How do resources influence control measures during a simulated outbreak of foot and mouth disease in Australia?

An outbreak of foot and mouth disease (FMD) could seriously impact Australia's livestock sector and economy. As an FMD-free country, an outbreak would trigger a major disease control and eradication program that would include the culling of infected and at risk animals (‘stamping out’), movement restrictions and zoo-sanitary measures. Additional control measures may also include pre-emptive culling or vaccination. However, it is unclear what disease strategy would be most effective under Australian conditions and different resource levels. Using a stochastic simulation model that describes FMD transmission between farms in a livestock dense region of Australia, our results suggest that using current estimates of human resource capacity for surveillance, infected premises operations and vaccination, outbreaks were effectively controlled under a stamping out strategy. However, under more constrained resource allocations, ring vaccination was more likely to achieve eradication faster than stamping out or pre-emptive culling strategies.     

Potential impact of species and livestock density on the epidemic size and effectiveness of control measures for foot-and-mouth disease in Japan

The characteristics of a livestock area, including farm density and animal species, influence the spread of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD). In this study, the impact of livestock area on FMD epidemics was examined using an FMD transmission model. For this simulation, three major livestock areas were selected: the 2010 FMD epidemic area in Japan as the baseline area (BS), a cattle and pig mixed production area (CP) and a cattle production area (C). Simulation results demonstrated that under the 24-hr culling policy, only 12% of epidemics among 1,000 simulations were abated within 100 days in the CP area, whereas 90% of the epidemics ceased in the BS area. In the C area, all epidemics were successfully contained within 100 days. Evaluation of additional control measures in the CP area showed that the 0.5-km pre-emptive culling, even when only targeting pig farms, raised the potential for successful containment to 94%. A 10-km vaccination on day 7 or 14 after initial detection was also effective in halting the epidemics (80%), but accompanied a large number of culled or vaccinated farms. The combined strategy of 10-km vaccination and 0.5-km pre-emptive culling targeting pig farms succeeded in containing all epidemics within 100 days. The present study suggests the importance of preparedness for the 24-hr culling policy and additional control measures when an FMD outbreak occurs in a densely populated area. Considering the characteristics of the livestock area is important in planning FMD control strategies.     

Results of epidemic simulation modeling to evaluate strategies to control an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease

OBJECTIVE: To assess estimated effectiveness of control and eradication procedures for foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in a region of California. SAMPLE POPULATION: 2,238 herds and 5 sale yards in Fresno, Kings, andTulare counties of California. PROCEDURE: A spatial stochastic model was used to simulate hypothetical epidemics of FMD for specified control scenarios that included a baseline eradication strategy mandated by USDA and supplemental control strategies of slaughter or vaccination of all animals within a specified distance of infected herds, slaughter of only high-risk animals identified by use of a model simulation, and expansion of infected and surveillance zones. RESULTS: Median number of herds affected varied from 1 to 385 (17% of all herds), depending on type of index herd and delay in diagnosis of FMD. Percentage of herds infected decreased from that of the baseline eradication strategy by expanding the designated infected area from 10 to 20 km (48%), vaccinating within a 50-km radius of an infected herd (41%), slaughtering the 10 highest-risk herds for each infected herd (39%), and slaughtering all animals within 5 km of an infected herd (24%). CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Results for the model provided a means of assessing the relative merits of potential strategies for control and eradication of FMD should it enter the US livestock population. For the study region, preemptive slaughter of highest-risk herds and vaccination of all animals within a specified distance of an infected herd consistently decreased size and duration of an epidemic, compared with the baseline eradication strategy.     

The foot-and-mouth disease epidemic in The Netherlands in 2001

An outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in Great Britain was reported on 21 February 2001, followed by an outbreak of FMD in The Netherlands a month later. This Dutch index outbreak occurred on a mixed, veal-calf/dairy-goat farm in Oene, in the central part of The Netherlands. The most-likely route of infection was the import of Irish veal-calves to this Dutch herd via an FMD-contaminated staging point in France. With hindsight, more herds seemed to be infected by the time the index outbreak was confirmed. The regular EU control measures were implemented, in combination with pre-emptive culling of herds within 1km of each outbreak. Nevertheless, more outbreaks of FMD occurred. Most of the virus infections on those farms were "neighborhood infections". Because the situation seemed out of control locally and the destruction capacity became insufficient, it was decided to implement an emergency vaccination strategy for all biungulates in a large area around Oene to stop further spread of the virus. All susceptible animals on approximately 1800 farms in this area were vaccinated. All farms subsequently were depopulated, starting from 2 weeks after vaccination. In total, 26 outbreaks were detected (the last outbreak on 22 April 2001). In total, approximately 260,000 animals were killed.     

