Individual-tree diameter growth model for sugar maple trees in uneven-aged northern hardwood stands under selection system

An individual-tree diameter model was developed for sugar maple (Acer saccharum Marsh.) in northern hardwood stands managed under selection system. We fitted long-term remeasurement data to a linear mixed model to account for the temporal autocorrelation of the remeasurements. The model was evaluated using independent data from two physiographic regions and representing a range of tree diameter classes, residual basal areas and years since cut. We compared our model to several individual-tree models based on data from stands with varied management histories. Several competition indices were also tested for an improvement in model fitting and prediction. Our model had lower bias and prediction error when compared to two previous models, as it better accounted for the increased diameter growth that occurred in trees from appropriately managed stands. The addition of a tree-specific competition index failed to improve model fit and predictive ability over stand-level basal area.     

A basal area increment model for individual trees in mixed continuous cover forests in Iranian Caspian forests

The aim of this study was to develop and test a new basal area growth model in mixed species continuous cover forests in northern Iran.Weanalyzed 421 core samples from 6 main species in the forest area to develop our growth model.In each plot,we measured variables such as total tree height(m),diameter at breast height(DBH)(cm)and basal area of larger trees as cumulative basal areas of trees(GCUM)ofDBH[5 cm.The empirical data were analyzed using regression analysis.There was a statistically significant nonlinear function between the annual basal area increment,as the dependent variable,and the basal area of the individual trees and competition as explanatory variables.Reference area from the largest trees,was circular plot with area of 0.1 ha.GCUM was estimated for trees of DBH>5 cm.Furthermore,we investigated the dependencies of diameter growth of different species on stand density at different levels of competition,and diameter development of individual trees through time.The results indicate that competition caused by larger neighborhood trees has a negative effect on growth.In addition,the maximum diameter increment is affected by competition level.Therefore,the maximum diameter increment of species occurs when the trees are about 35–40 cm in dense-forest(40 to 0 m^2 per ha)and when the trees are about 60 to 70 cm in very dense forest(60 to 0 m^2 per ha)which is more likely to Caspian natural forests with high level density due to uneven-aged composition of stands.     

Growth and productivity of black spruce in even- and uneven-aged stands at the limit of the closed boreal forest

The increasing commercial interest and advancing exploitation of new remote territories of the boreal forest require deeper knowledge of the productivity of these ecosystems. Canadian boreal forests are commonly assumed to be evenly aged, but recent studies show that frequent small-scale disturbances can lead to uneven-aged class distributions. However, how age distribution affects tree growth and stand productivity at high latitudes remains an unanswered question. Dynamics of tree growth in even- and uneven-aged stands at the limit of the closed black spruce (Picea mariana) forest in Quebec (Canada) were assessed on 18 plots with ages ranging from 77 to 340 years. Height, diameter and age of all trees were measured. Stem analysis was performed on the 10 dominant trees of each plot by measuring tree-ring widths on discs collected each meter from the stem, and the growth dynamics in height, diameter and volume were estimated according to tree age. Although growth followed a sigmoid pattern with similar shapes and asymptotes in even- and uneven-aged stands, trees in the latter showed curves more flattened and with increases delayed in time. Growth rates in even-aged plots were at least twice those of uneven-aged plots. The vigorous growth rates occurred earlier in trees of even-aged plots with a culmination of the mean annual increment in height, diameter and volume estimated at 40–80 years, 90–110 years earlier than in uneven-aged plots. Stand volume ranged between 30 and 238 m³ ha⁻¹ with 75% of stands showing values lower than 120 m³ ha⁻¹ and higher volumes occurring at greater dominant heights and stand densities. Results demonstrated the different growth dynamics of black spruce in single- and multi-cohort stands and suggested the need for information on the stand structure when estimating the effective or potential growth performance for forest management of this species.     

Prediction of tree height,basal area and stem volume in forest stands using airborne laser scanning

The aim of this study was to develop prediction models using laser scanning for estimation of forest variables at plot level, validate the estimations at stand level (area 0.64 ha) and test the effect of different laser measurement densities on the estimation errors. The predictions were validated using 29 forest stands (80×80 m²), each containing 16 field plots with a 10 m radius. For the best tested case, mean tree height, basal area and stem volume were predicted with a root mean square error of 0.59 m (3% of average value), 2.7 m² ha^?1 (10% of average value) and 31 m³ ha^?1 (11% of average value), respectively, at stand level. There were small differences in terms of prediction errors for different measuring densities. The results indicate that mean tree height, basal area and stem volume can be estimated in small stands with low laser measurement densities producing accuracies similar to traditional field inventories.     

