中俄远东地区木材贸易问题与对策研究

目前,中国木材资源缺口基本保持在1.5亿m3左右,这部分主要靠进口木材来补充.中国木材的主要供应国俄罗斯鼓励发展国内木材深加工,特别是中国进口木材的主要供应地区俄远东已开始逐步限制原木出口.对此,本文分析了俄远东地区森林资源与木材生产状况,探讨了中俄远东木材贸易现状及其存在的主要问题,提出了未来中俄远东木材贸易的对策建议.     

Problems and Countermeasures to Timber Trade between China and Russian Far East Region

The shortfall of timber resource in China constantly keeps about 150 million m3, which mainly relies on import to fill in the gap. However, Russia, the key timber supply state of China, has encouraged the development of its national intensive timber processing and therefore the Russian Far East Region started to gradually restrict log export. To this end, this paper analyzes the situation of forest industry and timber production in Russian Far East and discusses the current status and existing problems in timber trade between Russian Far East and China. At the end, the paper presents policy recommendation for future timber trade between Russian Far East and China and views their forestry cooperation prospect.     

Forest policy reform and the restructuring of the forest industry in Russia

The Russian forest is the last big wood basket of the international timber market and the conservation of the Russian forest is critical to protect global environment. There is a strong need to analyze present situation of forest policy and forest industry in Russia. The basic direction of forest policy reform of Russia is decentralization and introduction of market principles. However, the lack of specialists in forest policy in the regions and the conflict between central and regional governments has accelerated the confusion of forest policy. Forest management organizations cannot spare enough money for forest management because of the financial crisis of Russian government. Forest industry has also deteriorated. Although privatization of the forest industry was completed, it did not improve the management of enterprises and they could not survive the economic crisis. Output of the forest industry has decreased and most enterprises came close to bankruptcy. Under these circumstances, the former regional amalgamation of forest industry, which has accumulated hard currency earned by timber export, re-took control of the industry and tried to increase timber exports even more. However, logging enterprises, facing economic crises, cannot observe forest regulations and forest management organization cannot control these violations. A recovery of forest industry may accelerate the degradation of forest resources in Russia.     

黑龙江省木材进口贸易发展现状、问题及对策

俄罗斯木材是中国进口木材的重要组成部分.黑龙江省在中国俄罗斯木材进口中占据不可替代的位置.本文在总结了黑龙江省木材进口贸易发展概况及特点的基础上,分析了其发展中存在的主要问题;基于可持续发展的视角,提出了推动黑龙江省木材进口贸易可持续发展的对策和建议.     

俄罗斯森林资源与木材生产分析

根据俄罗斯森林资源与木材生产发展状况, 探讨了俄罗斯森林资源的特点, 总结了俄罗斯木材生产面临的主要问题, 提出了俄罗斯林产品的品种和产量走势, 分析了俄罗斯森工行业和木材生产的发展机遇, 展望了中俄森林资源合作开发与林产品贸易和林业双边合作的发展前景。     

中美贸易争端对我国木材进出口贸易企业的影响

在我国"走出去"与"引进来"战略推动下,我国木材产业的发展持续加快,进出口贸易水平显著提升。中美贸易争端的不断升级,给我国木材进出口带来了一定的压力与挑战。阐述了中美贸易争端基本现状,分析了我国木材进出口贸易企业所受到的影响,在此基础上提出了相关应对策略,这对于我国木材企业更好地融入国际市场,提升市场竞争力具有重要意义。     

中俄木材贸易及俄罗斯木材检疫

概述了近年来中俄木材贸易情况,及我国对进境俄罗斯木材检疫和除害处理措施,并论述了其优缺点,提出在当前中俄木材贸易日益繁荣的情况下,加强对进境木材的检疫和除害处理的重要性。     

