1961-2013年新疆雪雨比变化

基于中国国家气象信息中心发布的1961-2013年全国0.5°×0.5°逐日降水量和逐日平均气温数据集以及气象站点日降水量和气温实测资料,评估了该套格点降水资料在新疆地区的可信度,并利用格点降水资料研究了新疆地区降雪量、降雨量以及雪雨比的时空变化和突变信息.结果表明:内插到气象站点的格点降水数据和气象站点实测降水数据之间的偏差普遍较小,偏差在0.2 ～1.0 mm的站点个数占总站点数的72.55％,在绝大多数区域二者之间的相关系数均在0.80以上;1961-2013年,新疆降雪量呈微弱的增加趋势,增加幅度为0.11 mm·a-1,但没有通过0.05的显著性水平检验.降雨量以0.63 mm·a-1的速率呈明显的增加趋势(P ＜0.000 1),突变出现在1992年左右.雪雨比呈下降趋势,幅度为0.01 a-1 (P ＜0.05),突变出现在1991年左右;降雪量、降雨量及雪雨比表现出一定的空间分布差异,降雪量和降雨量在全区普遍呈增加趋势,而雪雨比在天山山地以北呈增加趋势,在天山山地以及天山山地以南主要呈减少趋势.在新疆冰川分布区域,降雪量倾向率在新疆北部呈增加趋势,而在新疆东南部呈减少趋势;降雨量倾向率呈增加趋势,且新疆东南部降雨量倾向率大于北部;雪雨比倾向率呈现出与降雪量倾向率相似的变化趋势.     

Climate change in the Tianshan and northern Kunlun Mountains based on GCM simulation ensemble with Bayesian model averaging

Climate change in mountainous regions has significant impacts on hydrological and ecological systems. This research studied the future temperature, precipitation and snowfall in the 21~(st) century for the Tianshan and northern Kunlun Mountains(TKM) based on the general circulation model(GCM) simulation ensemble from the coupled model intercomparison project phase 5(CMIP5) under the representative concentration pathway(RCP) lower emission scenario RCP4.5 and higher emission scenario RCP8.5 using the Bayesian model averaging(BMA) technique. Results show that(1) BMA significantly outperformed the simple ensemble analysis and BMA mean matches all the three observed climate variables;(2) at the end of the 21~(st) century(2070–2099) under RCP8.5, compared to the control period(1976–2005), annual mean temperature and mean annual precipitation will rise considerably by 4.8°C and 5.2%, respectively, while mean annual snowfall will dramatically decrease by 26.5%;(3) precipitation will increase in the northern Tianshan region while decrease in the Amu Darya Basin. Snowfall will significantly decrease in the western TKM. Mean annual snowfall fraction will also decrease from 0.56 of 1976–2005 to 0.42 of 2070–2099 under RCP8.5; and(4) snowfall shows a high sensitivity to temperature in autumn and spring while a low sensitivity in winter, with the highest sensitivity values occurring at the edge areas of TKM. The projections mean that flood risk will increase and solid water storage will decrease.     

Adaptability of machine learning methods and hydrological models to discharge simulations in datasparse glaciated watersheds

The accurate simulation and prediction of runoff in alpine glaciated watersheds is of increasing importance for the comprehensive management and utilization of water resources. In this study, long shortterm memory(LSTM), a state-of-the-art artificial neural network algorithm, is applied to simulate the daily discharge of two data-sparse glaciated watersheds in the Tianshan Mountains in Central Asia. Two other classic machine learning methods, namely extreme gradient boosting(XGBoost) and support vector regression(SVR), along with a distributed hydrological model(Soil and Water Assessment Tool(SWAT) and an extended SWAT model(SWAT_Glacier) are also employed for comparison. This paper aims to provide an efficient and reliable method for simulating discharge in glaciated alpine regions that have insufficient observed meteorological data. The two typical basins in this study are the main tributaries(the Kumaric and Toxkan rivers) of the Aksu River in the south Tianshan Mountains, which are dominated by snow and glacier meltwater and precipitation. Our comparative analysis indicates that simulations from the LSTM shows the best agreement with the observations. The performance metrics Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient(NS) and correlation coefficient(R~2) of LSTM are higher than 0.90 in both the training and testing periods in the Kumaric River Basin, and NS and R~2 are also higher than 0.70 in the Toxkan River Basin. Compared to classic machine learning algorithms, LSTM shows significant advantages over most evaluating indices. XGBoost also has high NS value in the training period, but is prone to overfitting the discharge. Compared with the widely used hydrological models, LSTM has advantages in predicting accuracy, despite having fewer data inputs. Moreover, LSTM only requires meteorological data rather than physical characteristics of underlying data. As an extension of SWAT, the SWAT_Glacier model shows good adaptability in discharge simulation, outperforming the original SWAT model, but at the cost of increasing the complexity of the model. Compared with the oftentimes complex semi-distributed physical hydrological models, the LSTM method not only eliminates the tedious calibration process of hydrological parameters, but also significantly reduces the calculation time and costs. Overall, LSTM shows immense promise in dealing with scarce meteorological data in glaciated catchments.     

