuous mutual exchange of information. The major disadvantage, precluding statistical analyses due to lack of replicates and the continuous adjustments of the system, can at least partly be overcome through implementation of an intensive monitoring programme, and combining the research with modelling efforts and additional disciplinary research.     

Perceived environmental uncertainty in Dutch dairy farming: The effect of external farm context on strategic choice

This paper explores the way in which dairy farmers perceive their environment (PE), i.e., the external context of their farm, and the uncertainty (PEU) this poses to them. The environment is defined using the STEP concept (society, technology, economy and politics) and Porter’s five forces model. The relationship between the perception of the external farm environment and the strategy farmers choose for their farm is quantified to gain insight into the effect of the external farm environment on decision-making. Data from a survey of 103 Dutch dairy farmers was analyzed using regression analysis. The results indicate that environmental uncertainty is not related to complexity or dynamism, but to the illiberality (i.e., intolerance, hostility) of the external farm environment. The institutional environment is considered especially illiberal, thus causing high uncertainty. Farmers with high PEU are more likely to choose a diversification strategy, while low perceived uncertainty results in a process-control strategy for the farm. A growth strategy is not affected by perceived environmental uncertainty. The PE and PEU approach is new in agricultural research and shows that the farmer’s view on the external environment is a key issue for decision-making on farms The significant relationship between the perceived uncertainty caused by the external farm environment and farm strategies shows that to get a good understanding of the farm, farming system boundaries should be expanded to incorporate the effect of the external farm environment on decision making. Reduction of uncertainty will enhance decision-making because instead of farming within an uncertain context, risk management practices can be used.