世界木材市场浅析

世界原木出口量呈下降趋势;加工的半成品、产品出口量呈增长趋势。木材出口国和地区为北美、欧洲、苏联和东南亚,而进口国和地区主要有日本、欧洲、中国和南朝鲜。文中研究了木材贸易与经济周期的关系以及贸易保护主义和集团化倾向对木材贸易的影响。建议我国木材进出口应实行多元化和协调一致共同对外的方针,同时要优化木材产品结构并抑制某些木材产品的过热消费。     

Tropical Timber Trade Flows in P.R. China

The historical transition of timber distribution pattern in China was presented firstly with main parts of timber flows in China, which included timber markets, timber transport system and regulations of timber transport. Based on the overview on tropical timber flows in China, the trade flows of tropical timber from production and imports of tropical timber to export of tropical timber products were analyzed by vivid illustrations. At the same time, problems in timber trade flows in China were analysed in the end.     

中国对东北亚木质林产品出口增长模式分析——基于三元边际模型的测算

东北亚地区是中国重要的木质林产品出口市场,但近年来中国对东北亚地区木质林产品出口增幅日益减小。文中选取2000-2015年中国对东北亚地区木质林产品出口贸易数据,利用三元边际模型分析中国对东北亚地区木质林产品的出口增长模式。结果表明,在2000-2015年中国对东北亚地区木质林产品的出口增长驱动因素中,出口数量始终是最主要的。为刺激中国对东北亚地区木质林产品出口再增长,应加强国内森林认证体系的发展,坚持林产企业供给侧改革,实现"数量价格双驱动"的出口增长模式。     

中国林业PMI指数先行期测算

利用时差互相关方法分析中国林业PMI测试期数据(FPI指数)与木材产业宏观经济数据之间的领先相关关系, 结合峰谷比较法探究FPI指数中进口指数和出口指数分别与中国木质林产品进出口额之间的领先和滞后关系。研究表明, FPI指数对木材产业宏观经济数据表现出一定的领先相关, FPI的进口指数和出口指数分别领先于木质林产品进出口额1~3个月, 可为今后对木材产业的监测及预警提供参考依据。     

The role of the wood mechanical industry in the Swedish forest industry cluster

The forest and forest products form one of the most important basis for the transfer to a bio-based economy in Sweden. About 75% of the area covered by forest in Sweden is used industrially to produce raw material for the wood-refining industries. Every year, this cluster uses 75 million m³ of roundwood and has an export value of €12 billion. This review paper is devoted to the wood mechanical industry, i.e. the industry which turns the forest into sawn timber, packaging, construction wood, furniture and interior fittings. The sawmills consume about half of the volume of softwood which is felled, and about two-thirds of the sawn timber go to export without any further refining within the country. Nevertheless, in spite of the relatively low degree of refinement in the sawmill and the fact that the sawmills in general over time have a very low profitability, they are responsible for 70–80% of the forest owners' profits on the sale of timber. An increased upgrading of the sawn timber within the country is desirable from a national economic viewpoint – increased employment opportunities, increased export income, etc. It should then in the first place be for products with a higher added value, such as furniture and fittings. Today, the refinement value is 15–20 times higher for products from joinery and furniture industries compared to that of the sawn timber, and the added value of the wood within the building industry is only about 1.5 times.     

美国林化产品出口贸易动态分析

对美国近年来(1994～1999)的主要林化产品出口贸易量进行了分析,发现美国林化产品出口贸易额波动较大,脂松香、松节油类及其深加工产品的贸易额在稳步上升,而萜烯油类等产品贸易量在下降。同时,分析了影响美国林化产品贸易量变化的因素,提出了我国林化企业调整产品结构,扩大国际市场份额的发展方向。     

东北内蒙古地区2010年木材供需预测

预测2010年东北、内蒙古地区木材的供需状况。到2010年区域木材供给量为4808.50万m^3,其中区域木材产量占58%,从俄罗斯进口的木材占42%。木材的需求量为6475.81万m^3,供需缺口达1 667万m^3。不考虑区域外的需求及国外的需求,东北、内蒙古地区的木材供给还是能够满足本地区经济建设需求的。木材供需的缺口对本地区木材需求不会造成太大的影响,但却对其他地区对木材的需求将产生重要影响。对于东北、内蒙古地区而言,俄罗斯远东地区是理想的木材供应基地,应规范企业的对俄木材贸易,将这一地区开发成可持续的木材供应市场。     