西天山小流域动态融雪过程及其与气温的关系

利用西天山阿热都拜小流域积雪、融雪和气象观测场2017-2018年每30 min的同步降雪、融雪和气温观测数据,对全年积雪期较短时间尺度上的融雪动态过程及其与气温的关系进行了对比分析。结果表明:山区降雪表现为"先升后降"的总体特征。稳定积雪期集中在2017年12月27日至2018年3月8日,最大降雪速率高达9. 6mm·h^-1(雪水当量值,转化成新鲜雪深值为96. 5 mm·h^-1)。山区融雪过程的变化规律与降雪变化正好相反,呈现出"先降后升"的变化特征。融雪变化分为3个阶段,第一阶段:随着气温的下降,融雪速率下降,融雪速率由3. 24 mm·h^-1逐渐下降至0 mm·h^-1;第二阶段:当气温低于融雪的临界温度(-13. 5-12. 0℃)时,不产生融雪;第三阶段:随着气温的回升,融雪速率从0 mm·h^-1逐渐上升至3. 87 mm·h^-1。在全年融雪与气温的大数据关系中,融雪量与气温的相关性系数不是很显著,其相关性系数为0. 708;在无降水干扰下,7 d平均同步融雪量与气温的相关性系数处于显著水平,Pearson相关性系数为0. 907,R^2=0. 823;当进一步考虑滞后效应后,融雪量与气温的相关性系数提升至极显著的线性关系,相关性系数高达0. 943,R^2=0. 889,均通过了0. 01显著性水平的双尾检验。在西天山阿热都拜小流域融雪量的变化过程与气温的变化过程有着密切的相关性。这种融雪量对气温变化的响应关系及其分析方法,对于提高应对未来气候变化的能力和预防洪灾及水资源管理具有一定的参考价值。     

Glacier mass balance in High Mountain Asia inferred from a GRACE release-6 gravity solution for the period 2002–2016

We provide estimates of glacier mass changes in the High Mountain Asia (HMA) area from April2002 to August 2016 by employing a new version of gravity solutions of the Gravity Recovery and ClimateExperiment (GRACE) twin-satellite mission. We find a total mass loss trend of the HMA glaciers at a rateof –22.17 (±1.96) Gt/a. The largest mass loss rates of –7.02 (±0.94) and –6.73 (±0.78) Gt/a are found forthe glaciers in Nyainqentanglha Mountains and Eastern Himalayas, respectively. Although most glaciers inthe HMA area show a mass loss, we find a small glacier mass gain of 1.19 (±0.55) and 0.77 (±0.37) Gt/a inKarakoram Mountains and Western Kunlun Mountains, respectively. There is also a nearly zero massbalance in Pamirs. Our estimates of glacier mass change trends confirm previous results from the analysisof altimetry data of the ICESat (ICE, Cloud and Land Elevation Satellite) and ASTER (AdvancedSpaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer) DEM (Digital Elevation Model) satellites inmost of the selected glacier areas. However, they largely differ to previous GRACE-based studies which weattribute to our different post-processing techniques of the newer GRACE data. In addition, we explicitlyshow regional mass change features for both the interannual glacier mass changes and the 14-a averagedseasonal glacier mass changes. These changes can be explained in parts by total net precipitation (netsnowfall and net rainfall) and net snowfall, but mostly by total net radiation energy when compared to datafrom the ERA5-Land meteorological reanalysis. Moreover, nearly all the non-trend interannual masschanges and most seasonal mass changes can be explained by the total net radiation energy data. The massloss trends could be partly related to a heat effect due to increased net rainfall in Tianshan Mountains, QilianMountains, Nyainqentanglha Mountains and Eastern Himalayas. Our new results for the glacier mass changein this study could help improve the understanding of glacier variation in the HMA area and contribute tothe study of global change. They could also serve the utilization of water resources there and in neighboringareas.     

