长江经济带农业投入产出的能值结构、效率及其驱动因素研究

长江经济带是中国经济社会发展水平较高的战略发展区域,现代化的农业生产方式为农业土地的可持续利用带来严重的压力,本研究旨在为长江经济带高质量、绿色发展提供科学依据、数据支撑与合理建议。本研究基于能值分析方法,通过对长江经济带2010—2018年投入产出项目计算并构建能值效率指标体系,对该地区农业投入产出的能值结构和效率进行深入研究。结果表明,长江经济带在2010—2018年间总能值投入和总能值产出均呈上升趋势,总能值产出始终低于投入,不可更新工业辅助能投入占比较高,农业土地利用结构不合理,资源利用效率较低,农业系统到2018年已发展为轻度不可持续状态,其中在这9年间对农业可持续状况影响最大的因素是投入结构。因此长江经济带需要积极调整农业投入结构,减小对外界辅助能值尤其是不可更新工业辅助能的依赖,提高资源利用效率,才能最终实现农业的可持续发展。     

论长江经济带农业绿色发展

长江经济带发展是中国正在实施的五大区域协调发展战略之一。“生态优先、绿色发展”、“共抓大保护、不搞大开发”已成为长江经济带发展的主旋律和鲜明导向。长江经济带农业在中国农业及整个经济发展战略中占有极其重要的战略地位和举足轻重的作用。推动长江经济带农业绿色发展,已成为长江经济带绿色发展的重要内容和有力抓手,是全国上下共同面临的紧迫任务。当前,长江经济带农业绿色发展面临着诸多问题与挑战,如资源浪费、生态破坏、环境污染、灾害频发和农业生态系统退化等。为实现长江经济带农业绿色发展,应针对上述问题采取以下对策与措施：（1）充分利用耕地,全年绿色覆盖;（2）减少化肥施用,扩大生物养地;（3）加强绿色防控,实施生态减灾;（4）发展循环农业,“废物”再生利用;（5）实行“九良”配套,实现综合发展,即将良田、良制、良种、良法、良物、良境、良品、良策、良才相互协调和配合,共同推动长江经济带农业综合发展、全面发展、绿色发展、高质量发展和可持续发展。     

湖北汉江生态经济带土地利用与覆盖变化研究

中国区域经济带的空间演变与经济社会的可持续发展具有密切的相关性,探索土地利用与覆盖变化对于未来发展具有重要意义。以中国中部地区产业发展与生态保护典型区域湖北汉江生态经济带为例,基于RS技术,在对湖北汉江生态经济带2000年、2007年、2013年3期遥感影像监督分类的基础上,运用土地利用动态度指数、土地利用综合程度指数、单一土地利用相对变化率等数学模型,定量分析了湖北汉江生态经济带13年间土地利用的时空格局及演变特点。研究表明：2000—2013年湖北汉江生态经济带土地利用结构稳定性较差;13年来,湖北汉江生态经济带耕地减少了10256.4756 km²,从土地利用转移矩阵分析,耕地主要是转向了林地,从遥感影像对比发现,城市周围的耕地被建设用地侵蚀,水域的变化幅度最小;从单一土地利用动态度分析,建设用地在2007—2013年变化最为剧烈,其动态度是4.826%;区域变化方面,各地级市（省辖市）土地利用变化显著,汉阳与潜江的水域变化率较大,从总体而言,神农架林区各类土地利用类型变率均较低。     

新疆布尔津县五年间归一化植被指数时空演变

基于新疆布尔津县2010—2014逐月MODIS-NDVI遥感数据,旨在了解布尔津县四季的归一化植被指数NDVI时空分异规律。采用趋势分析方法,分析了5年来布尔津县NDVI的时间动态特征和空间变化趋势,定量的探讨了5年间研究区NDVI的时空演变。结果表明：(1) 2010—2014年布尔津县NDVI的时序变化呈现下降趋势,反映出不同季节NDVI的大小为：夏季>秋季>春季>冬季。(2) 5年间NDVI 不同年份同季节变化情况大体上变化幅度较小,不同季节 NDVI 的年际变化特征呈现出显著差异,其中春季变化特征显著,而夏季空间分布变化不明显,分布规律相对较为稳定;(3) 5年间布尔津县夏季年均NDVI变化趋势逐渐增加;春季NDVI变化趋势减小,植被指数逐步降低;秋季NDVI变化趋势增加,北部植物分布减少;冬季NDVI变化趋势减小。本研究对布尔津县植被覆盖的时空分布和演变进行分析,为生态环境的区域保护提供一些科学参考。     