中俄两国森林资源现状与木材供求前景分析

俄罗斯森林资源十分丰富,并且主要集中在俄罗斯远东西伯利亚地区。中国对森林资源需求旺盛,并已成为重要的木材消费大国和进口大国。在系统研究中俄两国森林资源状况与木材需求现状的基础上指出,随着经济的发展与环保压力的增加,未来中俄两国在森林资源利用和木材贸易方面将呈现旺盛的发展态势,并认为中国和俄罗斯两国政府和企业将在未来林业经贸合作过程中发挥重要作用。     

国际木材价格波动对我国家具生产企业的影响

家具生产企业是我国制造业的重要组成部分。随着我国家具进出口贸易的不断发展,国际木材价格波动对我国家具生产企业的发展造成了严峻挑战。基于国际木材价格波动现状,分析国外木材原料的价格波动特征对国内木材原料市场异常价格波动带来的影响,以规避潜在的市场风险,促进国内家具企业的发展,在此基础上,有针对性地提出对策建议。     

Price dynamics in the Russian–Finnish roundwood trade

Abstract

This study examines price dynamics in roundwood exports from Russia to Finland, the largest international roundwood trade flow within Europe. The analysis covers six main timber assortments; sawlog and pulpwood dimensions of pine, spruce and birch. The study period, starting from the devaluation of the rouble in August 1998, was characterized by a drastic increase in the volumes of Russian roundwood imported into Finland, and a coinciding structural change in the timber assortment distribution of the Finnish roundwood imports. A basic hypothesis of economic theory, the law of one price, was tested by using quarterly time series and methods of cointegration analysis. According to the cointegration tests, the prices of Finnish and Russian spruce sawlogs have moved closely together. Furthermore, the changes in the prices of spruce sawlogs in the Finnish roundwood market are reflected in the Russian prices and not vice versa. Regarding other timber assortments, price co-movement and consequent market integration was not detected.     

世界木材贸易概述

本文介绍了现行世界木材贸易格局;论述了世界木材贸易基本理论——林产品比较优势原则,并以日本、美国、加拿大林产品贸易为例,分析了木材贸易发生的原因及其影响因素;阐述了东南亚地区近十几年来林产品出口由初级产品向加工成品或半成品发展的变化及所采取的贸易政策;通过分析人工林的发展趋势,展望未来世界木材贸易格局的改变。     

Importance of rubberwood in wood export of Malaysia and Thailand

We examined the contribution of rubberwood to the timber export markets of Malaysia and Thailand. In Malaysia, rubberwood has grown from 26% of total exported wood products in 1998 to 35% in 2007. A high proportion of furniture products (80%) is rubberwood, whereas the contribution of rubberwood to other wooden products is less than 20%. Only 10% of sawn timber and logs is rubberwood. In Thailand, rubberwood contributes to around 60% of total exported wood products, arising from a high share of not only furniture products (70%) but also other wood products (around 50%) and sawn timber and logs, which have increased in share from 40% in 1998 to 79% in 2007. We conclude that the high proportion of rubberwood products in the wood export markets of these two countries is a result of: (1) scarcity of raw wood materials because of strict controls on the logging of natural forests; and (2) governmental support to rubberwood production, including financial support to rubber planters and technical assistance to downstream timber processors.     

木材加工自动化设备的进出口贸易策略分析

介绍了我国木材加工自动化设备进出口贸易概况,从国际贸易壁垒、单边主义以及贸易保护主义等方面,详细分析了木材加工自动化设备进出口贸易存在问题,在此基础上,提出一系列促进木材加工自动化设备的进出口发展策略。