天山山区及周边地区水汽含量的计算与特征分析

利用1976-2009年天山山区周边伊宁、库车和乌鲁木齐3个探空站实测资料,计算逐月平均水汽含量,并建立了与地面水汽压的关系式;利用这个关系式计算了天山山区及周边地区1961-2009年44个站水汽含量,分析了水汽的时空分布特征及其与降水量的关系。结果表明：①天山山区及周边地区水汽含量有3个高值区,主要分布在天山北麓的河谷平原地带和吐鲁番盆地,水汽含量在12~21 mm;南天山及东部的阿克苏地区、库尔勒地区和东天山南部的哈密地区是水汽含量的次高值区,水汽含量在5~13 mm;而中天山和东天山是水汽的低值中心,水汽含量在4~8 mm。② 水汽含量的月际变化呈单峰型,夏季最大,冬季最小,季节变化非常明显;其中2-7月为增长期,3月增长率最大,7月最小,增长率分别为65.8%和17.6%,而8月到次年1月为递减期,12月减少率最大,8月最小,分别为38.5%和7.8%。 天山山区内部月均水汽（7.83 mm）低于全区平均水平(10.51 mm),其中西天山月均和夏季水汽含量均最高,分别为9.88 mm和18.94 mm。③ 49 a间水汽含量年代际变化较小,1986年以后变化波动大且上升趋势明显。④ 水汽和降水量并不具有很好的对应关系,而呈现区域差异。
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Sensitivity of runoff to climatic variability in the northern and southern slopes of the Middle Tianshan Mountains,China

Temperature and precipitation play an important role in the distribution of intra-annual runoff by influencing the timing and contribution of different water sources.In the northern and southern slopes of the Middle Tianshan Mountains in China,the water sources of rivers are similar;however,the proportion and dominance of water sources contributing to runoff are different.Using the Manas River watershed in the northern slope and the Kaidu River watershed in the southern slope of the Middle Tianshan Mountains as case studies,we investigated the changes in annual runoff under climate change.A modified hydrological model was used to simulate runoff in the Kaidu River and Manas River watersheds.The results indicated that runoff was sensitive to precipitation variation in the southern slope and to temperature variation in the northern slope of the Middle Tianshan Mountains.Variations in temperature and precipitation substantially influence annual and seasonal runoff.An increase in temperature did not influence the volume of spring runoff;but it resulted in earlier spring peaks with higher levels of peak flow.Damages caused by spring peak flow from both slopes of the Middle Tianshan Mountains should be given more attention in future studies.     

新疆阿勒泰地区冬季日降雪特性指标变化分析

基于新疆阿勒泰地区7个观测站1961-2011年冬季逐日降雪量资料,定义了日降雪特性指标:3个级别的降雪频率及贡献率,运用线性趋势、Cubic函数、Morlet小波变换、R/S分析等方法,研究该区冬季日降雪特性指标的气候变化特征。结果表明：阿勒泰地区及各站冬季降雪量与日降雪特性指标均呈显著正相关;日降雪特性指标、冬季降雪量都有明显的年代际变化特征,长期变化趋势均呈显著的线性增多趋势,小雪频率及贡献率最大;小雪频率是大到暴雪频率的近20倍;各站阿勒泰站中雪和大到暴雪频率及贡献率、富蕴站和青河站大到暴雪频率及贡献率、其他站日降雪特性指标对冬季降雪量的影响均显著。Cubic函数拟合表明,小雪频率、贡献率在20世纪90年代中后期发生了由多到少的转型;中雪、大到暴雪频率及其贡献率基本呈单调上升趋势;各站大到暴雪频率、贡献率与全区的基本一致。阿勒泰地区冬季大到暴雪频率及贡献率的变化是造成该地区冬季降雪量发生变化的内在因素;福海站是小雪频率及贡献率变化,其他站是大到暴雪频率及贡献率变化是造成冬季降雪量变化的内在因素。Morlet小波分析表明,日降雪特性指标存在显著的年代际和年际周期变化。R/S分析表明,未来该地区日降雪特性指标呈逐渐减少趋势,尤其是中雪频率和贡献率。     