Evaluation of the benefit of emergency vaccination in a foot-and-mouth disease free country with low livestock density

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is highly contagious and one of the most economically devastating diseases of cloven-hoofed animals. Scientific-based preparedness about how to best control the disease in a previously FMD-free country is therefore essential for veterinary services. The present study used a spatial, stochastic epidemic simulation model to compare the effectiveness of emergency vaccination with conventional (non-vaccination) control measures in Switzerland, a low-livestock density country. Model results revealed that emergency vaccination with a radius of 3 km or 10 km around infected premises (IP) did not significantly reduce either the cumulative herd incidence or epidemic duration if started in a small epidemic situation where the number of IPs is still low. However, in a situation where the epidemic has become extensive, both the cumulative herd incidence and epidemic duration are reduced significantly if vaccination were implemented with a radius of 10 km around IPs. The effect of different levels of conventional strategy measures was also explored for the non-vaccination strategy. It was found that a lower compliance level of farmers for movement restrictions and delayed culling of IPs significantly increased both the cumulative IP incidence and epidemic duration. Contingency management should therefore focus mainly on improving conventional strategies, by increasing disease awareness and communication with stakeholders and preparedness of culling teams in countries with a livestock structure similar to Switzerland; however, emergency vaccination should be considered if there are reasons to believe that the epidemic may become extensive, such as when disease detection has been delayed and many IPs are discovered at the beginning of the epidemic.     

Consideration of different outbreak conditions in the evaluation of preventive culling and emergency vaccination to control foot and mouth disease epidemics

In recent foot and mouth disease outbreaks, many healthy animals have been culled to prevent disease transmission. Emergency vaccination is discussed as an alternative to culling of unaffected animals. A spatial and temporal Monte–Carlo simulation model was used to compare preventive culling and emergency vaccination. Different outbreaks are described using additional influence factors such as airborne spread, farm density, type of index-case farm and delay until establishment of the control strategies. The fewest farms were infected establishing a combined strategy including a 1 km preventive culling and 1–10 km emergency vaccination zone around each outbreak farm. Taking the number of culled and vaccinated farms into account, vaccination around the first diagnosed farm combined with the baseline strategy (culling of outbreak farms, protection and surveillance zone, contact tracing) is to be preferred. In the present study, emergency vaccination was an effective control strategy especially in densely populated regions.     

Classical swine fever outbreak containment using antiviral supplementation: a potential alternative to emergency vaccination and stamping-out

Classical swine fever (CSF) outbreaks may result in huge economic losses to countries with densely populated pig areas (DPLAs). The EU minimum control measures require depopulation of infected farms, movement restrictions, zoning and surveillance (EU Minimum strategy). Emergency vaccination is authorised for DPLAs although the EU Minimum strategy plus culling in a 1-km ring around infected premises is preferred. Nonetheless, vaccination in a 2-km ring has been found equally effective as 1-km ring culling using stochastic modelling. Alternatives control measures (e.g. antiviral agents, in particular small molecule inhibitors of the CSFV replication) are being explored. Hence, the present study was set up to simulate inter-herd CSFV spread when antiviral molecules are supplemented to pig feed in a 1-km ring around infected farms. The effectiveness of the antiviral strategy for containing CSF outbreaks was compared to six other control scenarios including the EU Minimum strategy, the EU preferred policy for DPLAs and the use of 2-km ring vaccination. The InterSpread Plus model was adapted to the 2006 Belgian pig population and outbreak simulations were performed with a fast spreading CSFV strain entering a DPLA in Belgium. Four out of the seven control strategies resulted in outbreaks that were controlled by the end of the simulation period (i.e. 365 days). The distributions of the number of infected herds and the duration of the predicted outbreaks for these four control strategies were not different. This is the first report investigating CSF outbreak containment using antiviral molecules. Although antiviral supplementation was not found to perform any better than some other conventional strategies, such as pre-emptive culling and emergency vaccination, it might be worthwhile considering it further as additional tool in a response to CSF outbreaks.     