Estimation of a basal area growth model for individual trees in uneven-aged Caspian mixed species forests

The aim of this study was to estimate a basal area growth model for individual trees in uneven-aged Caspian forests. A survey was conducted in order to find a natural forest without any harvesting activities, a so called ‘untouched forest’ and an area was selected from the Iranian Caspian forest. Three sample plots in the same aspect and of the same forest type were selected. In each plot, total tree height, diameter at breast height, distance of neighbor trees and azimuth were measured. Thirty trees were selected and drilled with increment borer to determine the increment model. Regression analysis was used to estimate the growth model. Results show that, for individual trees, there is a significant nonlinear relationship between the annual basal area increment, as the dependent variable, and the basal area. The results also show that the basal area of competing trees has a positive influence on growth. That the increment is higher with more competing neighboring trees is possibly because plots with higher volume per hectare and more competition, most likely also have higher site index or better soil or better site productivity than the plot with lower volume per hectare.     

Representing site productivity in the basal area increment model for FVS-Ontario

The utility of site index as a predictor variable in models for complex, mixed species stands is limited because the site index concept is not well suited for these stand types. Additionally, there is no standard protocol of estimating site index for uneven-aged mixed species stands, which is evident in permanent sample plot (PSP) and co-operative (COOP) data sets available from the Province of Ontario, Canada. Under such circumstances, an alternative to site index in a basal area increment model was explored, using a combination of climate and Forest Ecosystem Classification (FEC) variables from the Ontario boreal region. Among the four candidate climate variables chosen, mean annual temperature (MAT) explained the most variability in basal area increment for the four selected tree species – trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.), balsam fir (Abies balsamea (L.) Mill.), jack pine (Pinus banksiana Lamb.), and black spruce (Picea mariana (Mill.) B.S.P.). Our results indicated that a combination of the climate variable, MAT, and FEC explained a substantially higher proportion of variation in the basal area increment than site index alone. Thus, climate and FEC variables are superior substitutes in the basal area increment model even when error-free site index values are possible to obtain.     

A reduced growth model based on stand basal area. A case for hybrid poplar plantations in northeast Spain

Whole-stand models normally require data on initial stand basal area and dominant height. Dominant height measurements are time-consuming and often imprecise, compromising subsequent predictions. Poplar plantations provide a special case where basal area correlates with site index; a whole-stand model could thus be based on stand basal area. We report a static model constructed by the generalized algebraic difference approach (GADA) for poplar plantations for three different hybrid poplars (Populus × euramericana (Dode) Guinier “I-214”, “MC”, and “Luisa Avanzo”) in northeast Spain. The transition function was based on current stand basal area and was fitted with data from 158 permanent plots ranging from 1- to 17-year-old plantations. Merchantable stand volume was estimated by a volume equation where height was predicted by a height–basal area relationship based on 458 temporary plots. The model differences between clones were compared using the nonlinear extra sum of squares method. Significant differences were detected, while Luisa Avanzo presented the highest merchantable volume at the end of the rotation. Errors in basal area predictions were below 20% within 6 years in the case of Luisa Avanzo and MC clones, and within 3 years in the case of I-214. Our research showed that satisfactory predictions can be obtained using GADA with a single transition function based on an easily measurable variable such as stand basal area.     

Derivation of stumpage value and logging costs for individual forest stands using aerial photographs and cartographic modelling

A procedure for calculation of stumpage value and logging costs of individual mature forest stands using aerial photo‐interpretation and a grid‐based geographical information system (GIS) is presented. The stumpage value may be computed from characteristics related to the trees, i.e. site index, stand mean height, crown closure, and tree species distribution, using price equations. By means of cost equations, the logging costs may be calculated from the tree characteristics and the terrain characteristics of slope gradient and skidding distance. The practical application of the procedure was demonstrated by a case study in a 710 ha forest area in southern Norway. The tree characteristics were determined by photo‐interpretation of individual stands. Skid paths for wood transportation from the stands to landings along the forest roads were delineated by photo‐interpretation of the ground conditions. Slope and skidding distances were derived by a digital elevation model and cartographic modelling. Finally, the photo‐interpreted tree characteristics and the computed slope and skidding distances were used for calculation of the stumpage value and the logging costs of each stand. According to previous tests, the accuracy of the procedure corresponded to the accuracy that could be achieved by the field‐survey methods used most frequently.     