山东省土地利用生态-社会-经济系统耦合协调度时空演变及障碍因子分析

旨在为优化配置土地资源及促进区域生态、社会、经济可持续发展提供理论参考和数据支持,本研究通过构建土地利用效益评价指标体系和耦合协调度模型,引入相对发展度和障碍度模型,探究了山东省17地市土地利用生态-社会-经济系统耦合协调度时空演变特征及主要影响因素。结果表明,2008—2017年间,山东省土地利用生态-社会-经济系统整体处于磨合阶段的初级协调状态,耦合协调度多年均值为0.63,且呈持续上升趋势,由0.54提升至0.70;各地市间耦合协调度均衡化水平逐步提高,变异系数由0.126降至0.072,但仍呈现出较明显的自鲁东至鲁中、鲁西地区递减的梯度分布差异;各地市土地利用生态、社会、经济子系统间相对发展度差异显著,至2017年,威海市同鲁中地区南部两侧及其以北构成了明显的半圈式生态滞后区;影响土地利用生态、社会、经济耦合协调发展的社会经济障碍一直占据主导,但2013年后生态影响有所增强。研究期内,山东省各地市土地利用生态-社会-经济系统耦合协调水平不断提高,但区域间差异性仍较明显,尚有较大改善空间,建议各地市考虑其主要障碍因子,执行因地制宜的差别化发展战略。     

基于地学图谱的县级尺度土地利用时空变化特征研究——以酉阳土家族苗族自治县为例

探究2000—2015年间酉阳县土地利用演变特征规律及地理生态过程,为实现区域土地资源可持续利用提供科学依据。本研究运用图谱理论信息学探究区域土地利用空间分布特征和时空演变规律。结果表明:15年间研究区不同地类呈现不同的发展趋势,土地利用结构主要以林地和草地为主,面积比例分别为86.79%、88.54%、86.13%和85.86%,林地占据一定优势地位。3个时序单元的主要图谱单元类型及面积存在一定的差异性;土地利用涨势和落势图谱中,林地涨势面积最大,占新增面积比例的38.67%,草地落势面积最大,占萎缩面积的比例为38.03%。该研究为今后酉阳县土地利用可持续发展和生态建设提供理论依据和科学支持。     

浙江省茶树冬季冻害时空分布特征

为了分析浙江省茶树冬季冻害时空分布特征。本研究提出了茶树冬季冻害的气象指标和等级划分,基于该指标和全省64个基本气象站1971—2011年气象数据,采用经验正交函数和小波分析方法,研究了浙江省茶树冬季冻害的空间分布和时间演变特征。结果表明,茶树轻度、中度和重度冬季冻害第1模态能总体反映冬季冻害发生的多年平均状况。轻度和重度冬季冻害第1模态空间分布均表现为全省一致为正,轻度和重度高值区均位于浙江省西北部等地;中度冬季冻害第1模态空间分布表现为除温州东部、台州东南部地区外,其余地区都为负值,其特征向量绝对值的最大值位于浙北、浙中地区。研究结果可为茶树生产提供科学依据。     

甘肃省县域农民人均纯收入时空格局变异分析

促进区域农业的快速发展、实现农民收入水平的整体持续提高是全面建成小康社会的重大任务。综合运用SPSS、GeoDa和ARCGIS 9.3软件,利用甘肃省1995—2011年县域农民人均纯收入数据,对县域农民收入的时空变动特征、总体和局部空间格局变化及成因进行了初步探析。结果表明：甘肃省县域农民收入水平空间自相关特性明显,收入水平相似的地区在空间上集聚分布,呈现出“哑铃”形的空间格局,即农民高收入地区集中分布在河西地区,低收入地区集中分布在陇中、陇东、陇南地区。地理区位条件的不同、经济发展的失衡及社会条件的差异是农民收入水平地域差异的主要原因。     

天山北坡经济带城乡关联发展定量评价

笔者以天山北坡经济带11市县的城乡区域系统为研究对象,采用主成分分析法对该区域城乡关联发展水平进行了定量评价,以期为天山北坡经济带城乡区域系统的协调发展提供依据。研究表明：城乡关联度与城市化水平和人均GDP有着密切关系,呈正相关性;天山北坡经济带城乡关联发展水平具有显著的等级和空间差异;而且,采用主成分分析法对天山北坡经济带城乡关联度的量化分析与与该区域城乡关联发展的实际水平基本相符,表明主成分分析法对城乡关联发展的定量分析是可行的。     