Benefit-cost analysis of vaccination and preemptive slaughter as a means of eradicating foot-and-mouth disease

OBJECTIVE: To assess relative costs and benefits of vaccination and preemptive herd slaughter to control transmission of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) virus (FMDV). SAMPLE POPULATION: 2,238 herds and 5 sale yards located in Fresno, Kings, and Tulare counties of California. PROCEDURE: Direct costs associated with indemnity, slaughter, cleaning and disinfecting livestock premises, and vaccination were compared for various eradication strategies. Additional cost, total program cost, net benefit, and benefit-cost value (B/C) for each supplemental strategy were estimated, based in part on results of published model simulations for FMD. Sensitivity analyses were conducted. RESULTS: Mean herd indemnity payments were estimated to be dollars 2.6 million and dollars 110,359 for dairy and nondairy herds, respectively. Cost to clean and disinfect livestock premises ranged from dollars 18,062 to dollars 60,205. Mean vaccination cost was dollars 2,960/herd. Total eradication cost ranged from dollars 61 million to dollars 551 million. All supplemental strategies involving use of vaccination were economically efficient (B/C range, 5.0 to 10.1) and feasible, whereas supplemental strategies involving use of slaughter programs were not economically efficient (B-C, 0.05 to 0.8) or feasible. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Vaccination with a highly efficacious vaccine may be a cost-effective strategy for control of FMD if vaccinated animals are not subsequently slaughtered and there is no future adverse economic impact, such as trade restrictions. Although less preferable than the baseline eradication program, selective slaughter of highest-risk herds was preferable to other preemptive slaughter strategies. However, indirect costs can be expected to contribute substantially more than direct costs to the total cost of eradication programs.     

A dynamic model for cost-benefit analyses of foot-and-mouth disease control strategies

An integrated model for the personal computer is presented, in which a variety of preventive and control strategies with respect to foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in Dutch cattle and pig herds were examined economically. Special attention is given to the way in which losses due to export bans are determined. Export bans would occur as a result of an outbreak of FMD. Annual costs for the Netherlands would be reduced considerably if the yearly vaccinations were stopped. This conclusion holds even if more pessimistic values are used for some major uncertain input factors. The PC model is flexible with regard to input values, making it possible to fit different conditions.     

Evaluation of post-farm-gate passive surveillance in swine for the detection of foot and mouth disease in Australia

Pigs are considered high risk for the introduction and spread of foot and mouth disease (FMD) in Australia. One of the most likely pathways of introduction of FMD into Australia would be through the illegal importation of FMD-contaminated meat, which is then fed to feral or domestic pigs. Locations where animals from different origins are commingled, such as livestock markets and abattoirs, pose a risk for disease spread. Early detection of exotic diseases at these locations is crucial in limiting the spread of an outbreak. The aims of this study were to evaluate the likelihood of exotic disease detection with current passive disease surveillance activities for pigs at saleyards and abattoirs in eastern Australia, and make recommendations for improving surveillance. Sensitivity (Se) of the current post-farm-gate passive surveillance for detection of exotic diseases was estimated using the scenario tree modelling methodology (Martin et al., 2007a). Four surveillance system components were identified: (i) domestic saleyard, (ii) export saleyard, (iii) domestic abattoir, and (iv) export abattoir. Pig farms were classified according to herd size (Small vs. Large) and subsequently into two risk categories depending on the probability of swill feeding (Swill feeding vs. Not swill feeding). A scenario tree representing the pathways by which infected animals could be detected was developed and the Se of detection in each surveillance system component was estimated. Industry statistics, information on previous exotic disease outbreaks, and interviews with pig producers were used to estimate herd category proportions and the relative risk of swill feeding. Quantitative estimates for probabilities of detection were sourced from State legislation and policies, stakeholder consultation and observational studies at saleyards and abattoirs. Results of a FMD case study showed a Se of detection at a representative location for each surveillance system component during a 2-week period of 0.19 at domestic saleyards, 0.40 at export saleyards, 0.32 at domestic abattoirs and, 0.53 at export abattoirs. This output assumed the country was infected with herd and unit design prevalences of 1% and 30%, respectively. Improving disease awareness of saleyard and abattoir stockmen, increasing the presence of inspectors at these venues and identifying those herds posing a higher risk for FMD introduction, could improve the capacity of the country for early detection of emerging animal diseases.     