Models for predicting height and diameter of individual trees in young Picea abies (L) karst. stands

Models for predicting height and diameter of individual trees in young Picea abies (L.) Karst. stands were developed. Data collected in a large survey of young forest stands in Sweden (the HUGIN young stand survey) were used in the construction of the models. Models were developed both with and without competition indices included. When constructing the competition indices trees within three metres from the subject tree were regarded as competitors. Functions with competition indices included (distance dependent) will be useful in analyses of the development of stands with different stand structure, whereas functions without competition indices (distance independent) will be useful in systems for long‐term forecasts of yield.     

A growth and self-thinning model for pure even-age stands: theory and applications

A self-thinning model is developed for fully stocked and under stocked pure even-aged stands. The self-thinning power law for fully stocked stands can be considered as a special case of this model. A stand growth model is developed by combining the self-thinning model with a basal-area increment model. This stand growth model can be used to estimate the average diameter and stand density at any given stand age with any initial stand conditions. The model was tested with yield table data. The model predictions were found to be agree with independent developed yield table data.     

Calibrating and testing a gap model for simulating forest management in the Oregon Coast Range

The complex mix of economic and ecological objectives facing today's forest managers necessitates the development of growth models with a capacity for simulating a wide range of forest conditions while producing outputs useful for economic analyses. We calibrated the gap model ZELIG to simulate stand-level forest development in the Oregon Coast Range as part of a landscape-scale assessment of different forest management strategies. Our goal was to incorporate the predictive ability of an empirical model with the flexibility of a forest succession model. We emphasized the development of commercial-aged stands of Douglas-fir, the dominant tree species in the study area and primary source of timber. In addition, we judged that the ecological approach of ZELIG would be robust to the variety of other forest conditions and practices encountered in the Coast Range, including mixed-species stands, small-scale gap formation, innovative silvicultural methods, and reserve areas where forests grow unmanaged for long periods of time. We parameterized the model to distinguish forest development among two ecoregions, three forest types and two site productivity classes using three data sources: chronosequences of forest inventory data, long-term research data, and simulations from an empirical growth-and-yield model. The calibrated model was tested with independent, long-term measurements from 11 Douglas-fir plots (6 unthinned, 5 thinned), 3 spruce-hemlock plots, and 1 red alder plot. ZELIG closely approximated developmental trajectories of basal area and large trees in the Douglas-fir plots. Differences between simulated and observed conifer basal area for these plots ranged from −2.6 to 2.4 m²/ha; differences in the number of trees/ha ≥50 cm dbh ranged from −8.8 to 7.3 tph. Achieving these results required the use of a diameter-growth multiplier, suggesting some underlying constraints on tree growth such as the temperature response function. ZELIG also tended to overestimate regeneration of shade-tolerant trees and underestimate total tree density (i.e., higher rates of tree mortality). However, comparisons with the chronosequences of forest inventory data indicated that the simulated data are within the range of variability observed in the Coast Range. Further exploration and improvement of ZELIG is warranted in three key areas: (1) modeling rapid rates of conifer tree growth without the need for a diameter-growth multiplier; (2) understanding and remedying rates of tree mortality that were higher than those observed in the independent data; and (3) improving the tree regeneration module to account for competition with understory vegetation.     

A forest planning model for continuous employment in a forested village with primarily young stands in Korea

This paper presents a practical forest planning approach for continuous forest-based employment in a forested village with primarily young stands. The model is designed to find the practice level for continuous forest employment which embraces both the goal of maximizing the total forest employment and the constraint of maintaining its annual balance, considering forest size and condition, and budget available for forest practice. Through controlling the practice level with the help of a desired employment effect that contributes to allocating forest practices equally to each plan year, a marginal practice level can be found under which any practice level fulfills the goal and constraints. The potential practice area, which is determined by forest area, stand age, and practice schedule, contributes to determining the area silviculturally available for forest practice. Our forest planning model is focused on the planning of young forests which are not expected to yield merchantable products in the near term. The model can also be characterized by landscape-level forest planning in which stand-level practices are planned for achieving a forest-level goal of continuous forest employment. Thus, the model can serve as a basic planning tool for maintaining healthy forests as well as continuous forest employment in young forest areas, where forest-level goals are predicated on stand level practices.     