基于县域尺度的旅游经济时空差异特征——以甘南藏族自治州为例

为了说明旅游经济时空差异对促进甘南州旅游经济协调发展,提高甘南州旅游业发展水平的作用,本研究以甘南州7 县1 市（县级市）为研究对象,运用变异系数、泰尔指数、因子分析法等方法,对2010—2016 年的甘南州旅游经济时空差异特征进行分析。结果表明：甘南州旅游经济总体呈向上发展的趋势,旅游经济的绝对差异逐渐增大,相对差异缓慢缩小。区域内部差异逐渐缩小且影响着甘南州旅游经济地区差异的总体发展趋势;甘南州7 县1 市旅游经济发展水平差异在空间上呈现出3 种不同的类型区。建议甘南州在完善旅游基础设施条件、开发新的旅游项目和旅游产品、加强旅游合作和拓展宣传渠道方面,着力缩小旅游经济差异。     

The innovation effect of low-carbon technology transfer from the perspective of carbon emission reduction demand: A case study of the Yangtze River Economic Belt in China

Reducing carbon emissions is the only way to solve the global climate problem, which obviously requires the joint efforts of all regions. From the perspective of carbon emission reduction demand, this research obtains the data of low-carbon patents and CO₂ emissions from 2000 to 2019, and then explores the innovation effect of low-carbon technology transfer in the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB). We draw the following conclusions: (1) Low-carbon technology transfer has a positive impact on low-carbon technology innovation. However, a large number of low-carbon technology transfers are concentrated between developed regions in the YREB at present. (2) No matter from the perspective of total amount or efficiency, carbon emission reduction demand can play positive moderating role in the process of exerting the innovation effect of low-carbon technology transfer, indicating that the transfer of low-carbon technologies to regions with high demand is efficient. (3) The moderating effect of carbon emission reduction demand in different regions has regional heterogeneity. Carbon emissions per unit of GDP plays a greater role in moderating the innovation effect of low-carbon technology transfer in the eastern region, while CO₂ emissions plays a greater role in the central and western regions. Therefore, we propose to strengthen the transfer of low-carbon technologies between developed and less-developed regions, and adopt differentiation strategies according to the actual situation of each region. Our research has deepened the understanding of environmental economic geography on the innovation effect of low-carbon technology transfer, and has reference significance for global low-carbon technology cooperation.     

长江经济带能源消费和经济增长的灰色关联分析

为深入了解长江经济带能源消费与经济增长的关系,本文基于灰色关联分析模型,利用1995-2015年能源消费与经济增长相关数据,对长江经济带能源消费与经济增长的相关性进行实证分析。结果表明: 在能源消费产业中,批发、零售业和住宿、餐饮业能源消费与经济增长的关联度最大,为0.88,农业、工业能源消费与经济增长的关联度最小,分别为0.50、0.52;在能源消费品种中,煤碳消费量与经济增长的关联度相对较小;以天然气和电力为代表的优质能源与经济增长具有显著的关联度。长江经济带应着力调整产业结构、优化能源消费结构,以实现绿色低碳循环发展。     

Evolution of spatial structure patterns of city networks in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from the perspective of corporate pledge linkage

The pledge of stock rights is a method for measuring the external horizontal connections of enterprises, which is more suitable to represent the city network compared with the vertical connections of enterprises. Meanwhile, it is greatly significant to express the relationships of regional spaces. The paper characterizes and explores the evolution of urban spatial structure with complex network research methods to enrich the relevant works on city networks in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2011 to 2017. The results are as follows: First, from 2011 to 2017, the pledge of stock rights among cities was enhanced significantly, and the trend of the city networks' characteristics become strengthened and more complicated. Second, cities in the Yangtze River Delta have relatively high connection values, however, cities in the western area are holding peripheral positions within the city network. Third, due to the advantages of economic agglomeration and radiation, the provincial capital have become the core nodes in the city network. Fourth, Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Nanjing have dominant positions within city networks in the Yangtze River Economic Belt. Particularly, Shanghai, as one of the leading financial centers in China, has a growing influence on other cities and gradually evolved into a regional growth pole city and the first core city.     