Risk based culling for highly infectious diseases of livestock

ABSTRACT: The control of highly infectious diseases of livestock such as classical swine fever, foot-and-mouth disease, and avian influenza is fraught with ethical, economic, and public health dilemmas. Attempts to control outbreaks of these pathogens rely on massive culling of infected farms, and farms deemed to be at risk of infection. Conventional approaches usually involve the preventive culling of all farms within a certain radius of an infected farm. Here we propose a novel culling strategy that is based on the idea that farms that have the highest expected number of secondary infections should be culled first. We show that, in comparison with conventional approaches (ring culling), our new method of risk based culling can reduce the total number of farms that need to be culled, the number of culled infected farms (and thus the expected number of human infections in case of a zoonosis), and the duration of the epidemic. Our novel risk based culling strategy requires three pieces of information, viz. the location of all farms in the area at risk, the moments when infected farms are detected, and an estimate of the distance-dependent probability of transmission.     

A state-transition model to stimulate the economics of bovine virus diarrhoea control

A state-transition model was developed to examine the control of bovine virus diarrhoea (BVD) virus (BVDV) infections epidemiologically and economically at the farm level, using a computer spreadsheet program. The model offers the possibility of comparing and evaluating the alternatives ‘no intervention’ and ‘culling carriers’. All input variables can easily be modified to suit different conditions and areas, making it a flexible tool for policy making and decision support. Results of calculations with the most likely input values for Dutch conditions showed that culling the carriers which were persistently infected after an outbreak of BVD was economically unattractive (especially if there was any risk of reinfection). Further research is desired (1) to model the losses due to immunosuppression caused by BVDV infection, and (2) to predict more precisely the spread of BVDV after culling the carriers.     

Comparison of different control strategies for foot-and-mouth disease: a study of the epidemics in Canada in 1951/52, Hampshire in 1967 and Northumberland in 1966

The measures used to control the epidemics of foot-and-mouth disease in Canada in 1951/52 (29 outbreaks) were compared with those used in the epidemic in Hampshire in 1967 (29 outbreaks). In both epidemics the disease spread more from premises where the disease was reported late and the imposition of quarantine or restrictions on infected premises was delayed. In Hampshire, area restrictions were imposed, susceptible livestock on infected premises and on premises in direct contact were slaughtered, and contacts were traced. In Canada, the initial diagnosis was vesicular stomatitis, no area restrictions were imposed, no tracing was carried out and the animals on infected premises were allowed to recover. However, apart from the disease's spread through infected meat and by unknown or airborne routes, it did not spread from infected premises once quarantine was imposed, partly owing to the low population density of livestock in the area. The effects of the slaughter of infected premises and direct contacts in the Fareham area of Hampshire in 1967 and in the Chathill area of Northumberland in 1966 were compared with what might have happened if, in addition, culling on contiguous premises or culling on premises within 3 km or emergency vaccination had been put into effect. The slaughter of cattle, sheep, goats and pigs on premises within 3 km two days after confirmation of the first outbreak would have resulted in fewer outbreaks and a shorter period to complete slaughter, but more animals would have been slaughtered. In the Chathill area, the slaughter of sheep, goats and pigs only on premises within 3 km two days after confirmation of the first outbreak would not have resulted in fewer outbreaks and more animals would have been slaughtered. Fewer premises and animals would have been slaughtered by a contiguous cull than by a 3 km cull but more than by the slaughter of infected premises and direct contacts. Emergency vaccination within 3 km, providing protection at four days (but not to animals already infected before the development of immunity), would have resulted in the fewest animals being slaughtered and could have reduced the number of outbreaks in the Fareham area by one and in the Chathill area by two or three. All the procedures would have had a greater effect the sooner they were introduced. However, with many foci of infection, priorities for action would have had to have been established. Earlier tracing of the last outbreak in the Fareham area could have shortened the Hampshire epidemic. Surveillance of a farm identified as at risk through animal movements and by the use of an airborne-prediction model could have eliminated the source of further outbreaks in the Chathill area.     