Development of a linear mixed-effects individual-tree basal area increment model for masson pine in Hunan Province,South-central China

ABSTRACT

An individual-tree basal area increment model was developed for masson pine based on 26276 observations of 13,138 trees in 987 sample plots from the 7th (2004), 8th (2009), and 9th (2014) Chinese National Forest Inventory in Hunan Province, South-central China. The model was built using a linear mixed-effects approach with sample plots included as random effects since the data have a hierarchical stochastic structure and biased estimates of the standard error of parameter estimates could be a consequence of applying ordinary least square (OLS) for regression. In addition, within-plot heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation were also considered. The final mixed-effects model was determined according to the Akaike information criterion (AIC), Bayesian information criterion (BIC), log-likelihood (Loglik), and the likelihoodratio test (LRT). The results revealed that initial diameter (DBH), the sum of the basal area (m²/ha) in trees with DBHs larger than the DBH of the subject tree (BAL), number of trees per hectare (NT), and elevation (EL) had a significant impact on individual-tree basal area increment. The mixed-effects model performed much better than the basic model produced using OLS. Additionally, the variance structure of the model errors was successfully modeled using the power function. However, the autocorrelation structures were not defined because there was no autocorrelation amongst the data. It is believed that the final model will contribute to the scientific management of the masson pine.     

Evaluation and scenario simulation for forest ecological security in China

Continuously growing populations and rapid economic development have led to the excessive use of forest resources,and the forest ecosystem is threatened.In response,forest ecological security(FES)has attracted attention.In this study,an integrated dynamic simulation model was constructed using the system dynamic method,and it was used to evaluate the FES in China from 1999 to 2014.A scenario analysis was then used to evaluate the changes in the FES under five forestry policy scenarios for the 2015–2050 period,including the baseline,afforestation policy,harvesting policies,management policy,investment policy,and a policy mix.The results showed that the evaluation values of the FES increased during the period from 1999 to 2002,the period from 2004 to 2010 and the year 2014,and they decreased in 2003 and during the period from 2011 to 2013.During the 2015–2050 simulation period,the FES improved continuously.In particular,China would enter a new stage when the economic systems,social systems and ecosystems were in harmony after 2040.To improve the FES and the current status of the FES,a scenario analysis showed the most suitable scenario to be Scenario 5 from 2015 to 2020 and Scenario 2 from 2021 to 2050.To relieve pressure,the most suitable scenario would be Scenario 5 from 2015 to 2040 and from 2046 to 2050,and the most suitable scenario would be Scenario 4 for 2041–2045.A policy mix(Scenario 5)would be most efficient under current conditions,while the effects of all the benefits of the forestry policies would weaken over the long term.The integrated method can be regarded as a decision support tool to help policy makers understand FES and promulgate a reasonable forestry policy.     

Basal area growth models for individual trees of Norway spruce, Scots pine, birch and other broadleaves in Norway

Distance-independent individual tree growth models based on about 30,000 observations from the National Forest Inventory and the Norwegian Forest Research Institute have been developed for the main tree species in Norway. The models predict 5-year basal area increment over bark for trees larger than 5 cm at breast height. Potential input variables were of four types: size of the tree, competition indices, site conditions, and stand variables including species, mixtures and layers. The squared correlation coefficient (R²) varied from 0.26 to 0.55. The accuracy of the models was tested by comparing the individual tree models with Norwegian diameter increment models. The accuracy is similar, but individual tree models forecast diameter distributions directly. The inclusion of species mixture and layer as variables increases the reliability of the models in mixed and in uneven-aged stands.     