芜湖市化肥减量增效与农田氮磷流失控制技术研究

芜湖市位于长江经济带,农业面源污染控制对于长江生态大保护至关重要.本研究分析了芜湖市2017年化肥使用量,核算了种植业农田氮磷流失量,并剖析了芜湖市化肥使用现状.结果 表明,存在传统的施肥方法和施肥结构不合理、化肥施用类型单一施用量偏大、高效施肥技术普及率低等问题.研究提出并分析芜湖市适用的水稻机械化插秧同步侧深施肥技...     

How does financial agglomeration affect green development? Evidence from the Yangtze River Delta of China

An extensive economic growth mode leads to resource depletion and environmental degradation. Green development is the best way to solve this problem. We analyzed the sample data of 41 cities in the Yangtze River Delta of China from 2007 to 2019. We used the spatial Durbin model and interaction term model to study the effects of regional financial agglomeration (FA) on green development and the moderating role of green technology innovation. The results show that FA promotes local green development but inhibits the green development of neighboring areas. Because the polarization effect of the growth pole is greater than its dispersion effect, cities with high levels of FA have a strong “siphon effect” on the surrounding areas. Green technology innovation positively moderates the promoting effect of FA on green development; the higher the level of green technology innovation and the degree of emphasis on it, the stronger the promoting effect. The government should encourage green finance to promote green technology innovation and promote the green development of the regional economy. These findings provide new insights for developing countries to achieve sustainable development under environmental constraints.     

Analysis of green total factor productivity trend and its determinants for the countries along silk roads

In coping with increasing energy consumption and the consequential environmental pollution, green development is becoming an important part of social development. Since the inauguration of China’s Silk Road Economic Belt Initiative (BRI), economic cooperation between China and other countries along BRI has seen much growth. Therefore, it is of great significance to study the levels of green total factor productivity (GTFP) of the countries in the Silk Roads Economic Belt (B&R) and examine how these levels vary spatially and evolve temporally. In this paper, a panel regression analysis with DEA windows is used to study the spatiotemporal trends of the levels of GTFP. The results are: (1) The B&R countries have seen an increase in their overall levels of GTFP over time; (2) There are regional differences in the levels of GTFP, with higher efficiency in Western Asia and Central and Eastern Europe, and lower efficiency in Southeast and Central Asia; (3) The analysis of GTFP for countries in these regions shows that the efficiencies of most countries have been improving, with that of only a few countries have been decreasing; (4) By using regression analysis, we find that variables such as import, export, industrial structure, and urban affect the B&R countries with growing GTFP.     

“City-Scene” Characteristics and Optimization Strategies Research on Three Gorges Reservoir Area of the Post-Three Gorges Era

In the long-term symbiotic evolution process,the town areas along the Yangtze River and its natural and cultural landscapes have presented a sound "city-scene" landscape form. But with the implementation of the Three Gorges project,the town relocation as well as the flooding in the natural and human landscape area,the original harmonious "city-scene" pattern started to collapse and fell into the situation of "fragmentation" and "islanding". The differentiation between city and landscape,uncoordinated scale and fractured urban context become pressing issues that affect the integral form optimization of the town areas. This paper aims at responding to the call of the government about proceeding the construction of the Yangtze River economic belt under the ecological and green strategy and seeking an attuned "cityscene" relationship of the town area. Based on the analysis of the dynamic evolution of the "city-scene" relationship,the paper also pointed out that the urban construction around the reservoir area in the postThree Gorges era was the key stage of "scene-city" integration and symbiosis while the maintenance of scenery pattern,the harmony of space scale and the protection of living culture should be applied as the vital strategies.     

中国草鱼产业发展的空间分布及演化研究——基于标准椭圆模型

为研究大宗淡水鱼养殖和产业空间优化问题,基于标准椭圆模型,以大宗淡水鱼产量最多的草鱼为研究对象,2006—2016年国内31个省级行政区草鱼产业养殖规模为基准,分析草鱼产业发展的空间分布格局（集聚度、重心、范围、方向）、演变特征及影响因素。研究表明,国内草鱼产业空间演变呈离散化集聚发展态势。长江流域中上游地区产量的稳步增加,西北干旱、半干旱地区的草鱼养殖扩大,推动了草鱼产业标准椭圆向西、向北偏移。草鱼产业发展的空间布局呈现分散化集聚,草鱼养殖逐渐由粗放型养殖向精细化养殖方式转变,产业发展在空间上存在由中东部向西、向北传递机制。这主要是草鱼具有良好的环境适应性、中西部成本较为低廉和市场扩大效应导致的。