近36年天山山区潜在蒸散量变化特征及其与南、北疆的比较

在使用联合国粮农组织(FAO)推荐的Penman-Monteith公式计算出新疆各地1971-2006年潜在蒸散量的基础上,采取线性回归、最大熵谱、Mann-Kendall检测、滑动t检验和Yamamoto检验以及自然正交分解(EOF)等方法,对近36年新疆天山山区和南、北疆潜在蒸散量的变化特征及其气候成因进行对比分析.结果表明:①天山山区年潜在蒸散量的总体变化趋势与南、北疆相似,均为递减趋势,但其线性递减速率和蒸散量的多年平均值较南、北疆小,年际、年代际变化较南、北疆稳定;②天山山区潜在蒸散量的周期性变化与北疆一致,均具有4.5年的显著周期;③天山山区的潜在蒸散量于1991年发生了突变性的减小,天山山区的突变点分别较南、北疆滞后3年和5年;④天山山区和南、北疆年潜在蒸散量的主要空间分布特征均是同向变化,而反向性变化以南疆最大,天山山区居中,北疆最小;⑤新疆各区域气温均有较明显的上升趋势,但由于日照时数和年平均风速减少(小)r,降水量和空气相对湿度增多(大),受其综合影响,天山山区和南、北疆潜在蒸散量总体呈减少趋势.     

天山云杉雪盖面积估算树冠截留雪水当量实验分析

雪水当量是一个能直观反映出积雪水资源量的重要指标,准确而全面地获取天山云杉树冠截留雪水当量信息,对于提高天山水资源量计算精度方面具有重要意义。本文以天山云杉树苗为研究对象,通过模拟降雪,进行降雪截留实验研究。利用数码照相机获取云杉的雪盖面积、高精度天平称量树冠上截留的雪水质量,进而建立起云杉树苗雪盖面积和雪水当量之间的关系。实验结果表明:多株云杉树苗多次模拟降雪,树冠截留的雪水当量和垂直朝下数字摄影获得的雪盖面积之间拟合曲线趋于一致,且拟合回归方程满足y=21.235χ^2-1.457χ(R^2=0.992 5);通过云杉多次模拟降雪实验,构建云杉雪盖面积与树冠截留的雪水当量模型,提出一套利用雪盖面积较为准确估算树冠截留雪水当量的科学方法,为天山云杉树冠截留降雪及其雪水当量提供高精度估算模型。     

新疆天山极端干湿事件时空演变特征

基于新疆天山26个气象站1960—2017年的气象资料,采用FAO Penman-Monteith模型计算了各气象站月地表湿润指数,标准化后统计极端干湿事件频率.运用线性趋势分析法、反距离加权法探究了极端干湿事件频率的时空演变特征,并采用相关分析、偏相关分析及交叉小波分析分别探讨了气象因子和大气环流对极端干湿事件变化的...     

Monitoring and analysis of snow cover change in an alpine mountainous area in the Tianshan Mountains,China

Estimating the snow cover change in alpine mountainous areas(in which meteorological stations are typically lacking) is crucial for managing local water resources and constitutes the first step in evaluating the contribution of snowmelt to runoff and the water cycle. In this paper, taking the Jingou River Basin on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains, China as an example, we combined a new moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer(MODIS) snow cover extent product over China spanning ...     