Comparison of Forest Inventory and Analysis surveys, basal area models, and fitting methods for the aspen forest type in Minnesota

The Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) unit of the U.S. Forest Service has collected, compiled, and made available plot data from three measurement periods (identified as 1977, 1990, and 2003, respectively) within Minnesota. Yet little if any research has compared the relative utility of these datasets for developing empirical yield models. This paper compares these and other subdatasets in the context of fitting a basal area (B) yield model to plot data from the aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.) forest type. In addition, several models and fitting methods are compared for their applicability and stability over time. Results suggest that the three parent datasets, along with their subdatasets, provide very similar three parameter B yield model prediction capability, but as model complexity increases, variability in coefficient estimates increases between datasets. The absence of data for older aspen stands and the inherent noise within B data prevented the exact determination of an overall best model. However, the model B = b₁S^b₂(1 − exp( − b₃A)) with site index (S) and stand age (A) as predictors was found consistently among the highest in precision and stability. Additionally, nonlinear least squares and nonlinear mixed-effects fitting procedures produced similar model fits, but the latter is preferred for its potential to improve model projections. The results indicate little practical difference between datasets from different time periods and different sizes when used for fitting the models. Additionally, these results will likely extend to other states or regions with similar remeasurement data on aspen and other forest types, thus facilitating the development of other ecological models focused on forest management.     

Genetic diversity of Castanopsis acuminatissima (Bl.) A. DC. in northern Thailand and the selection of seed trees for forest restoration

Castanopsis acuminatissima (Bl.) A. DC. is one of a number of framework species which are being planted to restore seasonally dry tropical forests in northern Thailand. This study describes the level of microsatellite variation within and among three populations of this species in three National Parks in northern Thailand: Doi Suthep-Pui, Doi Inthanon and Jae Sawn, using published primers developed for Castanopsis cuspidata var. sieboldii Nakai. The five microsatellite loci employed in this study detected a total of 54 alleles (n = 72). The informativeness of the microsatellite loci varied from six to 18 alleles, with an average of 10.8 alleles found over all loci. The mean observed heterozygosities in the three populations showed no significant deviations from Hardy-Weinberg expectations. The vast majority of genetic diversity was contained within the populations, with no significant differentiation between them (F_ST = 0.006). Algorithms were designed to capture microsatellite diversity, and the rationale for using microsatellite markers to inform genetic conservation is discussed. The implications for seed collection of C. acuminatissima for forest restoration are also discussed.     

森林碳固定能力计算方法及长株潭区域碳年固定量估算

根据森林生态系统碳(CO2)平衡原理方程式[Fc=Nc(植物年净C)+Dc(凋落物C)+Mc(微生物C)+Ec(土壤动物及其它有机物C)-Rs(土壤放出C)],建立了森林生态系统碳(CO2)年固定量计算式:Fc=∑m∑nBEFcij·Xcij·11λi·Mkij·113-0.6Rij·Sij式中:Xcij———森林植物年净生产量;3+113Dcij+∑Hk=1j=1i=1Dcij———凋落物碳(CO2)固定量;Mkij———微生物自身碳素量;Rij———土壤呼吸放出CO2量;Sij———面积;i———森林类型序号;j———地域或土类序号。求算出长株潭地区森林生态系统年CO2固定量为3945.3×104t,是长株潭三市2000年工业燃料燃烧排放CO2总量的2.38倍。森林生态系统碳(CO2)固定能力,变幅在6.784～54.163t/(hm2·a-1)之间,大小排序为毛竹林>国外松林>阔叶林>四旁林>柏木林>马尾松林>杉木林>灌丛疏林>经济林。     

A probability model for root and butt rot in Picea abies derived from Norwegian national forest inventory data

Root rot in Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) causes substantial economic losses to the forestry sector. In this study, we developed a probability model for decay at breast height utilizing 18,141 increment cores sampled on temporary plots of the Norwegian National Forest Inventory. The final model showed a good fit to the data and retained significant relationships between decay and a suite of tree, stand and site variables, including diameter at breast height, stand age, altitude, growing season temperature sum (threshold 5°C), and vegetation type. By comparing model predictions with recorded decay at stump height in an independent data set, we estimated a proportionality function to adjust for the inherent underestimation of total rot that will be obtained by applying a probability model derived from increment cores sampled at breast height. We conclude that the developed model is appropriate for national and regional scenario analyses in Norway, and could also be useful as a tool for operational forestry planning. This would however require further testing on independent data, to assess how well the new model predicts decay at local scales.