Foot and mouth disease in Tanzania: an overview of its national status

The presence of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in Tanzania is a major obstacle to the development of the national livestock industry because of its adverse effects on livestock production and on trade of animals and animal products into lucrative export markets. FMD is endemic in Tanzania, the affected area is extensive and lack of funding makes eradication unrealistic. Uncontrolled livestock movements, the presence of large populations of wildlife in regular contacts with livestock, and the general lack of enthusiasm for FMD control among the key stakeholders, are some of the factors favouring the persistence of FMD in Tanzania. This review examines the epidemiology, dynamics and socio-economic significance of FMD in the national herd. Various control options available in Tanzanian context are also explored.     

Procedures for preventing the transmission of foot-and-mouth disease virus to pigs and sheep by personnel in contact with infected pigs

The most effective method of containing an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is by the culling of livestock. However, qualified people must diagnose the disease before the culling can begin, and they must avoid susceptible animals after having been in contact with infected premises, to prevent them from transmitting the virus. To test the effectiveness of biosecurity procedures in preventing the transmission of FMD virus (O/UK/35/2001) investigators contacted and sampled pigs inoculated with FMD virus for approximately 45 minutes and then contacted and sampled sentinel pigs and sheep after either using no biosecurity procedures, or washing their hands and donning clean outerwear, or showering and donning clean outerwear. The virus was detected in the nasal secretions of one investigator immediately after the postmortem investigation of the inoculated pigs but was not detected in samples collected between approximately 12 and 84 hours later. After the contaminated personnel had showered and changed into clean outerwear they did not transmit the strain of FMD virus to susceptible pigs and sheep.     

Control of a foot-and-mouth disease epidemic in Argentina

A major epidemic of foot-and-mouth disease affected Argentina during 2001. The epidemic was controlled by mass-vaccination of the national herd and movement restrictions. The median herd disease reproduction ratio (R_H) decreased significantly from 2.4 (before the epidemic was officially recognized) to 1.2 during the mass-vaccination campaign and <1 following the mass-vaccination campaign. The largest distance between two outbreaks was similar during (1905 km) and after (1890 km) the mass-vaccination. However, after mass-vaccination was completed, the proportion of herd outbreaks clustered decreased from 70.4% to 66.8%, respectively. Although a combination of vaccination and livestock-movement restrictions was effective in controlling the epidemic, 112 herd outbreaks occurred up to 6 months after the end of the mass-vaccination campaign. Mass-vaccination and movement restrictions might be an effective strategy to control FMD; however, the time taken to end large, national epidemics might be >1 year.     

On-farm eradication of foot-and-mouth disease as an alternative to mass culling

A control and eradication programme for foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) was initiated on a 1500-sow farm in Asia as an alternative to mass culling. The programme was based on mass vaccination and exposure to FMD virus to ensure the development of effective immunity throughout the population. Pigs are not long-term carriers of FMD virus and it should be eliminated by 21 days after infection. Entry of breeding stock was temporarily halted and the sow herd was partially depopulated in order to create a buffer between the infected and uninfected animals. After exposure to the virus and partial depopulation, the virus was eliminated through unidirectional pig flow and strict all-in/all-out procedures, and by thorough cleaning and disinfection of the buildings. Twelve months after the initial outbreak, the eradication plan was completed and successful. In parallel with the eradication programme, a small-scale isolated weaning project was carried out with the sow population that was moved out of the affected farm; 708 piglets were weaned to a separate facility 300 m away. No clinical signs of FMD were observed and the piglets remained serologically negative.     