Canopy cover or remotely sensed vegetation index,explanatory variables of above-ground biomass in an arid rangeland,Iran

Estimation of above-ground biomass is vital for understanding ecological processes. Since direct measurement of above-ground biomass is destructive, time consuming and labor intensive, canopy cover can be considered as a predictor if a significant correlation between the two variables exists. In this study, relationship between canopy cover and above-ground biomass was investigated by a general linear regression model. To do so, canopy cover and above-ground biomass were measured at 5 sub-life forms(defined as life forms grouped in the same height classes) using 380 quadrats, which is systematic-randomly laid out along a 10-km transect, during four sampling periods(May, June, August, and September) in an arid rangeland of Marjan, Iran. To reveal whether obtained canopy cover and above-ground biomass of different sampling periods can be lumped together or not, we applied a general linear model(GLM). In this model, above-ground biomass was considered as a dependent or response variable, canopy cover as an independent covariate or predictor factor and sub-life forms as well as sampling periods as fixed factors. Moreover, we compared the estimated above-ground biomass derived from remotely sensed images of Landsat-8 using NDVI(normalized difference vegetation index), after finding the best regression line between predictor(measured canopy cover in the field) and response variable(above-ground biomass) to test the robustness of the induced model. Results show that above-ground biomass(response variable) of all vegetative forms and periods can be accurately predicted by canopy cover(predictor), although sub-life forms and sampling periods significantly affect the results. The best regression fit was found for short forbs in September and shrubs in May, June and August with R~2 values of 0.96, 0.93 and 0.91, respectively, whilst the least significant was found for short grasses in June, tall grasses in August and tall forbs in June with R~2 values of 0.71, 0.73 and 0.75, respectively. Even though the estimated above-ground biomass by NDVI is also convincing(R~2=0.57), the canopy cover is a more reliable predictor of above-ground biomass due to the higher R~2 values(from 0.75 to 0.96). We conclude that canopy cover can be regarded as a reliable predictor of above-ground biomass if sub-life forms and sampling periods(during growing season) are taken into account. Since,(1) plant canopy cover is not distinguishable by remotely sensed images at the sub-life form level, especially in sparse vegetation of arid and semi-arid regions, and(2) remotely sensed-based prediction of above-ground biomass shows a less significant relationship(R~2=0.57) than that of canopy cover(R~2 ranging from 0.75 to 0.96), which suggests estimating of plant biomass by canopy cover instead of cut and weighting method is highly recommended. Furthermore, this fast, nondestructive and robust method that does not endanger rare species, gives a trustworthy prediction of above-ground biomass in arid rangelands.     

近51a来乌鲁木齐河源区径流特征及对气候变化的响应

基于天山乌鲁木齐河源区1959-2009年的径流与气象记录,采用线性回归、M-K突变检验法和水量平衡模型分析了河源区气候、冰川及融水量的变化特征。研究发现:河源区冰川径流量与冰川物质平衡成负相关关系,过去51a间河源1号冰川融水径流共增加157.48×104m3,冰川融水径流量增加主要是由冰川退缩和降水量增加造成的。自20世纪90年代以后,冰川融水径流量增加显著,但整个河源区径流量却在减少,与气温升高导致蒸散能力增强、地下冰结构变化及冰川融水补给能力下降等有关。     

利用GRACE重力卫星监测新疆天山山区水储量时空变化

利用经过高斯平滑滤波处理的2003年1月至2010年12月逐月的GRACE卫星时变重力场数据,反演得到新疆天山山区水储量变化,其空间分辨率为1°×1°,结合同时间段该区域31个国家气象台站逐月降水资料,采用趋势分析方法,研究天山山区近8 a来的水储量时空变化特征。结果表明：天山山区水储量变化具有明显的空间差异性,总体表现为东、西部多,中部少的空间分布格局。在时间上,水储量变化与降水具有明显的季节性变化规律,两者变化过程基本一致。天山山区平均水储量变化趋势的年内分布总体上1-12月呈递增变化;1-3月为负增长,最大负增长为21.7 mm•a^-1,出现在2月;4-12月呈正增长,最大月份出现在11月,增长趋势达到29.9 mm•a-¹。水储量变化增加的主要原因是天山山区近几年夏季降水有所增加造成的。2003-2010年天山山区水储量变化总体上呈逐年下降趋势,平均每月下降速度为4.8 mm,8 a间水储量变化减少约13×10⁸ m³,其主要原因是由于气候转暖、冰川消融加速、山前绿洲灌溉及生活用水量增加,导致山区水储量变化减少。     

新疆天山地区日照时数的气候特征

基于1961-2008年新疆天山地区23站日照时数的逐日资料,使用一元线性方程和M-K检验等统计方法,分析天山地区日照时数的时空变化特征。结果表明：①日照时数的气候分布存在明显的空间差异,呈东多西少,南多北少的分布特征。②区域平均日照时数均呈减少趋势,尤其在冬季和夏季。③四季除春季外日照时数均存在明显的年代际变化特征,...     

中国天山山区风速变化特征

利用天山山区27个气象站1960～2009年日平均风速、日平均气温、日最高和日最低气温等资料,运用一元回归分析法、IDW空间插值法、Mann-Kendall突变检验法和Matlab7.0软件,对天山山区风速的时空变化,突变年份和周期变化进行分析。结果表明:天山山区风速年际变化倾向率为-0.013m.s-1a-1,表明该区的风速呈明显减小趋势,比全国风速的减小更显著;四季的风速减小变化趋势也都比较显著;年风速自60年代逐渐减少,2000年以来减小幅度略有下降。风速突变检验显著,年及夏、秋季检验一致,在1980年发生突变;年风速距平序列在11年左右的振荡最为明显,其次是3年,由于时间序列较短,风速变化还可能存在更长的周期变化。     

全球变暖背景下天山地区近地面水汽变化研究

利用天山地区44个站1961-2009年水汽压数据,采用线性趋势估计、距平分析、Mann-Kendall趋势统计突变检验和功率谱等方法,分析天山地区近地面水汽变化及其与区域气候变化的关系。结果表明：天山地区近49 a来水汽总体呈增多趋势,年和四季水汽变化具有年际和年代际差异,最大增多趋势均出现在20世纪90年代中后期至21世纪初,最小值出现在70年代中后期和80年代中期,最大值出现在21世纪初。突变和周期分析得出,水汽年变化与西北地区气候变化趋势具有明显一致性。年降水变化与水汽相关最高,温度和青藏高原指数次之,其他因子相关一般。     

天山云杉倒木的持水特性

倒木在森林生态系统尤其是山地森林生态系统的水文功能和水土保育功能等方面具有重要的作用。为了解天山云杉（Picea schrenkiana var. tianschanica）倒木的持水特性和其对天山林区水文功能的影响,沿天山山脉由西至东选取跨越9个经度的5个地区（昭苏、新源、呼图壁、天池和奇台）分别进行取样,运用浸泡模拟法测定天山云杉倒木的吸水过程和持水能力。结果表明：① 天山云杉倒木的吸水过程在5个地区随着浸泡时间的推移,其持水量、持水率和持水能力均随着腐解等级的升高而增加。在浸泡吸水过程中天山云杉倒木的持水量(Q)随着浸泡时间(t)的增加而增加,两者的关系可用Q=aln t+b来拟合。② 浸泡过程中天山云杉倒木吸水速率(V)随着浸泡时间(t)的增加而呈下降的趋势,两者的关系可用V=c t^-d来拟合。③ 天山云杉倒木持水能力(Q′)与腐解等级(x)的关系可用方程Q′=ex²+fx+g来拟合。天山林区5个地区的天山云杉倒木的持水特性存在明显的差异,该成果为进一步开展天山林区水文功能性研究奠定了基础。     

中国东天山北坡40年来水热组合变化与古气候的关系

利用东天山北坡山区和平原共6个气象站40年来的降水量及气温记录,对各季、年的水热组合状况及其变化进行了统计分析,并与新疆5 000 aB P(中晚全新世)以来的水热组合主要规律进行了对比讨论.得到的基本结论为:(1) 从变化趋势看,除1987年相对暖湿(平原和秋冬两季表现尤其明显)外,40年来其它时段基本以暖干气候为主,也有冷湿气候出现;(2) 该结果与新疆历史时期百年尺度的水热组合变化规律存在一定的差异;(3)在一定程度上体现了中晚全新世以来,新疆气候以冷湿、暖干为主的水热组合规律只能代表百年尺度的变化,而年际尺度的变化规律还需要更多更深入地研究.