Direct production losses and treatment costs from bovine viral diarrhoea virus,bovine leukosis virus,Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis,and Neospora caninum

Our purpose was to determine direct production losses (milk loss, premature voluntary culling and reduced slaughter value, mortaliy loss, and abortion and reproductive loss) and treatmetn costs (veterinary services, medication cost, and extra farm labour cost) due to four infectious diseases in the maritime provinces of Canada: bovine viral diarrhoea (BVD), enzootic bovine leukosis (EBL), Johne's Disease (JD), and neosporosis. We used a partial-budget model, and incorporated risk and sensitivity analyses to identify the effects of uncertainty on costs. Total annual costs for an average, infected, 50 cow herd were: JD$ 2472; BVD$ 2421; neosporosis $ 2304; EBL$ 806. The stochastic nature of the proportion of infected herds and prevalence of infection within a herd were used to estimate probability distributions for these ex post costs. For all diseases, these distributions were right skewed. A sensitivity analysis showed the largest effect on costs was due to milk yield effects. For example, changing milk production loss from 0 to 5% for BVD increased the costs for the disease by 266%.     

Economic evaluation of Johne's disease control programs implemented on six Michigan dairy farms

Johne's disease (JD) is an incurable, chronic infectious disease prevalent in dairy herds throughout the US and the world. The substantial economic losses caused by JD have been well documented. However, information on the costs of controlling the disease is limited, yet necessary, if producers are to make sound decisions regarding JD management. The purpose of this paper is to describe a method for evaluating the cost-effectiveness of management changes to control JD on infected dairy farms. A 5-year longitudinal study of six dairy herds infected with JD was performed. Each herd implemented a JD control program upon study enrollment. Prevalence of JD within each herd was monitored with annual testing of all adult cows using fecal culture and/or serum ELISA. Individual cow production and culling information was collected to estimate the annual economic losses caused by JD. An economic questionnaire was developed and administered to each herd annually to estimate costs directly attributable to the JD control program. Based on the costs of the control program, and using the losses to estimate the potential benefits of the control program, the net present value (NPV) of the control program was calculated for each herd during the study and projected into the future for a total of 20 years. The NPV was calculated for four different scenarios: (1) assuming a linear decline in losses beyond the observed period of the study with JD eradication by year 20 of the control program; (2) assuming losses and JD prevalence remain constant at the rate equal to that of the last observed year while continuing the control program; (3) assuming linear increase in losses at rate equal to that in scenario 1 with no control program; and (4) assuming losses remain constant at same level as the beginning of the study with no control plan implemented. The NPV varied greatly across the herds. For scenario 1, only three herds had a positive NPV; and only two herds had a positive NPV under scenario two. In the absence of a control program, the NPV's were always negative. The costs of the JD control programs implemented on these herds averaged $30/cow/year with a median of $24/cow/year. The annual losses due to JD averaged $79/cow/year with a median of $66/cow/year. Investing in a JD control program can be cost-effective.     

Financial analysis of various strategies for the control of Neospora caninum in dairy cattle in Switzerland

The present study was conducted to estimate the direct losses due to Neospora caninum in Swiss dairy cattle and to assess the costs and benefits of different potential control strategies. A Monte Carlo simulation spreadsheet module was developed to estimate the direct costs caused by N. caninum, with and without control strategies, and to estimate the costs of these control strategies in a financial analysis. The control strategies considered were “testing and culling of seropositive female cattle”, “discontinued breeding with offspring from seropositive cows”, “chemotherapeutical treatment of female offspring” and “vaccination of all female cattle”. Each parameter in the module that was considered to be uncertain, was described using probability distributions. The simulations were run with 20,000 iterations over a time period of 25 years.

The median annual losses due to N. caninum in the Swiss dairy cow population were estimated to be € 9.7 million. All control strategies that required yearly serological testing of all cattle in the population produced high costs and thus were not financially profitable. Among the other control strategies, two showed benefit–cost ratios (BCR) >1 and positive net present values (NPV): “Discontinued breeding with offspring from seropositive cows” (BCR = 1.29, NPV = € 25 million) and “chemotherapeutical treatment of all female offspring” (BCR = 2.95, NPV = € 59 million). In economic terms, the best control strategy currently available would therefore be “discontinued breeding with offspring from seropositive cows”.